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Economic Survey

	2015 Vol.32 Issue.1 Published 2015-01-15

Original articles

	1	Study on Regional Linkage Effect’s Evolutionary Mechanism of China MICE
		LI Tie-cheng, LIU Li
		In this paper, the regional effect of MICE region linkage effect refers to the effect of backward linkages and forward linkages in both regional and interregional level. The effect of backward linkage means the economic contribution, and the forward linkage means product supply capacity. This paper discussed the evolutionary characteristics and dynamic mechanism about regional linkage effect of MICE with Interregional Input-Output Model (IRIO) from 2002 to 2007. This study reveals, the economic contribution and product supply capacity of MICE are higher than the average level of the whole industries. The economic contribution showed a downward trend and product supply capacity showed an increasing trend. The economic contribution in central, western area is higher than that of eastern area, but the pulling ability become weaker in central, western areas, and stronger in the eastern regions. The MICE’s region linkages effect is related to technical progress, regional economic development level, regional development foundation of MICE, regional economic openness, regional industrial structure and industry specialization degree.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 1-5 [Abstract] ( 2625 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 580KB] ( 2252 )

	6	Coordinated Development and Spatial Pattern Evolutionary of Central Plains Economic Region (CPER)——Compared with Yangtze River Delta
		ZHANG Wei-li, YANG Hui-min
		This paper used the differences of economic growth level, the analysis of spatial correlation, the partial hot technology and other means to measure the provincial border coordinated development degree of CPER, as well as the evolution of the spatial pattern and compared with the area of Yangtze River Delta. The empirical research shows: (1) The provincial border area of CPER’ economic differences with a relatively decreases, the economic development between regions gradually improved, and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta provincial border area slightly larger than the former. (2) CPER has a stronger economic links, and there is a significant correlation, nevertheless, although the Yangtze River Delta region has a high spatial correlation, it showed a magnetic weakening trend. (3) The provincial border coordinated development degree of the CPER is significantly lower than the Yangtze River Delta, but the gap between the two is gradually narrowing. (4) The economic coordinated development degree of CPER remained stable in the spatial distribution, only a few areas show high level coordinated development, and such areas has little externality to surrounding areas compared with the Yangtze River Delta. Finally, the paper proposed some policy countermeasures to promote the coordinated development of the CPER, such as, taking advantage of cheap land and human resources to attract industrial transfer of developed areas, developing regional characteristic economy, cultivating the central city of the provincial border regions, enhancing regional cooperation etc.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 6-11 [Abstract] ( 3181 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1501KB] ( 2418 )

	12	The Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Data
		WU Chun-tao
		Based on the panel data from Chinese 29 provinces during 1997～2011, and using three urbanization indictors in census register population, employment population, urban construction, this paper has a comprehensive study about the impact of urbanization on agriculture carbon emission in the whole country, the eastern, central, western provinces. Results show that, urbanization reduces the overall level of China's agricultural carbon emissions. There are some differences in the influences of various urbanization channels, and the employment urbanization is most important driving force of agriculture carbon decline. However, there are also some differences in the impacts of urbanization on different areas’ agriculture carbon emission. Urbanization has a significant positive impact on agriculture carbon emission in the western area, but in the central area, such impact is negative, the impact of urbanization in eastern area is uncertain. The results have important implications for the coordinated development of China's urbanization and low-carbon economy.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 12-18 [Abstract] ( 3035 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 782KB] ( 1957 )

	19	Financial Development, Technological Progress and Regional Employment Structure Evolution ——An Empirical Study Based on China Eastern Provincial Panel Data
		YANG Kai-jun,PAN Juan,WANG Shu
		Based on China eastern 11 provinces’ panel data from 1996 to 2011, this paper constructs panel model to test the influence of financial development, technological progress on employment structure. The empirical results show: The improvement of financial development scale plays an inhibitory effect on the first and second industry employment structure. Both financial development scale and financial efficiency play promoting role on the employment of the third industry. Technological progress shows negative effects on the first industry employment, also plays a positive influence on the second and third industry employment. In addition, financial development and technological progress have different impact on employment structure in different province.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 19-24 [Abstract] ( 2882 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 716KB] ( 2238 )

