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Economic Survey
2011 Vol.28 Issue.2
Published 2011-03-06
Finacial Economic
1
The Nonlinear Characteristics of China’s Money Demand Function--An Empirical Research on the Basis of STAR Model
ZHANG Lei, ZHANG Zong-Cheng
Using the STAR Model, the authors made a nonlinear empirical test of the error correction model for the money demand of our country. The result proved that the model showed a significant nonlinear characteristic. The form of it was ESTAR, and the conversion variable was the real national income lagged behind for a period. The conversion rate was significant but slow and the slope value of the transfer function was -2.64. The conclusions were consistent with the economic development in our country, reflecting the time lag of the control of monetary policy. The authors suggest using nonlinear model to study money demand function, accelerating the transition rate of monetary policy in different mechanisms and reducing time lag
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 1-5 [
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On the Theoretical Logic of Market Economy and Just Harmonious Development
LI Jian
Justice is the core value of morality and one of hot topics in all kinds of fields nowadays. Although the academic field has accepted that market economy and just harmonious development are the core for building a harmonious society, the research into the theoretical logic of market economy and just harmonious development is not enough yet. From the perspective of ethical economics, the authore laborates that the theoretical logic of market economy and just harmonious development lies in the reciprocal dimension between market economy and justice in building a harmonious society, or the organic unity between the justice of market economy and the economic nature of justice
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 6-9 [
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A Rational Forecast of the Replacement Rate of Renewable Energy in China
SONG Hui，WEI Xiao-ping
The replacement rate of renewable energy is the percentage of renewable energy consumption to all primary energy consumption. Based on the replacement rate of 2005, using the GM(1,1) model, the authors analyze the replacement rate of renewable energy during the period of 2006-2009, forecasts the renewable energy consumption during the period of 2010 – 2020 and finds that the renewable energy replacement rate will reach 13.67% in 2020. To reach the goal of 15% of renewable energy consumption to all primary energy consumption in 2010, the government of China should gradually strengthen the incentive policies of renewable energy supply in the constant readjustment
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 10-13 [
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Fiscal Policy, Income Distribution and Economic Growth--An Explanation Based on Wealth Effects
ZOU Wei-xing, Fang Lin
High growth rate, high investment rate and low consumption rate are three typical characteristics of China's macro economy. This paper researches economic growth from the perspectives of the wealth effects, fiscal policy and income distribution. We find that tax rate, distribution number to a person of government transfer payments, government transfer payments, government consumption, the weight of capital in the utility, externalities of government investment, income levels and income distribution all have influence on economic growth rate and consumption–capital ratio. By quantitative researching, it is showed that the rate of economic growth can be explained by Gini coefficient, investment, government consumption, tax, government transfer payments and government investment in the long run|and its fluctuations in the short-term can be decided by Gini coefficient, investment and government investment. Overall, this paper provides an explanation on the typical features of China's macro economy
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 14-19 [
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A Research into Chinese Economic Fluctuation in the Stochastic Monetary Shock
LIU Fang
Preceding constraint of cash exists obviously in the resident consumption of China. Introducing monetary shock into the real business cycle model through the preceding constraint of cash conforms to the operating features of Chinese economy. The author analyses the influence of exogenous monetary shock on the fluctuation of Chinese economy based on the RBC theory. The study shows that money issuance shocks mainly affect the fluctuations of consumption, investment, and inflation rate and the fluctuation amplitudes of other economic variables remain basically unchanged
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 20-24 [
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Political Decision-Making, Public Expenditure in Rural Areas and Income Gap between Urban and Rural Areas
XIA Long， FENG Tao
According to time series data from 1978 to 2008, the authors make a quantitative analysis of the relationship between public expenditure in rural areas and income gap between urban and rural areas. The conclusion is that the widening in the gap between urban and rural areas will cause the passive increase in the public expenditure in rural areas, but the passive increase in public expenditure in rural areas can’t shorten the income gap between urban and rural areas. Only the active increase in public expenditure in rural areas can shorten the income gap between urban and rural areas
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 25-29 [
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An Empirical Research into the Effect of the Trade Structure Similarity in Developing Countries on Trade Performance
ZHANG Ya-bin , CHE Ming , YI Xian-zhong
Similar export trade structure in developing countries will result in the increase in the supply of similar products and deteriorate the performance of foreign trade development. The panel co-integration test based on the data of42 developing countries in which the trade terms deteriorated during the period of 1995-2008 shows that the trade structure similarity in developing countries deteriorates the price trade terms and lowers the income trade terms. Therefore, in order to improve the trade performance, developing countries should adjust their trade development strategies, decrease the export structure similarity and avoid excessive competition
