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Economic Survey
2012 Vol.1 Issue.4
Published 2012-07-09
Original Articles
1
A Study on the Agglomeration Effects of Producer Services on Economic Growth——Based on Panel Data VAR Analysis of Prefecture level Cities in China
WANG Zhuo-zhuo, HAN-feng, ZHAO Yu-qi
From the comprehensive view of Marshall externalities, Jacobs externalities and new economic geography,a dynamic econometric analysis is made on the effect of the agglomeration of producer services on economic growth across 286 prefectural or higher level cities for the period of 2000-2009 in China based on panel data VAR model. The results show that there exist long-term equilibrium relationships between the scale of producer services, specialization agglomeration and variety agglomeration of producer services and the local economic growth. And there exists one-way causality relationship between the agglomeration of producer services and economic growth. The variety agglomeration other than specialization agglomeration promotes economic growth. Because the total size of producer services is small, the scale effects of producer services on economic growth are not significant. Encouraging diversification of producer services in cities and avoiding over-agglomeration in the same sector, enlarging the scale of some important service sectors may be the expected policies.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 1-5 [
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An Empirical Analysis on the Heterogeneity in Consumer Behavior of Urban Residents in China ——Based on Quantile Regression for Dynamic Panel Data
ZHAO Wei-ya, YUAN Jun-jiang, CHEN Xin-tao
This paper analyzes the heterogeneity of consumer behavior of urban residents in China by the method of dynamic quantile regression for panel data proposed by Antonio and Galvao (2011) together with the panel data identification method testing whether it has variable intercepts or variable coefficients by dividing the 31 provinces into five area. Results show that the panel data identification method has some advantages to divide regions and there has a demonstration effect in Chinese consumption behavior of regional heterogeneity between five regions currently.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 6-10 [
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4737
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11
Government Policy,Human Capital and Regional Economic Growth——Taking Shandong Province as an Example
YANG Jian
By using the theoretical model and practical data analysis, the relationship between Shandong province's human capital and economic growth is studied systematically. The results indicate that the current public education system has simulative effect on human capital accumulation and economic growth; material capital and opening up is helpful for the talent aggregation and flow, promoting human capital accumulation, which is conducive to economic growth; Fiscal decentralization is conducive to economic growth and human capital accumulation; excessive financial burden has the opposite effect. Proposal is made on accumulating of human capital and promoting economic growth.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 11-15 [
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16
China’s Industrial Agglomeration Characteristics and its Effect on Economic Growth Based on SGMM Estimator
DUAN Hui-juan
After provincial manufacturing distribution is characterized from agglomeration level and type, SGMM is conducted to examine the empirical effect of agglomeration variables on regional economic growth by using dynamic panel data. It is shown that : concentration level has a positive effect on economic growth, not diversification but specialization is more conducive to economic growth, fierce competition resulted from diseconomies of small scale has hindered economic further development. Furthermore, it is found that the agglomeration effects among sectors with different technology are different and especially high-tech industry cluster doesn't play its expected role in economic growth.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 16-21 [
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22
An Analysis of the Crowding-out (in) Effect of China′s Government Investment——Based on the Perspective of Regional Differences Panel Data
LIU Yi-ou, HUANG Jing
This paper analyzes the crowding-out(crowding-in) effect of the East, Central and West areas in China by using panel data. The eastern region government shows an obvious crowding in effect, western second, while the central region the lowest. In addition, besides the the crowding influence of the government investment, the private investment also affected by other factors, such as economic fluctuation, urbanization rate, the level of infrastructure, the degree of financial development, opening degree, commercialize degree, desirable folk investment level and so on.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 22-26 [
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27
Decoupling of China’s Agriculture Carbon Emissions and Economic Development Based on the Input Perspective
LI Bo, ZHANG Jun-biao
The thesis, based on six kinds of mainly carbon source from the agricultural inputs, calculates China’s agricultural carbon emission load from 1993 to 2008. It is found that the average annual growth rate of agriculture carbon emissions is 4.08%, while fertilizers, pesticides, diesel oil, irrigation, tillage as a result of carbon emissions an average annual increase rate was 3.45%, 4.65%, 7.20%, 4.77%, 1.22%, 0.38%, and significant regional differences in characteristics. Measurement analysis shows that from 1994 to 2008 China's carbon emissions and economic development of agriculture shows weak decoupling, decoupling the expansion of the negative connection and expansion, to expand connectivity and expansion of the main negative decoupling. Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan mainly show strong decoupling, weak decoupling, the expansion connection; Shandong, Guangxi mainly show strong decoupling, weak decoupling; Heilongjiang, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Guangdong, Sichuan mainly showed a variety of decoupling elasticity.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 27-31 [
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32
Study on the Economies Scale and Scope of Farmers’ Professional Cooperatives——Based on the Survey Data of Shanxi Province
