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Economic Survey
2013 Vol.1 Issue.2
Published 2013-03-05
Original Articles
1
Research on Relative Regional Price Level-Based on Panel Threshold Model
LIU Fang
This paper examines real convergence and divergence of China’s regional relate price level by a new panel threshold auto regression model with 1979-2010 panel CPI data. The result shows relative price level convergence occurs in east, west and middle region. The difference of regional relative price level is gradually shrinking in China. It is advised that government establish the unified market by eliminating the market barriers and strengthening regional coordination.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 1-6 [
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The Effects of Central Region’s Public Expenditure Adjustment on Three Dimensions’ Economic Development ——Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of the Six Provinces
LIU Jun-ying
From the perspective of government functions transformation, this paper studies the long-term and short-term relationship between public expenditure adjustment and the level of economic development of the central region from three dimensions, the total economy, industrial structure and urbanization level by analyzing panel data of six provinces in central region with co integration theory and the VECM. The results show that the increase of public expenditure size and adjustment of the structure from economic construction type to public service type contribute to the increase of total economic output in the long term, promote the optimization of industrial structure and improve level of urbanization in central region.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 7-12 [
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3396
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13
Does Preference Competition Really Promote Regional Economic Growth?——An FDI Quality Perspective
YANG Xiao-li, ZHANG Yu, TAN You-chao
FDI amount may have different effects on economic growth in term of capital heterogeneity. Using provincial data from 1998 to 2008, this paper investigates the effects of local governments’ FDI preferences competition for FDI quality as well as its economic growth effects. Empirical results shows that preferential policies increase the amount of FDI but decrease its quality; higher FDI quality pushes economic growth, and the more preferential policies have less positive economic growth effects.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 13-17 [
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18
Labor Costs，Economic Structure and Economic Growth——An Empirical Research on Jiangxi Province
ZHENG Yan-zhi, HUANG Shun-chun
The paper researches the impact of labor cost rising on local economic growth by the Stockhammer-Ederer model econometric analysis. It is found that labor cost rising has a negative effect on investment and a significant positive effect on resident consumption, which will significantly push the total output and economic growth in Jiangxi Province. The pulling effect of labor cost rising on domestic demand shows “U” type change trend. Therefore, the Government should take positive measures to the opportunities and challenges of rising labor costs on economic development adjust economic structure and transform economic growth patterns.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 18-22 [
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23
Influence of Economic Growth, Population and Wages on Employment and Comparisons between Regions
LIU Yu-cheng, TONG Guang-rong
This paper analyzes the influence of economic growth, population and wages on the employment by unit root test, co integration test and panel model test with China’s province-level panel data of 1991-2009. It is found that the influence of economic growth on the employment has apparent regional characteristics and the employment-GDP elasticity has relatively strong negative correlation with the level of economic development; the increase of wages has positive influence on the employment and the employment-wages elasticity has strong positive correlation with the level of economic development; the influence of the change of total population on the employment doesn’t show regional characteristics and there exists weak correlation between the employment-wages elasticity and the level of economic development.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 23-27 [
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3893
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28
The Analysis of Stochastic Factors Impact Effect on the Path of Food Price Fluctuations
LI Jing, NAN Yu
This paper studies the impact effects and path of the random factors on food price fluctuation by analyzing food price fluctuation attributes in China. The results show that domestic natural disasters event not only has significant direct impact effects, but also has significant indirect impact effects on food price fluctuations; And foreign natural disasters and economic crisis does not have a direct impact effects on food price fluctuations, but economic crisis have a significant indirect impact effects by influencing domestic economic and the common price level.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 28-32 [
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33
An Empirical Study on the Influence Factors of Households’ Normal Credit Default
ZHANG Yun-yan, WANG Fang, LUO Jian-chao
The paper analyzes the effect factors of the households’ default of credit on the basis of 400 farmers' questionnaire from Weinan Shanxi by the Variance and Logistic Regression Model. The results show that factors such as education level of the household head, households’ income and the sources, the farming portfplio the credit and debt practices have significant effects for the households' credit default. The farmers' management ability, households’ economic structure, income and the design of the credit products are the key consideration for the default of the credit. It is advised to improve the farmers’ management capabilitiy, enlarge their income sources and improve the financial services.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 33-37 [
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38
