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Economic Survey

	2019 Vol.36 Issue.6 Published 2019-11-10

	1	Does Economic Structure Imbalance Restrict Economic Growth in Northeast China? ——Based on the Structure Equation Modeling
		JIA Zhan-hua, GU Guo-feng
		By constructing an index system of the economic structure imbalance measurement and using the factor analysis method, this paper evaluates the economic structure imbalance level of Northeast China in 2015, and examines the impact of economic structure imbalance on economic growth based on the structural equation model. The results show that the imbalance of economic structure in Northeast China is at a moderate level in all. The rank of imbalance level from high to low is as follows:investment and consumption structure, regional economic structure, financial structure, payments structure, industrial structure. The structural equation model reveals that different structural elements induce different effects on economic growth. For example, the imbalance of financial structure, regional economic structure and investment and consumption structure inhibit economic growth, but industrial structure and regional economic structure still promote economic growth even though they are moderate unbalance. In the future, the industrial structure and the international payments structure should be optimized, the financial industry be developed, the investment and consumption structure as well as regional economic structure be improved. In addition, coordinating various structural elements is also important to achieve sustainable, healthy and stable economic growth in Northeast China.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 1-8 [Abstract] ( 1150 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1840KB] ( 886 )

	9	An Analysis of The Migrants’ Wage Distribution and Its Influence Factors in and among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region ——Based on Data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2015
		YUAN Qing-chuan, YI Ding-hong
		Based on the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2015, by employing the least square estimation of Recentered Influence Function in combination with the decomposition of the Blinder-Oaxaca,this paper systematically studies the wage distribution of migrants in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its influencing factors. The results show that the current migrants in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are mainly the transfer of peasant-workers in the process of urbanization, population flow aimed at improving the quality of job matching has not yet taken shape. It is also found that among the migrants in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, productivity endowments of the migrants in Beijing get the highest labor reward, but the agricultural household registration gives them the most obvious wage disadvantage, and the inter-provincial migrants empowered by industry advantage wages in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei have improved the employment structure. Thus, to realize the orderly flow of population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei for the employment matching, related governments should remove administrative barriers for population flow in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, attenuate the association between additional benefits and household registration, and improve the mechanism of labor market returns on productivity endowment.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 9-16 [Abstract] ( 900 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 874KB] ( 1163 )

	17	An Analysis of Eco-efficiency of Regional Green Investment in China Based on Three-stage DEA Model
		LIU Zhao
		Based on a three-stage DEA model which is constructed by introducing three environmental factors-regional gross domestic product (GDP), fiscal expenditure and urban population, a systematic empirical study on green investment and ecological improvement in different provinces in China from 2007 to 2016 is carried out by the author of this paper. The study results show that the three-stage DEA model can adjust the impact of environmental factors and random errors on the ecological efficiency of green investment, and the estimated ecological efficiency of green investment is more scientific and reasonable. Compared with the adjusted ecological efficiency of green investment, the technical efficiency is overestimated before the adjustment, while the scale efficiency is underestimated. During 2007-2016, the average resource waste of the ecological efficiency of green investment in China reached 40.5%; the scale of green investment was uneconomic, which is the main reason of resources waste. In 2007-2016, only 55.17% of the tested provinces whose ecological efficiency of green investment were effective; the effective years of green investment ecological efficiency only accounted for 18.97% of the tested years, and most provinces and years were in the ineffective state of DEA.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 17-24 [Abstract] ( 930 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 891KB] ( 713 )

	25	Social Endowment, Intergenerational Support and Land Transfer: A Research Based on CHARLS
		LYU Shou-jun, DAI Zheng, SUN Jian
		At present, the key restrictive factor of land transfer in China is the social security function of land, especially the social endowment function of land. In order to promote land transfer, the social and family old-age securities must be strengthened, so as to reduce the social security function of land. This paper takes the data of CHARLS2015 as a sample, and uses Logit regression model and Tobit regression model to analyze the impact mechanism of social and family old-age securities on rural families’land transfer behavior and land transfer rate. It is found that participating in the new rural insurance system can significantly inhibit farmers’ land transfer behavior and reduce transfer rate, while pensioner farmers are more inclined to transfer land and the transfer rate is higher; the financial support of their offspring to their parents has a positive effect on land transfer, while life care has a significant inhibitory effect on land transfer and transfer rate. At the end of this paper, some policy suggestions are put forward.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 25-31 [Abstract] ( 900 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1002KB] ( 800 )