LIU Jing, WANG Zheng-bing
The paper researches the economies of scale and scope of 44 fruit and vegetable cooperatives in Shanxi Province by using SUR method and the fixed period generalized translog cost model. It is found that the cooperatives have slight economies of scale and significant economies of scope as a whole; the outputs of main products, fertilizer and agricultural films have product-specific economies of scale which means by increasing these inputs would decrease the total cost in long run. The main products joints with chemical have product-specific economies of scope, which their joints would save more cost than other outputs joints. Therefore, the output of main production, fertilizer and agricultural films have larger advantage, which could make the the proportion of outputs cost less than the cost of inputs and therefore achieve the economies of scale and scope of the cooperatives.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 32-35 [
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3763
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36
A Research on Rural Social Security Expenditure to Farmers' Consumption Demand
TU Yu-hua
In the background of the international financial crisis ,It is important for our country's economic development to change model pattern of growth into domestic demand, but it requires a strong social security system as a support. This paper researches the rural social security spending to the rural residents’ consumption demand impact by the Consumption function of Ando and Modigliani as the basis of consumption and innovation together with China's rural areas of social security expenditures related data from 1985 to 2010. Proposal is made on policy to promote and improve our social security system healthy researches the rural social security spending to the rural residents' consumption demand impact
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 36-40 [
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41
Factor Intensity, Environment and China Industrial Exports Structure
MA Jian-ping, CAI Hong-po, WANG Xue-kun
The paper empirically analyzes the changing industrial exports structure in view of labor, capital, technique and environment. It is found that China’s export features labor intensive, low technology intensive and low pollution, and changes towards capital intensive, higher technology intensive and cleaner. Labor, capital, wage and free trade are the main causalities of the evolution, and technological and environmental factors affect weakly. At the same time classical theoretical conclusions are only applicable to average industry as a whole, but not entirely suitable to separate regressions.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 41-45 [
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46
An Empirical Study on Comparative Advantage and Structure Change in Knowledge-Intensive Service Trade about China, Japan and South Korea ——Analysis Based on RCA Index and TC Index etc.
HONG Shi-qin, HE Shu-zi
By the symmetry RCA index, a comparative study is made on China, Japan and South Korea’s comparative advantage and trade structure in knowledge-intensive services in term of the total imports and exports, trade structure and trade competitiveness. The findings indicate that China has large deficit in knowledge-intensive service trade, with an increasing tendency. In the knowledge-intensive trade in services domain, China’s comparative advantage was weak as a whole, there is still a large gap among China, Japan and Korea. In terms of the sub-item knowledge-intensive trade in services, China located in lower point of knowledge-intensive services chain, China's disadvantage industry is other two countries’ advantage industry, there are competition in China's export in communication trade and Korea export in communication trade.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 46-50 [
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51
Economies of Scale, Heterogeneous Productivity and Internationalization——An Extension Study of Krugman Model
ZHANG Sheng-yong
The feature of "local products and foreign sales" of export may produce economies of scale. This paper introduces economies of scale in the model of Melitz (2003), and draws a different conclusion: if the economies of scale induced by export is large enough, even if the profits of exports is negative, companies are still likely to enter the international markets. Through dividing the fixed costs, this paper incorporates "local market effects" of Krugman (1980), self-selection effects of Melitz (2003), and institutional quality effects of Zhang Jie etc. (2008) into a unified analytical framework.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 51-55 [
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56
Ownership Difference in Spillover Effects of Foreign Direct Investment——Based on Comparative Research of SOE and Enterprises of Other Ownership
YAO Yi
This paper analyzes the mechanism of spillover effects of FDI and effects of FDI on enterprises of different Ownership by the panel-data of 23 manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2007. It is found that Introduction of FDI implies an obviously positive competition effects and an unobviously negative imitation effects on SOE; furthermore,constrained by its own characteristics, enterprises of other ownership mainly obtain spillover effects through competition with SOE.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 56-60 [
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61
A Study on Carbon Emissions Embodied in China’s Exports to Japan and Structural Decomposition
WANG Fei, LI Juan
This paper investigates the energy and carbon embodied in Sino-Japan trade using input-output analysis through combining data on energy and trade. There are three main findings: (1) the energy and carbon embodied in China’s export to Japan is in great amounts, which has been growing fast since 1997. (2) There are three sectors which embody most carbon through export to Japan in 2007, that is, general and special manufacturing, chemical manufacturing and apparel, leather and down feather manufacturing. (3) Calculation based on SDA Model implies that efficiency increase in use of energy and resources could reduce embodied carbon emission, however, production technology, export scale to Japan and exported products structure are positively related to embodied carbon amount. Among these factors, the effect of trade scale between China and Japan is the most significant with a contribution rate of 119.02%.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 61-65 [
