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Economic Survey
2011 Vol.28 Issue.1
Published 2011-01-06
Finacial Economic
1
A Research into the E-Commerce Market in the Context of Adverse Selection-—From the Perspective of Information Economics
PAN Yong
When people are enjoying the convenience of the internet, they are up against a predicament: the informational asymmetry from the qualitative uncertainty is getting worse because of the virtual reality in the e-commerce marketing. Trying to reduce the adverse selection in the cyber market is the inevitable requirement to improve e-business market efficiency fully. Based on the classical adverse selection principle put forward by American economist George Akerlof, the author builds the adverse selection model and the double market adverse selection model. From the data of taobao.com, the author demonstratively analyzes the indigenous character and existing issues. Finally the author puts forward some suggestions to counteract the adverse selection.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 1-8 [
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An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship among Household Debt, Fluctuation of Housing Price and Consumption in China
GUO Xin hua, HE Ya fei
Using the time series data from 1997 to 2009, the authors analyze the dynamic relationship among household debt, housing price and consumption. The result indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among household debt, housing price and consumption in the long term|the fluctuation of housing price has a positive and significant effect on consumption, while the effect of household debt on consumption is insignificant|when the household debt deviates from the short-term fluctuation to long-term equilibrium, the readjustment will convert non-equilibrium to equilibrium at minus 0.42. In order to stimulate consumption, the authors put forward the relevant policy, such as accelerating the construction of finance market and attaching importance to the wealth effect of house and allocating household assets rationally.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 9-13 [
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Economic growth, Savings Structure and Income Distribution--A Research into the Income Distribution Structure in China
YAN Su
On the basis of the disposable income of urban and rural residents published by the State Statistic Bureau, the author measures the tendency of the change in the share of resident disposable income in GDP from 1978 to 2009. Applying “Kaldor Model of economic growth and income distribution”, the author finds the savings structure change is the main factor which influences the income distribution structure, and the rapid rise of business savings is the main reason that leads to the share of residents, income declining. Moreover, the rapid growth of business savings is the concurrent result of the fiscal and tax system, monetary system and a series of other systems when china moved into “heavy and chemical industries” phase since 2002. Therefore, the radical measure for regulating income distribution structure is to reform the system factor which leads to the business savings growing rapidly.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 14-19 [
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Institutional Factors for the Location Choice of Outward Direct Investment by Chinese Enterprises -—From the Perspective of Investment Motivation
CHEN Li li，LIN Hua
The authors study the impact of institutional factors on the location choice of Chinese enterprises ODI based on the investment motives by using the 275 observation data during 5 years from 55 countries. The finding is that compared with enterprises with other investment motives, Chinese enterprises aimed at getting natural resources, paying less attention to the institutional factors. However, because of the limitations of China's market economy development and the reasons of the enterprises themselves, enterprises aiming at expanding market share or getting strategic assets don’t attach sufficient importance to some institutional factors.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 20-25 [
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An Analysis of the Effect of Shanghai Financial Development on the Economic Growth of the Yangtze Delta Area
YANG Zhi feng
Shanghai financial development and Shanghai economic growth promote each other. Shanghai financial development has greater promotion to Zhejiang economy. However, Zhejiang economic growth has negative effect on Shanghai financial development. Shanghai financial development has no significant influence on Jiangsu economic growth, but Jiangsu economic growth promotes Shanghai financial development.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 26-31 [
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32
The Influence of Trade on the Wages of the Labor Force in China’s Industrial Sectors
NIU Rui
By employing the panel data from Chinese industrial sectors during 1997-2009, the author aims to study the impact of international trade on the wages of skilled and unskilled laborers in different industries. The result indicates that trade increased the wages of skilled laborers in high-tech industry but lowered the wages of unskilled laborers. Meanwhile, trade has also expanded the intra-industry wage gap between skilled and unskilled laborers. The effect of trade depends not only on the proficiency degree of skilled laborers but also on the technical level of the industry.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 32-36 [
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Products Structure, Trade Mode and the Growth Effect of Export Trade--A Quantitative Inspection Based on the Case of Jiangsu Province
LIU Zheng liang
The manufactured product export of Jiangsu can lead to broader economy effect than its primary product export does. Its capital technology-intensive product has a remarkable effect on its economic growth. In the meantime the labor-intensive product starts to have negative effect. The effect of the general trade types and the other types begins to expand and that of the processing trade is becoming weak. The policy should encourage emphasizing the general trade export, extending the value chain of international labor division and boosting the transformation and upgrading of processing trade.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 37-41 [
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An Empirical Analysis of the Comparative Advantage of the Trade between China and EU
YAN Chun rong
The European Union is the most important trade partner of China in recent years. The author uses RCA index to research the general change in the comparative advantages of seven important countries of EU and China respectively and then studies the SITC three digit commodities’ comparative advantages of these countries, elicits the comparative advantage of the trade between China and the main countries of EU and puts forward some suggestions concerning how to promote the trade relationship between China and EU based on the above analysis.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 42-47 [
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Granger Causality Test of Export and Innovation Capability--Based on the Analysis of the Time Series Data in China during 1985～2008
WANG Ming cheng ，
Using the time series data during the period 1985-2008, the author makes a Granger causality test of the trade and innovation in China. Examining the interaction between export and innovation from the aggregate perspective and structure perspective respectively, the author finds that export has positive influence on China's innovation capability of practical technology and has no influence on China's original innovation capability. The reason why export can't improvee China's innovation capability rests with our export pattern and its incentive effect.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 48-53 [
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The Effect of Financial Development on the Structure of Service Trade in China: Is it Repressed?
