Trade Promotion Effect of Trade Agreements between the Countries along “The Belt and Road” ——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Propensity Score Matching Model
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Trade Promotion Effect of Trade Agreements between the Countries along “The Belt and Road” ——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Propensity Score Matching Model
ZHENG Jian, ZHOU Shu-dong
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agriculture University, Nanjing 210095, China
Abstract Nowadays China is actively promoting the Free Trade Area Strategy and working out the Belt and Road Initiative. Based on the propensity score matching model and bilateral trade data of countries along the Belt and Road, this paper analyzes the effect of trade agreements on trade flow between countries along the Belt and Road, and estimates trade effects of trade agreements with different degrees of economic integration. The results show that the classical gravity model underestimates the effects of trade agreements. Trade Agreements not only increase trade between member countries, also can better intrigue the potentials of country pairs without agreements. The deeper degree of integration, the greater effects of trade agreements on trade. Robust tests based on different model specifications support the above conclusions.
ZHENG Jian,ZHOU Shu-dong. Trade Promotion Effect of Trade Agreements between the Countries along “The Belt and Road” ——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Propensity Score Matching Model. Economic Survey, 2019, 36(6): 062.
2019, Vol. 36 
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