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 30-34 [
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A Research into the Influencing Factors of China’s International Service Outsourcing Being at the Low Level of the Value Chain
YANG Wei-wen, FENG Xiao
On the basis of the research into the existing literature and the time series data from 1995 to 2008, the authors made a positive analysis of the six factors that may influence China’s service outsourcing industry being at the low level of the value chain. The influencing factors include service development level, scientific research ability and level, protection of intellectual property rights, RMB appreciation, awarding enterprises’ domestic pressure and labor costs. The results show that the development level of service industry, RMB appreciation, the pressure from awarding countries and labor costs have significant effect on the low development level of the service outsourcing industry of our country, but the other factors’ effect is inconspicuous
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 35-39 [
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An Empirical Comparative Research into the Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation of East Asia and Latin America
WANG San-xing , DU Hou-wen
The research begins with an analysis of the foreign exchange reserve accumulation of East Asia and Latin America. The result of the analysis shows that the actual variables such as the trade volume enlargement and current account balance accumulation caused by global industry conversion are the main determining factors of emerging markets′ foreign exchange reserve increase. The reason why East Asian has more foreign exchange reserves than Latin America is the difference in the development modes of the two regions. East Asia’s export-oriented strategy which originated from mercantilism can not only enlarge export share of the region, but also attain more stable current account balances than Latin America. Nevertheless, the new industrialized economies of East Asia accumulate foreign exchange reserves for the purpose of precautionary responsiveness to crisisto a certain extent
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 40-44 [
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A Study on East Asian Currency Game from the Perspective of Switching Costs
SONG Xiao-ling
From the perspective of switching costs theory, using mathematical analysis and game theory and combining qualitative with quantitative method, the author studies East Asian currency game. The monetary cooperation is a win-win game for East Asian countries|the game between China, Japan and other East Asian countries is a "boxed pig game" and China and Japan will gain more benefits from the monetary cooperation|The game between China and Japan is a similar "chicken game", and the competition around dominant currency is inevitable during the monetary cooperation. China should actively promote East Asian monetary cooperation and the course of RMB internationalization and strive to make RMB the dominant currency in East Asia
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 45-49 [
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A Research into the Formation and Evolution of Commercial Space Clusters
TANG Hong-tao
Commercial cluster is the most striking phenomenon in urban commercial development. The author explored the formation mechanism of commercial space clusters from the aspects of production divisibility, value chain and differentiation and tried to use Logistic growth model to simulate the commercial space cluster evolution model and set up a multiple-industry commercial cluster evolution model initially.
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 50-54 [
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An Analysis of Chinese Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Variance, Regional Difference and Their Influencing Factors
ZHENG Yun
The growth in Chinese agricultural total factor productivity is shown in the continuous technological progress during the whole period on one hand and the deviation of technological progress and technological efficiency during different periods on the other hand. Only in the recent two years have the technological progress and technological efficiency grown at the same time|prominent differences exist in the agricultural total factor productivity of the east, middle and west regions. The government public investment in agriculture and rural areas, industrialization level, external openness level and marketization level, etc. are the basic reasons for the differences.
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 55-59 [
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60
Analysis of the Peasant Households’ Technical Efficiency in Northwestern China--An Investigation Based on Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia
MAN Ming-Jun ，ZHOU Min-lian ，LI Tong-Sheng
Based on the investigation data from the peasant households of Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia, the authors analyze the production technical efficiency of households planting different varieties of crops and their differences, then review the impact of agricultural elements allocation on technical efficiency, and at last validates the relationship between households’ technical preferences and their agricultural element endowment from the perspective of peasant wills. The results show that there is an obvious difference in the technical efficiencies of peasant households’ planting different varieties of crops in northwest areas. The technical efficiency of the households planting economic crops is obviously less than that of the households planting cereals crops. In addition, the distribution difference of technical efficiency of the former is bigger. The capital and labor force inputs of households are commonly saturated in production, and the scarcity of land restricts the improvement in technical efficiency. The sample peasant households’ preference to technological demand accords with “technology inducement theory”.
