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Economic Survey

	2015 Vol.32 Issue.2 Published 2015-03-04

Original article

	1	The Influence of China’s Rural Labor Mobility on the Development of Regional Service Industry——The Empirical Research Based on 2002~2010 Provincial Panel Data
		LI Jing,ZHOU Ying-ling,NIE Hong-zhi
		Rural labor flow can lead to changes of labor resource allocation in regional economic development,meanwhile,it’s also a critical factor of economic structural transformation.By research on the data during 2002~2010 of eastern,the middle and western districts of China,the research results show that rural labor migration has a promoting effect on growth of service industry in eastern district and has a negative effect on growth of service industry in middle.However,rural labor mobility has no effect on the growth of service industry in western district.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 1-6 [Abstract] ( 3012 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 629KB] ( 6096 )

	7	Institutional Innovation and Guarantee Mechanism of Human-land Linking under Urbanization
		YANG Yu-zhen
		The paper adopted methods of new institutional economics,and systematic studied variety factors,multiple subjects,operational modes,profit and loss,conflicts,process design and guarantee mechanism of human-land linking institutional innovation.The research results show that Human-land linking institution innovation is mainly due to 3 main reasons:(1)Uncoupling of land urbanization and population urbanization;(2)Deviation during land extensive use,economic output and population carrying capacity;(3)Unlinking of land’s space fusion and population’s identity isolation.This innovation is inevitable of institution supply and demand system.Human-land linking institution has functions as collaborative management,the elements flow,right protection and macro and micro positioning.Its operation modes conclude matching urbanization rate growth,people moving with land and operation mode directed by effective employment.Human-land linking institutional innovation has positive or zero benefits to multiple participators such as city’s new citizens,former citizens,and enterprises in targeted region,local governments and the central government.However,benefits of participators,processing and regional differences in institution pushing will cause challenges and potential conflicts in institutional innovation.In practice,human-land linking includes 8 linkages of operation process and 4 aspects of supporting systems.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 7-12 [Abstract] ( 2777 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1199KB] ( 1801 )

	13	The Evaluation of Coordinated Development between Urban and Rural Areas in Central Plains Economic Zone
		HAN Feng,LI Er-ling
		Overall coordinated development between urban and rural areas is the inherent requirement for the Central Plains Economic Zone’s development strategy.Based on the analysis of connotation and influence factors of the coordinated development in urban and rural areas,this paper establishes evaluation index system of the coordinated development between urban and rural areas,and evaluates the coordinated development degree between urban and rural areas in the Central Plains Economic Zone by using data in Statistical Yearbook 2012 of related provinces.This paper presents that:(1) The coordinated development level between urban and rural areas in Central Plains Economic Zone presents significant “massive distribution” spatially,and as a whole,the coordinated development degree in north is better than that in south;(2)There is no coherence between the influence of different factors on the coordinated development degree between urban and rural areas in prefecture level and the differences based on the main factors among prefecture-level cities;(3)Rapid growth of county economy is an important power to promote the urban and rural system to a more harmonious and advanced system.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 13-18 [Abstract] ( 2759 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 975KB] ( 2033 )

	19	Temperature-driven,Economy Growth and Residential Energy Consumption
		LI Shu-sheng,ZHANG Qiang
		This paper adopts improved 1-step Becker-Grossman model,introduced rain,per GDP and region dummy variable to study their impacts on the residential energy consumption.Using the data of province from 2004 to 2011,We find that:①There is significant individual differences of basic energy consumption in each province,less developed areas and high altitudes areas with higher energy consumption base;②Energy consumption patterns of residents is different from the 1990s,and it reached temperature-driven times instead of disaster-driven,similar with developed countries.Energy consumption and temperature exists U-shaped curve,and difference temperature adjustment cost leads to asymmetry;③Economic growth effect is greater than the temperature effect in recent years,and is the main factor that drove China’s residents energy increasing.The income elasticity of energy consumption is only 0.39,energy consumption will further increase in the future.At the end of this paper,we make six kinds of extension,and find that the model has good robustness.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 19-24 [Abstract] ( 2895 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 768KB] ( 1896 )

