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Economic Survey
2015 Vol.32 Issue.5
Published 2015-09-17
Original articles
1
An Analysis of Path-Dependent Characteristics and Weakening Lock-in Effects of Regional Wage Differentials in China
WANG Kai-yong, WANG Kai-ke, FENG Li
To rationally reduce regional wage differentials and achieve common prosperity, it is needed to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. This paper attempts to analyze the macro-market potential, micro-labor productivity and external diseconomies’ impacts on the regional wage level decisions in China through path-dependent features, lock-in effect and its weakening effects. The paper builds the regional wage levels affect factor model through the Dixit and Stiglitz model firstly, and then verifies the main factors’ effect on the regional wage level through robust fitting of the model by using the system GMM method. In the path-dependence characteristic and lock-in effect test part, it is found that the path-dependence and the weakening lock-in effects existing in the factors of the market potential and the labor productivity can better explain the pattern of regional wage level and its evolution in our country. The discovery has important practical significance on better understanding of the regional wage level pattern in China. At last the article puts forward several policy recommendations from the perspective of reasonably narrowing the existing regional disparities in wage level and promoting regional coordinated development.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 1-7 [
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Coordination and Integration between Tourism Enterprise Network and City Tourism Network——A Case Study of Shandong Province
SHI Jian-zhong, DONG Jiang-chun
The comprehensive and resource heterogeneous characters of tourism decide that tourism enterprises and city tourism should depend on each other, and as a result that two kinds of networks should be formed under coordination and integration. Through the social network theory and coupling theory, this paper analyzes the coordination and integration situation between tourism enterprise network and city tourism network of Shandong province. The conclusion is that there exist some different conditions and a low coordination rate between the two kinds of networks. It is necessary to improve the coordination and integration situation to enhance tourism performance of Shandong province,for example: to strengthen overall planning; to optimize and improve the tourism network structure; to promote the network knowledge accumulation and spillover.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 8-13 [
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Wage Premium and Agglomeration Economies——Based on Empirical Analysis of Panel Data of Chinese Cities
XU Xiao-jing, TIAN Xiang-hui
Based on new economic geography model, this paper uses panel data of Chinese cities and also uses system Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) to deal with endogeneity in the process of identification and estimation of urban agglomeration economies to identify the internal relation between urban agglomeration economies and wage premium. The empirical results show that average wages and the market potentials are significantly positively related, and it appears significant at 1% significance level, which explains that labor is able to achieve higher ability in the cities with higher potential markets, or that the cities with higher potential markets are able to pay higher wages to labor. The results reveal the main reason of why labor flow into big cities and more advanced regions.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 14-18 [
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An Empirical Study of Regional Economic Development Differences and Industrial Structure Evolution in China
FU Tao,CHEN En
Abstract:Industry is the foundation of economic growth of a country or a region,the optimization of the industrial structure is the focus of economic development mode transformation,so the study of nonlinear relationship between the industrial structure and regional economic growth has important value.Based on the dual-system and multiple systematic PTR model,using the provincial panel data,the paper makes an empirical study of the relationship between industrial structure and regional economic growth.Results show that the industrial structure has nonlinear influence on regional economic development,and the differences of economic conditions make the industrial structure non-linear and asymmetrical.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 19-24 [
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The Consistency of Government’s Needs for Grain and Farmers’ Needs for Money ——Based on Social and Private Efficiency of Grain Production
JIN Hong-tao
The contradiction between government’s needs for grain and farmers’ needs for money comes down to the inconsistency between government’s social efficiency and farmer’s private efficiency of food production. This paper uses Henan rural fixed observation data of grain production to do econometric analysis and finds the contradiction between government’s pursuit of grain yield and farmers’ pursuits of income. Results show that small-scaled transfer of rural lands cannot realize the unity of pursuits of government and farmers. However, the decrease of the finely degree of farmers’ arable lands and the increase of the marketization degree of grain production helps realize the increase of farmers’ income and grain production simultaneously.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 25-30 [
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31