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 60-64 [
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Evaluation of Modern Service Industry Development in Henan Province and Research into Its Countermeasures
ZHANG Hua-ping
Based on Henan provincial conditions and expert opinions, the author constructs an evaluation index system of the development level of modern service industry in Henan province and establishes a corresponding evaluation model with factor analysis method to evaluate objectively the development level of modern service industry in Henan province. Meanwhile, the author uses related statistical data to make a quantitative analysis of the status quo of modern service industry in Henan province. Through further comparison, the author explores the gaps and their reasons and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures.
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 65-69 [
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Actual Controller Properties, Governance Environment and Private Benefits of Controllers
WAN Li-quan
The author measures the private benefits of controllers by using different calculating formulas for the negotiating transfer in different pricing, divides actual controllers into state-control and non-state-control ones and analyzes the control right transfer events from 2003 to 2008. The result shows that the private benefits of controllers in listed companies are at a high level but is lowered after the split share reform|The private benefits of controllers in government-controlled companies is less than the private benefits of controllers in non- government-controlled companies|the better the governance environment, the lower the private benefits of controller
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 70-75 [
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Share Ratio of Large Shareholders, Investor Protection and Tunneling Behavior--Evidence from Private Listed Companies in Shanghai Securities Market
ZHANG Xue-hong, ZHANG Ren-jun
Using the tunneling model of LLSV for reference, the authors develop a mathematical model to examine the inherent relationship among share ratio of the large shareholders, investor protection and tunneling behavior and make an empirical analysis on the basis of the affiliated transaction data of the private listed companies in Shanghai Securities Market from 2007 to 2009. The result shows that the relationship between the share ratio of the large shareholders and tunneling behavior presents a “U” shape curve and the tunneling behavior is more serious when there are controlling large shareholders|the improvement in legal environment can restrict tunneling behavior effectively but the restriction of credit on tunneling behavior is not obvious
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 76-81 [
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An Empirical Research into the Influence of Technological Progress on Laborers’ Quality in China
ZHAO Li, JIANG Jun-wu
Using the data from 1985 to 2008 and the methods of co-integration, error correction model, Granger causality test, etc., the authors analyze the relationship between technological progress and laborers’ quality in China. The empirical analysis shows that technological progress has played a positive role inlabor education per capita，and a significant role in promoting quality of laborers. Therefore, China should strengthen technological introduction and innovation, and in the process of technology introduction, emphasize technological digestion and absorption from imitation to innovation, and thereby increase autonomous R&D capabilities. At the same time, China should increase investment in human capital and strengthen human capital accumulation
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 82-85 [
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An Assessment of the Overwork of the Laborers of Our Country and Its Empirical Research
WANG Dan
There isn’t a unified assessment standard and system of karoshi in the academic circle of our country, which hinders the development of karoshi. Constructing the system for the assessment of karoshi should be based on the connotation and constituent elements of overwork and follow the two dimensions of the fatigue and working status of laborers. The assessment indexes of overwork, the pathological symptoms of “Karoshi” and working status are the “core contents” of the indexes of assessment system. Japanese fatigue degree self-test scale provides a framework and grading basis
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 86-90 [
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Heterogeneous Floating Population and Wage Determination--Evidence from the Survey Data of Beijing in 2006
YIN Zhi-feng CHEN Ming GUO Lin
Based on Beijing’s 1 ‰ floating population survey in 2006, the authors review the floating people’s wage level and its determinants. The authors divide the floating population into the two categories of non-employees and employees from the perspective of employment type (employer, self-support laborer and employee). The wage determining equation of non-employee floating population has the obvious property of sample self-selection, but the wage determining equation of employees doesn’t have the obvious property of sample self-selection In the regression equation, each variant follows the traditional empirical studies. The wage determinants of every type of floating population have the property of heterogeneity to a certain extent
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 91-95 [
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The Characteristics of Knowledge Capability and Its Cultivation Mechanismin Different Open Innovation Process
ZHANG Yong-cheng |HAO Dong-dong
