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Economic Survey
 
2016 Vol.33 Issue.3
Published 2016-05-10

1 Development of High-speed Railway and Producer Services Agglomeration
QIN Cheng-lin,YANG Qing-qing

Using the data of 218 cities during 2003 and 2012, we analyze how the development of high-speed railway (HSR) affects agglomeration of producer services. The results show that economic contacts are strengthened by the operation of HSR, and facilitate the agglomeration of producer services by 3% to 6%. Furthermore, the earlier the HSR run, the bigger it affects producer services agglomeration. Especially to cities along HSR,their producer services are significantly agglomerated through reinforcing the connection with each other, owing to HSR. Therefore, cities along HSR should take advantage of it to accelerate development of producer services, particularly for those important stations of HSR. On the contrary, the other cities may not suit for this industry.

2016 Vol. 33 (3): 1-6 [Abstract] ( 2517 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 740KB] ( 3936 )
7 An Empirical Analysis of Economic Linkage Based on Industrial Division of Labor in Guanzhong-Tianshui Area
WANG Lei, FU Jian-rong
This paper modifies the conventional gravity model by introducing an industrial division of labor coefficient, tests its validity with real inter-city bus traffic data and then computes the economic linkages in 2008, 2010 and 2012 respectively. Results show that: Xi’an takes the dominant position, but has much weaker linkages with Shangluo and Tianshui as opposed to what it has with other cities; Baoji is posited as the sub-center city that is next only to Xi’an, but does not demonstrate commensurate linkage effect; The economic zone is imbalanced with Shangluo and Tianshui as periphery cities that have lowest linkages. The whole region is presently characterized with single-nuclei hierarchical structure around Xi’an and should be re-oriented in the future toward multiple-nuclei inter-city network through further industrial division of labor among cities other than Xi’an.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 7-12 [Abstract] ( 1818 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 818KB] ( 1810 )
13 An Analysis of Chinese Marine Economic Efficiency Change and Productivity Change under Constraints of Resources and Environment
YUAN Qing-min, ZHANG Wen-long, FENG Dong
By bringing the resource inputs and undesirable outputs into productivity analysis framework, this paper analyzes the marine economy as a case study from 2001 to 2011 by the SBM method and the evaluation results are compared with that by the traditional method. And the influences of the resources and environment constraints to marine economy are analyzed as well. Meanwhile, this paper evaluates and decomposes the marine economy productivity under the resource and environment constraint by the ML index. The results show that the resources and environment efficiency of marine economy went beyond the traditional economy efficiency gradually after 2006, but it could be higher; The efficiency of coastal cities except Shanghai, Fujian and Guangdong needs to be improved; The marine economy productivity in China under the resource and environment constraint shows the increasing trend and the technical progress plays a significant role in promoting while the technical efficiency decreases.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 13-18 [Abstract] ( 1808 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 756KB] ( 1575 )
19 The Interprovincial Differences and Influencing Factors of High-star Hotels Distribution in China
XU Dan,LIU Yan-hong,WAN Xu-cai
This article tries to discuss spatial distribution and differences of high-star hotels at the interprovincial region level in China and to find out influential factors as well in order to provide theoretical basis for high-star hotels’ development in China and especially for decisions on spatial layout. This research analyzes the interprovincial differences and centrality of high-star hotels distribution in China by the method of mean ratio, cumulative proportion and cluster analysis. Moreover, it also further analyzes the correlative and structural relationship between the number of high-star hotels in China and its influential factors with the method of correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. The results show that, the interprovincial distribution of high-star hotels in China is very unbalanced and is highly centralized, the provinces whose high-star hotels are developed concentrated in the eastern developed areas. It finds out that the level of economic development has the greatest impact on interprovincial distribution of high-star hotels, which is followed by the number of inbound tourists. With the analysis of indirect influential factors, the foreign trade has the greatest impact on the amount of high-star hotels, which is followed by the tourism product. In addition, it also shows that the level of economic development plays an important role in high-star hotels’ development by influencing the number of inbound tourists, tourism products, foreign trade and traffic condition, the effect of the number of inbound tourists to the distribution of high-star hotels is reflected by the tourism products and foreign trade.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 19-24 [Abstract] ( 2177 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 768KB] ( 1670 )
