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Economic Survey

	2020 Vol.37 Issue.2 Published 2020-03-10

	1	Spatiotemporal Evolution and Measurement Decomposition of Entrepreneurial Performance in China
		CHEN Jingxin, DAI Ming
		The paper measures regional entrepreneurial performance level by constructing an index system of entrepreneurial efficiency, growth performance and employment performance in China, and then analyses the spatial characteristics and regional differences of entrepreneurial performance. The results show that regional entrepreneurial performance is positive spatial autocorrelation, entrepreneurial performance shows an obvious polarization trend between eastern region and western region, the overall difference of regional entrepreneurial performance is in a tendency to decline in fluctuation. Decomposing by internal structure based on the Gini coefficient, the contribution of establishment performance to the total difference is dominant, but the contribution from growth performance or employment performance tends to increase, so it should not be underestimated. From the perspective of inter-provincial differences in the region, compared with the central, west and northeast regions, the inter-provincial differences of entrepreneurial performance in the eastern region are more obvious. In the light of spatial decomposition based on Thiel index, the contribution of the interregional difference to the total difference is dominant, but the problem of increasing intra-regional difference should also be paid enough attention to.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 1-8 [Abstract] ( 897 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 3086KB] ( 1150 )

	9	Entrepreneur Innovation Spirit and Transformation of Regional Economic Growth Mode
		ZHENG Xuanqi
		In the context of the continuous slowdown of China’s economic growth, the innovative production activities led by entrepreneur innovative spirit can transform basic knowledge and ideas into market-oriented goods through the intermediary role of entrepreneur human capital, thus promoting long-term sustainable economic growth. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces of China in 2011-2016 and the empirical analysis method of SYS-GMM, this paper constructs two econometric models of progressive relationships. And finds that the entrepreneur innovative spirit can significantly promote the long-term sustainable economic growth both in the whole country and in various economic regions, but the impact of entrepreneur innovative spirit on economic growth is different in different economic regions. The entrepreneur innovative spirit of the northeast region is showing great potential, the east region is still playing a leading role, the central region is in the growth stage, and the western region needs to continue to explore the entrepreneur innovative spirit. In general, the government needs to further improve the system and environment for cultivating entrepreneur innovative spirit, and provide reliable path support for the transformation of regional economic growth mode.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 9-18 [Abstract] ( 992 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1208KB] ( 1458 )

	19	A Research on the Relationships of Enterprise Diversity and Knowledge Creation, Business Performance ——An Analysis from Regional Innovation Space Perspective
		YUAN Xiangfei, GUAN Chenghua
		Over the past thirty years, technology innovation has been the critical strategy of Chinese government, and technology business incubators (TBIs) were expected to play a primary role in the process. After the “mass entrepreneurship and innovation” initiative was proposed in 2014, the number of TBIs in China had soared to 4,069 in 2017. Although there are abundant literatures on the relationship between TBIs and universities and research institutes, few are focusing on the inner structure of TBIs, especially from the diversity perspective. Based on the statistical panel data of Chinese incubators from 2015 to 2017, by using the Simpson Diversity Index, this paper measures the cultural diversity, industrial diversity and educational diversity of founders of enterprises in the regional innovation space. Through negative binomial regression model and truncated regression model, this paper discusses the influence of enterprise diversity in regional innovation space on knowledge creation and business performance. And it is found that: 1) there are significant inverted u-shaped relationships among enterprise diversity, knowledge creation and business performance, namely with the constant improvement of enterprise diversity in regional innovation space, knowledge creation and business performance firstly increase and then decrease. 2) The improvement of knowledge creation ability should mainly focus on cultural diversity, while the improvement of business performance should mainly focus on industrial diversity. In addition, two pieces of advice are supplied: one is to plan the appropriate internal enterprise structure of TBIs, the second is to make proper innovation strategy.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 19-26 [Abstract] ( 914 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1192KB] ( 1112 )

	27	Influence of Quality Difference in Universities of Liberal Arts and Science on Regional Innovation ——An Empirical Study Based on Higher Educational Quality
		WANG Qi, TAO Qiuyan, LI Tingzhou
		Higher educational quality exerts an influence on national (regional) innovation and enterprise innovation. Based on the relationship between universities’ quality and innovation, liberal arts universities and science and engineering universities have different effects on innovation, that is analyzed according to the data of provinces and enterprises and by using a count panel data model method. It shows that both of two types of universities promote regional innovation, but the optimal Gini coefficient of higher educational quality is different. Quality Gini coefficient of science and engineering university is 0.43, while the liberal arts university is 0.42. Meanwhile, it is the quality of science and engineering university that influences enterprise innovation. So, the allocation of higher education resources, humanitarian deposit and university alliance among different kinds of universities should be concerned.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 27-35 [Abstract] ( 725 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1288KB] ( 1308 )