	32	The Impact of Economic Growth and Public Investment on Poverty Reduction in China
		ZHOU Yang, TONG Chun-yang
		By using the provincial scale panel data from 1985 to 2016, this paper establishes an econometric model to analyze the evolution of the poverty population and the incidence of poverty in China’s rural areas, to measure the poverty reduction effect of economic growth, public investment and policy evolution. The results show that economic growth has played a major role in poverty alleviation in rural areas. The growth of agricultural production has a significant impact on the reduction of poverty incidence. However, with the development of society, the poverty reduction effect of economic growth presents a law of diminishing marginal effect. In the new stage of poverty alleviation and development, public investment in rural areas can drive the poor out of poverty. At the same time, supplementing targeted poverty alleviation and social security policies will also help reduce the incidence of poverty. Therefore, rural infrastructure needs to be increased in the near future. Public service investment is also an important means of alleviating rural poverty. The findings of this paper can provide decision support for a new round of poverty reduction policies and the smooth development of the rural reform strategy after 2020.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 32-39 [Abstract] ( 954 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1509KB] ( 865 )

	40	Poverty Reduction Effect of Urban Renewal ——An Empirical Test Based on Space Panel Model
		HE Chun, LIU Rong-zeng
		Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016, this paper uses the spatial autocorrelation model to conduct a theoretical analysis and empirical research on the impact of urban renewal on urban poverty in China. The results show that urban renewal affects urban poverty through employment creation, upgrading human capital, increasing living costs and reducing labor participation rate; urban renewal levels in different regions show different characteristics:urban renewal levels in eastern regions are the highest, followed by central regions and the weakest in western regions; urban poverty among provinces in China shows strong spatial dependence. Urban renewal is conducive to the reduction of urban poverty, mainly through employment creation and improvement of human capital level. The upgrading of industrial structure, unemployment insurance level and medical level also contributes to the reduction of urban poverty. Finally, on the basis of the research, this paper puts forward the policy enlightenment of determining the urban renewal mechanism with public participation, enriching the housing assistance system and strengthening the employment training for urban poor residents.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 40-46 [Abstract] ( 886 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1115KB] ( 1145 )

	47	Reconstruction of Pulling Force on Agricultural Labor and Its Effect in China
		LI Xiao-feng, LI Shan-shan
		For the agricultural labor,the urban-rural income gap is the most critical “pull” factor to induce its mobility. When calculating the urban-rural income gap, the consumption factor as the flow cost should be counted in the calculation framework of “pull”.This paper reconstructs the urban-rural net income gap involved with consumption factors, and establishes the urban-rural net income gap model and error correction model to respectively estimate the long-term and short-term co-integration relationship between the urban-rural net income gap and agricultural labor mobility. The results suggest that there is a co-integration relationship between rural-urban net income gap and migrant workers, which plays an important role for agricultural labor to flow into urban cities. Meanwhile, rural-urban consumption gap which is taken as flow cost slows down pulling force of rural-urban income gap to the scale of agricultural labor flow: both seen in the long and short terms, when the urban-rural net income gap increases, the scale of agricultural labor flow grows smaller.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 47-54 [Abstract] ( 860 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1066KB] ( 841 )

	55	The Impact of Chinese FDI on the Development of Manufacturing Industry of African Resource Dependent Countries
		ZHENG Yan-xia, ZHU Dan-dan, HUANG Mei-bo
		Based on the panel data of 20 African resource dependent countries from 2003 to 2017, the empirical study shows that Chinese FDI has positive effect on the growth of manufacturing industry of African resource dependent countries. It is found that the impact is mainly realized through technology spillover and infrastructure development, which indicates that the investment cooperation between China and Africa is an important force to boost Africa’s industrialization, and refutes the idea that China is trying to do neo-colonialism in Africa. In addition, the study also finds that the development of Africa’s manufacturing industry needs to be optimized in terms of its trade structure, the suppression of informal economy, and the improvement of infrastructure.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 55-61 [Abstract] ( 1058 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 847KB] ( 855 )

