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Economic Survey

	2020 Vol.37 Issue.1 Published 2020-01-10

	1	Does the Functional Division in Urban Agglomerations Contribute to Economic Growth? ——An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of Top Ten Urban Agglomerations
		SHANG Yongzhen, CHEN Yao
		Under the background of increasingly refined global division of labor, the situation of functional division in China's urban agglomeration is becoming obvious. This paper studies the relationship between functional division in urban agglomerations and urban economic growth, by using the panel data of the top ten urban agglomerations in China from 2003 to 2016, distinguishing between central cities and surrounding cities and adopting the fixed effect model. The empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the economic growth and the functional division in central cities, with a significant negative correlation in surrounding cities. The specialized division of labor and cooperation mode formed within the urban agglomeration, in which the central city is dominated by productive service industry and the surrounding cities are dominated by manufacturing can significantly promote the economic growth of the city.On this basis, the following policy suggestions are put forward to deepen the functional division in urban agglomeration: strengthen the division of labor and cooperation between the center and surrounding cities to promote the complementarity of urban functions;accelerate the integration of urban infrastructure and public services to reduce barriers to factor flow; improve the mechanism for coordinated development to resolve conflicts of interests among cities.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 1-8 [Abstract] ( 978 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1272KB] ( 1498 )

	9	National High-tech Zones and Total Factor Productivity Growth of Cities in China——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Difference-in-Differences Method
		LI Jian, FENG Shan, DAI Yunhao
		Based on the panel data of 260 prefecture-level and above cities in 30 regions of China during the period from 2000 to 2016,this paper uses the three-input DEA-Malmquist index method to measure and analyze the growth rate of urban total factor productivity in China. Further,the paper makes use of DEA-Tobit model to empirically analyze the effect of the national High-tech Zones on the growth rate of total factor productivity in cities under the framework of Quasi-experiment and Difference-in-differences. The empirical results show that the establishment of National High-tech Zone has significantly contributed to the growth of total factor productivity in cities,but has heterogeneity.The contribution of the National High-Tech Zones to urban TFP growth is in the order of western,central,and eastern regions in China by regions.The effect of the establishments of National High-tech Zones on TFP growth in cities with high administrative levels was more significant than that of cities with low administrative levels.The establishment of a National High-tech Zone in a city with a population between 5 millions and 10 millions has a more pronounced effect on the growth of urban TFP.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 9-16 [Abstract] ( 1021 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1245KB] ( 1491 )

	17	An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of the Construction of Provincial Capital Economic Circle on Regional Eco-environment——Take Hefei Economic Circle as an Example
		TANG Tianwei, LING Yujie, SHI Feifei
		The influence of the construction of provincial capital economic circle on regional ecological environment is periodic, but there are few studies on the impact of regional ecological environment at present. In order to explore the impact of the construction of the provincial capital economic circle on the regional ecological environment, this paper takes the Hefei economic circle in 2010 as the research object, and evaluates the impact of the construction of the provincial capital economic circle on the regional ecological environment by using the synthetic control method. It is found that the influence of the construction of provincial capital economic circle on the regional ecological environment has obvious stage characteristics. When the construction of Hefei Economic Circle is in the growth stage, the environmental pollution brought by the rapid growth of population, the negative externality of the ecological environment caused by the industrial transfer of the secondary industry, etc., to a certain extent, aggravate the carrying capacity of the urban ecological environment in Hefei Economic Circle. At present, Hefei Economic Circle is in the early stage of maturity, strategic emerging industries and enterprises grow rapidly. The research and development of energy saving and emission reduction technology means has improved the pollution situation of the ecological environment in the region. Empirical analysis shows that only by continuously improving the economic development level of the region, continuously optimizing the industrial structure, and paying attention to energy saving and emission reduction technology innovation, can the quality of regional ecological environment be effectively improved.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 17-24 [Abstract] ( 649 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1411KB] ( 921 )