	36	Multidimensional Poverty Transformation and its Influencing Factors in Rural Households ——Evidence from the Data of CFPS
		XIAO Pan, SU Jing, YAN Xiaomeng
		Using the data of CFPS and Logit model, this paper studies the influencing factors of multi-dimensional poverty transformation in rural households. The results show that: education and employment transfer of labor force play a key role in promoting households lifting out of poverty and preventing households from falling into poverty. Social capital is good for families to rise out of living, opportunities and medium poverty, but it has no positive effect on absolute and deep poverty. Health is good for getting rid of income poverty. The effect of family size on the transformation of living and opportunity poverty is different. Government subsidies have played no positive role in poverty alleviation. The influence of the age of householder on the transfer of income poverty, opportunity poverty, depth poverty and moderate poverty is characterized by the inverted “U” pattern. The impact on roll-in poverty is just the opposite. The impact of gender of householder, farming or not and village characteristics on multi-dimensional poverty transformation are different. Economic growth promotes income and living poverty alleviation, and prevent households falling into poverty. But there is no positive evidence for it to reduce opportunity and deep poverty.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 36-43 [Abstract] ( 900 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1192KB] ( 1379 )

	44	Health Shock,Labor Participation and Welfare Level of Rural Families ——An Empirical Analysis Based on China Household Income Project (CHIP 2013)
		BAO Yingying
		Based on the data of China Household Income Project (CHIP2013), this paper analyzes the impact on the welfare of rural households from health shock. The results show that, health shock has a negative significant impact on household welfare. Further analysis shows that, the participation of agricultural labor will reduce the income of rural households, while the participation of migrant labor will improve the income of rural households. The influence of health impact on rural household income level is affected to some extent by the family labor participation rate. In different groups, the welfare of families is affected by health shock with different education level, assets and age of household head, but the effect on different groups is different. Therefore, we should improve the health care level in rural areas, eliminate the binary structure of urban and rural areas, build a reasonable and orderly mechanism for social mobility and reduce the inequality among groups, improve the welfare of rural families.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 44-51 [Abstract] ( 877 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1166KB] ( 981 )

	52	A Study of Influencing Factors on Rural Land Lease Prices from the Perspective of Spatial Heterogeneity
		YANG Zhenyu, ZHANG Rixin
		The rapid increase in the cost of land rents is one of the important reasons why domestic agricultural production costs remain high, especially in the economically developed regions where grain is mainly sold, economic development has a huge uplifting effect on land prices, which will affect the generation of land rents. Based on the perspective of spatial heterogeneity, the paper explores the impact of farmland supply, labor density and economic development on land rental prices, using a set of land rental price data collected from 120 counties of Guangdong Province, and constructs an empirical analysis of OLS and GWR model. The results indicate: The spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity in land rental prices do obviously exist, and the impact of farmland supply, farmland demand and economic development on rents varies from region to region. According to the spatial analysis results of heterogeneity, local governments should improve the compensation mechanism for production and marketing areas and explore ways to support self-sufficiency in agricultural support subsidies, and pay more attention to the role of market in industrial upgrading.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 52-60 [Abstract] ( 796 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 5142KB] ( 1286 )

	61	Experience Accumulation and the Dynamic Feedback of OFDI——An Empirical Study from Chinese Mining Industry Companies
		CHEN Chen, CHEN Taotao
		This paper examines the dynamic feedback effect of OFDI activities from experience accumulation. Based on data from Chinese mining industry companies, by matching the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database and the List of Overseas Investment Enterprises (Institutions) from the Ministry of Commerce, this paper finds that companies’ former OFDI experiences have significant positive dynamic feedback on their latter OFDI activities. Besides, the companies’ scales also have significant positive impact on their OFDI. However, there is no evidence showing that the companies’ exports and the level of IFDI would affect the activities of OFDI. Multi-year test shows that, subprime mortgage crisis created opportunities for Chinese mining companies to invest abroad, while it weakened the marginal impact of experience accumulation. Under the rapid expansion of globalization, government policy is critical in the OFDI experience accumulation which could help domestic companies to achieve strategic assets and capabilities that could not be acquired in local market.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 61-68 [Abstract] ( 843 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1183KB] ( 1189 )

