个人所得税流失估算研究——基于发现-控制模型的实证分析

摘要运用个人所得税税收征管和稽查的微观数据,采用发现-控制模型,对样本纳税人的整体个人所得税流失率进行研究。实证结果表明,样本纳税人的整体个人所得税流失率在50%左右,纳税人的收入、边际税率和工薪收入占比极大地影响着纳税人的偷逃税动机,而纳税人的年龄、婚姻状况和是否属于税务部门重点监控的群体不对纳税人偷逃税产生显著的影响。为此提高税务稽查覆盖率和税务稽查人员素质对减少个人所得税的流失有着较为显著的影响。

	Service

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	Email Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	马念谊
	靳友雯

关键词：个人所得税税收流失估算发现-控制模型影响因素

Abstract： Adopting the micro data from personal income tax collection and inspection,this paper studies the overall rate of individual income tax loss based on the sample taxpayers and the detection and control model. The findings suggest that the overall rate of individual income tax loss is about 50%. The tax evasion motivation is greatly influenced by the taxpayer’s income, marginal tax rate and the proportion of salary income whereas age, marital status of and the taxpayer’s affiliation to the key monitoring group of tax authorities do not show any significant impact. The improvement of the coverage rate of tax inspection and the quality of tax inspectors has a significant impact on reducing the loss rate of personal income tax.

Keywords： Individual Income Tax Tax Loss Estimation Detection and Control Model Influencing Factors

收稿日期 2018-09-16; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(71863001);广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题(18BJY004);广西学位与研究生教育改革课题(JGY2018128)

作者简介: 马念谊(1976— ),女,广西柳州人,博士,高级经济师,主要从事财税理论与政策研究;靳友雯(1981— ),女,山东济宁人,博士,副研究员,主要从事财政政策及区域经济研究。

引用本文:

马念谊, 靳友雯.个人所得税流失估算研究——基于发现-控制模型的实证分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2019,4: 149-156

MA Nian-yi, JIN You-wen.Estimation of Individual Income Tax Loss —An Empirical Analysis of Detection and Control Model[J] Economic Survey, 2019,V36(4): 149-156

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2019/V36/I4/149

董旸,隋大鹏.2008.个人所得税流失规模的实证研究——以山东省为例[J]. 统计与决策(8):137-138.
   贾绍华.2016.我国税收流失的测算分析与治理对策探讨[J].会计之友(13):2-9.
   马婧雯.2018.基于公平视角的我国个人所得税税收流失成因及治理研究[D].上海:上海海关学院.
   马骁,陈建东,蒲明.2011.我国个人所得税的征收及调节收入差距效果的研究:以2008年四川省和安徽省城镇住户月度调查数据为例[J].财贸经济(2):18-24.
   李一花,董旸,罗强.2010.个人所得税收入能力与税收流失的实证研究——以山东省为例[J]. 经济评论(2):94-99.
   李伟,王少国.2015.中国各省份个税潜力估算及影响因素分析[J]. 财政研究(1):25-31.
   苏策.2016. 高收入人群个人所得税流失问题研究[D].北京:中央民族大学.
   晏华,夏太彪,陈建东.2016.个人所得税收入流失率抽样调查[J].税务研究(11):48-52.
   张宏杰.2018.我国高收入人群个人所得税流失问题分析 [J].纳税(4):13 -14.
   张洋,张辉,解忠诚.2017.基于RTS法的中国城镇居民个人所得税的税收能力分析 [J].中国传媒大学学报(自然科学版)(6):47-52.
   ALM J,BAHL R,MURRAY M.1990.Tax structure and tax compliance [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, 36(4): 603-613.
   ANDREONI J, ERARD B,FEINSTEIN J.1998.Tax compliance [J].Journal of Economic Literature,42(2):818-860.
   BIRD R,ZOLT W.2005. Redistribution via taxation: The limited role of personal income tax in developing countries[J].UCLA Law Review,14(6):1627-1695.
   CLOTFELER C.1983.Tax evasion and tax rates: An analysis of individual returns[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,12(3):363-373.
   ERARD B,FEINSTEIN J S.2007.Econometric models for multi-stage audit processes: An application to the IRS national research program [Z].Georgia State University International Studies Program Working Paper.
   FEINSTEIN J S.1990.Detection controlled estimation [J].The Journal of Law and Economics, 12(1):233-276.
   FEINSTEIN J S.1991.An econometric analysis of income tax evasion and it′s detection [J].Journal of Economics,88 (2): 14-35.