Can Real Estate Tax Relieve Financial Dependence on Land？——An Empirical Analysis Based on Synthetic Control Method
XU Pengjie1, WU Shusheng2
1.School of Business, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, China; 2.Policy Research Center of State Grid, Hunan Electric Power Company Limited, Changsha 410004, China
Abstract How to effectively balance the excessive dependence of local governments on land grant income is a practical problem, and also a key issue for scholars to study. In this paper, the pilot reforms of real estate tax in Shanghai and Chongqing are taken as a natural experiment. Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the impact of real estate tax reform on land financial dependence, and based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2006 to 2016, the effect of real estate tax reform on land financial dependence is empirically analyzed by synthetic control method, and the robustness test is carried out by combining ranking method and double difference method. The results show that the local governments in Shanghai and Chongqing have decreased their dependence on land finance in different degrees compared with that before the pilot project of real estate tax reform. This shows that local governments should focus on studying the current situation of local land financial dependence. Under the deployment of the central government, local governments can balance their revenue and expenditure structure by adjusting the real estate tax policy appropriately, so as to promote high-quality and sustainable development of the region.
XU Pengjie,WU Shusheng. Can Real Estate Tax Relieve Financial Dependence on Land？——An Empirical Analysis Based on Synthetic Control Method. Economic Survey, 2020, 37(2): 0169.
2020, Vol. 37 