	69	Manufacturing OFDI, Technological Gap and Domestic Export Trade
		YANG Yi, YANG Shuili, YE Jianhua, CHEN Xiaohui
		Taking “Belt and Road” Initiative as an opportunity, using manufacturing OFDI to promote international cooperation on production capacity is an important way for China’s manufacturing industries to foster export competitive advantage. Employing panel data of China’s manufacturing industries OFDI toward 20 countries along the routes of “Belt and Road” during the years of 2005-2016, and from the view of different investment links in the industrial chain, the paper explores the mechanism of manufacturing OFDI on domestic export trade, and verifies the moderating effect of technological gap. The paper employs the Hausman test to determine whether to select fixed or random effects model. In order to avoid endogeneity problem, the paper further employs the GMM dynamic panel-data estimator to test the robustness of the results, and the results show that: Both horizontal and vertical OFDI can significantly promote the domestic export trade, and the backward integration embedding OFDI has the strongest promotion effect; The technological gap between China and the developing countries along the routes has significantly positive moderating effect between manufacturing OFDI and domestic export trade, however, the technological gap between China and the developed countries along the routes plays significantly positive moderating role between manufacturing OFDI and domestic export trade. Moreover, for the different investment links in industrial chain, the paper suggests making differentiated OFDI strategy; for the establishment of new trade connections, the paper suggests combining with the bilateral technological gap; for guiding industrial collaborative upgrading, the paper suggests making the overall arrangement on manufacturing OFDI resources.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 69-76 [Abstract] ( 854 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1674KB] ( 1193 )

	77	The Impact of Port Business on China’s Product Export ——An Empirical Research Based on the Countries along “The Belt and Road”
		WEI Boning
		The article uses the data published by the 2014 World Economic Forum’s Global Trade Promotion Report to quantitatively evaluate the port business environment of countries along the “Belt and Road” by using the cost, time, number of documents required for import, and the efficiency of customs clearance procedures and customs transparency indicators. It also uses the extended gravity model to study the impact of changes in the business environment of importing on China’s goods export at the product-national level. The results show that the improvement of port business environment in the countries along the “Belt and Road” is conducive to improving China’s export. Further heterogeneity studies find that compared with agricultural products, the optimization of port business environment has a greater role in promoting the export of industrial manufactured goods; the port business environment optimization in middle and high income countries plays a greater role in promoting China’s export than that in higher and lower income countries. The reduction of customs clearance fees, time and documents promote the export of new products in China more than the original export goods, while the improvement of efficiency and transparency plays a greater role in promoting the original export products. And the closer the country to China, the greater the impact of the business port business environment on China’s exports.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 77-85 [Abstract] ( 989 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1200KB] ( 1169 )

	86	The Spatial Spillover Effect of China’s High-tech Industry Agglomeration and its Regional Differences——A Spatial Econometric Study Based on Jechnological Distance Weighting Method
		WANG Peng, WU Silin
		The externality of high-tech industries is affected by the spillover effects of agglomeration, and the difference of spillover will be reflected in the regional differences in the development of high-tech industries. The paper carries on an empirical analysis on China’s high-tech industry agglomeration spatial spillover effects from national and regional perspectives with the single-regime and two-regime Durbin Model. The paper also takes a discussion on the differences of spatial spillover effect in the coastal area and inland. The results show that China’s high-tech industry agglomeration spatial spillover effect is obvious, the difference in the overflow direction lead to coastal area is given priority to with diversified agglomeration, inland is given priority to with centralized agglomeration. At the same time, the agglomeration of high-tech industries in China’s various regions has developed different levels of spillovers through R&D investment, investment and market size. Among them, the R&D fund investment promotes positive spillover, but the R&D personnel input has the inhibition effect. The positive spillover effect of investment in high-tech industries is obvious, and it also has a significant effect on local agglomeration. The expansion of market size will bring more competition and cause decentralization, weaken the convergence and restrain positive spillovers.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 86-96 [Abstract] ( 1369 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1225KB] ( 2307 )