	25	Substantive Participation in Rural Concentrated Inhabitation Reform ——An Analysis Based on Contract Theory
		WANG Lei, SHEN Dan, LI Zi-ming
		By modeling the interactions between local governments and rural households under different constraints, this paper demonstrates the behaviors of rural households with and without their participations and compares their corresponding welfare conditions. We find that Pareto optimality of probability of participation exists, at which level both the interest of rural households and welfare condition of social reform reach maximum. In the meantime, the greater probability of participation of rural households in the reform, the more benefit can be reached. Otherwise benefit decreases, even will be below the level without participation.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 25-30 [Abstract] ( 2532 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 823KB] ( 2062 )

	31	Study on the Determinants of Agricultural Cluster Brand Development
		ZHANG Yue-li,LIU Feng
		This paper aims to make a whole study on the developing process of agricultural clusters’ brand based on the theories of industrial clusters and brands. We propose a conceptual model to discuss the key determinants of the development of agricultural clusters’ brand. Questionnaires are filled out by the stakeholders of Frigid Black Soil cluster from Heilongjiang. We then test the hypothesis through data analysis using structural equation model. Empirical research shows that the natural conditions of agricultural resource has direct impact on the value chain systems, which play an important mediating effect between the resources endowment and agricultural clusters’ brand development. The authors also find that government’s support and trade association’s support are the moderating variable between the resources endowment and the value chain systems
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 31-36 [Abstract] ( 2457 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1235KB] ( 1982 )

	37	Research on the Incentive Mechanism of Core Producers in Farmers’ Professional Cooperatives on Promoting Agricultural Standardization——Based on Double Multitask Principal-agent Model
		LI Zhi-fang, CHEN Tong
		This paper analyzes the double principal-agent relationship in popularizing agricultural standardization in China. Then, this paper builds double multitask principal-agent model by taking the core members in farmers’ professional cooperatives as incentive objects. The results show that the effort level of supervising standardization task of the core members is influenced by the risk preference, the degree of risk aversion, the risk degree of supervising the promotion of standardization and the performance coefficient, the incentive coefficient of local government and other factors. Finally, combined with the promotion of agricultural standardization in Tianjin Shuguang ShaWo radish professional cooperatives, this paper explains the positive significance of policy suggestions on the model.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 37-42 [Abstract] ( 2567 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 742KB] ( 1574 )

	43	The Economic Foundations of Monetary Cooperation between China and Central Asian Countries——Based on the Benefit-Cost Model of Optimal Currency Areas
		ZHANG Jin-bo, ZHANG Wei-jin, ZHANG Jiang-yang
		This paper analyzed the development of monetary integration about China, Russia and 6 central Asian countries. Moreover, it also analyzed the feasibility of RMB that becoming the regional anchor currency comparing with Ruble. As we all known, OCA theory is the main theoretical foundation that investigate the degree of monetary integration in a region. In this paper we simplified DMP model into a static new model, which is the new achievement of OCA theory. By this new model we interpreted the costs and benefits of optimal currency area from both big country and small country’s perspective. Based on the new model, we treated the change rate about nominal exchange rate, inflation and the correlation of the real business cycle as the empirical indicators in order to measure the economic situation about China and the seven other countries. Based on the thorough analysis about the degree of monetary integration about China, Russia and 6 central Asian countries, this paper provided economic foundation for the policy decision of RMB’s regionalization.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 43-49 [Abstract] ( 2933 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1132KB] ( 1806 )