	25	A Study on the Impact of Income Inequality on CO₂ Emission from the Viewpoint of Urbanization
		SHU Kedong, LI Ying
		Global energy and climate problem are arising when economic development is continuing. At present, relative studies about emission amount of CO₂ have been hot issues in Economics, Management, Geography and so on. The relationship of per capita income and emission amount of CO₂ during urbanization is studied through STIRPAT model with panel data based on 2001-2016 in this paper. As studies have shown that urbanization has negative effect on emission amount of CO₂ and per capita income has positive correlation to it. It is found that elastic coefficients of per capita and urbanization to emission amount of CO₂ have big differences through STIRPAT model with different groups of income among provinces. Urbanization has positive correlation to emission amount CO₂ within group of higher per capita income, but negative correlation within group of lower per capita income. Elastic coefficient of per capita income to emission amount of CO₂ belonging to lower group of income is 1.7298 which is higher than the average level of the whole country. It shows increasing income for lower level group of income will lead to more emission amount of CO₂. In order to decrease emission amount of CO₂, deducing gap in personal income, reasonable urbanization layout are necessary and low carbon life is also advocated.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 25-31 [Abstract] ( 886 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1226KB] ( 1199 )

	32	A Research on Transfer Effects and Relationship of New Generation Rural Labor Force——Based on Survey Data of 7,549 Samples Nationwide
		ZHANG Wuwei, ZHANG Fuming
		Based on the survey data of 7549 new-generation rural migrant workers in 1,363 counties (cities, districts) of 356 prefecture-level cities in 31 provinces (cities and autonomous region), this paper analyzes the transfer effects and relationship of new generation rural labor force by using the structural equation model. The results show that:The transfer effects formed in the transfer of new generation of rural labor force mainly include the herd effect, the integration effect, the spillover effect, the saturation effect, the siphon effect and the polarization effect, and there is a chain reaction or effect among these six effects. A large portion of rural labor force of new generation moves to cities due to the herd effect, then is transformed into citizen due to the integration effect, thus correspondingly brings impact to the places of inflow and outflow due to spillover effect. Meanwhile, it becomes very difficult for rural workers to become city citizens because of the saturation effect when the rural labor force flowing into the city reaches a certain level. The outflow of the new generation of rural labor force leads to the decline of the rural area where the labor force flows out due to the siphon effect. At the same time some rural areas develop due to the polarization effect which comes into effect because of the backflow of rural labor force, the regurgitation of cities and the aggregation of rural resources to some villages.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 32-40 [Abstract] ( 773 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1399KB] ( 917 )

	41	Does the Concept of Old-age Pension, the Expectation of Health Status and the Perception of Social Equity Affect the Behavior of Rural Social Pension Insurance?
		ZHENG Wolin, WU Jianhui, ZHENG Rongbao
		This paper based on the data of CGSS, uses logistic and probit models to explore the influence of the behavior of farmers’ rural social pension insurance.Results show that the level of farmers’ participation tends to be normal, but the rural social pension insurance is not attractive enough.And the health status expectancy and social equity perception are the significant factors.The expected decline in health status can increase the possibility of farmers participating in insurance.The improvement of social equity perception can enhance the peasants’ social pension insurance effectiveness perception and expand the level of individual insurance participation.The concept of old-age pension is the insignificant factor.Family old-age pension is still the primary way for farmers to retire.The paper concludes that the government should abolish the binding regulations and improve the incentive and publicity mechanism, thus forming a new pattern that is dominated by family endowment,supplemented by village endowment and supplemented by social endowment insurance.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 41-49 [Abstract] ( 772 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1234KB] ( 1382 )