	97	Production Service Industry Agglomeration, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Regional Ecological Efficiency Improvement——Based on Panel Data of 30 Provinces in Mainland China from 2003 to 2016
		WAN Lunlai, LI Hao
		Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2003 to 2016, and from the perspective of regions and five major types of producer services, by adopting mediating effect test method, this paper studies the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading in the process of promoting regional ecological efficiency through producer services agglomeration. The results show that: the upgrading of industrial structure plays a part of intermediary role in the overall agglomeration of productive services to promote regional ecological efficiency. Among them, the intermediary effect is significant in transportation, storage and postal industry, information transmission, computer services and software industry, and financial industry. In the economically developed eastern region, the upgrading of industrial structure plays a complete intermediary role in the process of promoting regional ecological efficiency by three types of agglomeration: transportation, storage and postal industry, information transmission, computer services and software industry, and financial industry; in the economically underdeveloped central and western regions, the upgrading of industrial structure fails to play a positive intermediary role, which has a masking effect in the process of three types of agglomeration, namely, transportation, storage and postal industry, information transmission, computer services and software industries, as well as scientific research and technology services, to promote the improvement of regional ecological efficiency.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 97-105 [Abstract] ( 870 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1190KB] ( 1155 )

	106	Relationship among System Quality, the Stability of System Quality and High-tech Industrial Agglomeration
		YOU Ruiling, CHEN Qiuling
		Based on the overflow effect and spatial dependence of high-tech industrial agglomeration, the paper studies the relationship among the institutional quality, the stability of institutional quality and high-tech industrial agglomeration by using spatial Durbin model. The institutional quality has a significant role for the region, other regions and all regions in promoting the agglomeration of high-tech industries. The stability of institutional quality only has a significant impediment role in the region. In order to analyze more accurately the relationship among them, the panel data quantile regression is used for in-depth discussion. The institutional quality has a significant role below 0.75, and the stability of institutional quality has a significant hindrance effect below 0.5.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 106-114 [Abstract] ( 908 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1328KB] ( 1046 )

	115	Corporate Strategic Deviation, CFO Financial Executive Ability and Corporate Cash Holding
		GAO Zhilin, CHEN Yan
		Based on the data of A-share stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2012 to 2017, combined with CFO financial executive ability, this paper examines the impact of corporate strategic deviation on corporate cash holdings. The results show that corporate strategy deviation is positively correlated with corporate cash holdings, the more corporate strategy deviates from industry conventional strategy, the higher corporate cash holdings; CFO financial executive ability can deviate from corporate strategy and corporate cash holdings. The correlation between levels plays a weakening role. The study finds that corporate strategic deviation in non-state-owned enterprises has a more significant impact on corporate cash holdings. Study shows that the corporate strategic deviation is an important factor in affecting the corporate cash holdings, and provides an important reference for the cash holding policy making.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 115-124 [Abstract] ( 953 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1205KB] ( 1288 )

	125	The Influence of Rent-Seeking Competition on Enterprise Performance——The Prisoner’s Dilemma of Enterprise Rent-Seeking
		LIU Feiran, HU Lijun
		This paper uses the data of China’s listed companies from 2000 to 2017 and focuses on the impact of rent-seeking competition on enterprise performance, and draws the following conclusions. The rent-seeking behavior of enterprise itself can promote enterprise performance, while rent-seeking competition among enterprises not only significantly inhibits enterprise performance, but also plays a moderating effect and makes the profits of enterprise’s rent-seeking activities decline through the internal mechanism of seizing government resources, increasing tax burden, and reducing the innovation level of enterprises. The paper further finds that the impact of rent-seeking competition on enterprise performance is heterogeneous, non-state-owned enterprises and small enterprises’performance are more seriously inhibited by rent-seeking competition. The findings of this paper show that rent-seeking competition among enterprises is a vicious circle of prisoner’s dilemma, and can be effectively restrained only by establishing a fair and transparent market competition mechanism.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 125-133 [Abstract] ( 822 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1190KB] ( 931 )

	134	Impact of Enterprises’ Political Connection on Technological Innovation and Economic Performance——A Theoretical and Empirical Study Based on the Moderating Effect of Firm Size
		CHEN Jinbo
		Based on the theoretical analysis, a mixed model of mediating effect and moderating effect is constructed. By conducting questionnaire surveys of enterprises in Henan Province, the impact of enterprises’ political connection on technological innovation and economic performance is empirically studied. The results indicate that enterprises’ political connection has a significant positive impact on economic performance, and technological innovation has a partial mediating role in the relationship between enterprises’ political connection and economic performance. The firm size plays a negative regulatory role in the influence of enterprises’ political connection on technological innovation and economic performance. Finally, this paper puts forward the policy and management recommendations for the government and enterprises to coordinate action and further optimize the political connection to promote technological innovation and improve economic performance of enterprises.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 134-140 [Abstract] ( 939 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1172KB] ( 1615 )