	25	The Impact of Human Capital,Social Capital on Migrant Workers’ Employment Quality——An Analysis of Gender Perspective
		REN Yi-ke,WANG Lin,DU Hai-feng
		Using the data of 370 migrant workers’ employment in L city,Shanxi province,this paper analyzes gender difference of effects of human capital,social capital on employment quality based on OLS and Ordinal models.The results show that,compared with female migrant workers,male workers own higher wages,longer working hours and worse work stability.Human capital can’t improve male migrant workers’ hourly wages,but can delay their work time,and is helpful to change job.However,human capital can improve female migrant workers’ hourly wages.Social capital can’t improve male migrant workers’ hourly wages,but can delay female migrant workers’ work time.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 25-30 [Abstract] ( 3002 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 771KB] ( 2223 )

	31	Research on Consumers’ Multiple Levels Cognitive Behavior to Eco-labeling Food Using MVP Model
		CHEN Mo,YIN Shi-jiu,XU Ying-jun
		Using 693 consumers sampling data from Shandong province,taking green food as example,the paper divides consumer cognitive behavior into three levels:knowing level,identifying level and using level,then builds multivariate Probit model to analyze the factors influencing consumers’ multilevel cognitive behavior.The results show that male or young consumers’ cognitive rate at knowing level is higher,while female and older consumers’ cognitive rate at identifying level and using level is higher.Degree of consumer involvement and income at knowledge level are not significant,but are significant at other levels.Education,the condition of children and the consciousness of environmental protection at all levels are significant.Food safety consciousness and information channel are significant at the lower level,but are not significant at higher levels.Consumers’ heterogeneity in cognitive behavior provides opportunity for market segmentation and development.Supplier should take different marketing strategies according to different groups,in order to guide consumers’ cognitive behavior,and then promote the transformation from potential demand to real demand.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 31-36 [Abstract] ( 2853 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1013KB] ( 2244 )

	37	Analysis of Chinese Rural Farming Households’ Accessibility to Credit——A Study Based on Double-hurdle Model
		LIU Hui-huang,WU Wei
		This paper uses double-hurdle model and bootstrap method analyses the questionnaire data from China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),and tests how the individual characters and household characters influence their accessibility to credit.The results indicate that:(1)The party membership,risk appetite have significant influence on credit accessibility.(2)The level of family income,asset size have significant influence on loan amount,and these characters have different influence on credit accessibility and loan amount.The policy implications include setting up policy-oriented financial support system,improving credit guarantee system,and launching an innovation of financial products.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 37-42 [Abstract] ( 3106 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 782KB] ( 1859 )

	43	A Study on the Determinants of China’s Twin Surplus
		ZHANG Yun-ting, ZHANG Cai-yun
		Based on the empirical model test,we come that internal economic imbalances are the roots of external imbalances.(1) The high proportion of secondary industry which is represented by trade department resulted in increasing trade surplus.(2) The income distribution imbalance lead to the decrease of the residents' income share and further insufficient domestic consumption demand and investment demand, which stimulate the formation of twin surplus.(3)The financial structure imbalance lead to high savings rate of enterprise, which prompted the twin surplus.Therefore,in order to adjust the external imbalances, industrial structure should be optimized and the residents’ income share be increased to expand domestic demand.Furthermore,financial market should be improved to realize the effective flow of domestic savings to investment.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 43-49 [Abstract] ( 2779 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 965KB] ( 2134 )

	50	The Effect of TPP on Foreign Trade, Investment and China’s Corresponding Strategy——A Heterogeneous Firms Theory Perspective
		SUN Xiao-ni, LIU Qing
		TPP(Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement) is one of the most important FTA(Free Trade Area).Combining related FTA theory,the paper extends the existing heterogeneous firms trade model and analyzes the effect of TPP on the China’s foreign trade and investment and the corresponding measures which China should take.The paper finds that TPP will exert very different effects on China and America.The trade liberalization which TPP want to promote will restrain China’s trade and FDI,but promote America’s export and inward FDI.At present stage,China is less likely to join in the TPP.Promoting the domestic demand and establishing the China/Japan/Korea FTA can alleviate the negative effect that TPP may exert on China.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 50-55 [Abstract] ( 2853 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 768KB] ( 2022 )

	56	Export Intensity,Absorptive Capacity and Chinese Export Enterprise Productivity
		YANG Ya-ping, LI Jing
		Based on a micro-level panel data from 2001 to 2007,this paper analyzes the relationship between export intensity,absorptive capacity and productivity of Chinese exporters on firm-level heterogeneity.Our empirical study shows that Chinese exporters are more productive than non-exporters.More interestingly, exporters’ total factor productivity presents an inverted U-shape with the export intensity.Furthermore,we find exporters’ absorptive capacity will enhance their productivity and has a positive moderate effect on the relationship of export intensity and productivity.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 56-61 [Abstract] ( 2855 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 758KB] ( 2392 )