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66
Outsourcing and Wage Gap : Empirical Study Based on China's Industrial Data
YAO Jie, ZHANG Ya-bin, LEI Ri-hui
Based on the three-factor model of Feenstra R C et al(1997),this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of international outsourcing on wage gap between skilled labor and unskilled labor in developed and developing countries with an empirical study on how outsourcing activities affects the wage gap in overall and sub-sectors of China's industry by using industrial panel data. It is found that international outsourcing and technological progress both have significant positive effect on the expansion of wage gap in China's industrial sectors ,but outsourcing activities has relatively stronger effect on the labor resources-intensive sector and the medium-technology sector. Thus, China should develop effective income distribution policy to better deal with the relationship between efficiency and equity.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 66-70 [
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71
A Research on the Manufacturers’ Competition Strategies for the Supply Chain with Different Power Structure
QIN Juan-juan
With the game theory , this paer analyzes the manufacturers’ competition strategies in the two different power structures with equal power and the retailer dominant power: price competition strategy and quantity competition strategy. Firstly , the Nash model and the Stackelberg model are employed to describe the supply chain of equal power and the retailer dominant power, separately, on which, the optimal decisions of the supply chain’s players are obtained with the different competition strategies of the manufacturers. Secondly, from the manufacturers’ point, the choice of the competition strategies are discussed in the supply chain with different power structure. The results show that the choice depends on the products differentiation and the production cost.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 71-75 [
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76
Double Incentives Coordination in Supply Chain Based on Revenue——Sharing and Cost Partaking
HUANG Mei-ping, WANG Xian-yu, GENG Zi-yang
In a single-period two-stage supply chain, the supplier and relailer keep equal market power by hiding supplier’s production cost information and the retailer’s sales effort without a coordination main body . To deal with it, a virtual third party, as a selfless principal, is introduced to represent the whole interests of the supply chain, design the coordination mechanism basing on revenue sharing and effort cost partaking contract, and implement double incentives. The results show that if the revenue sharing proportion and cost sharing ratio meet some conditions within a certain range, the supply chain coordination could be realized, and the “win-win” for partners would be obtained. Finally, a numerical experiment is made to validate the results.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 76-80 [
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81
A Game Analysis on Cluster Supply Chain Crosswise Cooperation and Environmental Regulation
ZUO Zhi-ping
Based on the analysis of costs and benefits of cluster supply chain, this paper studies the relation between on environmental regulation and crosswise cooperation of cluster supply chain by game model. It is shown that material price and the fine of one unit by-product emissions are the driving power of cluster supply chain crosswise cooperation. The cost of reusing and the production scale of the wastes are the key factors for the realization of cluster supply chain crosswise cooperation. The legal regulatory costs of the government, the neglect of government regulation duty incurred the credibility losses, and the government fine of by-product emissions of the core enterprise directly affect the game result.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 81-84 [
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3442
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85
A Research on the Impacts of Housing Provident Fund System to Shanghai Housing Market Development
YANG Gang, WU Yan-hua
With state-space models and Kalman filtering solution, the empirical analysis shows that the Housing Provident Fund System of Shanghai has great impacts on Shanghai housing market in both the volume and price by pushing high the house purchasing power of Shanghai citizens and leading to Shanghai housing bubble. The influence on bubble mainly comes from the reconstruction plan by Shanghai government. It is advised to modify the present housing market policies of Shanghai as well as China to exploit the positive function of the Provident Fund System and restrain its adverse effects to further improve China's housing security system.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 85-89 [
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A Study on Efficiency in Technological Innovation of China′s Industrial Sector——Based on Stochastic Frontier Model
DAI Zhuo, DAI Hong-mei
Based on panel data of large and medium enterprises of China’s 37 industrial sub-sectors from 2003 to 2008, this paper studies the factors influencing efficiency of innovation by using the stochastic frontier model. There are four factors affecting the efficiency of innovation: market share, the proportion of engineers of technical personnel, the proportion of government investment and the proportion of technical personnel. It is found that the efficiency of technological innovation by industry obviously differentiates high in manufacturing, medium in excavation and low in public utility.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 90-94 [
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The Nature of Ownership ,Diversification and Cash holdings
DENG Ke-bin, CHEN Hao-yan
This paper makes a distinction on the nature of ownership and empirically investigates how diversification affects cash holdings with samples listing firms from 2007 to 2009 unbalanced panel data. It is found that China’s listing firms show no significant correlation between diversification and cash holdings. When distinguishing ownership nature for study, state-owned firms show significantly positive relation while non-state-owned companies show significantly negative. This empirical research indicates that compared with state-owned firms, non-state-owned firms may enhance the efficiency of ICM (Internal Capital Marketing) through diversification and reduction of cash holdings.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 95-99 [
