经济增长、产业结构与碳排放关系的实证分析—

摘要笔者在分析作用机制的基础上,根据我国1995年～2011年间的样本数据,建立经济增长、产业结构与碳排放之间的面板向量自回归模型(PVAR),并运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解法进行实证研究。研究发现经济增长、产业结构与碳排放之间存在长期均衡关系;经济增长与碳排放之间存在非对称关系,经济增长是影响碳排放的重要因素,但从长期来看碳排放不是经济增长的动因;产业结构与碳排放之间存在双向动态关系,产业结构是影响碳排放的重要因素,从长期来看碳排放量的变化有利于促进产业结构优化升级。

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	陶长琪
	彭永樟
	琚泽霞

关键词：经济增长产业结构碳排放 PVAR模型

Abstract： Based on the mechanism of action, this paper presents a PVAR model among economic growth, industrial structure and carbon emissions based on the sample data of China during the period of 1995 to 2011. By means of the impulse response function and variance decomposition method, it is found that: (1) There is a long-run equilibrium relationships among economic growth, industrial structure and carbon emissions. (2) Asymmetrical relationship exists between economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth is an important factor that affects carbon emissions, but carbon emission is not the motivation of economic growth in the long-run. (3) Bi-directional dynamic relationship exists between industrial structure and carbon emissions, industrial structure is an important factor that affects carbon emissions, and in the long-run the change of carbon emissions is conducive to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.

Keywords： Economic Growth Industrial Structure Carbon Emissions Panel Vector Auto-regression Model

收稿日期 2014-04-28; 接受日期 2015-07-29;

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(71073073,71273122,71473109,41461025);江西省高等学校科技落地项目(KJLD13032);江西省高校哲学社会科学研究重点招标项目(ZD05)

作者简介: 陶长琪(1967-),男,江西临川人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事数量经济学研究。

引用本文:

陶长琪,彭永樟,琚泽霞.经济增长、产业结构与碳排放关系的实证分析——基于PVAR模型[J]. 经济经纬, 2015,4: 126-131

TAO Chang-qi, PENG Yong-zhang, JU Ze-xia.An Empirical Study on Economic Growth, Industrial Structure and the Carbon Emissions——Based on PVAR Model[J] Economic Survey, 2015,V31(4): 126-131

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2015/V31/I4/126