	50	Income and Participation Behavior of Urban and Rural Residents for Medical Insurance
		ZHU Yueming, ZHANG Xing, ZHANG Guangke
		Based on 1012 households survey data of rural households in Hubei Province and Henan Province, the paper expounds and proves in detail the relationship between household income and participation in the New Rural Cooperative Medical System (NRCMS), and explores the differences in the impact of income on the participation and health investment behavior of the NRCMS. There are five main conclusions in this paper: Income of peasant households has a negative impact on hospitalization behavior, that is, increasing income will reduce the probability of hospitalization behavior of peasant households; hospitalization behavior of peasant households is positively correlated with the participation behavior of NRCMS; income after participating in NRCMS has a positive effect on the probability of hospitalization treatment of peasant households; because of the differences in certain aspects, like benefiting level of households, affordability of local government, implementation of policies, there are differences in the effects of the two provinces on the hospitalization behavior of farmers in South China. The data from Hubei Province show positive effects, while the data from Henan Province show negative effects. The more obvious the characteristics of pension income of the NRCMS, the more active the participation behavior of farmers in the NRCMS, there is more hospitalization behavior. The less obvious the income characteristics are, the more active the farmers are in investing in health, the probability of hospitalization treatment is lower. The estimation results of the age role of the head of household in the two provinces are contrary, indicating that the age characteristics of the two provinces' participation groups are different, which indirectly reflects the difference between the degree of policy acceptance and the willingness of the participants.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 50-58 [Abstract] ( 929 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1244KB] ( 1354 )

	59	Does High-Quality BITs Effectively Prevent Chinese Outward Investment from Risks in Host Countries?
		LIU Jing
		With the increase of global economic uncertainty risks, the contradiction between the “growing but not strong” Chinese outward foreign direct investment and the inefficiency of the existing China’s Bilateral Investment Treaties has become increasingly prominent. Based on the panel data of China and its' 103 host countries from 2003 to 2017, this paper constructs and measures the quality index of Chinese Bilateral Investment Treaties, and testes the influence of Bilateral Investment Treaties quality on China’s outward foreign direct investment by Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood estimation. The results show that: high qualified Bilateral Investment Treaties reduce the expropriation risks and other abuses of investment barriers caused by institutional defects in the host countries and promote China’s outward foreign direct investment, but the quality of Bilateral Investment Treaties fails to reduce the risks in host countries with robust institution. Institutional distance inhibits China’s outward foreign direct investment to high-risk host countries with poor institution, while the high qualified Bilateral Investment Treaties promote China’s outward foreign direct investment by defining the protection standards offered by the host country for overseas investment through strict provisions design. Hence, it is necessary to systematically identify the host country heterogeneity of Chinese outward foreign direct investment risks. Bilateral investment Treaties concluded with low-risk host countries should focus on new trends in terms of pre-establishment national treatment and negative list. With high-risk host countries, the details of various expropriations that may cause potential losses and the introduction of separate “umbrella” clauses should be attached great importance to.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 59-67 [Abstract] ( 791 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1272KB] ( 1338 )

	68	Foreign Direct Investment and Redundant Rural Labor Force ——Based on the Perspective of Complex Network
		ZHU Pengfei, ZHAO Dezhao, WU Gang
		Based on the perspective of complex network, this paper uses complex social network analysis to test the spatial network association between foreign direct investment and redundant rural labor force. The results show that, the transfer of redundant rural labor force in China and FDI are “universally connected” in space, and the two networks have many similar characteristics in terms of network accessibility and central area. Although the overall level of space association network between redundant rural labor force and foreign direct investment is not high but stability and multiple overlapping of it, respectively has 223 and 268 spatial relations. The QAP regression results show that, FDI and the adjacency of geographic location has a significant positive impact on the spatial correlation and spatial spillover effect of redundant rural labor force, which has effect of “First come, first served.” This paper provides an evidence for the transition from developing countries to objectively evaluate the impact of foreign direct investment in the host country for the transfer of redundant rural labor force, also has important policy implications for the future adjustment of China labor market policy.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 68-76 [Abstract] ( 847 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 3934KB] ( 894 )