25 An Analysis of the Impact of Market Competition on the Level of Financial Support for Rural Households   ——An Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data
TAN Yan-zhi, YANG Yun
In rural financial sector in our country, mainstream view has been supported to establish diversified financial organizations as well as to create competitive environment. And China’s rural finance top-level design is also market-oriented mode. This paper builds dynamic panel model, using the system GMM method to analyze the 2006-2011 national rural commercial bank provincial panel data and finds out that there is a non-linear relationship between the competition among rural financial institutions and the level of financial support for rural households, and it also reveals the current competition has been or will be detrimental to the latter, which indicates that China's rural finance top-level design might be disputed. Empirical research also shows a useful way to improve the level of support for agriculture that is improving the institutional efficiency in rural finance.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 25-30 [Abstract] ( 1891 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 962KB] ( 4022 )
31 A Study on Growth and Decomposition of China’s Grain TFP Growth
FAN Li-xia
Employing the panel data (from 1978 to 2012) at the provincial level in China and the SBM Directional distance function model which is non-radial and non-angular, and absorbing the essential idea of Global Malmquist Productivity Index, the paper puts forward a new evaluation model called the SBM-Global Malmquist Productivity Index, by which accounts and decomposes China’s grain growth rate of total factor productivity. The study shows that the traditional Malmquist Index tends to “technology retrogression” compared with Global Malmquist Index, which “passively” increases the measurement of the grain growth rate of total factor productivity. And secondly, China’s total factor productivity exhibits obvious unbalance in different regions, the west region shows the highest growth level, the eastern region the second, and the central region the lowest. Moreover, our grain growth rate is on the rise and fluctuates in U shape, which mainly dues to the frontier technology progress and not for the motivation of technical efficiency.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 31-36 [Abstract] ( 2186 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 911KB] ( 1474 )
37 An Analysis of the Evolution and Mechanism of China’s Soybean Planting Agglomeration and Geographic Pattern
LI Er-ling, WEI Shu-hua, XU Ya-nan
Based on the calculation of barycenter coordinates, Gini coefficient, spatial autocorrelation and LQ of soybean in 1982-2012 in China, combined with the soybean output, yields and acreage in the provincial, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern and mechanism of soybean planting agglomeration. It presents that: (1) The barycenter of soybean planting was distributed in the northeast of China. Its moving trajectory was along a cyclical change on northeast to southwest. (2) The spatial pattern of soybean planting agglomeration was distinct, but the regional specialization degree was gradually weakened, and the degree of agglomeration has experienced a periodic change from increase-decrease-increase-decrease. (3) The agglomeration and specialized degree of soybean planting in Northeast area of China significantly influences on the clustering and specialized production pattern of national soybean planting. (4)Natural endowments determine initial agglomeration pattern of soybean planting, but the economic factors, technological factors and institutional factors will affect more on the agglomeration pattern of soybean planting in Chinese open-up era.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 37-42 [Abstract] ( 1841 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1876KB] ( 1727 )
43 The Extent of Credit Rationing and its Influence on
Rural Households Financial Assets in China
   
Chen Zhi-guo, Li Cheng-you, Li Hong
Based on the datas that include 1500 sample rural households surveyed and tracked from 15 provinces, and by using the panel partially observable Biprobit model and linear regression model with dummy variable , this paper estimates the extent of credit rationing of rural households and its impact on rural households financial assets. The results show: 53.1% of rural households have credit rationing, 42.3% of which receive full credit rationing, 11.8% of which receive some of credit rationing; The full credit rationing have a significant impact on household financial assets, which suggests that the full credit rationing make rural households cash increase 1521 yuan, make the ratio of rural households cash and savings rise 5.61%. Therefore, the paper proposes suggestions that include perfecting rural social security system, constructing diversified rural financial ecosystem that can make the formal financial organizations, informal financial organization and new types of rural financial organizations maintain organic coordination, establishing property rights guarantee mechanism, innovating rural financial derivatives.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 43-47 [Abstract] ( 2157 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 741KB] ( 6271 )