	62	Firm Heterogeneity and the Determination of Service Trade Protection Level——Based on Empirical Test in China
		BAI Jie
		From political economics, using game theory,this paper analyses the relationship between firm heterogeneity and protection level of service trade and makes empirical test in China’s service industry.The results indicate that for a given service industry, the higher industrial concentration is,the higher trade protection level is. The lower labor productivity is,the higher trade protection level is. The lower capital intensity is,the higher trade protection level is. Besides,China’s special pattern of ownership broadens the meaning of firm heterogeneity.For a given service industry,the bigger the weight of state-owned enterprises is,the higher trade protection level is.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 62-67 [Abstract] ( 2653 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 846KB] ( 1947 )

	68	The Analysis of Main Factors Affecting Service Recovery Efficiency and Path of China’s Flight Delay
		YANG Xiu-yun, ZHAO Ke-xiang, HUA Wen-jun
		Based on SERVQUAL model,the paper design the main indicators influencing the service recovery efficiency of flight delay in China,as well as questionnaire on the basis of different customer needs, and get the first-hand data by marketing research.The results show:(1) Using variance analysis, the paper proves that both passenger characteristics and delay characteristics have significant influence on the service recovery efficiency of flight delay;(2)Delay characteristics have greater influence on service recovery efficiency, simple service recovery strategies are difficult to meet the time-sensitive consumer’s demand.(3)When the flight delay happening,ignoring information communication with customer has become the key factor causing all kinds of conflicts.Therefore,providing customized service recovery strategies is an efficient way improving customer satisfaction and resolving possible conflict.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 68-74 [Abstract] ( 2902 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 965KB] ( 2226 )

	75	Monopoly Power, Strategic Change and Corporation Performance——Empirical Study Based on Enterprise Life-cycle
		ZHAO Li-xiang, ZHANG Wen-yuan
		Using Balanced Panel Data of 465 China’s manufacturing industry listed companies from 2008 to 2012, we find that the suitable level of strategic change is different between the growth stage, the mature stage and the decline stage. The results show that strategic change has a significant positive impact on corporation performance at the growth stage, and it has an inverted U-shape relationship with corporation performance at the mature stage. However, we don’t find the strategic change has a significant impact on corporation performance at the decline stage. In contrast, we can see the required level of strategic change is higher at growth stage than mature stage. Furthermore, we also find that the industry monopoly power can weaken the relationship between strategic change and corporation performance.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 75-80 [Abstract] ( 2859 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 734KB] ( 2447 )

	81	Research on the Overall Measurement and Relationship of Performance under Different Innovation Mode in China
		YU Li-ping, FANG Jian-xin, SUN Jian-hong
		Based on the analysis of China's innovation patterns and innovation cycle, this paper collects panel data of high-tech industry, using the Grainger causality test, panel data, panel VAR model to study the performance and interactive relationship between self-dependent innovation and introduced technology. The results show that, the overall use and secondary innovation of technology introduction has good performance in China. Alternative and complementary effect coexists in self-dependent innovation and introduced technology, and it shows a good momentum because complementary effect is greater than substitution effect. Empirical study deduces China doesn’t have the phenomenon of “low efficiency trap in technology introduction”, but the primary innovation in China still has a large gap compared to developed country.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 81-86 [Abstract] ( 2621 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 816KB] ( 2091 )

	87	Institutional Investors,the Separation of Control Right & Cash Flow Right and the Premium of Related Party Assets Reorganization
		HOU Jian-ping, LI Yuan-yuan, NI Meng
		The paper empirically studies the influence of controlling shareholder’s separation rate and institutional shareholders’ holding behavior on related party assets reorganization premium in Chinese listed companies. Our study shows that the rights separation of controlling shareholder is the main cause leading to the imperfection of corporation governance in listed companies. Controlling shareholders grab private benefits through asset reorganization, and the separation rate and institutional shareholders can both effectively affect the premium of the related party asset reorganization by the controlling shareholders.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 87-92 [Abstract] ( 2751 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 950KB] ( 1964 )

