A Study on the Impact of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on the China’s Price Level ——Based on Co integration Analysis and State Space Model
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A Study on the Impact of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on the China’s Price Level ——Based on Co integration Analysis and State Space Model
ZHENG Li-lin
(1.Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China; 2.AnHui Finance and Economics University, Bengbu 233030, China）
Abstract The international cruel oil price Fluctuations has impact on domestic economy from several mechanisms included supply and demand of product and industries transmission and monetary policy. This paper builds a state space model with variable coefficients to describe the dynamic relationship by testing variables stability and co integration with monthly data between 1994 and 2011. The results show that the international crude oil prices fluctuations do affect CPI and PPI. The impact of domestic price level during the period of rising oil price is bigger than the effect size during the period of declining oil price. And the impact for oil price fluctuations on PPI is stronger than on CPI.
ZHENG Li-Lin. A Study on the Impact of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on the China’s Price Level ——Based on Co integration Analysis and State Space Model. Economic Survey, 2013, 1(2): 0116.
2013, Vol. 1 
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