The Land Contractual Right Circulation in China:Main Patterns, Operation Conditions and Transaction Cost
QIU Juan-dong, ZHAO Jing-feng
Based on the related references and actual situations in China, the paper analyzes the operation conditions and basic requirements of different patterns of land contrtactual right circlulation by categorizing land contractual right circulation into three different types, namely, directly circulation, government involved circulation and intermediary involved circulation with game Theory analysis. It is shown that the transaction cost of different patterns have the relationship of “directly circulation＞government involved circulation＞intermediary involved circulation”It is concluded that the realistic choice and the only way to reduce the transaction cost of land circulation are to achieve the circulation pattern transfer from directly circulation to government involved circulation, and then intermediary organization involved circulation.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 38-43 [
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44
The Lowest Level Contribution Dilemma in The New Rural Endowment Insurance System——Based on the Investigation of the New Rural Social endowment Insurance in ZhangWu County, Liaoning Province
WANG Guo-hui, CHEN Yang, WEI Hong-mei
With the investigation data of the new rural social endowment insurance in Zhang Wuxian, Liaoning Province, this paper analyses the factors of the new rural social endowment insurance dilemma and tests the factors resulting in the dilemma by discussing the great majority of farmers’ choice of the lowest payment level, which as the consequence, results the system into some plights with the help of the logistic model Measures such as system improvement proposed for sustainabl and healthily development.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 44-48 [
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49
A Research on Impact from Import Technology Diffusion and Indigenous R&D to Environment Regulation: ——Evidence from China’s Industrial Panel Data
WANG Jin, WANG Li-gang
This paper tests the impacts from import technology diffusion and indigenous R&D to environmental regulation by 2003~2010 China’s industrial panel data. The results show that import technology diffusion of cleaning industry has a significant positive effect on environmental regulation, but pollution-intensive industries negative, which in turn drives the whole industrial in significant negative effect. It is found that the higher the industry technical level is, the lower environmental negative effect is. The indigenous R&D has negative effect to environment regulation, but second R&D has positive effect.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 49-54 [
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55
An Empirical Study on Institutional Distance and Foreign Trade Flows of Our Country ——by Trade Gravity Model
KAN Da-xue, LV Lian-jv, LUO Liang-wen
The paper analyzes the effect institutional distance on China’s foreign trade flow with the panel data between 1996 to 2008. It is found that institutional distance has positive effect on China’s foreign trade flow while the square of institutional distance has negative effect on China’s foreign trade flow and the relationship between the institutional distance and China’s foreign trade flow takes U shape. Further empirical study is made on the sub-index of institutional distance to China’s foreign trade flows accordingly.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 55-60 [
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61
The Embodied Carbon Emission of Sino-Japan Trade ——an Analysis on Cross-country IO Table
ZHANG Lu
Trade is closely related to the environment. Based on the input and output model, the paper analyzes the CO
2
emission of 24 industrial sectors between China and Japan by estimating a net exports from China to Japan between 1990 and 2000 and refining the result to industrial sector level. On average, the Chinese economy is confirmed to be more carbon-intensive. In addition, scenario comparison shows that the bilateral trade helps the overall reduction of CO
2
emissions. Japan should be responsible for some of China’s emissions, while in terms of CO
2
emission reduction opportunities, most sectors of Chinese industry benefit from learning Japanese technologies to produce lower carbon intensities.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 61-66 [
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4127
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67
FDI and Inhomogeneous Human Capital and Economic Growth ——Based on the Analysis of Data from Singapore
ZHAO Li-bin
The paper makes an empirical analysis on the data of Singapore with verification. It is found that Inhomogeneous human capital level is key factors in introducing FDI and absorption the spill of FDI technology which in return further improves its inhomogeneous human capital level and pushes technological progress and economic growth, and eventually puts the FDI and inhomogeneous human capital level in the model as the source of the technological progress and economic growth.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 67-71 [
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72
The Mechanism of Environmental Regulation Impact on the Transition of Industry Structure
MEI Guo-ping, GONG Hai-lin
The paper perspectively studies the effect mechanism of environmental regulation on the transition of industry structure by entry barriers, technical innovation, and international trade with industry economical thorery. It is found that extension or intension development path of environmental regulation promotes the transition of industrial structure. China’s provincial panel data shows the interval of environment regulation promotes the industrial structure optimization and upgrading. At present China’s industrial structure still is in extensive development stage.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 72-76 [
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77
The Advantage industrial Choice of Accepting Industrial Transfer Based on Integration of Industry Chain in Central China
LI Xin-an
