我国服务业发展的影响因素——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

摘要利用2005年～2011年间省际面板数据对影响我国服务业发展的因素进行逐步的系统GMM估计,结果显示:劳动和资本要素投入对服务业发展均存在着稳定的但相对较小的正向影响,其中资本要素的影响较小;影响服务业发展的最主要因素是服务业集聚程度、服务业自身发展惯性、经济发展水平以及工业化水平,这些因素对服务业发展存在较大的显著的正向影响;最终需求对服务业发展存在显著的但相对较小的负向影响。因此,促进服务业的进一步发展需要增加现代服务业资本投入,刺激最终服务消费需求、推动服务贸易自由化以及引导服务业集群发展。

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关键词：服务业发展影响因素面板数据分析

Abstract： The article identifies the factors affecting the development of service industry by considering the regional differences and analyzes the impact of those factors on the development of service industry by the gradual system of GMM based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2011. The results show that labor and capital inputs have a stable but relatively small positive influence, of which the capital has a smaller effect; the main factors include aggregation degree of service industry, development inertia, economic development level and the level of industrialization, such factors have a larger significantly positive influence on the development of service industry; final demand has a significant but relatively small negative effect. Based on the above results, it comes to the conclusion that promoting the further development of service industry needs to increase capital investment in modern service industry, to stimulate the final consumption demand, to propel service trade liberalization and guide service industry cluster development.

Keywords： Development of Servicing Industry Influencing Factor Panel Data Analysis

收稿日期 2014-09-10; 接受日期 2014-09-10;

基金资助:教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC790201);湖北省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(13g178)

作者简介: 魏君英(1973-),女,湖北赤壁人,长江大学经济学院副教授,博士,硕士生导师,主要从事产业经济与贸易经济研究。

引用本文:

魏君英.我国服务业发展的影响因素——基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2014,5: 75-80

WEI Jun-ying.The Influencing Factors of the Service Industry Development in China ——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data[J] Economic Survey, 2014,V31(5): 75-80

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2014/V31/I5/75