48 An Empirical Study of the Effect of Cultural Identity on International Students in China
QU Ru-xiao, LI Jing, YANG Xiu
This paper investigated the determinant factors of the international students in China by choosing the export of core cultural products as the measure of cultural identity and employing a sample of international students from the top 9 countries from 1992 to 2012. The results show that cultural identity has a significant role in promoting the scale of international students in China. Every 1% increase in the level of cultural identity can increase the international students in China by about 0.116%.To further expand the scale of international students in China, in addition to promote economic, educational and technological factors to attract foreign students, but also to expand the spread of Chinese culture and enhance the recognition of Chinese culture in other countries.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 48-53 [Abstract] ( 2154 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 846KB] ( 3896 )
54 A Study on the Spillovers Effect of Vertical Specialization and Foreign Direct Investment——An Empirical Test Based on Chinese Industrial Enterprises Data
FENG Zhi-jian, LIU Chang-geng
The author empirically tests the technology spillover of foreign direct investment and vertical specialization based on 2003-2007 Chinese industrial enterprises data. It is found thatthe low-end lock position of domestic enterprises in the vertical specialization control the increase in productivity, the horizontal and backward linkages of foreign direct investment have hindered the domestic enterprises to improve productivity, the forward linkages have promoted the technological progress of domestic enterprises. On the conditions of considering the interaction of foreign direct investmentand vertical specialization, the comprehensive effect of foreign direct investment performance for horizontal association significantly increased the productivity of domestic enterprises, forward association and backward association significantly reduce the productivity of domestic enterprises. Small enterprises, export enterprises and private enterprises get more the benefits of employee mobility.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 54-59 [Abstract] ( 1901 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 830KB] ( 3279 )
60 A Study on Influence of China’s OFDI Reverse Technology Spillover on Domestic Technology Progress ——Based on the Perspective of Absorption Ability
HUO Xin
This paper uses L-P model for reference,selecting TFP as index of technology progress,analyzing the influence degree and technology absorption factors of OFDI’s reverse technology spillover on the base of OFDI data between 1985 and 2013. The results show that China’s OFDI can produce reverse technology spillover effect significantly, namely the OFDI increase for each additional 1% will improve TFP by 0.063%, the effect degree is less than domestic R&D and import; in addition, the reverse technology spillover effect is also affected by absorptive capacity factors , such as human capital level、R&D strength and technology gap etc.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 60-65 [Abstract] ( 2142 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 811KB] ( 3064 )
66 The Economic Effect of International Aid from the Perspective of Welfare——Based on Analysis of Dynamic General Equilibrium Model
XIONG Qing-long
There is different views for a long time about economic effectiveness of international aid in academic field. In the past, research often focus on macro level, which underline the relationship between international aid and recipient countries economic growth ,then to expound the effectiveness of international aid. This paper tries to from the micro level, from the relation between aid and family welfare, using the Dynamic General Equilibrium model, to discuss the influences of donor countries and recipient countries which come from the international aid. This studies have found that international aid can improve welfare both recipient and donor family, also can influence other economic variables; and aid is effective from the perspective of the welfare; International aid provides necessary conditions for promoting the recipient economic growth.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 66-71 [Abstract] ( 2099 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 771KB] ( 8200 )
72 A Grey Evaluation of the Structural Imbalance of Chinese Service Trade and its Degree of Imbalance Based on Triangular Whitenization Weight Function
LI Dan