	50	Does the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Induced by China’s Antidumping Hamper the Development of Domestic Industry?—An Empirical Research Based on Calibrated Model with the Manufacturing Industry Data
		WU Guo-song, SUN Ai-jun, LIN Da-yan
		This paper tries to reveal the impact of FDI induced by implementation of anti-dumping measures for manufacturing products on the development of Chinese domestic industry, using the calibrated model of oligopoly competition, and with the manufacturing products anti-dumping cases between China and European Union, Japan, the United States and Korea from 2001 to 2011. Research results show that FDI caused by Chinese anti-dumping actions may weaken or even reverse the effects of commercial protection policy. The lower cost of FDI will cause more welfare losses of domestic manufacturing industry. However, if domestic manufacturing enterprises can decrease its comprehensive cost immediately after the entry of FDI, they can still won advantageous market position, even if FDI has low investment cost.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 50-55 [Abstract] ( 2781 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 713KB] ( 1757 )

	56	A Study on Sino-US Trade Efficiency Evaluation and Optimized Improvement
		ZONG Gang, LIU Lu
		With the data of Sino-US trade from 2004 to 2012, this paper evaluates the economic efficiency of the Sino-US trade and explores the way to optimize the efficiency based on Pareto Optimality and the model of utility function. It finds that Sino-US trade structure is inefficient and uneconomic, which is rooted in the long-term strict control of the high-tech exports to China by United States. Therefore, the optimization to improve efficiency should start from relaxing the US’ high-tech exports control to China.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 56-60 [Abstract] ( 2496 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 650KB] ( 1687 )

	61	Export Trade, Labor Productivity and Wage Level——Empirical Research Based on the Data of Chinese Export Sectors
		PU Yan-ping, CHENG Xiao
		This paper builds an industry panel data model based on 11export sectors of China which have comparative advantage represented by RCA index, and studies the relationship among industries’ export trade, labor productivity and wages level with such panel data model. The result shows: the increase of labor productivity has significant promoting effect on wage growth,but the wage growth rate is lower than labor productivity growth rate, and there exists a national income redistribution phenomenon which ranges from labor income to capital income. Export trade significantly affects export sector workers' wages through changing export price. Effects of export trade of different export sectors on wages have significant differences which inhibit the narrowing of wage gap within sectors.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 61-65 [Abstract] ( 2929 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 723KB] ( 2049 )

	66	Research on the Charging Model of Online Game Industry Based on Network Externality
		LI Chang-yin, CHEN Hui-hui, GAO Han
		A new charging model of online game is established in this paper, from the perspective of network externality, which is based on a consistency demand function of online game. The model tests significance of factors such as network externality, user accumulating cost, user structure and conspicuous consumption. Result shows that the network externality and user accumulating cost play a decisive role in the charging model, in addition, the structure of user and conspicuous consumption effect also have certain influence on the charging model choice.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 66-71 [Abstract] ( 2609 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 777KB] ( 2265 )

	72	Study about Different Factor Intensive Manufacturing Agglomeration’s Nonlinear Effect on Efficiency——An Empirical Analysis Based on Negative Externality PSTR Model
		WEI Wei, ZHANG Wan-li
		In this paper, based on the provincial panel data of 17 two-digit manufacturing industries from 2005 to 2011 in China, manufacturing industries are classified according to their production factor intensity. Different factor intensive manufacturing agglomeration’s nonlinear effect on efficiency is studied with the tool of undesirable output data envelopment analysis (DEA) and nonlinear smooth conversion panel methods (PSTR).The empirical results show: (1) The efficiency varies widely on condition that environmental pollution is taken as negative external factor. (2) Different types of manufacturing have different relationships between industry efficiency and agglomeration, but they are mostly in nonlinear relationship; Manufacturing industry is divided into three types as agglomeration-promoting type,agglomeration-decreasing type and excessive agglomeration type. (3) Manufacturing industry of excessive agglomeration type and agglomeration-decreasing type illustrate that the bigger agglomeration is not the better, and the negative effect on efficiency should not be ignored. We should attach great importance to problems such as environmental pollution and traffic congestion, and improve the efficiency of China's manufacturing industry.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 72-77 [Abstract] ( 2331 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 860KB] ( 1951 )