With the transfer of industry and regional industrial structure adjustment, it is urgent for the central region in China to accept Industrial transfer to rise abruptly. Taking central manufacturing industry as an example, this paper analyses the advantage of 20 concrete manufacturing industries in central rrgion. It is found that the advantage of each province’s manufacturing industry will increase the chance of Industrial transfer in the manufacturing industry. It is important to push forward structure adjustment and promote industrial transfer level and ability of the central region each province in China.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 77-82 [
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83
Differences and Enlightenment in Understanding the Factors of Traditional Enterprise Transformation and Upgrading ——Based on Comparison among Governments, Corporations and Banks
XIONG Yong-qing, CHEN Jiang-yong
This paper analyses the main factors and different interest’s expectations among governments, enterprises and banks about traditional enterprise transformation and upgrading by constructing a relational model between factors and performance of restructing and upgrading together with the data of questionnaire survey with the help of equation model maximum likelihood estimation method for statistic analysis. The result shows that there are differences about evaluation on importance of traditional enterprise transformating and upgrading among governments, corporations and banks. Accordingly, proposals made to promote traditional enerprise transformating and upgrading.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 83-88 [
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89
The Effects of Cause-Related Marketing on Profitability: In Perspective of Donation
ZHANG Li, ZHENG Ling
With the panel data of China’s 345 listed corporations over the period from 2009 to 2011, this paper analyzes the relation between cause-related marketing and profitability by OLS model, fixed effects model and random effective model. The results show significant positive correlation between cause-related marketing and profitability of the listed companies with the measurement of ROA, ROE, and EPS. In general, there is simultaneous causality between cause-related marketing and profitability.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 89-94 [
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95
A Research on the Asymmetric Relationship between Executive Compensation and Luck
HAN Jin-hong, LIU Xi-you
The paper researches the relationship between executive compensation and their luck by smapling the listing companies from 2001 to 2007. It is foud that executive compensation is positively associated with luck. During period of distinguishing industry overall performance declining, the relationship between executive compensation and luck is unsymmetrical, and this asymmetry exists only in the state-controlled companies. The establishment of the Remuneration Committee can effectively suppress the non-symmetry.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 95-99 [
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100
Corporations’ Tactical Political Connection under the Nonlinear View: a Study Based on Private Companies’ Panel Data
WANG Xu
In nonlinearity view, the paper studies the relationships between private corporations’ PC scale and financial performance and governance level by PC index. An upside down “U”-shaped relationships between PC scale and financial performance as well as governance level in private compnies have been found, which proves that there does exist an optimal PC scale maximizing both financial performance and governance level. The conclusion manifests that private companies are able to perform tactical PC behavior so as to avoid financial and governing risk with efficient rescource allocation for a sustainable development.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 100-104 [
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105
Capital Structure Affect on Corporation Value in Transition Economy ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of China’s Listed Companies
LI Yong, LI Peng
The paper discusses the impact of capital structure on corporate value in transition economy by smapling panel data. It is shown that capital structure of Chins’s listed companies has positive effects on corporate value remarkably. Furthermore, other factors such as state-owned shares ratio, centrality of stock ownership and company scale also affect corporate value in some degree. Moreover, cross-section fixed effects and period fixed effects are a plus.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 105-110 [
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111
Annual Financial Restatements, Earnings Persistence and Investment Portfolio Return
WANG Bin
This paper investigates the difference of earnings persistence between corporations with and without restating 2006-2008 annual financial reports. Empirical results show that earnings persistence of corporations with financial restatements is better than others. Without regard to relevant costs, the trading of shares with financial restatements and without financial restatements lead to an annual return of about 6%.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 111-115 [
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116
A Study on the Impact of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on the China’s Price Level ——Based on Co integration Analysis and State Space Model
ZHENG Li-lin
The international cruel oil price Fluctuations has impact on domestic economy from several mechanisms included supply and demand of product and industries transmission and monetary policy. This paper builds a state space model with variable coefficients to describe the dynamic relationship by testing variables stability and co integration with monthly data between 1994 and 2011. The results show that the international crude oil prices fluctuations do affect CPI and PPI. The impact of domestic price level during the period of rising oil price is bigger than the effect size during the period of declining oil price. And the impact for oil price fluctuations on PPI is stronger than on CPI.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 116-120 [
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121
Financial Development, Foreign Direct Investment and Firms’ R&D InvestmentAn Empirical Study Based on provincial Panel Data
RAN Guang-he, ZHANG Bing, PANG Xin-jun