	141	Economic Growth, Income Distribution and Chinese Government Debt Risks
		KOU Hongwei, CHEN Zhang
		Based on the provincial panel data from 2008 to 2017, this paper constructs a fixed effect model to test the internal linkage mechanism between government debt and income distribution. The empirical results show that government debt is helpful to solve the problem of income distribution, which is the key to achieve sustained economic growth and reduce the risk of government debt. At the same time, through the regional division model, it is further confirmed that due to the difference of development degree and stage among regions, the improvement degree of government debt on income distribution has regional heterogeneity: the effect on the eastern region is the weakest, while the effect on the western region is the strongest. Therefore, at this stage, the risk of government debt does not exist in China. In order to solve the problem of income distribution faster and better, the central and western regions should further expand government expenditure and expand the scale of government debt. This paper can be used for reference for the understanding and further governance of government debt risk in the transitional period.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 141-149 [Abstract] ( 925 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1186KB] ( 1376 )

	150	A Research on the Effect of “Replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax” on the Total Factor Productivity of Producer Service Enterprises
		SHENG Mingquan,WU Shaomin, SHENG Anqi
		Based on the policy experiment of “Replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax” in 2012, this paper uses the Difference In Difference(DID)method to investigate the effect and mechanism of “Replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax” on the total factor productivity of producer service enterprises. The results show that compared with the life service enterprises, the total factor productivity of producer service enterprises increases significantly after “Replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax”. When compared with private enterprises, the state-owned enterprises are relatively more affected. According to the analysis of the intermediary mechanism, the policy of “Replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax” can improve enterprises’ total factor productivity by increasing the human capital input. The above test results provide empirical evidence for the policy effect of “Replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax” on producer services enterprises and point out how it affects enterprises’ total factor productivity, which has important theoretical and practical significance for realizing the industrial interconnection between producer services and manufacturing.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 150-158 [Abstract] ( 852 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1190KB] ( 1275 )

	159	Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bank Risk Taking——Based on the Evidence of the Banking System in China and the United States
		HE Guohua, WU Piao
		Based on the empirical data of the banking industries in China and the United States, this paper tests how the economic policy uncertainty works in the bank risk taking channel by constructing a dynamic panel GMM model, and by using the economic policy uncertainty index compiled by Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013). The results show that the economic policy uncertainty undermines the overall risk taking and credit growth of the banking system under the loose monetary policy in both countries. However, the test results of the discriminant sample show that the higher the economic policy uncertainty is, the state-owned banks are more inclined to take risk. According to the results of the credit growth rate affected by the bank’s risk taking, commercial banks in China have a lower credit growth rate with higher risk-taking, while commercial banks in U.S. show the opposite characteristics—the higher the risk-taking, the higher the credit growth rate.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 159-168 [Abstract] ( 850 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1345KB] ( 1847 )

	169	Can Real Estate Tax Relieve Financial Dependence on Land？——An Empirical Analysis Based on Synthetic Control Method
		XU Pengjie, WU Shusheng
		How to effectively balance the excessive dependence of local governments on land grant income is a practical problem, and also a key issue for scholars to study. In this paper, the pilot reforms of real estate tax in Shanghai and Chongqing are taken as a natural experiment. Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the impact of real estate tax reform on land financial dependence, and based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2006 to 2016, the effect of real estate tax reform on land financial dependence is empirically analyzed by synthetic control method, and the robustness test is carried out by combining ranking method and double difference method. The results show that the local governments in Shanghai and Chongqing have decreased their dependence on land finance in different degrees compared with that before the pilot project of real estate tax reform. This shows that local governments should focus on studying the current situation of local land financial dependence. Under the deployment of the central government, local governments can balance their revenue and expenditure structure by adjusting the real estate tax policy appropriately, so as to promote high-quality and sustainable development of the region.
		2020 Vol. 37 (2): 169-176 [Abstract] ( 1170 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1281KB] ( 1882 )

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