	93	Research on Willingness of Online Consumer to Accept Initiative Recommendation Group-buying
		WAN Jun, WU Di, ZHAO Hong-xia
		Based on the psychology reactance theory, this paper constructed the theoretical model about elements which would affect consumers’ acceptance intention to initiative recommendation group-buying. 458 valid responses were collected based on context experiment,and the research model was empirically tested by using structural equation modeling.The results reveal that consumers’ acceptance intention to initiative recommendation group-buying has positive relationship with their psychology reactance emotion,and the psychology reactance emotion is influenced by the buying environment,product and the consumers’ personal characteristics. Research results can help online businesses to reduce consumers produce psychological resistance to its active recommend buying mood factor,can optimize active recommend buying for online merchants to offer reference to the marketing effect.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 93-98 [Abstract] ( 2518 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 972KB] ( 1698 )

	99	Executive Compensation,Corporate Governance and Cost Stickiness in State-owned Enterprise
		LUO Hong,ZENG Yong-liang,LIU Bao-hua
		Agency problem is the main cause of cost stickiness in state-owned enterprise (SOE).Executive compensation incentives are expected to be an important mechanism to alleviate the agency problem.In view of this,we investigate the effect of executive compensation on cost stickiness.We find that,cost stickiness exists in Chinese SOE,and this phenomenon is mainly derived from managers’ opportunistic behavior.Executive compensation incentives can mitigate cost stickiness caused by agency problem,and good corporate governance environment can enhance the effect of executive compensation on reducing cost stickiness.Further study finds that the effect of executive compensation incentive varies by the different level of government control over SOE.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 99-104 [Abstract] ( 3153 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 794KB] ( 2299 )

	105	Financial Development, Ownership Restriction and Enterprise Capital Structure——Based on Empirical Study about Provincial Panel Data of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size
		MA Da-lai, CHEN Zhong-chang, WANG Ling
		Utilizing our country’s panel data from 2001 to 2011, the paper makes an empirical study of the relationship between the financial development,ownership restriction and the capital structure of enterprises.The results show that financial development can promote the debt increase.Ownership restriction on enterprise’s capital structure mainly in comparing to the non state owned enterprises, and state owned enterprises have a comparative advantage in obtaining credit support of financial institutions. The degree of nationalization enterprise is higher, the asset liability ratio is higher too.There is no interaction effect consistent with the effects of financial development and the enterprise ownership structure on corporate capital structure.The state-owned enterprises in gaining relative advantages of credit financing will gradually lose effectiveness and the achievement of financial institutions shareholding reform began to appear.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 105-110 [Abstract] ( 2891 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 776KB] ( 1882 )

	111	Executives’ Feature,Strategic Behavior and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Information Disclosure Quality
		ZHENG Guan-qun,SONG Lin,HAO Yuan-xiao
		CSR may be motivated by executives’ strategies,thus executives’ structural features are important factors affecting the disclosure quality.Under the SCP paradigm,based on H-M framework,employing CSR report rating scores of Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2011,we find that executives’ position and tenure and compensation features have significant impacts on CSR disclosure quality.Specifically,demission of CEO will deteriorate the quality of CSR disclosure,and remaining tenure of CEO has positive effects.Shareholding ratio and salary of executives also have positive impacts.All these imply that CSR could be motivated by executives’ strategic purposes.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 111-116 [Abstract] ( 2866 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1011KB] ( 1989 )

	117	Marxian Theory of Distribution and Contemporary Chinese Reform of Income Distribution Mechanisms
		CUI Chao-dong, CUI Chong
		The “decision” issued by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on the reform of the income distribution united labor income in the public-owned economy and the non-public economy through some concept like “labor remuneration”,“labor income” and “salary”. This not only does favor to connect with international practice, to measure the relationship between labor compensation and labor productivity and the proportion in the initial distribution of national income through the international comparison, but makes a breakthrough in the current political economics theory which keeps a strict distinction between labor income in public-owned economy and the non-public economy, in this way, the reality can’t be explained and it’s unbeneficial to deepen the reform, besides, it will eventually lead to the theoretical defect about the negation of Marx's theory of distribution according to work.So,it’s the innovation and development of Marx's theory of distribution.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 117-121 [Abstract] ( 2499 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 603KB] ( 1665 )

	122	The Effect of Local Institution Change on Multinational Corporation’s Social Responsibility
		LI Qian
		This paper presents a co-competition game model about the effect of local institution change on multinational corporation’s social responsibility.Business and This paper provides the best choice for the local government on the multinational corporation’s social responsibility requests under easy,reasonable and tough policies,and this choice is determined by local government’s negotiation and reputation cost,as well as the cost of corporate social responsibility.It also analyzes the influential factors of multinational corporations’ social responsibility under these three policies.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 122-126 [Abstract] ( 2537 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 728KB] ( 1949 )