LIN Fa bin ,
From the perspective of intra-industry trade, the author investigates the characteristics of the structure of China’s service trade. The panel data shows that the effects of financial development, which is measured by the FM or PRIV, on China’s service trade structure differ in different industries. The positive effects of financial development on industries which have more growth opportunities are obviously insufficient.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 54-58 [
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An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Director Board’s Characteristics and Bank Performance--Evidence from China’s 14 Listed Banks
ZHANG Na, GUAN Zhong liang, GUO Zhi guang
As an important internal mechanism of corporate governance, board of directors plays an important role in corporate governance. Using panel data of China’s 14 listed banks from 2006 to 2009, the authors make an empirical analysis of the relationship between board’s characteristics and bank performance. It indicates that independent directors and women directors have significant positive e effect on banks’ performance, while board size and the president serving as the general manager concurrently have negative effect on bank performance. The meeting of directorate has positive effect on bank performance, but the effect is not obvious.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 59-62 [
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An Analysis of the Consumption Will of the Rural Residents in Hebei Province on Dairy Products with Quality Certification during the Post-Sanlu Period
ZHU Jun feng , CHEN Ning zi , WANG Wen zhi
With “Sanlu Incident” as a background, the authors make an empirical study of the factors influencing respondents’ willingness to consume dairy products with certification of green food, organic food and GAP. The result shows that the factors influencing the readiness to buy dairy products that have won green and organic food certification are basically consistent and are different from factors affecting the intention to consume GAP diary products because of the limited cognition to GAP. However, the conception of diary safety information, level of trust in diary with certification, the health condition of respondents and household income are the notable factors that influence the buying intention of diary with the three certifications. Finally, based on the conclusions above, three policy proposals are put forward from the three aspects of information revelation, concept education and improvement of income.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 63-67 [
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Financial Development, Legal Environment, Financial Background of Firms and Financing Constraints--Evidence from Chinese Private Listed Firms
PAN Ke qin
The market imperfections and the lack of institutions protecting investors’ interests will lead to constraint on firms’ external financing. The property attributes of Chinese private enterprises further constrain the financing of them. The author examines the influence of financial development, the development degree of legal system and the financial background of firms on the demand for liquidity by focusing on how these factors affect the sensitivity of firms’ cash holdings to their cash flows. Using Chinese private listed firms during 2002-2006 as samples, the author finds the sensitivity of cash holder to cash flows decreases with financial development and the development degree of legal system, but the above effect disappears when firms’ ultimate owners or directors hold the financial backgroundts.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 68-73 [
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74
Financial Restatement of Listed Company and Pricing of Audit Service--A Concurrent Review of the Promulgation Effect of New Auditing Standards
HU Nan wei, CAO Qiang
The authors attempt to analyze auditors’ reaction to financial restatement based on audit fees. The research finds that auditors charge higher auditfees for firms which disclose financial restatement significantly. And auditorspay more attention to the financial restatement caused by irregularities. Meanwhile the promulgation of New Audit Standard enhances the auditors’ reaction to financial restatement. The results indicate that audit is an effective exterior corporate governance mechanism and the new audit standard enhances audit functionof exterior governance.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 74-78 [
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Auditor Switch, Government Backing and Audit Quality--An Empirical Test of the Effect of the Strategy of Strengthening CPA Firms
WANG En shan
The author investigates the effect of the strategy of strengthening CPA firms from the perspective of auditing demand. Based on the analysis of the auditor switches of China’s listed companies, the author finds with the implementation of the strengthening strategy, compared with the non-government-controlledlisted companies, the auditors of government-controlled listed companies changefrom small ones to big ones, but when the auditor switches to a bigger one, theaudit quality is significantly lower than before. As a conclusion, the author believes that the strategy of strengthening CPA firms hasn’t achieved notable result in auditing practice.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 79-84 [
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Analysis of the Dynamic Effect of Fiscal Decentralization and Local Fiscal Expenditure for Agriculture
LI Xiao jia
By using China’s provincial dynamic panel data model, the author makes an empirical analysis of the effect of fiscal decentralization on local fiscalexpenditure for agriculture. The result of the research shows that fiscal decentralization failed to promote the improvement of local fiscal expenditure for agriculture, but in the evaluation system of officials with economic growth as the core, the positive effect of fiscal decentralization on economic expenditure is significant and it also has positive effect on social expenditure, but its effecton transfer expenditure is not obvious.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 85-88 [