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100
An Empirical Research on the Motivation of Delimitation in Two Kinds of Financial Assets
HE Xiao-yang, KANG Dong-mei
The paper researches the economic consequences of fair value accounting of listing companies by analyzing the difference of the accounting treatment of the two kinds of financial assets with the new CAS. It is found that management motivation of delimitation of the two financial assets was influenced by “stored profits” of the securities and for the securities the more changes in profits and losses of fair value, they are the more likely to be tradable. And furthermore, comparing with private firms, the entrepreneurs of he state-owned are more motivated for earnings management by the delimitation of two kinds of financial assets.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 100-104 [
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105
Emprical Study on Tunneling and Propping of Large Shareholder in China’ Listing Companies
PEI Hong-wei
The paper tests the tunneling and propping of large shareholder by introducing investment-cash flow sensibility based on the financial constraints in China’s listed companies. The results provide the empirical evidence for tunneling and propping of large shareholders in China’s listed companies and meanwhile verify Friedman Johnson& Mitton’s viewpoint that tunneling and propping is symmetrical.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 105-109 [
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3722
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An Empirical Study on the Relationship among Enterprise Sizes, Owner’s Property and Financing Constraints
ZHANG Chang-zheng, HUANG De-chun,
It is great difference to bear the change impact of interest rates among enterprises with different financing constraints. This paper studies the relationship between listed enterprise’s financing constraints and sizes, owner. It is found that with the expansion of size, financial constraints of China’s listed enterprise’s are increasing, which is contradictory to some research ; Owner’s property is closely related with enterprise’s financing constraints. State-owned listed enterprises are more constrained than non-state-owned listed enterprises. The stock market can restore the real financing constraints that China’s enterprises face to some extent.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 110-114 [
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115
A Study on the Forming Mechanism of Knowledge Transfer Stickiness between Organizations under Time Constraint
KONG Fan-shi, LIU Zhan-li, ZHAI Yun-kai
In the knowledge economy age, viscosity reducing becomes the key issue in the further research on knowledge transfer. Based on the related literature a review, it is stated that time dimension is an important influence factors of knowledge transfer stickiness. An adequate conceptual model is built for influence factors of knowledge transfer stickiness for further analysis.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 115-120 [
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121
An Analysis on the Effects of China’s Monetary Markets on Relationship between Inflation and Income Inequality in China——From a Wealth Threshold Perspective
KONG Xiang-li, REN Meng-yuan, ZHOU Ye-nan
Monetary markets have an important regulating action on the relationship between inflation and income inequality. By establishing mathematics models, this paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and income inequality in China through the perspective of threshold of wealth. The results indicates that, because of the wealth threshold in China, inflation raises the threshold of avoiding inflation, and the threshold further reduces the effects of avoiding inflation. Under the contest of contemporary China’s developing monetary markets, Johnsen Cointegration test and Granger causality test are conducted. The results prove the positive effects of China’s monetary markets on the relationship between the inflation and income inequality in China.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 121-125 [
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126
A Study on Shock Effect on Economic Fluctuations from China’s Credit Market Interest Rates
XU Ling-chao
This paper empirically analysizes of the relationship between the credit market interest rates and economic fluctuations by VAR model. The results of the study indicate that: (1) credit market interest rates on investment and consumption are in a negative and obvious impact with certain delay. And the impact on credit market interest rates from investment and consumption is very limited. (2) Investment fluctuations play a major role on output cycles. Output cycles have an impact on investment and consumption fluctuations but to a limited extent. The degree of investment fluctuations affecting consumption fluctuations is far greater than the latter on the former. Policy proposal made on these conclusions.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 126-130 [
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131
An Analysis of the Sanity Degree of Energy Structure Based on 3E Model
XU Shan, Fan De-cheng, WANG Shao-hua, ZHANG Wei
The structural contradictions are mainly shown as the energy bottleneck in China. Based on theory of energy economics, this paper puts forward three dimensions which are social and economic development, energy development planning as well as environment, from the perspective of requirements of low-carbon economy to energy structure. By analyzing elements of the various dimensions, it identifies fifteen measurement indexes by one-sample T test with SPSS16.0, and calculates the weight of each index with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Based on this, Energy-Economy-Environment (3E) model is built to empirically analyze sanity degree of energy structure from 2002 to 2008, in China. It is found that the changing trend of sanity degree of energy structure shows “U” shape, first decreasing and then rising. The energy structure plays more and more important role in meeting social and economic development while the enforcement of energy development planning and environmental improvements is to be improved.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 131-135 [