	78	Market Power Estimation of Imperfect Competition Industry——An Extended Research on Lerner Index
		LI Ting
		Based on the neoclassical economics analysis framework, the paper extends the basic market power concept “Lerner index” which applies to monopoly industry. By introduced a basic concept “Oligopolistic Power” which can be measured market power of imperfect competition industry, the paper explores its influencing factors theoretically and empirically. Theoretical analysis shows the oligopolistic power value of imperfect competition industry equals to product of conjectural elasticity and inverse demand-price elasticity. By aggregating oligopolistic power from firm lever to industry lever which provides a foundation for empirical estimation, the paper estimates oligopolistic power of several China's industries and tests conclusions of theoretical research. About anti-monopoly enforcement there has argument between Harvard school's structuralism and Chicago school's behaviorism, however our research shows that both of them only catches one side of oligopoly market. In the anti-monopoly law enforcement structuralism and behaviorism should be combined organically.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 78-83 [Abstract] ( 2641 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 696KB] ( 2141 )

	84	Enterprise Characteristics, Trade Union Service and Evaluation on Employee Labor Relationships
		LUO Ming-zhong, LUO Fa-heng
		An ordered probit regression analysis is performed on the survey data of some enterprise employees in Guangzhou. The result shows that, daily working hours are negatively correlated with evaluation on employee labor relationships. The evaluation on employee labor relationships in state-owned enterprises and foreign-owned enterprises is far higher than that in private-owned enterprises. Enterprise scale is negatively correlated with the evaluation on employee labor relationships. Whether enterprise has trade union is positively correlated with the evaluation on employee labor relationships. The higher the employee satisfaction about trade union services, the higher the evaluation on employee labor relationships. Therefore, to improve the evaluation on employee labor relationships and promote a harmonious employee relationship in an enterprise, it is necessary to strengthen labor law enforcement and intensify strict management on employees’ working hours. In addition, building trade union organization should be strengthened, and the role of the trade union organization should be brought into full play.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 84-89 [Abstract] ( 2397 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 757KB] ( 1599 )

	90	The Demand Hierarchy Model of Online Brand Community Participation——An Exploratory Research Based on Grounded Theory
		YAN Xin-feng, WANG Bing-xu, LIU Chun-hong, CHEN Li-hong
		The formation of Online Brand Community (OBC) make traditional chain customer-enterprise relationship give way to net type relationship. Consumer takes part in the OBC with different demand. Through three level coding and analyzing the posts collected from the online brand community, this study develops a hierarchy model on demand of online brand community participation using the method of grounded theory. The model shows that the demand of online brand community participation can be divided into five levels: functional demand, self-expression, social interaction, respecting, self-realization. For participants with distinct ranking who join in the OBC may have different motivation and subsequent brand support conduct. This paper proposes strategies concerning effective participants’ demand management and targeted incentive policy implement based on the model.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 90-95 [Abstract] ( 3076 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 996KB] ( 2212 )

	96	Research on Innovation Ability of China Manufacture Industry Based on the Perspective of Global Tasks Division
		LI Hui-yan, LI Hong
		Influence model of the global tasks division on human capital accumulation reaches a conclusion that global tasks division promotes the accumulation of human capital of the host country, and is beneficial to the improvement of the innovation ability. Empirical study finds that the degree of China’s participation in the global tasks division increases continually, which has obviously promoted the innovation ability of China’s manufacturing. For high technology-intensive industry, the promotion effect is more obvious. FDI, physical capital accumulation, the level of education and R&D capital also play a positive effect on the increase of innovation ability. To enhance the innovation ability of China’s manufacturing, policy suggestions are proposed.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 96-101 [Abstract] ( 2696 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 826KB] ( 2879 )

