中国省域经济增长对人力资本影响的系统动力学分析

摘要基于系统动力学原理,笔者构建了经济增长与人力资本系统模型,从理论上解析了系统动力学之于人力资本与经济增长关系的适用性,并验证了所构建系统的合理性。基于此,实证考察了1982年~2012年我国31个省区经济增长作用于人力资本的路径特征与影响强度。结果表明各省区经济增长对人力资本的影响程度存在较大差异,东部地区大致呈下降趋势,东北地区则很平缓,中部地区与西部地区的情况较为复杂。

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	张旭
	陈希兰
	逯进

关键词：人力资本经济增长系统动力学

Abstract： Based on system dynamics, the paper builds a systematic model of both economic growth and human capital. Then it examines the applicability of system dynamics in the relationship between human capital and economic growth, and verifies the rationality of the constructed system from the two aspects of theory and practice to comprehensively analyze economic growth effects on the human capital level. Based on this, the paper also analyzes the economic growth effect on the path of the human capital characteristics and impact strength using the data of 31 provinces in China from 1982 to 2012. Results show that the influence degree of the economic growth on human capital is put in bigger difference in provinces, the eastern region is roughly a downward trend, the northeast is very smooth, and the situation of the central region and western region is more complicated.

Keywords： Human Capital Economic Growth System Dynamics

收稿日期 2013-12-24; 接受日期 2015-07-29;

基金资助:国家社会科学基金项目(12CRK024);国家自然科学基金项目(71473233);青岛大学科研专项(QDXY201526)

作者简介: 张旭(1969-),男,内蒙阿拉善人,博士,教授,主要从事区域经济研究;陈希兰(1991-),女,湖南常德人,硕士研究生,主要从事区域经济研究;逯进(1974-),男,甘肃兰州人,博士,教授,主要从事区域经济、宏观经济研究。

引用本文:

张旭,陈希兰,逯进.中国省域经济增长对人力资本影响的系统动力学分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2015,4: 132-137

ZHANG Xu, CHEN Xi-lan, LU Jin.The Influence of Economic Growth on the Human Capital Based on System Dynamics in Chinese Provinces[J] Economic Survey, 2015,V31(4): 132-137

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2015/V31/I4/132