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The Weak Exclusive Property of Agricultural Land, Property Right Conflictsand Its Variance Optimization
LI Guang de
The property right system is a rule arrangement on the power and conduct about the utilization of scarce resources. The exclusive right is the prerequisite condition for the property right to play a role. The exclusion of the existing agriculture land property in China is a weak property structure .The interests of all parties generate intense property conflicts under the weak exclusiveproperty in agricultural land. To eliminate the property conflicts of weak exclusive property right, land property institutional change should ensure that the exclusive right is the core of the system variance.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 89-93 [
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A Forward looking Research into the Medical System Reform in China:Integration of New Hospitalization Insurance--An Analysis Paradigm Based on Enterprise Transaction Cost Theory
MA Ben jiang
The essence of medical reform is to set up a medicalservice pricing mechanism which can minimize transaction costs so that the quality and the costs of medical service can be reflected by its price accurately and approximately. When hospital nowadays provides medical service, whether the service suppliers apply market mechanism or administration mechanism, price distortions exist.When the hospital expands to supply not only medical service, but also medical insurance and disability insurance due to illness, that is, the integration of new hospitalization insurance, drug bills and disability due to illness costs canbe internalized and price distortions can be solved as well. If service suppliers adopt administration mechanism, even though the integration of new hospitalization insurance is implemented, it can not solve price distortions in essence, and should be excluded. It is concluded that under the premise of service suppliers adopting market mechanism, the integration of new hospitalization insurance isworth considering as a possible model of medical reform.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 94-99 [
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An Experimental Research into the Index System for Evaluating Transcultural Communication Based on the Sense making Theory--Taking Germany and China as Examples
XIE Dong mei，FAN Li li，YI Jia bin
The authors aim to solve cross-culture management conflicts emerging in multinational corporations. The authors build an index system to evaluate thecommunication techniques in a cross-cultural environment based on the sense-making theory in which information receiver can appraise the communication techniques of information sender. The authors validate the index system with behavioral experiment method and comparison matrix method and statistical analysis techniqueand bring forward a set of index system to appraise the communication effect which includes logic, mood, position, reason and hearkening, and confirm the weight of communication variables with the comparison matrix method.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 100-104 [
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A Study on the Factors Influencing the Human Capital Investment Intention of Agricultural Enterprises
WANG Yu long， DING Wen feng
Based on human capital investment theory and the theory of planned behavior, the authors analyzed the factors influencing the human capital investment intention of agricultural enterprises and quantified the extent of the influence of these factors through Ordered Logistic analysis. The results show that human capital investment intention of agricultural enterprises is low in China, and investment intention for external human capital is lower than internal human capital. It is also found that the core of the investment factors is the transaction costs of cooperation, expected return on investment, specific capital utilization level and risk of loss, etc.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 105-110 [
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A Research into the Measurement Model of Property Right Human Capital Cost
ZHAO Xuan min, WANG Xue ying
Based on the three layers of human capital, the authors resolved the difficulty of the measurement of human capital cost caused by its specialty. In the light of the characteristics of human capital, in combination with the principle of capital assets pricing model (CAPM), the authors construct a new property right human capital cost measurement model, which has avoided the defects in traditional human capital cost measurement and can be used for reference to measure the human capital cost of modern enterprises rationally.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 111-114 [
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A Research into the Labor Pooling Effect of Migrant Worker Agglomeration
QIAN Hui xiong, LIU Xiao yan
Economic spatial agglomeration will generate an effect of labor pooling. In developed countries, this effect will improve the workers’ wage and firms’ revenue through the labor supply and demand matching. In developing countries, through, the effect of labor pooling is improving the probable revenue of firms and reducing the employment risk of workers through lowering the market uncertainty. The public goods property of labor pooling requires the government to manage and maintain it.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 115-119 [
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The Law and Mechanism of the Variation in China’s Labor Compensation Proportion
GUO Han， REN Bao ping
