河南省经济增长、财政支出与税收收入的动态计量分析

摘要河南省宏观税负偏低的原因及其合意性成为目前亟待研究的问题。对河南省经济增长、财政支出与税收收入的相关性进行的实证分析表明:河南省经济增长、财政支出与税收收入存在稳定可靠的长期均衡关系。短期内，税收收入的变化受到经济增长和财政支出的影响并不显著，经济增长、财政支出不是税收收入变化的原因。从长期看，正税清费、优化经济结构、转变经济发展方式、提高经济运行质量和效益是提高河南省税收负担的根本。

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	郝秀琴

关键词：税收收入经济增长财政支出实证分析河南省

Abstract： The reasons that macro tax burden of Henan Province is too low and its desirability have become an urgent problem to be researched. Based on the data from 1978 to 2008, through co-integration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test, the author comes to the conclusion that a reliable long-term equilibrium relationship exists between tax revenue, economic growth and financial expenditure. In the short term, the change in tax revenue is not significantly affected by economic growth and fiscal expenditure. Economic growth and financial expenditure are not the Granger reasons for tax revenue. In the long run, correcting taxes and clarifying fees，optimizing economic structure，converting economic growth mode, improving the quality and efficiency of economic operation are the fundamental measures to improve the tax burden of Henan Province

Keywords： tax revenue economic growth fiscal expenditure empirical analysis Henan Province

收稿日期 2011-01-15; 接受日期 2011-10-30;

基金资助:

河南省政府招标研究课题 (2009B094);河南省高等学校青年骨干教师资助计划项目(2009GGJS-072)

作者简介: 郝秀琴(1970-)，女，河南辉县人，经济学博士，河南财经政法大学财政税务系副教授，主要从事财税理论与政策研究。

引用本文:

郝秀琴.河南省经济增长、财政支出与税收收入的动态计量分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2011,4: 46-50

HAO Xiu-qin.A Dynamic Empirical Analysis of Economic Growth, Fiscal Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Henan Province[J] Economic Survey, 2011,V28(4): 46-50

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2011/V28/I4/46