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    经济经纬 2012 Issue (3) :26-30
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    基于MSVAR模型的房地产通货膨胀效应研究
    夏程波1,庄媛媛2
    (1.四川大学 经济学院,四川 成都 610041; 2.四川大学 工商管理学院,四川 成都 610041)
    A Research on the Inflation Effect on the Influctuation of Real Estate
    XIA Cheng-bo1, ZHUANG Yuan-yuan2
    1.School of Economy, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China; 2.School of Business Adiministration, Chengdu 610041, China
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摘要 笔者运用Markov 区制转移模型对我国房地产波动的通货膨胀效应进行研究,发现我国房地产波动的通胀效应具有区制依赖性特点:通货膨胀率预期成分在低速增长区制和中速增长区制阶段,均显著影响房地产收益率,并且方向相反;在三个区制中通货膨胀率的周期成分均显著影响房地产波动,在高速发展阶段房地产波动的通胀效应表现为“代理假说”,其余阶段均表现为“费雪假说”。
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夏程波
庄媛媛
关键词房地产波动   区制转移模型   通货膨胀效应     
Abstract: As is known that inflation rate is greatly related with real estate yield. In order to test the effect of relation on the cycle of real estate in China, this paper researches the relationship between them in China with a markov regime model by setting three regimes of real estate cycle in China. It is found that the fluctuation of real estate in China depends on regimes; The expect part of inflation is significantly related with real estate yield in both “low speed regime and “medium speed regime”, with different directions; The cycle part of inflation significantly affects the real estate yield in all regimes with positive effects except in “high speed regime”. It shows that government policies may affcet the fluctuation of real estate.
KeywordsReal Estate Influctuation   Inflation Rate   Markov Switching Model     
收稿日期 2011-07-04; 接受日期 2012-05-18;
基金资助:国家社会科学基金项目(05&ZD006)
作者简介: 夏程波(1974-),男,四川绵阳人,四川大学经济学院博士研究生,主要从事世界经济理论与实践研究;庄媛媛(1975- ),女,四川西昌人,回族,四川大学工商管理学院博士研究生,主要从事工程管理研究。
引用本文:   
夏程波, 庄媛媛.基于MSVAR模型的房地产通货膨胀效应研究[J].  经济经纬, 2012,3: 26-30
XIA Cheng-bo, ZHUANG Yuan-yuan.A Research on the Inflation Effect on the Influctuation of Real Estate[J]  Economic Survey, 2012,V1(3): 26-30
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