	77	Regional Innovation Efficiency of High-tech Industries, Spatial Spillover and International Trade Intensity
		ZHANG Han, YANG Xiaoxin, YIN Peng
		Using the provincial panel data, this paper measures regional innovation efficiency (rie) of high-tech industries, and then build dynamic spatial Dubin model to analyze the influences and spatial spillover effects of rie on international trade of high-tech industries, finally to estimate the threshold effect. It is found that: Wholly average level of rie are high with trend of convergence. The local effect of rie is higher than the diffusion effect of that. The improvement of rie can effectively enhance the enthusiasm of high-tech industries to participate in international trade. Notably, the positive influence of rie is restricted by the level of market competition. Both openness and FDI have positive influences and spillover effects, while market competition has negative effects. The rie makes a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the international trade intensity of high-tech industries. The influences and spillover effects of variables on the major four economic zones are somewhat different.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 77-85 [Abstract] ( 800 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2261KB] ( 1061 )

	86	An Analysis of the Employment Effect of China’s Minimum Wage System ——Evidence from Provincial Industry Data
		PU Yanping, ZHANG Yuke
		In this paper, the employment effect of the minimum wage system was tested for the first time from the perspective of detailed industries by using the data of the inter-provincial panel data of 23 industrial industries in China from 2001 to 2016 and adopting the systematic GMM method. It is found that the employment effect of the minimum wage system is significantly different in different industries. Minimum wage has a significant negative impact on employment to the capital intensive, smaller and low proportion of state-owned capital industry, has no obvious effect on employment to the labor intensive and high proportion of state-owned capital industry, has a significant role for larger industry employment. Furthermore, the industry group regression results are verified by subdivision. The robustness test still supports this conclusion. The establishment of the minimum wage standard of governments at all levels should take into full account of the characteristics of the industry, so that the minimum wage standard can truly play the biggest role in safeguarding the rights and interests of workers.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 86-95 [Abstract] ( 765 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1271KB] ( 1620 )

	96	Financial Space Characteristics, Technological Innovation Capability and Industrial Structure Upgrading——Taking the Eight Economic Circles as an Example
		HE Yiqing, WU Zhengbo, WU Tao
		Giving the measurement index of the financial space characteristics, this paper uses the panel data of China's 30 provinces and cities from 2005 to 2016 to measure and compare the inter-regional financial space characteristics, technological innovation capability and industrial structure from the perspective of economic zones, and studies the coupling relationship and spatial effect of these three systems. Then through the spatial panel model, it analyzes the impact of the financial space characteristics and technological innovation ability and their interaction items on the industrial structure upgrade. The results show that in the measurement of financial space characteristics, technological innovation capability and industrial structure, the eastern coastal economic zone has the highest score, followed by the northern coast and the southern coast, then followed by the northeast region, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwest region, and the northwestern region is at the end; the coordination degree of the three regions in each region has increased year by year, and has a strong spatial correlation; on the basis of lowering trade cost, increasing the rate of return on investment, the financial space characteristics and technological innovation capability can promote the upgrading of industrial structure in the region, and the technological innovation capability and industrial structure upgrading have spatial spillover effects on the upgrading of industrial structure outside the region, while the optimizing of financial space characteristics can transfer lower-end industries to surrounding areas, so to have an inhibitory effect on the upgrading of industrial structure outside the region.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 96-104 [Abstract] ( 843 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1720KB] ( 898 )

	105	An Empirical Study on Relationships of Industrial Agglomeration, Maketization Degree, and Industrial Innovation Performance——Evidences from Chinese High-Tech Industry
		LIU Xie, MENG Yong
		This paper studies how industrial agglomeration affect industrial innovation performance under different levels of marketization in high technology industry. Firstly, by building a research model of industrial agglomeration, marketization degree, and industrial innovation performance, this paper analyzes their mechanism. Secondly, by applying a random effect model, it empirically examines the balanced panel data in high technology industry from 31 provinces in China between 2009-2016. It is found that: (1) industrial agglomeration has an invert U-shape influence on industrial innovation performance; (2) market index level has a positive effect on the invert U-shape relationship between industrial agglomeration and industrial innovation performance. The agglomeration enhances the network connections, forms scale effect in the area, and promotes the innovation performance in high-tech industry. When agglomeration reaches to a certain degree, the density of network is too high, it will lead to over-crowed and excessive competition effect, cause a higher cost of factors, management and so on, and reduce the industrial innovative performance. Marketization degree can not only promote the network activeness of agglomeration, but also intensify the instability of relations under high density of network. The research expands the theoretical and empirical research on industrial agglomeration and industrial innovation. The practical advice is also provided.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 105-113 [Abstract] ( 763 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1306KB] ( 889 )