	127	A Research on House Pricing Model under the Influence of Social Structure
		LV Zheng-ying,GU Feng
		In this paper,we use the housing price of Boston as the sample and select 13 factors which may affect it to construct the measurable model about the housing price and the hedonic factors,and try to find the key factor affecting the housing price based on hedonic price by using the statistical tools such as regression analysis,cluster analysis,artificial neural networks model and regression trees model.Then,we compare the models according to the predictive effect and further discuss the key factor.This study finds that the number of rooms and LSAT (logarithm of the ratio of the lower class) are the two most important variables,which provides the message to policymakers that the state should greatly increase the transparency of real estate information,and pay attention to the impacts of different classes may have on the adjustment of real estate policy.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 127-132 [Abstract] ( 2734 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1499KB] ( 1761 )

	133	Robustness Measurement of Volatility Risk of Chinese Real Estate Price
		NIE Ying,DONG Na
		The rapid rise of China real estate prices in recent years has exceeded the resident unbearable degree.Real estate prices once become the bubble,will cause serious negative impact on economy.This paper firstly analyzes the mechanism,cause,harm of real estate bubble.Then it uses Housing Price-income Ratio,Multiple Regression and Partial Equilibrium Analysis to measure the Real Estate Bubble of China.The research show the prices of China real estate show a rising trend from 2004 to 2013,it has cluster autocorrelation effect in areas.The extent of price bubble in the eastern coastal areas is more serious than Midwest areas.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 133-137 [Abstract] ( 2705 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 819KB] ( 1987 )

	138	An Empirical Test on Government Subsidy,Property Characteristic and the Effect of Debt Financing
		SHEN Xiang-hua
		This paper discusses the effect of debt financing of government subsidy based on the listed companies of 2008-2011.The results show:(1)Government subsidy as a kind of positive signal can significantly increase the size of bank loan,and this effect even more strong in private enterprise than in state-owned enterprise.(2)Government subsidy can significantly lower the cost of bank loan, and this effect can be strengthened by the characteristic of state-owned property right,which leads to a remarkable effect of reducing cost in state-owned enterprise.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 138-143 [Abstract] ( 2773 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 795KB] ( 1708 )

	144	An Empirical Study about the Effects of Fiscal Expenditure of Public Security on the Stability of Social Situation in China——A Proof from the Panel Data of Chinese Province
		HUANG Yan-min,ZHANG Yan-gui
		The paper focused on the impact of the national fiscal expenditures on the China’s public security to the degree of social stability affected.Through the Granger causality test,the financial expenditure of the public safety is a unidirectional Granger cause that affects the degree of the social stability.In view of these findings,the public safety fiscal expenditure should be dynamically adjusted,which refers to the social stability,in order to fit the social demand of governments’ security.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 144-148 [Abstract] ( 2692 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 758KB] ( 1588 )

	149	The Research on the Influencing Factors of Residents’ Total Financial Exclusion in Chinese Poverty Areas
		LEI Han-yun
		Based on the survey data of more than 1,600 households in poverty areas about the financial services,the paper analyzes the factors about total financial exclusion using Logistic Regression Model.The research results show that:(1) Residents’ occupation,income and educational attainment have significant impact on total financial exclusion,and other important factors include region,age,property rights and family size.(2) The influence of gender,marriage,health,ethnicity and social class have influence to total financial exclusion,but their influence aren’t significant.(3)In order to solve financial exclusion problem in our poverty areas,relevant authorities should take measures to improve residents’ income,financial services structure,the level of educational development in poor areas,and increase the accumulation of properties of household property.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 149-154 [Abstract] ( 2639 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 718KB] ( 2474 )

	155	Study on the Carbon Finance Operational Efficiency of Joint-stock Commercial Banks in China
		ZHANG Wen-yuan,XIAO Xiao-cheng,WANG Zhen-yi
		By using the data envelope analysis (DEA) model,combined with the BCC model and CCR model,this paper makes empirical research on China’s listed commercial banks from 2009 to 2011.The research results show that,according to the comprehensive technical efficiency,the average of the sample banks changes little ups and downs and at the relatively stable state during research period.But the technical efficiency is generally at low level,does not reach high level.
		2015 Vol. 32 (2): 155-160 [Abstract] ( 2260 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 827KB] ( 1646 )

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