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136
Measurement and Benefits Evaluation on China’s Labor Market Integration
ZHAO Hui-qing, ZHOU Guo-fu
On the road of China's economic development transformation, the importance of labor markets integration has become increasingly prominent. But China's labor market segmentation still being serious, it poses a serious constraint to sustained and healthy development of national economy. By comparing the regional and industry differences in labor productivity and its marginal product, this paper measures the degree and trends of China's labor market integration. It is found that labor market regional segmentation has significantly weakened since the reform, while its industrial segmentation is quite serious. For the high technological and institutional entry barriers in industrial sector, traditional service sector has been the main fields for the transfer of agricultural surplus labor. Policy simulation shows that there are huge economic and social benefits within China's labor market integration.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 136-140 [
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141
Efficiency assessment of China commercial banks——An empirical Study on DEA
XUE Hua-yi, WU Qin
This paper analyzes the efficiency aspects in integer production, techniques and the scales of 15 principal Chinese banks by using DEA method . The study reveals that the core-competitiveness of Chinese bank has been enhanced with an overall high level efficiency , since Chinese Banks reformation 2002, which indicates the success of the Chinese financial reformation.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 141-145 [
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3399
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635KB] (
1989
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146
A Coordination Research between Inflation Control and Economic Growth Assurance
SONG Zhi-xiu, GE Xiang-yu
On basis of the VECM, this paper researches the cointegration relationship among interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, economic growth and inflation. They are interrelated. Interest rate, exchange rate and money supply growth affect inflation rate and economic growth affect the inflation rate. Interest rate is not Granger cause for economic growth and Granger causal relationship does not exist between exchange rate, money supply growth and economic growth.. The impact of the five variables on each other has a long lag effect. The target of maintaining growth and controlling inflation should can be achieved by deepening reform, improving the market mechanism and transforming the economic growth.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 146-150 [
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151
A Study of Investment Behavior of Funds and Stock Market Volatility——An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR and MGARCH Model
ZUO Zheng-qiang, WU Bin, ZHANG He-xiang
Based on VAR Model and MGARCH Model, the paper empirically studies effects of the fund investment activities and stock market volatility and its spillover by using aggregate data. It is found that the Funds' investment activities and the stock market fluctuations affected each other. The funds' investment activities have impact on the volatility of the stock market. From the volatility spillover effect, there is bidirectional volatility spillover effect between the fund investment and stock market volatility, but the spillover effect is small.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 151-155 [
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156
An Empirical Study on the Supply Efficiency of Local Public Goods in China
LI Jian-jun, ZHANG Chen-xin
Based on Chinese provincial panel data during the period 2003-2008, this paper empirically analyzes the supply efficiency of local public goods and its influence factors. It is found that the average efficiency of local public goods supply is about 0.9, with a room of 10% to improve. The supply efficiency of local public goods can be improved by increasing resident income, raising the proportion of transfer payment and extra-budget revenue, economic openness. However, the enhancement of population density and education level is helpful for a improved the efficiency.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 156-160 [
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2004
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161
The Public Services' Equalization Effect on Chinese Central Transfer Payments System: Dynamic Depict and Empirical Test
WANG Shou-kun
Through the kernel density estimation, Gini coefficient calculation and Theil index calculation,this paper investigates the distribution characteristics of the three fundamental categories of local public services, and it reveals that even though the public transport infrastructure services, public health services and public education services of each provinces have been upgrade relatively to some extent, but the discrepancy of those three categories of local public services is increasing over time. According to the theory of asymmetric and imperfect information, this paper points out that the Chinese central government may have some kind of political consideration to tame the local governments when they need financial resources to fill in the gap between local revenue and expenditure.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 161-165 [
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3493
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1993
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166
Fiscal Spending Composition and Economic Growth: A Study of the Developed Countries Model
LUO Hong-yu
The paper reveals that current (capital) fiscal spending had a positive (negative) effect on the economic growth by empirically studying the panel data from 1972 to 2006 of 13 developed countries, which is different from the point of view of some economists. Fiscal spending size, private investment and black market premium have significantly effects on economic growth.
2012 Vol. 1 (4): 166-170 [
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