The Persuasive Effect of Brand Awareness and Perfection of Information about Green Farm: from the Perspective of Two-Sided Messages
LIU Zhong-gang
To explore the effect of two-sided messages on unknown green farm produce brand, based on factor experiment 2 (unknown brand and famous brand) x 3 (one-sided messages in perfect green, two-sided messages in process, two-sided messages in raw material), the study analyzes the persuasive effects of brand awareness, negative features controllability and discount information on two-sided messages. The results show that two-sided messages are beneficial to unknown brand; Negative information about raw material is weaker than that of the processed; adding price discount information into two-sided messages can improve purchase intention of famous green brand while reduce purchase intention of the unknown brand. The inspiration for green farm produce marketing is drawn at last.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 31-36 [
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37
Organizational Forms, Information Asymmetry and “One Family, Two Systems”——Based on Sample Investigation of Farmers’ Behavior of Picking
XUE Yan-long, ZHENG feng-tian, LIU ning-ning, YANG hao
Farmers use fewer amount of pesticide when they produce agricultural products for themselves, but use more when agricultural products are to be sold to the market. This paper refers to this phenomenon as“one family, two systems”. A multi-task principal-agent model is built to analyze the cause of “one family, two systems” under thousands of households with non- organized small scale farmers. Then through the analysis of a sample of 616 farmers from several provinces, it proves that Cooperatives?are effective?in improving this situation. The results show that the different uses of agricultural products, farmers’ educational level, whether there is a teacher or a doctor in the family, the awareness of pesticide hazards cannot eliminate the phenomenon of “one family, two systems”. The suggestions of this paper are to cultivate the new agricultural management subject and to develop the agricultural cooperative organization.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 37-42 [
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43
Macroeconomic Environment, Exchange Rate Policy Objective and the Asymmetry of East Asia Currencies’ Relationship with RMB——A Comparative Analysis Before and After the “Financial Crisis”
XU Xiang-yun, LIAO Jia
By applying Quantile Regression model to analyze the asymmetry of six East Asia currencies’ relationship with RMB, it is revealed that the East Asian currencies behaved differently before the Crisis while there’s no asymmetry phenomenon. But some similarities are found after the Crisis, and Asian countries prefer to “follow” when RMB depreciates and are reluctant to follow when RMB appreciates at a comparatively large degree, which reflect the existence of asymmetry. This paper argues that the differences may be related to the different macroeconomic environment faced by East Asia region and the change of exchange rate policy objectives before and after the Crisis.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 43-48 [
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49
Financial Growth, Foreign Investment and Export Structure Optimization——An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data
WU Fei-fei, QIU Bin
Based on China’s 29 provinces panel data from 1998 to 2012, this paper uses the regression methods of 2SLS and GMM to study the effects of financial growth and foreign investment on the export structure optimization by measuring export structure with the export proportion of high-tech industry. The results show that financial growth helps alleviate the financial constraints of high-tech industries and then promote the progress of regional export structure optimization; and foreign investment not only directly affects the spatial distribution of high-tech industries, but also eases the financing constraints of high-tech industries facing; and FDI and financial growth have a alternative relations on promoting the process of regional export structure optimization. Further researches also show the influence of foreign investment and the relations of financial growth and foreign investment exist significant regional differences in the role of optimizing the export structure, which help provide some reference for different regional governments to develop differentiate policies.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 49-54 [
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55
A Research on the Home Market Effect of China’s Bilateral Service Trade
MA Ling-yuan
Following Schumacher (2003) gravity model, this paper tests the effects of China’s bilateral service trade on home market, it is found that the Home Market Effect exists in China’s overall services trade, and labor endowment promotes China’s service trade. In the department research, the Home Market Effect exists in six departments of eleven departments, there is no Home Market Effect exists in four departments, Home Market Effect in one department is not significant. This shows that Home Market Effect has become the most important source of comparative advantage of China’s service trade. The policy implications are that China’s service trade policies should tilt to domestic market, regulate market behavior, cultivate the economic scale of service enterprises, and create the conditions favorable to the Home market effect.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 55-60 [
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61
An Empirical Study of the Competitiveness of Chinese Creative Industry Trade
TANG Li-pin
