Research on Temporal and Spatial Contagion Effect of Urban Housing Price Bubble in Pearl River Delta Region and Its Prevention
GUO Wen-wei1,2, CHEN Shun-qiang1
1.School of Finance, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics,Guangzhou 510320, China; 2.Collaborative Innovation Center of Technological and Financial Industries in Pearl River Delta,Guangdong University of Finance & Economics,Guangzhou 510320,China;
Abstract：
Based on backward sup ADF test method(BSADF), this paper first measures the housing price bubble in 9 cites in Pearl River Delta region from 2013 to 2016. Then, the paper adopts spatial econometric model and R-Vine Copula in its analysis of the dependent structure and spatial contagion of the housing price bubble among these cities. The results show that there are significant housing bubbles in all these cities, among which, that of Shenzhen is the most serious and last for the longest period of time. There is significant spatial auto-correlation of the housing price bubble in each city, and these bubbles present an alternation between positive and negative intervals. The housing bubbles present the characteristics of geographical and economic agglomeration in all cities in Pearl River Delta region, with Foshan and Zhuhai being the central hubs of their respective aggregate regions.At present, the housing price bubble is spreading from first tier cities to second or third, even fourth tier cities.
GUO Wen-wei, CHEN Shun-qiang.Research on Temporal and Spatial Contagion Effect of Urban Housing Price Bubble in Pearl River Delta Region and Its Prevention[J] Economic Survey, 2018,V35(6): 15-21
2018 