In order to analyze the degree of structural imbalance of Chinese trade in service objectively, this paper creates a reference system which constitutes 23 countries or regions of North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania, classifies structural imbalance of trade in service into three categories, namely slightly imbalance, general imbalance, and severe imbalance, using triangular whitenization weight function method. The results indicate that on the one hand, structure of Chinese service trade has changed from serious imbalance to general imbalance during 2000 to 2013, whilethe reference system has been at the state of minor imbalance for the same period of time; on the other hand, the results of structural imbalance degree of Chinese service trade show that the imbalance of export structural has been improved, but the import structure deteriorated.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 72-77 [Abstract] ( 1870 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 783KB] ( 1387 )
78 Knowledge Spillover and Chinese High-Tech Industrial Innovation
ZHOU Can, ZENG Gang
By means of the panel data from high-tech industries of 31 Chinese provincesin 2000-2011, this paper examinesthe effects of specialization, diversity and spatial spillovers and marketcompetition on Chinesehigh-tech industrial innovation by spatial lag panel data model based on the Marshalland Jacobsexternality theory and taken account of spatial correlations. The main findings of this study are drawn as follows. Firstly, the impact of R&D capital on Chinese high-tech industrial innovation is positive and statistically significant. Secondly,positive impacts of MarshallSpillover are observed in the regional innovation of high-tech industry,while the effects of Jacobs spillover on high-tech industry are different between industries. However, marketcompetition is not significant.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 78-83 [Abstract] ( 2233 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 810KB] ( 1642 )
84 The Efficiency of Chinese Industries Based on Meta-frontier DEA Model
LI Peng, HU Han-hui
In order to explore the present situation of industrial development, this paper applies MML index to estimate the industries’ total factor productivity and its components based on data of Chinese three-digit industries over the period 2006 to 2010 and empirically examines factors of productivity changes based on Tobit model. The major conclusions are as follows: As concerning the technology gap ratio, the mid- low-tech industries is relatives stable, but others dark “V” shaped by the financial crisis; all groups have a tendency to amplify in potential technology and living space. Home market size play a positive role in TFP growth, opening rate, firm size, cost of capital and the proportion of fixed assets have significant negative effect, other factors have no significant effect.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 84-89 [Abstract] ( 2306 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 881KB] ( 6304 )
90 Is China’s Industrial Agglomeration Caused by Causal Loop Accumulation?
LIU Yan-jun
This article aims to test causal loop accumulation apply to Chinese industry and summarizes the mechanism of industrial agglomeration causal loop accumulation of new economic geography theory, introduced agglomeration, factor returns and factor mobility to establish PVAR model. By estimation results analysis, impulse response function analysis, this article analyzed the existence of causal mechanism of accumulation cycle, time dimension characteristic of mutual influence between variables, and it is found that as the market economic system is not perfect, too much government intervention in industrial agglomeration and social management system did not match and so on, the second link of process of cause and effect cycle accumulation was broken, causing the level of return cannot effectively guide elements factor mobility, resulting in the accumulation of the causal loop mechanism cannot play an effective role in the process of industrial agglomeration.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 90-95 [Abstract] ( 2046 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 988KB] ( 1363 )
96 Executive Compensation Incentives’ Anti-Sticky Effect on Expense   ——An Empirical Test about Pay Gap and Salary Premium
SUN Wei-zhang, WANG Can, GAN Sheng-dao
In this study, the author tested the anti-sticky effect of compensation incentives (contain both pay gap and salary premium) empirically and studied the changes of compensation incentives’ anti-sticky effect when market, industry and shareholder are different. Results show that the expense of List Companies in China is significantly “sticky” and compensation incentives are anti-sticky. Comparing to developed area, compensation incentives of the companies in undeveloped area are more effective in reducing stickiness. Compensation incentives of non-manufacturing companies reduce stickiness significantly but not in manufacturing companies. Compensation incentives of SOEs reduce stickiness significantly but not in non-SOEs.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 96-101 [Abstract] ( 2026 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 748KB] ( 4890 )
102 Institutional Distance and Enter Model Choice of Chinese Companies   ——An Integrated Framework of Knowledge Transfer and Legitimacy
