Does the Increase of Openness Promote Regional Economic Growth? —An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of Countries Along the “one Belt and one Road”
MA Wei1,CAO Xiao-shu2,LI Tao2,GAO Xing-chuan1
1.College of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China; 2.Center for Land Resource Research in Northwest China,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China
Abstract：
Based on the panel data of 66 countries from 2000 to 2015, this paper systematically examines the impact of openness on economic growth of countries along the “Belt and Road” (BRI) by developing a comprehensive evaluation index system of openness and adopting the panel data model. The empirical results show that first, openness presents a rising trend year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.24%. Second, on the whole, openness has a significant positive impact on economic growth, but shows no Kuznets Curve effect. Third, from a temporal perspective, openness significantly promoted economic growth from 2000 to 2008, but after 2008, the impact showed a downward trend. Fourth, from a regional perspective, openness has a greater positive impact on economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe, Community of Independent States and South Asia, as opposed to that on Central Asia、West Asia/North Africa. At last, from the perspective of countries with different economic levels, there exists a spindle effect. In other words, openness has a greater positive impact on upper and middle income countries and a smaller impact on other countries
MA Wei,CAO Xiao-shu,LI Tao,GAO Xing-chuan.Does the Increase of Openness Promote Regional Economic Growth? —An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of Countries Along the “one Belt and one Road”[J] Economic Survey, 2019,V36(5): 64-71
陈升,潘虹.2015.中国省域开放度的影响因素实证研究——基于1998—2012年省际面板数据的分析[J].经济问题探索(6):1-9. 陈镜宇.2017.资本账户开放能促进经济长期增长吗?——基于新古典增长理论的研究[J].经济经纬(5):62-67. 陈永志,钟春洋.2006.三大差距与社会和谐[J].当代经济研究(5):48-51. 郭旭红,陈三攀.2014.经济开放度的再测算与中国经济增长[J].华东经济管理(11):47-52. 胡国珠,郑文清,夏凡,等.2014.对外开放度与江苏经济增长关系的区域差异研究[J].华东经济管理(11):5-10. 康继军,张宗益,傅蕴英.2007.开放经济下的经济增长模型:中国的经验[J].数量经济技术经济研究(1):3-12. 李秋雨,朱麟奇,刘继生.2017.中国入境旅游的经济增长效应与空间差异性研究[J].地理科学(10):1552-1559. 林发勤,冯帆,符大海.2018.国际贸易与经济增长一定是线性关系吗——基于中国省级面板数据的因果效应再估计[J].国际贸易问题(8):11-23. 潘凤.2018.对外开放、政府规模与经济增长——基于1978—2015年我国省域面板数据的实证分析[J].软科学 (4):31-34. 司增绰,周坤.2017.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家产业贸易关系研究[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版)(6):23-34. 随洪光,余李,段鹏飞.2017.外商直接投资、汇率甄别与经济增长质量——基于中国省级样本的经验分析[J]. 经济科学(2):59-73. 陶雄华,谢寿琼.2017.金融开放、空间溢出与经济增长——基于中国31省份数据的实证研究[J].宏观经济研究(5):10-20. 田卫民.2017.金融发展缘何抑制了经济增长——来自中国省际面板数据的经验证据[J].经济问题(1):27-32. 王镝,杨娟.2018.“一带一路”沿线国家风险评级研究[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版)(4):117-126. 熊灵,魏伟,杨勇.2012.贸易开放对中国区域增长的空间效应研究:1987—2009[J].经济学(季刊) (2):1037-1058. 殷杰,刘雅芳.2017.“一带一路”沿线欧洲诸国旅游开放度研究[J].经济地理(6):190-197. 张同斌,刘俸奇.2018.贸易开放度与经济增长动力——基于产能利用和资本深化途径的再检验[J].国际贸易问题(1):20-31. 张永升,杨伟坤,荣晨.2014.金融开放与经济增长:基于发达国家与发展中国家的实证分析[J].财政研究 (3):78-80. 赵哲,陈烨,吴钢.2016.美国金融危机对全球贸易网络影响的测度研究[J].宏观经济研究(2):150-159. 周春山,黄婉玲,刘扬.2018.中国城市经济开放度时空演化及影响因素[J].地域研究与开发(2):1-8. ANTONAKAKIS N,DRAGOUNI M,FILIS G.2015.How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe?[J]. Economic Modelling,44:142-155. CHINN M D,ITO H.2008. A new measure of financial openness[J]. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice,10(3):309-322. CURWIN K D,MAHUTGA M C.2014. Foreign direct investment and economic growth: New evidence from post-socialist transition countries[J]. Social Forces,92(3):1159-1187. EDWARDS S.1998. Openness, productivity and growth: What do we really know?[J]. Economic Journal,108(3):383-398. GROSSMAN G,HELPMAN E.1991. Innovation and growth in the global economy[M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press. IBRAHIM M,ALAGIDEDE P.2018. Nonlinearities in financial development-economic growth nexus: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa[J]. Research in International Business & Finance,46:95-104. KRUGMAN P,HELPMAN E.1985. Market structure and foreign trade[M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press. LIU H,FANG C,MIAO Y,et al.2018. Spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road 1950-2050[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,28(7):919-936. POLAT A,SHAHBAZ M,REHMAN I U,et al.2015. Revisiting linkages between financial development, trade openness and economic growth in South Africa: Fresh evidence from combined cointegration test[J]. Quality & Quantity,49(2):785-803. RODRIGUEZ F,RODRIK D.2000. Trade policy and economic growth: A skeptic guide to the cross-national evidence[J]. NBER Macroeconomics Annual,15:261-325. ROMER P M.1986. Increasing returns and long-run growth[J]. Journal of Political Economy,94(5):1002-1037.
2019 
