The Risk Measure, Decomposition and Attribution of Local Government Debts at Province Level——Based on Factor-Cluster Analysis on 2014 Debts Audit
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Abstract Based on firsthand 2014 national audit data of 30 local governments debt announcements at province-level in China, the study constructs measure index system of debt risk of local government from the perspective of incremental debt risk, stock debt risk, financial support risk and short-term liquidity risk using factor analysis method. And attribute to risk factors ranking of local government debts, the principal risks decomposed and analyzed the risk origin attributions. Then there comes the results that the most important risk source is the incremental debt risk, economic transition and cross-over factors are likely to leading local government debt risks out of control. Therefore, the government should regulate the abnormal speeding of debts, exert the leverage effect on economic transformation from investing strategic emerging industries, and improve the complete packaging solutions of short-term measures and long-term institutional construction of local debt risks control.
DIAO Jian-Feng. The Risk Measure, Decomposition and Attribution of Local Government Debts at Province Level——Based on Factor-Cluster Analysis on 2014 Debts Audit. Economic Survey, 2016, 33(3): 0144.
2016, Vol. 33 
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