“营改增”对劳动力个体就业的影响研究

摘要以2010—2017年中国综合社会调查数据中劳动力个体为研究对象,基于“营改增”政策的准自然实验,采用双重差分法分析了其对劳动力个体就业的影响,以评估减税降费政策的社会福利效应,并考察其影响就业的具体机制。研究结果表明:“营改增”政策会提升试点地区劳动力个体的就业概率,机制在于优化产业结构;“营改增”政策对就业的影响在政策实施的第二年达到峰值,之后随着试点范围的扩大而逐渐减弱。异质性分析显示,“营改增”政策对劳动力个体就业的影响在不同受教育水平、性别和户籍群体间存在差异,表明精准的政策实施更有利于促进就业,优化就业结构。研究结论有助于在理论上甄别“营改增”影响就业的机理,在实践中为就业促进政策的制定与调整提供有益借鉴。

	Service

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	Email Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	郭界秀

关键词：营改增劳动力就业产业结构综合社会调查数据

Abstract： Taking the individual labor force in the comprehensive social survey data of China from 2010 to 2017 as the research object, and based on the quasi-natural experiment of the policy of “ Replacing the Business Tax with a Value-added Tax ”, this paper uses the double difference method to analyze its impact on the employment of individual labor force so as to evaluate the social welfare effect of the policies of reducing tax and fee, and investigates the specific mechanism of its impact on employment. The results show that the policy of “ Replacement of Business Tax by VAT ” will improve the employment probability of individual labor force and optimize the industrial structure in the pilot area. The impact of the “ Replacement of Business Tax by VAT ” policy on employment reached a peak in the second year of policy implementation, and then gradually weakened with the expansion of the scope of the pilot project. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of “ Replacement of Business Tax by VAT ” policy on individual employment of labor force is different among different education level, gender and household registration groups. The implementation of accurate policies is more conducive to promoting employment and optimizing the employment structure. This study is helpful to identify the mechanism of “Replacement of Business Tax by VAT” affecting employment in theory, and provide a useful reference for the formulation and adjustment of employment promotion policies in practice.

Keywords： Replacement of Business Tax by VAT Labor Force Employment Industrial Structure General Social Survey (CGSS) Data

收稿日期 2023-06-22; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:河南省研究生教育改革与质量提升工程项目(YJS2024SZ38,YJS2024KC36);国家社会科学基金项目(21BJL100)

作者简介: 郭界秀(1981—),男,河南永城人,副教授,主要从事国际贸易与就业研究。

引用本文:

郭界秀.“营改增”对劳动力个体就业的影响研究[J]. 经济经纬, 2024,2: 150-160

GUO Jiexiu.A Study of the Impact of the Policy of “ Replacement of Business Tax by VAT ” on the Employment of Individual Labor Force[J] Economic Survey, 2024,V41(2): 150-160

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2024/V41/I2/150

白彦锋,陈珊珊,2017.“营改增”的减税效应:基于DSGE模型的分析[J].南京审计大学学报(5):1-9.
曹越,彭可人,郭天枭,2022.“营改增”对企业劳动力需求的影响研究[J].管理评论(11):3-16.
范子英,彭飞,2017. “营改增”的减税效应和分工效应:基于产业互联的视角[J].经济研究(2):82-95.
李永友,严岑,2018.服务业“营改增”能带动制造业升级吗? [J].经济研究(4):18-31.
廖红伟,刘永飞,2021.财政压力下“营改增”对产业结构升级的效应研究[J].当代经济研究(7):93-104.
刘勇,陈文妮,李蓬实,2021.“营改增”对企业投资的影响[J].经济问题(7):45-54.
刘成杰,张甲鹏,2015.“营改增”对国内就业影响的再认识[J].税务研究(6):66-71.
刘建民,唐红李,吴金光,2019.企业异质背景下“营改增”对技术创新的微观效应研究[J].中国软科学(9):134-142.
陆铭,高虹,佐藤宏, 2012. 城市规模与包容性就业[J]. 中国社会科学(10):47-66.
彭飞,许文立,吴华清, 2022. 间接税减税与劳动收入份额[J].经济学(季刊)(6):2021-2040.
彭飞,毛德凤, 2021.“营改增”政策能改善企业要素配置扭曲吗？[J].财政研究(12):108-123.
彭亮,刘国城,2022. 减税降费的创新激励效应研究[J].投资研究(2):37-63.
盛明泉,吴少敏,盛安琪, 2020. “营改增”对生产性服务业企业全要素生产率的影响研究[J].经济经纬(2):150-158.
苏梽芳,陈昌楠,蓝嘉俊, 2021.“营改增”与劳动收入份额:来自中国上市公司的证据[J].财贸经济(1):44-61.
孙正,陈旭东,雷鸣, 2020.“营改增”是否提升了全要素生产率？[J].南开经济研究(1):113-129.
孙正,张艺川,陈旭东,等, 2022.“营改增”促进了生产性服务业与制造业的协同融合吗？[J].南开经济研究(12):117-132.
唐荣,李文秀,纪祥裕, 2021.“营改增”促进了制造业与生产性服务业协同集聚吗?[J].产经评论(4):82-94.
王华,韦欣彤,曹青子,等,2020. “营改增”与企业创新效率[J].会计研究(10):150-163.
温忠麟,张雷,侯杰泰,等,2004. 中介效应检验程序及其应用[J]. 心理学报(5):614-620.
温忠麟,叶宝娟, 2014. 中介效应分析:方法和模型发展[J]. 心理科学进展(5):731-745.
谢获宝,惠丽丽, 2021.营改增政策提高了服务业企业的全要素生产率吗?[J].管理评论(1):3-12.
熊瑞祥,刘威,2022.税收优惠对就业与工资的影响[J].贵州财经大学学报(5):13-22.
肖挺,2019. “营改增”对工业服务化影响效应的研究[J].科研管理(10):106-115.
姚东旻,张鹏远,朱泳奕,2020.减税会扩大企业生产要素需求吗？[J].经济学动态(10):28-43.
姚先国,周礼,来君, 2005.技术进步、技能需求与就业结构[J].中国人口科学(5):47-53.
袁始烨,2019. “营改增”提升了企业技术创新力度吗？[J].产业经济研究(6):50-62.
张璇,张计宝,闫续文,等, 2019.“营改增”与企业创新[J].财政研究(3):63-78.
AI C,NORTON E, 2003. Interaction terms in logit and probitmodels[J]. Economics letters, 80(1):123-129.
ATHEY S,IMBENS G,2006. Identification and inference in nonlinear difference-in-differences models[J].Econometrica, 74 (2):431-497.
BYE B,STRM B, VITSLAND T,2012. Welfare effects of vat reforms: a general equilibrium analysis[J]. International tax and public finance, 19(3):368-392.
KARLSON K , HOLM A,2011. Decomposing primary and secondary effects: a new decomposition method[J]. Research in social stratification & mobility, 29(2):221-237.
PUHANI PA, 2012. The treatment effect, the cross difference, and the interaction term in nonlinear “difference-in-differences” models[J]. Economics Letters, 115(5):85-87.
RATHELOT R,SILLARD P,2008. The Importance of local corporate taxes in business location decisions: evidence from French micro data[J]. The Economic journal, 118(3):499-514.