WU Liang, LV Hong-jiang
Based on institutional theory, integrating knowledge transfer and legitimacy, this paper puts forward an integrated research framework, to explore the influence of institutional distance on the entry mode choice of Chinese companies. The empirical results show that the larger the regulatory distance, the greater possibility to choose sole proprietorship of Chinese enterprises; On the contrary, the larger the normative distance, the greater possibility to choose joint venture of Chinese enterprises. At the same time, the normative distance can moderate the relationship between the regulatory distance and the entry mode of Chinese companies. These findings have important implications for the entry mode choice of Chinese companies in the future.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 102-107 [Abstract] ( 2133 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 673KB] ( 9289 )
108 The Unintended Consequences of Accounting Standards Evolution——A Research on the Impact of Accounting Standards Evolution on Enterprise Investment
GU Shui-bin, CHEN Jia-li
Accounting Standards Evolution not only caused intended consequences but also unintended consequences. Accounting can take effects with its information, and contracting as well. By borrowing the institution and behavior analysis paradigm, this paper ran theoretical and empirical tests to study the impact of accounting standards connotation evolution on enterprise investment. We finally found that accounting standards evolution could guide enterprises to pay more attention to the value of investments. This paper, with unique perspective, is of great significance to help face up to unintended consequences of accounting standards evolution, and help expand areas of the impact of accounting standards evolution research.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 108-113 [Abstract] ( 1999 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 890KB] ( 4561 )
114 The Influence and Mechanism of Employee Service Orientation on Customer Service Outcome   ——From the Perspective of Service Interaction
LI Jian-xin, LUO Jing, LIU Hong-shen
This paper studied the effect of service orientation on rapport and satisfaction and its influencing mechanism by collecting bilateral data from hairdressing service situation. It is found that employee service orientation has a direct impact on the rapport and satisfaction, and it has an indirect impact on satisfaction through service interaction and rapport. The findings are helpful to improve service management and marketing practices.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 114-119 [Abstract] ( 1832 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 812KB] ( 4115 )
120 The Dilemma and Choice of Informal Employed Workers’ Social Security——A Case Study of Inner Mongolia
REN Hai-xia
The number of informal employment will increase with China all-round pioneer,their social security is an important part of universal insurance. This paper analyzes the informal employment social security from two aspects of contributory social insurance and non-contributory social assistance and social welfare predicament in Inner Mongolia. At last, the paper puts forward the solution, includes: reform the contributory social security, improve social assistance and social welfare system, enhance insurance payment capability of the informal employment. The conclusion of this paper has a certain significance for our current informal employment reform social security system.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 120-125 [Abstract] ( 1961 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1045KB] ( 4399 )
126 City Size and Resident Satisfaction with the Basic Public Service   
FENG Ya-ping,XU Chang-sheng,FAN Hong-zhong
Based on the questionnaire to the residents’ satisfaction with the basic public service in large and medium-sized cities, small city and small towns, the authors figure out that the overall resident satisfaction to the public service in China is not high, with the small city outperforming the others. Resident satisfaction in large and medium-sized cities is lower than that of small city and small towns. Therefore, it is not right to take the view that public service in large and medium-sized city is better than that in small city and small for granted. To boost the equity of the public service, different policies are needed in different sizes of cities and small towns.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 126-131 [Abstract] ( 1797 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1010KB] ( 5123 )
132 A Research of Spot and Future Goods Stock Price Fluctuation Characteristics and their Cross Correlation
GUO Ming, ZHU Li, HUANG Yi-zhou
