Abstract The replacement rate of renewable energy is the percentage of renewable energy consumption to all primary energy consumption. Based on the replacement rate of 2005, using the GM(1,1) model, the authors analyze the replacement rate of renewable energy during the period of 2006-2009, forecasts the renewable energy consumption during the period of 2010 – 2020 and finds that the renewable energy replacement rate will reach 13.67% in 2020. To reach the goal of 15% of renewable energy consumption to all primary energy consumption in 2010, the government of China should gradually strengthen the incentive policies of renewable energy supply in the constant readjustment
2011, Vol. 28 
