Abstract：
Population is the basic driving force of national development. Clarifying the internal mechanism of population structure affecting housing prices helps to scientifically analyze housing prices and accurately predict housing prices. Based on this, this paper selects the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016, and uses the panel data model to empirically test the impact of population structure on housing prices from the national and regional levels. The study finds that, at the national level, the ratio of child rearing is opposite to that of house price changes, but the old-age dependency ratio is positively correlated with house prices, and the higher the proportion of higher education, the higher the housing price. In addition, the urbanization rate has promoted the rise of housing prices in a certain period of time. The impact of the floating population on housing prices is very significant. The outflow of population will curb the rise in housing prices, while the population inflow will increase housing prices. The phenomenon of “immigration” makes Chinese real estate face the control of housing prices and the double pressure of going to stock. From a regional perspective, the impact of demographic structural factors on housing prices in different regions shows significant differences. In the more economically developed eastern regions, demographic structural factors will significantly affect housing prices, while in the central and western regions where economic development is relatively slow, the impact of demographic factors on housing prices is not significant, and the rise in housing prices is more due to the increase in personal income brought about by the cyclical economic development.
ZHOU Jianjun, LIU Kuibing, ZHENG Jiao, Fu Yimang.The Influence of Population Structure on Housing Price and Its Regional Differences[J] Economic Survey, 2020,V37(3): 134-141
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