	62	Trade Promotion Effect of Trade Agreements between the Countries along “The Belt and Road” ——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Propensity Score Matching Model
		ZHENG Jian, ZHOU Shu-dong
		Nowadays China is actively promoting the Free Trade Area Strategy and working out the Belt and Road Initiative. Based on the propensity score matching model and bilateral trade data of countries along the Belt and Road, this paper analyzes the effect of trade agreements on trade flow between countries along the Belt and Road, and estimates trade effects of trade agreements with different degrees of economic integration. The results show that the classical gravity model underestimates the effects of trade agreements. Trade Agreements not only increase trade between member countries, also can better intrigue the potentials of country pairs without agreements. The deeper degree of integration, the greater effects of trade agreements on trade. Robust tests based on different model specifications support the above conclusions.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 62-69 [Abstract] ( 1053 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 913KB] ( 920 )

	70	Trade Liberalization and the Rise of Global Value Chains in China’s Manufacturing Industry ——An Empirical Research Based on the Panel Data of 30 Provinces and Cities in China
		TU Nian-song, XUE Dan-qing
		This paper examines the trade liberalization’s impact on the upgrading of the global value chain status of China’s manufacturing industry. Based on the data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2016, this paper studies the evolutionary characteristics of the global value chain status of China’s manufacturing industry from the regional level and different technology types. The results show that: on the whole, the manufacturing industry in the central region has certain competitive advantages compared with the eastern and western regions. Labor-intensive and resource-based industries are the dominant industries in China’s export competition, the international competitiveness of technology-intensive industries is increasing, and the traditional resource-based heavy industry is weak. In addition, in the study of the relationship between trade liberalization and the rise of the global value chain of manufacturing, it is found that, first of all, trade liberalization can promote the global value chain of high-tech manufacturing, and its impact on the central region is particularly obvious. Secondly, trade liberalization is unfavorable to the rise of the global value chain of China’s technology manufacturing industry in the eastern, central and western regions. Finally, trade liberalization has negative and positive impacts on the global value chain of low-tech manufacturing in the east and central regions respectively, but its influence in western region is not obvious.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 70-77 [Abstract] ( 1005 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1288KB] ( 1017 )

	78	The Impact of High-tech Products Import on China’s Human Capital Accumulation
		ZHAO Chun-ming, GU Jun-yi
		Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2002 to 2016, this paper uses the system generalized method of moments to explore the impact of high-tech imports on the accumulation of human capital in China. The results show that: (1) the increase of per capita GDP brought about by the import of high-tech products will relax the credit constraints of workers’ investment in education and promote the accumulation of human capital; (2) foreign direct investment promotes the accumulation of human capital through the spillover effect of knowledge and technology, but these effects also show great regional differences; (3) based on different education levels, the increase of import of high-tech products will lead to a significant increase of human capital in higher education, while the impact on human capital in basic education and secondary education is not significant.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 78-86 [Abstract] ( 986 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 947KB] ( 869 )

	87	Can Venture Capital Break the “Solow Paradox” of R&D?
		QIU Yu, PAN Pan
		Under the “new normal” of China’s economy, breaking the “solow paradox” of R&D is the key for firms to break through technical barriers and achieve strategic change. Based on the two dimensions of innovation input and innovation output with the data of GEM listed firms from 2009-2015, this paper examines the relationship between venture capital (VC) and firms’ R&D performance. The results show that, firstly, VC improves the firms’ R&D performance and helps to break the “solow paradox” of R&D. Specifically, VC reduces R&D investment and increases the patent output. Secondly, this correlation is more significant in areas with slow market progress or in domestic enterprises with relatively backward technology and management experience. Thirdly, the results still hold after using DEA efficiency evaluation as proxy variable of firms’ R&D performance. Further tests show that, VC-financed firms transform more R&D achievements into future performance.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 87-94 [Abstract] ( 1046 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 910KB] ( 873 )