This paper firstly reviews the relevant literature,then uses the classification method of UNCTAD to analyze the Development of China’s creative industries,and uses RCA index,TC index to make an empirical analysis about the international trade competitiveness of China’s creative industries from 2006 to 2012.Results show that international trade competitiveness of the whole of China’s creative industries and of the labor-intensive sectors is strong,but the trade competitiveness of the knowledge-intensive sectors is weak.To improve the level of China’s international trade competitiveness of creative industries,the government should make a unified planning of creative industry development strategy,and fully develop and utilize the resources of traditional culture heritage,perfect the intellectual property protection system of creative industry,and increase the intensity of training and the introduction of creative talents.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 61-66 [
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67
An Analysis of the Relationship between Cultural Trade and Economic Growth——Based on Time Series Model
HU Yan-yan
Cultural trade is an important part of international trade and has a significant effect on a country’s economic growth.This paper illustrates the influential mechanism between cultural trade and economic growth,then using the data from 2000 to 2013 to construct a vector autoregression model to demonstrate long-run dynamic relationship between cultural trade and economic growth.The results show that cultural import and cultural export can affect economic growth,and cultural trade has a lagging effect on economic growth.However,economic growth has no significant effect on cultural trade.According,the paper suggests that it is needed,to promoting the development of cultural innovation industry including cultural creation and designing;to facilitate the integration with related industry;to encourage small corporations’ entry into cultural industry;to accelerate “going out” of cultural goods and to improve cultural goods’ international competitiveness by developing featured products.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 67-72 [
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73
An Empirical Study on the Impacts of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on China’s Trade Structure
LI Xiao,HOU Jia-bei
The international oil price is a main factor of China’s trade,because of China’s huge oil consumption.This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of international oil price on China’s trade.Based on the panel data model,we also analyze the impacts of international oil price on China’s trade structure with the SITC classification.The results show that rising oil price can increase export proportion of non-energy intensive products and optimize the structure of exports.In addition to that,rising oil price has a positive impact on the import of oil-related products,which has an adverse effect on the structure of China’s import.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 73-78 [
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79
Research on the Decomposition and Influencing Factors of China’s Industry Technology Progress——Based on the Malmquist Index Method of DEA
GUO Jie-xiu
The paper firstly reviews studies on the accounting of Chinese technology progress in industry,and then it will make use of the Malmquist Index Method of DEA to decompose the industry technology progress in China.The paper will also conduct an empirical test of factors according to the panel data.We find that the TFP of Chinese industry keeps rapid growth in the promotion of technical efficiency improvement and technical progress.The empirical results also show that R&D investment,enterprise average scale,capital strength and imports all have positive effect in promoting the industrial technical progress,but export and FDI all exhibit negative effect.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 79-84 [
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85
Specialized,Diversified Industrial Agglomeration and Energy Efficiency——An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Provincial Manufacturing Panel Data
QIAO Hai-shu, HU Wen-yan, ZHONG Wei-ya
The paper embarks from the sources of industrial agglomeration to analyze the mechanism between industrial agglomeration and energy efficiency,and establishes a theoretical model between industrial agglomeration and energy efficiency through the analysis of the intervening variable-industry competitiveness.The paper uses 20 provincial manufacturing industries in China from 2000-2010 as research objects to differentiate professional and diversified industrial concentration,and it also uses GMM method to explore the mechanism of energy efficiency.Results indicate that the specialized manufacturing industry agglomeration is more advantageous to promote energy efficiency than diversified industrial agglomeration,and specialized industrial agglomeration is unfavorable to improve energy efficiency.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 85-90 [
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A Study of Relationship between Import Competition and Product Innovation of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises
YAN Bing, ZHANG Xiang-wen
Based on the micro-level panel-data from 2005-2007 and Schumpeter’s innovation theories, this paper investigates the relationship between import competition and product innovation of Chinese manufacturing enterprises. This paper finds that: (1) there is an inverted “U”-shaped relationship between import competition and product innovation in Chinese manufacturing enterprises; (2) by using different substitution variables and instrumental variables, it is found that the statistical results are robust; (3) Chinese manufacturing enterprises with different international strategies and regional factors display different relationships with import competition, and the paper gives reasonable explanations correspondingly.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 91-95 [