	102	Impacts of Environmental Regulation Differences on the Technological Innovation of China Multinational Enterprises——An Exploratory Case Study Based on Haier
		XIAO Peng, HU Xu-ping, LIU Jin-pei, LI Lin
		Focusing on the differences of environmental regulation between developed and developing countries, this paper has adopted the internationalization of Haier as the target of research, with the method of exploratory single case study, to explore the impacts of environmental regulation differences on multinational technological innovation. The environmental regulation differences are reflected in four aspects, including energy efficiency standards, environmental subsidies, the concept of environmental protection and environmental certification. The theoretical analysis of the model built on these four aspects manifests that the environmental regulation differences play an important role in promoting technological innovation. And in the context of global economic integration, only through technological innovation can we achieve a competitive advantage in international market.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 102-107 [Abstract] ( 2565 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 919KB] ( 2519 )

	108	Study on Knowledge Spillover, Transformative Learning, and Small and Medium Enterprise’s (SME) Promoting Mechanism of Innovation Ability
		WU Yong-zhi, ZHANG Ling
		In an open global economic environment, knowledge spillover played a significant role in innovation in SME. An important part of transformative learning is to combine external knowledge and internal resources of SME together, so as to enhance the innovation capability of SME. Through equilibrium analysis of dynamic game on SME and leading enterprises, the results show that the key factors of knowledge transfer and the transfer efficiency lies in two aspects: (1) The speed of knowledge transformative is corresponding to the accumulation of exclusive knowledge of SME and incumbent firm, and the accumulation of common knowledge of the both. (2) The condition of the two enterprises choose to transfer knowledge through cooperation or not must meet that the growth speed of knowledge in condition of cooperation is more than the growth speed in the cooperation of non-cooperation.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 108-113 [Abstract] ( 3428 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 783KB] ( 2183 )

	114	The Influence of Institutional Investors on Chinese GEM Companies’ R&D Expenditure
		LIANG Fan
		In this paper, we carry out an empirical research about the influence of the Chinese GEM companies’ institutional investors on R&D expenditure during the period from 2009 to 2011. Taking into account the number & the annual changing number of institutional investors and the category the institutional investors into securities funds, brokerage firms, social security funds, QFII and others, we find that: (1)Institutional investors have a positive effect on GEM companies’ R&D because of institutions superiority and institutions activism. (2) The positive effect on R&D expenditure by GEM institutional investors is significantly stronger than the other listed companies. (3)Number and changing number of institutional investors also show positive impact. In addition, we also find that security fund has significantly positive influence.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 114-119 [Abstract] ( 2752 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 655KB] ( 1765 )

	120	Research on Educational Talent Development and Management Mechanism Innovation
		ZHANG Tao
		The paper analyzes the key factor of education talent development through building corresponding model, and also does empirical study about such factors impact on talent development. The results show, education talent is the key factor influencing talent development. Education investment also has direct impact on both education talent development and management mechanism innovation. At last, the paper brought forward management mechanism innovation model based on the empirical study.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 120-124 [Abstract] ( 2391 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 920KB] ( 1731 )

	125	A Study on Mutual Influence Mechanism of Human Capital, Technology Progress and Industrial Transformation Based on Nelson-Phelps Model
		XUE Ji-liang
		This study aims to analyze the mutual influence mechanism between human capital, technical progress and industrial transformation. Nelson-Phelps model was approached in this paper with panel data for the period of 2001 to 2010 in 31 provinces of China. The empirical analysis shows that industrial transformation and human capital are the sources of China’s technical progress, and both industrial transformation and human capital facilitate China’s technical progress. Therefore, in order to promote technological progress of China, industrial transformation and human capital accumulation, policy maker must consider regional human capital promotion, innovative capabilities of enterprises, leading industry upgradation and industrial cluster cultivation.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 125-130 [Abstract] ( 2986 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 796KB] ( 1950 )