This paper tests the overall and regional impacts of China’s financial development and foreign direct investment effected on firms’ R&D investment by sampling the panel data in 1998～2010 from China’s 30 provinces. The results show that financial development and foreign direct investment positively and significantly promote R&D investment of domestic enterprises with obvious regional differences.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 121-126 [
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127
Fiscal Decentralization, Governmental Incentives and Environmental Pollution Abatement
LIU Qi
This paper studies local governmental incentives affect under fiscal decentralization on pollution Abatement by econometric mode with the provincial panel data. It is found that with the incentives of GDP, fiscal decentralization increases the industrial pollution emissions and reduces fiscal expenditure of the environmental pollution abatement remarkably, economic and fiscal revenue growth can not change the situation; Moreover, the deterioration in environmental pollution increase the difficulty of environmental pollution abatement with the process of industrialization and Urbanization. FDI does not necessarily result in environmental deterioration. Environmental improvement relies on the appropriate adjustments of the local governments’ assessment mechanism.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 127-132 [
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133
Actual Impact of China’s Tax Reform on Investment in Equipment——Based on Random Forest Method
LIU Ruo-hong, SHI Yan-ping
Based on the 2002-2011 financial data of China’s Ashare listed company and the appropriate correction of new classical investment theory model, the paper empirically studies the actual effect on enterprise investment of new enterprise income tax reform in 2008 and VAT reform in 2009 by random forest method. Research indicates the twice tax reforms strengthen the stability of China’s tax policy, increase industry gap of enterprise tax burden, and narrow the gap of region and enterprise property. The results enhance the enterprise’s rational expectations to tax policy, gain game space among enterprises, tax department and local government. The necessary measures should be taken to ensure the rationality of the tax system and the fairness of tax law enforcement.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 133-137 [
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138
Research on Financial Development, Financial Constraints and R&D Investment Efficiency of Hi-tech Enterprises
ZHAI Shu-ping, GU Qun
On the base of establishing financial development index and its structural indices, this paper empirically tests the impacts of financial development on releasing the financial constraints of hi-tech enterprises and their R&D investment efficiency. The result shows that financial constraints exist widely in China’s hi-tech enterprises. Financial development can release the financial constraints of hi-tech enterprises, and further promote the increase of their R&D investment efficiency. But the impacts of financial intermediary development are significantly higher than that of the stock market development. In addition, the effects of financial development on state-owned hi-tech enterprises are more significant in terms of releasing financial constraints and promoting R&D investment efficiency. It concludes that it's beneficial to improve the financial environment and optimize the capital allocation by improving the policy environment of financial constraints and developing multi-level capital markets.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 138-143 [
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144
“Adverse Selection” Problem of Industrial Injury Insurance: the Inner Logic and Empirical Analysis
WANG Zeng-wen
The empirical study of the paper shows that it is vital to set up incentive mechanism by the rate combination of industrial injury insurance premium difference against the game theory between government and enterprises in order to provide solution for the current problem of adverse selection of industrial injury in China.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 144-149 [
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150
Risk Transmission and Volatility Spillover under Subprime Crisis：Evidence from Gold, Oil and US Dollar Markets
GONG Yu-ting
The paper analyzes the risk transmission mechanism of the subprime crisis by comparing the dynamic linkage among gold, oil and US dollar markets in 2008 subprime crisis with Granger causality It is found that the risk of the subprime crisis spreads from US exchange and gold markets to oil market. The trivariate vector error correction (VEC) model analysis shows that there is one cointegration relation among gold, oil price and dollar index before the subprime crisis, but they are not cointegrated after the shock of the crisis. Empirical results indicate that the subprime crisis not only drives up the volatilities in these three markets, but also makes the risk spillover effects significant.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 150-154 [
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155
A Research on the Underlying Stocks Liquidity and Shareholder’s Wealth Effects of Index Revisions: Evidence from SSE 50 Index
ZHU Wei, HE Lin-yun, CHEN Tian-tian, SHI Guo-qing
This paper analyze the effect of index revisions on the underlying stocks liquidity and shareholder’s wealth effect with events analysis by sampling SSE 50 Index from 2005 to 2011 and explores the influence factors. The results show that there exists the index sample effect in SSE 50 Index in China, but the effect of index revisions on the Stock Liquidity is significantly better than the influence of Shareholders’ Wealth Effect; the liquidity of inside index listed company is better than the outside index listed company. Besides, that the impacts of company size, liquidity, and profitability and growth ability are not very big to the Stock Liquidity and Shareholders’ Wealth Effect in short term. But the companies with great growth ability under the effect of index revisions, the liquidity of its stocks have been strengthened.
2013 Vol. 1 (2): 155-160 [
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2017
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