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Models of Premium and Penalty Mechanism of Closed-Loop Supply Chain under the Responsibility-Sharing Collection
WANG Wen-bin, ZHANG Kai, ZHANG Xiao-qiang
In this paper,the centralized decision-making model,and the closed-loop supply chain models of premium and penalty mechanisms for manufacturers only,for responsibility-sharing collection by manufacturers and retailers,for responsibility-sharing collection by manufacturers and collectors have been established.By solving and comparing the results of these models respectively,the buy-back price,wholesale price,retail price and collection rate decision of closed-loop supply chain have been obtained under the four cases.This study shows that: the wholesale price,the retail price of new products and the collection rate are the same under the two cases of premium and penalty only for manufacturers and for responsibility-sharing collection by manufacturers and collectors,and compared to the case of the responsibility-sharing collection by manufacturers and retailers,the wholesale price of new products are decreased while the collection rate is increased;In terms of the buy-back price of the waste products,it is the lowest buy-back price when the manufacturer and the collector share the responsibility of the collection,which is of great benefit to the manufacturer who acts as the Stackelberg leader,it can mobilize its enthusiasm.Therefore,the case that the manufacturer and the collector share the responsibility of the collection is better because it is more effective than the other two cases because it plays a role in coordinating the operation of the closed-loop supply chain.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 96-101 [
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102
Corporate Liabilities,Executive Incentives and Agency Costs──Based on Empirical Study of Chinese Listed Companies
SUN Yan-nan,SHEN Yi
Based on data of A-share listed companies,this paper analyzes the relevance of executive incentive,corporate debt and agency costs.The results show that in our country,salary incentives can effectively reduce agency costs,while share right incentives aren’t so effective.And debt can also reduce the agency costs which play a complementary role to the incentives.Meanwhile,further studies show that,under different ownership properties and debt maturities,the effects of executive incentives and corporate debt to agency costs are different: debt can reduce agency costs of company-paid consumption in non-state-owned enterprises and agency costs of inefficient operation in state-owned enterprises.Compared with long-term debt,short-term liabilities can improve agency efficiency.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 102-107 [
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108
Quantile Regression of Gender Discrimination in China’s Urban Labor Market
ZHAO Xian-zhou
Based on the data from the CGSS2010, we explored the magnitude, direction and the sources of the gender discrimination in China’s urban labor market by quantile regression and MM decomposition. Findings were that gender wage gap fluctuates irregularly from the lower end to the higher end of the wage distribution; female workers’ endowment does not distinctly prevail over the male workers’; the contribution of the discrimination to the wage gap exceeds that of the endowment in most of the quantiles and counts for the main part of the gap. Discrimination against women are mainly coming from four human capital variables, education, experience, health and mother’s education with counter-discrimination coming from the two structural variables, ownership and scale, which are becoming more significantly in the higher end of the quatile.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 108-113 [
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An Analysis of the Dynamics Adjust Determinants of Ownership Structure of Ultimate Shareholders of Chinese Listed Companies
WAN Li-quan
This paper analyzes determinants of dynamically adjustment of ownership structure from the perspective of ultimate shareholders. The results show that the separation of control and ownership right of ultimate shareholders is negatively associated with ownership dilution, and pyramid ownership structure limits ownership dilution. Control right is positively correlated with ownership dilution. There are no significant correlation between stock returns and ownership dilution which shows ultimate shareholders do not obviously choose market timing to adjust ownership structure. Stock volatility is positively correlated with ownership dilution.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 114-119 [
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120
The Influence of Reward Size, Reward Schemes and Tie Strength on Online Referral Likelihood
ZHU Yi-min, YU Hong-yan
This paper discusses the influence of reward size, reward schemes and tie strength on online referral likelihood in referral reward program. The results show that reward size, reward schemes and tie strength have significant effects on consumer online referral likelihood. Moreover, there are significant interactions between reward size and tie strength, reward scheme and tie strength. In the condition of weak ties, when the program provides reward, consumer referral likelihood will be higher; consumer referral likelihood will be even higher with “Reward Me” Scheme. In the condition of strong ties, there is no significant difference of online referral likelihood with and without reward; however, consumer referral likelihood will be higher with "Reward Both" Scheme.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 120-125 [