	114	Executive External Compensation Gap, Corporate Governance Quality and Enterprise Innovation
		LUAN Fugui, JI Yafang
		Innovation is a key factor for the survival and development of enterprises, and it affects the performance of enterprises. Based on tournament theory and social comparison theory, the paper studies the influence of the gap among executives’ external compensation on the mechanism of enterprise innovation, and the influence of the quality of corporate governance on this mechanism. The results show as follows: When the enterprise executive pay is higher than the industry average executive compensation, the external compensation gap can improve the enterprise innovation, the effect is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises and the high level of corporate governance; When the enterprise executive compensation is lower than the industry average executive compensation, managers’ sense of unfairness restrains the innovation. The effect is also more significant in non-state-owned enterprises and high level corporate governance. Further research shows that innovation input and innovation quality are positively correlated with enterprise value respectively.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 114-122 [Abstract] ( 1236 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1297KB] ( 2287 )

	123	A Research on Signaling Effect under the Dividend Diversified Strategy
		MA Pengfei, DONG Zhu
		This paper researches dividend signaling effects of listed companies in China from 2007 to 2016 in the views of the signal content and the receiving system. The conclusions are: (1)Both mixed dividend and single cash dividend are good signal, but signaling effect of mixed dividend is much efficient than single cash dividend; (2) The signaling function of combining annual dividend and interim dividend is better than once a year dividend; (3) Only normal cash dividend is the benchmark of signal effect, abnormal high cash dividend and abnormal low cash dividend are not; (4) The signaling effect of normal stock dividend is not better than large stock dividend. The research finding supports the 2008 revision of the “semi-mandatory dividend” policy, and explains why CSRC does not impose more stringent restrictions on large stock dividend.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 123-131 [Abstract] ( 775 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1254KB] ( 1502 )

	132	The Influence of the Directionality and Asymmetry of Interinfiltration between Work and Non-work Boundaries on Job Burnout
		SUN Hui, CHEN Hong
		This paper proposes the relationship hypothesis between the directionality of work and non-work penetration and job burnout, and using polynomial regression studies the influence of infiltration direction on job burnout. The research results show that: work to non-work penetration is positively related to job burnout. Non-work to work penetration and job burnout have a positive U-shaped relationship. There is a U-shaped surface relationship between work to non-work penetration, non-work to work penetration and job burnout. The two curves formed by non-work to work penetration and work to non-work penetration completely match and completely mismatch divide the U-shaped surface into four regions. In area I and area III, when non-working to work penetration and work to non-working penetration gradually change from approaching to deviation, job burnout is first reduced and then increased. In area II, the higher the degree of deviation, the higher job burnout, and in area IV, the higher the degree of deviation, the lower job burnout. The conclusion of this study provides a theoretical basis for the design and management of work and non-work boundaries to reduce employee burnout.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 132-139 [Abstract] ( 739 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1602KB] ( 1675 )

	140	Economic Policy Uncertainty,Corporate Information Disclosure and Debt Financing——Based on the Perspective of Different Creditors
		LIU Huihao, FENG Yongjia
		Based on the sample of SZSE A-share listed firms during 2007 to 2017, from the perspective of different creditors, this paper examines the impact of the quality of corporate information disclosure on commercial credit financing and bank loan. And it studies in the context of the rising of economic policy uncertainty, how the impact changes. The results show that the firms of higher quality of information disclosure can get more commercial credit when financing needs are constant, but bank loan that is insensitive to information decreases when the quality of information disclosure is higher. It is more remarkable for firms with lower financing restriction. In addition, economic policy uncertainty weakens the positive impact of information disclosure on commercial credit financing, and it adds to the negative impact of information disclosure on bank loan. It is more remarkable for firms in areas where financial intermediaries are more developed.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 140-149 [Abstract] ( 852 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1270KB] ( 1179 )

