Population Aging, Migration and Regional Housing Price Difference—Research on Urban Panel Data of Cities at Different Tiers
ZOU Jin1, LOU Zhu-sheng2
1.School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China; 2.Hanqing Advanced Institute of Finance and Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
Abstract：
The level of aging is often intertwined with the factor of population migration, which together affect the temporal and spacial characteristics of China’s housing prices. Through a general equilibrium model of supply and demand, this paper first finds that the increase of the population dependency ratio will reduce the housing price while the increase of population migration pushes it up, and this effect may be different in cities of different urban levels. On this basis, this paper adopts the panel data of 35 cities from 2002 to 2015 and combines static panel model with dynamic panel model in its test of the theory. Hierarchical regression results show that with the increase of city level, the effect of aging and migration on housing price will decrease, and the effect of migration is greater than that of aging. It can be seen that there are structural characteristics in the impact of population structure on housing market, which may be highly correlated to procreation cost, social insurance and benefit, and old age caring cost that result from urban-rural dual economic system and the fragmentation of social security system. The core of promoting the sustainable development of real estate market is to avoid the market imbalance of regional housing.
ZOU Jin, LOU Zhu-sheng.Population Aging, Migration and Regional Housing Price Difference—Research on Urban Panel Data of Cities at Different Tiers[J] Economic Survey, 2018,V35(6): 22-29
2018 