The author uses the EEMD method on the spot price of the stock index fluctuation 5 minutes to decompose high frequency data, and analyzes of volatility characteristics and interactive relationship between each component, it is found that both long-term trends converge, there is a lead lag relationship. From the perspective of the fluctuation characteristics of each component, the spot to the reaction of the basic information synchronization frequency period, with the reduction of frequency of each component of the futures price lead time of spot price increases, but the long run both reactions to prices tend to be more consistent. From the perspective of the components in the cross correlation, the high frequency part and high frequency, low frequency part and the low frequency part, trend and trend presents a pro-cyclical changes, there is a very strong lead lag relationship, for a period of time (60 minutes), and sustained strong influence each other, but with the extension of the time lag correlation leading gradually reduced.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 132-137 [Abstract] ( 1771 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1244KB] ( 1456 )
138 Convergence and Evolution Trend of Provincial Macro Tax Burden in China
WU Yu-xia, AN Na, DU Xing-tao
The paper analyzed spatial distribution and evolution features of China's macro tax burden of 31 provinces for 1994-2011 used an econometric analysis of non-parametric , revealing the extent of inter-provincial and inter-regional fiscal imbalances . The study found, in the whole, that 31 provincial macro tax burden overall level was gradually rising , the main increase range were the low steadily rising stage before 2001 and accelerated stage after 2003 since the tax federalism; from the provincial perspective, provincial macro tax burden presented as convergence to divergence changes and Inter-provincial macro tax burden gap gradually increased; from the regional perspective, macro tax burden level differences between regions are constantly widening year by year, and are widening faster than inter-provincial disparities. Studies have shown that the distribution of provincial macro tax burden shift from the convergence to the divergence indicating the strength of inter-provincial fiscal gap gradually widened and the poor balance of fiscal capacity between provinces in recent years.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 138-143 [Abstract] ( 2036 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1215KB] ( 3373 )
144 The Risk Measure, Decomposition and Attribution of Local Government Debts at Province Level——Based on Factor-Cluster Analysis on 2014 Debts Audit
ZHAO Jian-feng
Based on firsthand 2014 national audit data of 30 local governments debt announcements at province-level in China, the study constructs measure index system of debt risk of local government from the perspective of incremental debt risk, stock debt risk, financial support risk and short-term liquidity risk using factor analysis method. And attribute to risk factors ranking of local government debts, the principal risks decomposed and analyzed the risk origin attributions. Then there comes the results that the most important risk source is the incremental debt risk, economic transition and cross-over factors are likely to leading local government debt risks out of control. Therefore, the government should regulate the abnormal speeding of debts, exert the leverage effect on economic transformation from investing strategic emerging industries, and improve the complete packaging solutions of short-term measures and long-term institutional construction of local debt risks control.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 144-149 [Abstract] ( 2264 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 916KB] ( 10168 )
150 Will Debtor Firms Gain from Unexpected Inflation?——Evidence from China Based on Nominal Contracting Hypothesis
LI Li-fang, LV Shi-jie
Applying the data of China listed companies over the 1991-2014 period and fixed-effect regress, it is found that our results support nominal contracting hypothesis, implying that firms with debts gain from increase in unexpected inflation and more debts induce more gains for debtor firms. Firms with more short-term monetary contracts are less affected by higher-than-unexpected inflation. Returns of cyclical industries and public utilities are more sensitive to the unexpected inflation than other industries, because they own more long-term contracts.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 150-154 [Abstract] ( 2198 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 638KB] ( 3862 )
155 The Impact of Financial Development on China’s Regional Urbanization
CHEN Zhi-gang, WANG Xiao-xia, GUI Li
Based on the empirical model, and from the perspective of region, this paper uses the panel data over the period 2000-2013 to analyze the impact of financial development on China’s urbanization, respectively from three aspects: population, income and industry. The results shows that the promotion of financial development does have a positive effect on urbanization of population and industry, and the higher the degree of financial development, the positive effect is more significantly. However, financial development broadens urban-rural income gap at the same time, especially in east China and central China. This study and its policy implications is of great significance for promoting the construction of China’s urbanization.
2016 Vol. 33 (3): 155-159 [Abstract] ( 2420 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 767KB] ( 5122 )
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