	131	Salary Gender Differences and Influencing Factors for the Employed-Migrants ——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Dynamic Monitoring Data of the Migrant in 2012
		LUO Jun-feng, TONG Yu-fen
		Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the migrant in 2012 from National Family Planning Commission, the paper analyses the salary gender differences and influencing factors for the employed-migrant by adopting the method of descriptive statistics, Mincer wage equation, Cotton decomposition model. Studies have found that the salary gender differences are even more serious for those who are low level of education, rural household registration, and employed in labour-intensive industries. The salary gender differences are mainly caused by the factors of the gender discrimination and other observations, which greatly affected by the age, the experience and the household registration. It is imminent to accelerate the establishment of a unified labor market and protect the legal rights and interests of female migrants.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 131-136 [Abstract] ( 2594 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 816KB] ( 1741 )

	137	The Effectiveness of House Property Tax Reform Policies
		MA Li, LOU Tian-tian, DUAN Zhong-yuan
		Selecting Shanghai and Chongqing as two samples, this paper examines the performances of house property tax by employing 37 indexes such as the area of land acquisition in 8 categories and using TRAMO / SEATS empirical statistical techniques to identify the structural change point and make predictions. The results show that house property tax do have a influence on the supply and demand structure in real estate market, for example, the supply structure of dwelling size in Shanghai and the alteration of supply amount in Chongqing responded to the house property tax policy to some extent. While price index of housing did not respond significantly, which indicates that other reform measures are required to achieve better policy performance.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 137-142 [Abstract] ( 2442 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1069KB] ( 1671 )

	143	The Stages and Schools of Domestic Research on House Property Tax
		GE Jing, AN Ti-fu
		This paper reviews relevant literature on house property tax reform. The domestic research on house property tax reform is divided into three stages: the initial stage, the debate stage and the reflection stage. Existing research could be categorized into two different schools: the “reformers” and “conservatives”. Reformers are supporters for the immediate implementation of individual residential real estate tax. Conservatives believe that the current legal system and the institutional environment are not ready for the immediate introduction of property tax. The paper reviews both sides, and analyzes their contribution and thinking differences.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 143-149 [Abstract] ( 2601 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1548KB] ( 1878 )

	150	How Do Home Mortgage Loans Affect Household Financial Assets Allocation ——An Empirical Research Based on Household Statement
		ZHOU Hong
		House mortgage loans have become one of the most important financial consumption behaviors of China household. Combined with household financial statements, the analysis shows that home mortgage loans reduce the proportion of bank deposits in the financial assets. It also decreases the total amount of household financial assets though “push-out effect” at the same time, and also has significant impact on household financial assets allocation. By use of method of propensity scores matching (PSM), the empirical research demonstrates that the total amount of financial assets and proportions of bank deposits in households with home mortgage loans are significantly lower than that in households without home mortgage loans, which is coincide with the theoretical research. Overall, in the process of house purchasing with home mortgage loans during the current period, the condition of household financial assets allocation is heavily affected by home mortgage loans.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 150-155 [Abstract] ( 2790 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 794KB] ( 2118 )

	156	Study on Measurement on General Entropy Index about the Convergence of Fiscal Expenditure of Public Health——Taking Guangxi as an Example
		LAN Xiang-jie
		This article makes the degree of equalization of fiscal expenditure of public health as research object, and conducts extensive and in-depth research on convergence of public health service in Guangxi from urban and rural dimensions from 2005 to 2010, using the Model of General Entropy Index. The research results show that, in Guangxi since 2007, the main contradiction of convergence of fiscal expenditure of public health exists in regional inequality. Secondary contradiction is inequality between urban and rural areas, at the same time, the regional urban and rural internal inequality shows a rising trend in Guangxi. Accordingly, we should identify the priorities of convergence effect on fiscal policy and make policy recommendations on related fiscal reform.
		2015 Vol. 32 (1): 156-160 [Abstract] ( 2636 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 610KB] ( 1817 )

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