Knowledge capability is the key for enterprises to attain open innovation successfully. It is a dynamic ability system that consists of creation capability, reformation capability, scanning capability, absorption capabitity, internalization ability, absorptive capability, etc. Different types of open innovation process have diverse demands for knowledge capability. Therefore, it’s necessary for the enterprises that implement open innovation to enhance their learning ability and relation ability through adjusting their strategy, structure and culture and other functions in order to cultivate their own knowledge capability and in turn improve the performance of open innovation
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 96-100 [
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An Analysis of the Problems of Agency among Shareholders in the Broad Sense of the Corporate Governance--Taking Shide Investment Corporation Reducing the Shareholding of Ningxia Dayuan Chemical Co. Ltd. as an Example
GAO Yu, REN Bao-ping
The event of Shide Investment Corporation reducing the shareholding of the Ningxia Dayuan Chemical Co. Ltd. indicates that the theory of corporate governance, which focuses on the agency problem between shareholders and managers, can not explain the factual issues in China’s corporate governance very well. So it is necessary to research corporate governance in the broad sense of all parties in the corporate contracts of enterprises claiming the right of control. In the issue of the management control, there is principal-agency relationship between large shareholders and small shareholders and serious agency problems. Under the asymmetric information, the rent-seeking action of large shareholders will do harm to the income of small shareholders, the development of the capital market, and the income distribution. Therefore the relationship among the interest groups within shareholders should become a very important content of the corporate governance
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 101-106 [
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An Empirical Research into the “Bottom-up” Reputation Assessment in Public Hospitals in China--A Case Study of Nanjing City
GAO Shan, SHI Jian-wei
From the perspective of the principles of objectiveness and comprehensiveness，the present hospital evaluation implemented by the government is ineffective. From the perspective of the patients, the authors propose the “bottom-up” reputation assessment framework of hospitals on the basis of public benefit. Furthermore, CFA and SEM are used to testify the internal structure and relations. The results show that besides treatment effects, emotional appeal, economic expenditure of patients, hospital development and social responsibility are also important elements influencing the reputation of hospitals
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 107-112 [
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113
Political Connection and Cost of Equity Capital of Private Enterprises from the Perspectives of Law and Economics
ZHAO Feng ,, GAO Ming-hua ， MA Guang-ming
From the perspective of law and economics, the authors construct a model to research the logical relationship among political connection, legal system and the cost of equity capital. The findings indicate that political connection and equity capital cost are negatively correlated, and when the legal system is not perfect, political connection can protect private enterprises’ property rights and reduce their equity capital cost|there exists a negative correlation between legal protection level and private enterprises’ equity capital cost, and the improvement of legal protection level can bring private enterprises and external investors a win-win situation|political connection and legal system can be substituted by each other, and constant improvement in the legal system can reduce the function of political connection. The results provide decision making foundation for strengthening the national legal system
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 113-117 [
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118
An Empirical Research into the Relationship between the Stock Price of Agricultural Listed Companies and the Price of Related Agricultural Products--Empirical Study about Forage and Livestock Product Prices and the Stock Prices of Livestock Listed Companies
SUN Zhi-Hong , LU Xin-sheng
Based on price transmission theory, using VAR model, the authors empirically analyse the relationship between forage and livestock product prices and the stock price of livestock listed companies. The results of co-integration analysis suggest that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. Granger-causality test suggests that the average forage and livestock product of the whole country is the Granger causality of the stock prices of livestock listed companies
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 118-122 [
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An Empirical Research into the Appraisal of the Competitiveness of Agricultural Listed Companies
JIANG Zhao
The author constructed a comprehensive appraisal index system for the competitiveness of agricultural listed companies of our country form the two aspects of survival and development. On the basis of it, the author analyzes empirically the competitiveness of the 40 agricultural sample listed companies by utilizing the factor analysis method. The comprehensive competitiveness appraisal result shows that there are significant gaps in scores of the comprehensive competitiveness of the top 5 companies. And there is no significant gap in scores of the comprehensive competitiveness of most of the other companies. Further delaminating appraisal result shows that there is no significant gap in the survival ability of sample companies, but there is significant gap in the development competitiveness
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 123-127 [
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128
Analysis of Agricultural Risk Classification and the Applicability of Risk Management Tool
ZENG Yu-zhen ,, MU Yue-ying