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126
Nonlinear Influential Effects of Economic Growth, Urbanization and Technical Progress on Energy Consumption
XIAO De, WEI Wen-wan
Based on economic data and STR model, the paper studies the nonlinear influential effects of GDP per capital growth rate, urbanization rate and technical progress rate on energy consumption intensity. The inspection result shows that, when using the time-delay GDP per capital growth rate and urbanization rate as smooth transition variable to build ESTR model, and technical progress rate to build LSTR model, the modeling would be the most appropriate. The research finds that steady and relatively fast growth of China’s economy can reduce the energy consumption intensity continuously, and the steady progress of urbanization can facilitate the reduce of energy consumption intensity, while technical progress can pull up energy consumption prominently.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 126-131 [
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132
A Research on the Impact of Urbanization on Relationship betweenDemographic Dividend and Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Threshold Regression Model
ZHANG Lin, SHENG Xiu-ting
Based on the theoretical analysis, taking the panel data of 30 provinces during the period between 2000 and 2012, and using the panel threshold regression techniques, this paper tests the threshold effect between the demographic dividend and economic growth with the urbanization as the threshold variables. Results show that there is a significant three threshold effect between the demographic dividend and economic growth. In any threshold interval, the demographic dividend always can promote the economic growth evidently. With the improvement of urbanization, the promoting effect of the demographic dividend on the economic growth will be enhanced. Finally, this paper puts forward advices on how to make full use of demographic dividend in economic growth from the perspective of urbanization.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 132-137 [
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138
The Influence of Corporate Governance on Information Asymmetry and Liquidity of Stock Market
JIANG Xiang-lin
The aim of the paper is to investigate the influence of corporate governance on the information asymmetry and liquidity of stock market. The index from the executive incentives, efficiency of board directors, ownership structure, and efficiency board supervisors are selected as the proxies of corporate governance, and information asymmetry and liquidity of the stock market are measured by some index. The empirical results indicate that some variables of corporate governance indeed influence information asymmetric and liquidity of the stock market.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 138-143 [
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The Influence of Government Expenditure and Financing on Private Investment
WEI Xiang-jie
The paper builds a model to analyze relations between the type of government expenditure, financing and private investment, and uses data from 1995-2011 to test theoretical analysis. The results show that government public investment makes crowding-into effect on private investment; Among government current expenditure, social, cultural and educational expenditure crowd into private investment, while economic development expenditure show crowding-out effect, it is unclear that other expenditures are related to private investment; different conditions of debt financing for private investment have different effects; non-tax financing of government crowds out private investment. Therefore, government spending must be treated differently, the use of debt financing to invest should choose the right time.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 144-149 [
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Regulator and Village Bank: Principal-Agent Relationship and Governance Mechanism
LU Zhiqiang
Based on the principal-agent model and the regulators and the principal-agent relationship of village banks, the paper investigates how should the regulators optimize designs of incentive mechanism of village banks. The results show that to depend on a strict system of examination and approval in advance, not only cannot solve the goal conflict between regulators and village Banks, but also can restrain the development of village banks, and regulators should let go of barriers to entry, and focus on how to set up a reasonable incentive mechanism to guide the village banks to serve the agriculture development.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 150-155 [
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Perverse Incentives, Insurance Misleading Sales and Governance
YANG Fu, PANG Kai
This paper analyzes the influence of perverse incentives on insurance sales. The optimal choices of insurance agents, insurance consumers’ and the insurers’ are discussed based on dual-agent theory. And the efficient governance of insurance misleading sales is studied. It is concluded that high percentage of commissions and improper payment structure leads to perverse incentives, whose negative effects are amplified by limited cognitive level of insurance of consumers. Insurers are less motivated to optimize incentive contracts with agents. So governance should be strengthened by supervisors.
2015 Vol. 32 (5): 156-160 [
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