	150	A Research on Structural De-Leverage of Monetary Policy-Driven Enterprises under the Background of Supply-side Reform——Based on the Perspective of Interest Rate Marketization Reform
		LI Huamin, REN Ding, WU Fei, REN Xiaoyi
		The author uses the listed companies in the main board market as the analysis carrier to study the structural impact of monetary policy on corporate deleveraging. Studies have shown that interest rate liberalization helps drive “de-leveraging” of overall leverage, financial leverage and long-term leverage. Of course, interest rate liberalization has obvious heterogeneity in the structural de-leveraging effect of enterprises. From the macro-impact mechanism, interest rate liberalization can optimize the money supply and improve the development level of the banking sector. From the perspective of micro-impact mechanism, interest rate liberalization can improve the internal cash flow and improve the risk stability, thus effectively driving the enterprise’s de-leveraging behavior. Finally, the economic performance of various types of leverage of the enterprise was examined and obvious structural characteristics were found. The conclusions of this paper will help to optimize the monetary policy orientation and promote the effective structural de-leveraging process of enterprises.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 150-158 [Abstract] ( 853 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1254KB] ( 1040 )

	159	Financial Structural Leverage, Asset Return and Economic Volatility
		ZHANG Xin
		The balance sheet variables of financial institutions have information value for predicting the excess return of assets in time series. Commercial banks’ deposit liabilities are often unable to meet the flexible expansion of their balance sheets, and their marginal financing is also got through repurchase, capital market and other financial market means. The US financial market is dominated by direct financing represented by capital market. The balance sheet variables of securities companies and shadow banks are often more representative of their financial market risk preference. This paper proposes to use the structural liabilities and structural leverage of other deposit companies to represent the risk preference relationship in China’s financial market. On the one hand, the indirect financing represented by commercial banks is the main part of China’s financial market. On the other hand, the use of structural liabilities can more accurately represent the marginal changes in the balance sheet of commercial banks, thus more accurately depicting the risk preference relationship in China’s financial market. Empirical research shows that the structural leverage variable of Chinese financial institutions has predictive ability for the excess return of stocks and bonds in time series. Furthermore, it can use structural vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between financial structural leverage, asset prices and economic fluctuations. The study finds that there is a dynamic relationship among financial institutions’ balance sheets, credit spreads and macroeconomic variables.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 159-166 [Abstract] ( 794 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1376KB] ( 1180 )

	167	Financial Subsidies, R&D Investment and Enterprise Innovation Performance: A Model Test of Regulatory Mediator Effect under Institutional Differences
		MEI Bingjing, LUO Jianchao
		This paper uses data from 862 enterprises above designated size in Bengbu City, Anhui Province (2015-2017) to explore whether there is an incentive effect of financial subsidies on corporate innovation performance. And it establishes a regulated mediation effect model to examine the mediating effect of R&D investment and the adjustment effect of institutional differences in the path of financial subsidies which affect enterprise innovation performance. The study finds that financial subsidies can significantly improve the innovation performance of enterprises and have higher incentive effects for non-state-owned enterprises; the scale of R&D investment is the intermediary factor that affects the innovation performance of enterprises; the institutional differences have a positive regulatory effect on the first half and negative regulatory effect on the second half of the intermediary path of R&D investment scale, that is “financial subsidies → research and development scale” path in Finance. The incentive effect of government subsidies on R&D scale of non-state-owned enterprises is stronger than that of state-owned enterprises; the expansion of enterprise R&D scale can create more innovation performance; combined with the direct path and the intermediary path, the overall use of government subsidies by non-state enterprises will result in higher innovation performance.
		2020 Vol. 37 (1): 167-176 [Abstract] ( 923 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1471KB] ( 1979 )

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