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    长三角县域经济增长的时空差异与影响因素
赵丹1, 孙东琪2, 陈明星2
1.南京大学 社会学院,江苏 南京 210093;
2.中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    Research on Spatial-temporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Economic Growth of Counties in Yangtze River Delta
    ZHAO Dan1, SUN Dongqi2, CHEN Mingxing2
1.School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
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摘要 以1990—2017年为研究时段,以长三角地区63个县域单元为研究对象,运用变异系数、锡尔指数及其二阶分解测算其总体和内部经济差异,基于ESDA方法分析其经济差异空间格局,并运用空间回归模型探究全球化、市场化、分权化和本土化因素对长三角县域经济差异的作用机制。结果表明:(1)1990—2017年长三角县域经济差异整体呈下降趋势,市内和市间差异对总体差异的贡献率较大,经济差异在小尺度上更为明显;(2)1990—2017年长三角县域经济呈现空间集聚的格局,极化效应显著,整体呈现非均衡发展,但其局部发展较为协调;(3)全球化、市场化、分权化、本土化是影响长三角县域经济增长和空间差异形成的有效因素,其中分权化对于各时期的经济增长都有显著促进作用,市场化在20世纪90年代初影响较大而后有所衰落,全球化则在21世纪初影响最大。本土化因素始终是长三角县域经济差异增大的重要因素,尤其是工业化水平和资本规模,劳动力数量对长三角区域差异的影响由负面抑制作用逐渐转为正向促进作用。
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赵丹
孙东琪
陈明星
关键词： 长三角   区域一体化   区域差异   经济增长     
Abstract： Regional economic disparities have great influences on national economy and social development which cannot be ignored, and it has been one of the core issues of research on regional economics. The paper took 1990-2017 as the research period and 63 counties in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) as the research object, using the coefficient of variation, Theil index and its second order decomposition to calculate the overall and internal economic differences. The paper analyzed the spatial pattern of economic differences based on ESDA method, and used the spatial regression model to explore globalization, marketization, decentralization and localization in the mechanism of economic differences of counties in YRD. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2017, the overall economic differences of counties showed a trend of convergence. As for YRD, the regional inequality is more obvious in small scale units. (2) From 1990 to 2017, there was a significant positive spatial correlation among the economy of YRD, and the county economy showed a polarized trend with an overall unbalanced development, while the local economic development in YRD is relatively coordinated. (3) Globalization, marketization, decentralization and localization all participate in the formation of regional inequality. To be specific, decentralization has a significant role in promoting economic growth in each period, marketization has greater influence in the early 1990s, and globalization is the most influential factor in the early 21st century. Localization has always been an important factor for the increase of regional disparities in YRD, especially the industrialization level and the capital scale. The impact of the quantity of labor force on regional inequality has gradually turned from a negative effect to a positive effect under the new circumstances.
Keywords： Yangtze River Delta   Economic Integration   Regional Disparities   Economic Growth     
收稿日期 2019-08-01; 接受日期 ;
基金资助:国家自然科学优秀青年基金项目(41822104);国家自然科学基金项目(41971162)
通讯作者 陈明星(1982— ),男,安徽巢湖人,博士,研究员,国家自然科学优秀青年基金获得者,主要从事城镇化与区域发展研究。   
作者简介: 赵丹(1988— ),男,河北石家庄人,博士研究生,主要从事城市与区域发展研究;孙东琪(1985— ),男,山东单县人,博士,副研究员,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。
引用本文:   
赵丹, 孙东琪, 陈明星.长三角县域经济增长的时空差异与影响因素[J].  经济经纬, 2020,4: 1-10
ZHAO Dan1, SUN Dongqi2, CHEN Mingxing2.Research on Spatial-temporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Economic Growth of Counties in Yangtze River Delta[J]  Economic Survey, 2020,V37(4): 1-10
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