	95	The Impact of Government R&D Funding on the Innovation Efficiency of High-tech Industry ——A Study from the Perspective of Optimal Scale
		REN Bao-xian, WANG Hong-qing
		Based on the provincial panel data of China’s high-tech industry from 2009 to 2016, this paper constructs a stochastic frontier approach model (SFA) to measure the innovation efficiency of high-tech industry. From the perspective of optimal R&D funding scale, this paper studies the non-linear impact of government R&D funding on innovation efficiency of high-tech industry and the impact of enterprise size on optimal R&D funding intensity. Then, the characteristics and interval distribution of the optimal R&D funding intensity in high-tech industry are analyzed. Finally, the efficiency losses caused by deviation from the optimal R&D funding intensity are measured. It is found that the impact of government R&D funding on innovation efficiency of high-tech industry can be illustrated as an inverted “U” curve, and the scale of enterprises will improve the optimal R&D funding intensity. At present, government R&D funding brings more “crowding-in effect”. The gap between R&D funding intensity and optimal R&D funding intensity in the eastern region is the largest, followed by the central region and the western region. The loss of innovation efficiency of the national high-tech industry has an upward trend, and there is a largest efficiency loss in the eastern region and the middle and western regions are relatively small.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 95-102 [Abstract] ( 863 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1021KB] ( 847 )

	103	A Research on Contingency Mechanism of Formal and Informal Communication and Its Matching: Based on the Perspective of CAS
		WU Liang, LYU Hong-jiang
		Based on the concepts of “legal system” and “shadow system” of the complex adaptive systems theory and the variable of contextual ambidexterity capability, this paper proposes three path patterns to discuss the contingency mechanism of formal and informal communication and its matching on performance. The results indicate that formal communication affects short-term performance through contextual exploitation capability, and the informal communication has a hindrance effect. Informal communication affects long-term performance through contextual exploration capability. The matching between them affects performance through contextual ambidexterity capability, and both play a compensatory effect. In addition, industry type plays a moderated mediator role in formal and informal communication separately.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 103-109 [Abstract] ( 885 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 843KB] ( 724 )

	110	Compensation Regulation Policy and Compensation Equity —A Test Based on PSM-DID Method
		DU Shan, WANG Sheng-nian
		Taking the “Pay Ceiling Order” issued in 2009 as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper empirically examines the effects of executive compensation regulation on compensation equity through PSM-DID method. The results show that: compensation regulation improves the internal equity and on-the-job consumption of executives in local-government-owned enterprises, but does not impact the external equity. Findings from further analysis are that compensation regulation enhances the incentive effect of internal compensation equity on enterprise performance, and enhances the inhibitory effect of on-the-job consumption on enterprise performance.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 110-116 [Abstract] ( 879 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 825KB] ( 733 )

	117	Expenditure Decision in Cultural Consumption: Value Perception,Reference Group Influence and Resource Constraints
		LI Zhi-lan, NIU Quan-bao, LI Dong-jin
		This paper divides cultural consumption into two dimensions-money spending and time spending, and then analyzes the main influencing factors for individuals to make decisions on the amount of money and time spent from the microscopic perspective. The results show that escapist value and price perception are the main drivers on the amount of money and time spent for different types of cultural consumption, and hedonic value only has a positive impact on the amount of time spent on internet culture consumption. Social value has a positive impact on the amount of money and time spent on cultural media consumption, but it has a negative effect on the amount of time spent on culture and art consumption.Income can promote the amount of money and time spent on different types of cultural consumption, and leisure time only has a significant impact on the amount of money spent on leisure & entertainment consumption. Reference group influence plays an important role in spending decisions, and the moderation effect of cultural supply environment in the relationship between resource constraints and expenditure decisions is partially confirmed.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 117-124 [Abstract] ( 769 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 885KB] ( 750 )

	125	The Internal Linkage Mechanism of Credit Scale Change Among Departments ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Cases in the United States
		XIE Qiao-yan
		Based on the credit scale data of the U.S. government, residents, finance and enterprises from 1952 to 2016, this paper empirically studies the inter sector linkage mechanism of credit scale change from multiple perspectives. The empirical results show that: the change of credit scale not only exists between single sectors, but also has a strong transmission effect in the joint change of two or three sectors. In the linkage mechanism of the change of credit scale of four sectors, the financial sector is in the core position in risk contagion, with the strongest transmission, and is not easily affected by other sectors; the residents' risk transmission is the weakest; the government sector is most vulnerable to other sectors. In the three levels of credit risk transmission process, the first, second and third levels of the linkage of credit scale increases successively. This study is of great significance to China's credit governance, especially for the prevention of systematic risks caused by disordered changes in credit scale.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 125-132 [Abstract] ( 816 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 987KB] ( 703 )