The fruits of high quality economic growth should be shared by the majority of people in the whole society. Labor compensation proportion in first distribution of national income affects the quality of economic growth by changingthe structure of income distribution. In China in recent years the declining trend in labor compensation proportion is in line with U shape law of the changesin labor compensation proportion and industrial restructuring, biased technical progress, the impact of the labor market and the biased economic policy are the internal mechanism for the decline in labor compensation proportion in our country.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 120-124 [
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A Test on the Excessive Fluctuation of Stock Market--Based on the Shanghai A share Market
JI Jian ,
The author mainly discusses whether excessive fluctuation exists in Shanghai A share market from the overall index and the perspective of different industries. The empirical results show that the return rate of stock index for the past one to five years is negatively correlated with that for the future one to five years. And the empirical result of industries proves the conclusion, too,which shows that there is excessive volatility in the stock market of China.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 125-128 [
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129
A Research into the Two-stage Method for the Non-periodic Cycle of the Stock Market
ZHAO Jian jun，SHEN Yue
In the past research into the non periodic cycles of Chinese stock market, there existed the problems of insufficient samples and time series correlation of stock prices. The authors construct a two stage process. First, the authors overcame the insufficient sampling and short term correlation by collecting and smoothing the complete original dataset. Then the authors applied R/S analysis on these worked data to probe into the non periodic cycles of stock price fluctuation in Chinese stock markets. The empirical results show that here was a non periodic cycle of 260 days in Shanghai Stock Market, and also two non periodic cycles of 350 days and 1350 days in Shenzhen Stock Market.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 129-134 [
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135
An Empirical Analysis of IPO Under pricing Factors--A Perspective Based on Growth Enterprises Market
CAI Chang da, WANG Yi ming
Using the data from the newly erected growth enterprises market, the authors investigate the factors that determine the degree of IPO under pricing in this market through econometric method referring to some outstanding current researches. A comparison with motherboard shows that the results in both markets share tremendous similarity except that variable issue price and P/E ratio fail to explain IPO under pricing, and that the rate of non-tradable shares in growth enterprises market displays inverse correlation with the initial return in contrary to that of the motherboard in spite of its weak statistical significance of coefficient. Finally, suggestions are put forward to control the degree of IPO under pricing such as implementing market-oriented reforms and enhancing the investment ability of the investors in the market.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 135-140 [
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A Research into the Control and Guide Mechanism of Fiscal Input in the Allocation of Chinese Medical Treatment Resources
WEN Xiao cai
To overcome the problems of insufficient fiscal input and structural unbalance in the allocation of Chinese medical treatment resources, the government must realize the control and guide mechanism of fiscal input in the allocation of Chinese medical treatment resources: establishing the principal role of fiscal input and directing more social capital to the field to medical treatment with the leverage of finance|attaching importance to structural adjustment and using the distribution function of finance to control and guide the production, consumption and exchange in the field of medical treatment, not only allocating there sources effectively but also using all kinds of incentive means to harmonize the relationship among doctors, patients and the insurance companies and the relationship among central, local and regional interests, and forming relatively scientific and rational fiscal allocation mechanism of medical treatment resources.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 141-146 [
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An Empirical Research into Convertible Bond Financing Choices for Chinese Listed Companies after the Split Share Structure Reform
ZHAO Hong ping
Macroeconomic conditions and stock running can affect the decisions for convertible bond financing. Firm sizes and equity structures significantly influence the choice between common equity and convertible bonds. Profitability and tax shields significantly influence the choice between straight debt and convertible bond. Total risks and growth opportunities are significantly negatively related to convertible bond financing. Financial leverage and financial slack are unrelated to the choice of convertible bond.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 147-152 [
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A Research into the influence of QFII system on the Volatility of China’s Securities Market
WANG Lin le， ZHANG Yi， LU Fang yuan
As a transitional arrangement of gradual opening of capital markets, QFII has been successfully implemented in many countries. China has introduced QFII formally since 2003, hoping that it can have a positive impact on the stock market, especially to raise the level of market stability. The authors used General Auto Regressive Conditional heteroscedastic Model(GARCH)to give an empirical analysis of market volatility before and after the introduction of QFII in China and drew the conclusion that the improvement of QFII on the Chinese market stability, in general, is not obvious. So the authors put forward some relevant suggestions and countermeasures.
2011 Vol. 28 (1): 153-156 [
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2011 Vol. 28 (1): 157-158 [
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2011 Vol. 28 (1): 159-160 [
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