By combining the various phenomena of agricultural risks, the author sex plained the mutual relationships among agricultural risks in market economy and analyzed the applicability of agricultural risk management tool and the relationship between them. The variety and relevancy of agricultural risks determine that the selection of management tools should not rely only on the phenomena of risks and losses in the practice of agricultural risk management. Instead the proximate cause or the combination of proximate causes should be explored and the corresponding risk management tool or combination of tools should be selected
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 128-132 [
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133
FDI, Appreciation of RMB and Policy Selection--An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model
LIAO JIA
In the light of the opinion that the appreciation of RMB will lead to the decrease in FDI inflow, the author added to gravity model the variables of the cost of labor, the cost of resources, the trade aggregate and the effect of exchange rate to do the research. The analysis result shows that exchange rate is the primary factor influencing FDI, the economic aggregate and international economic cycles are also important influencing factors of FDI inflow, and at the same time the effect of the cost of labor is conspicuous, too
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 133-137 [
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143
A Research into the Relationship among Excess Liquidity, Excessive Foreign Exchange Reserve and Inflation--Evidence from the Monthly Data of Our lountry from 1997 to 2009
CHEN Wen-zheng
The authors discusses excess liquidity and its representation in the condition of excessive foreign exchange reserve, and according to the principle mechanism of the supply and demand model of economics, makes a theoretical analysis of the causes of excess liquidity and inflation in the condition of excessive foreign exchange reserve. The author makes an empirical research of it with VAR model on the basis of the monthly data from 1997 to 2009. The research demonstrates that the increase in foreign exchange reserve really has impact on the prices of our country, but the impact is small. However, the change in exchange rate will cause great fluctuation of the prices of our country
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 143-147 [
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148
Differentiation and Analysis of the Rationality of Long-Term Loans and Short-term Savings from the Perspective of Principal-Agent
SHEN Jian-wen, WANG Li-ping
There exists the phenomenon of both current account and medium-long term loans in the bank capital operation, which has become one of theoretical focus subjects. The authors apply the principal-agent theory and hold that the overall objective functions of the government and bank are unified and that the phenomenon is an objective and rational form of compatible incentive-restriction and benign principal-agent mechanism. It is less likely to cause liquidity risk fundamentally. The authors also put forward proposals about continuing bank reform to guard against moral risk and adverse selection
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 148-152 [
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A Qualitative Probe into the Co-ownership of Condominium Ownership--From the Perspective of its Quality and the Reality of Our Country
CHEN Xiao-Lin
Scientifically determining the nature of co-ownership of condominium ownership is the premise to construct the law of co-ownership of condominium ownership, but the determination of its nature has always been a disputable topic in the academic field. Either theoretically or practically, the existing qualitative researches lack both the characteristics and theory of the co-ownership of condominium ownership and the rational measurement of the rights and responsibilities of co-owners, and don’t conform to reality of our country. Analyzed from its feature and reality of our country, the co-ownership of condominium ownership is not co-ownership, joint ownership or quasi-joint ownership, but a new and intricate co-ownership.
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 153-156 [
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Comments on the Agricultural Environment Policy in the process of Trade Liberalization of International Agricultural Products
XIA Zhi-hong
In the complicated environment age of mutual reliance among globalization, sustainable development and mechanism, because of the uncertainties of the exceptional terms in GATT articles 20(b) and (g) and the defects of WTO Green Box and the spurs of national interests, the agricultural environment policy is special and different from other general environment policy in the two values of balanced free trade and environment protection. On the basis of analyzing the legislations, practices and the shortcoming of free trade of international agricultural products and agricultural environment policy, the author explores the social environment function of the agricultural multi-function theory in order to realize the win-win of free trade of international agricultural products and agricultural environment protection
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 157-160 [
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138
Organizational Field, Institutional Restriction and Strategic Choice of Banks--An Analysis Based on Organizational Sociology
WU Te, SHI Qu-ping
The authors inspect strategic choice of banks from the perspective of institution theory and with the important strategic choices of the Bank of Communications since its reconstruction, the authors discusses the impact of institutional factors on the strategic choices of enterprises, and tries to propose a “field-institution-strategy interaction model” as a theoretic framework for future researches
2011 Vol. 28 (2): 138-142 [
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