	133	Food Scandal Report and Market Structure Response
		WEN Hong-xing, HAN Qing, LU Qian-wen
		This paper uses the QUAIDS model to study the structural response of meat demand triggered by scandals of pork food safety reported by the mainstream media, which supplements empirical evidence from China in this field. The results show that food scandal report is an important incentive for China’s meat consumption structure adjustment. In recent years, the highly frequent exposure of pork food safety incidents from the mainstream media has had a negative contagion effect on the pork demand market, which has positively affected the chicken demand market. The competitive effect has no significant impact on the market demand for beef and mutton. It shows that when pork food safety incidents are frequently exposed, repeated scandal information stimuli will change the habit of consumer preferences, shift pork consumption mainly to chicken.Further research finds that although the current media has veered its wheels from pork food safety issues, consumers’ demand for food scandal exposure has not shown a “desensitization” feature.This paper is of great significance for understanding the changes in the rules of consumer meat consumption structure under food safety incidents, and the formulation of related policies.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 133-140 [Abstract] ( 956 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1215KB] ( 1175 )

	141	The Effect of Asset Mispricing on Corporate Capital Expenditure under Short Selling Pressure
		ZHANG Xiao-fei, ZHANG Zhong-hua
		Taking the A-share non-financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during 2010-2016 as samples, using the M/B ratio decomposition and residual income valuation model to measure stock mispricing, the paper studies the real effect of stock mispricing under short selling pressure. The results show that stock mispricing is positively correlated with corporate investment level, indicating that there are significant investment catering behaviors, and stock mispricing can affect the investment level of the enterprise through rational channel and equity financing channels at the same time; and when the financing constraint is higher, the equity financing channel has greater attractive effect. Under the pressure of short selling, the margin trading companies, and state-owned enterprises do not have significant investment catering activities. Therefore, enterprises should focus on long-term development rather than short-term interests to avoid catering to investors’ irrational sentiments; enterprises should correctly guide the market to accurately value the company, promote the healthy development of the capital market, and improve the efficiency of resource allocation in the real economy.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 141-148 [Abstract] ( 862 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 979KB] ( 846 )

	149	Does the Local Government Debt Accelerator Exist? —An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel VAR Model
		GAO Ran, GONG Liu-tang
		This paper examines and confirms the existence of the local government debt accelerator, based on panel VAR model and a new database of municipal investment bonds issued by prefecture-level cities in China. Since local government uses land revenue as collateral to issue bonds,an increase of land revenue will lead to a debt expansion by relaxing local government’s credit constraint. Due to the fact that these bonds are issued to invest in infrastructure projects, the local government debt expansion can produce output fluctuation. Regional competition serves as a powerful incentive behind this process. The local government debt accelerator extends the financial accelerator theory by emphasizing the importance of local government’s behavior in China. Meanwhile, it reveals the nexus of local government debt and land finance, it also includes possible risk transmission channels.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 149-156 [Abstract] ( 984 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1286KB] ( 769 )

	157	The Internal linkage Mechanism of Credit Scale Change Among Departments ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Cases in the United States
		YANG Feng-juan, WANG Meng-ke
		Based on the credit scale data of the U.S. government, residents, finance and enterprises from 1952 to 2016, this paper empirically studies the inter sector linkage mechanism of credit scale change from multiple perspectives. The empirical results show that: the change of credit scale not only exists between single sectors, but also has a strong transmission effect in the joint change of two or three sectors. In the linkage mechanism of the change of credit scale of four sectors, the financial sector is in the core position in risk contagion, with the strongest transmission, and is not easily affected by other sectors; the residents’ risk transmission is the weakest; the government sector is most vulnerable to other sectors. In the three levels of credit risk transmission process, the first, second and third levels of the linkage of credit scale increases successively. This study is of great significance to China’s credit governance, especially for the prevention of systematic risks caused by disordered changes in credit scale.
		2019 Vol. 36 (6): 157-164 [Abstract] ( 1201 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 851KB] ( 801 )

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