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Economic Survey

	2019 Vol.36 Issue.5 Published 2019-09-10

	1	Spatial Agglomeration Pattern and Spatio-temporal Evolution of Talents in China
		LIU Hui, HU Sen-lin
		According to China Talent Resources Statistics Report between 2010 and 2015, the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) model is adopted to describe the spatial agglomeration characteristics of talents in China and its spatial-temporal evolution patterns. The research shows that the spatial distribution of Chinese talents is not balanced, presenting a “center-periphery” pattern in which southern and eastern regions enjoy an intensive distribution of talents while the northern and western regions have a sparse one. Due to the differences in distribution scale and degree of agglomeration, different types of talents have formed a pattern of multi-centered agglomeration. Among them, the party and government talents and highly skilled talents form a dual-centered pattern while enterprise operation and management talents and professional and technical talents form a multi-centered and banded cluster, and rural practical talents form a single-centered circular pattern. From the evolution trend, the spatial distribution pattern of talents shows a reverse evolution trend in which the agglomeration is increasing in the central area and decreasing in the peripheral area. The degree of spatial autocorrelation of talent gathering is enhanced, mainly in the mode of high-high cluster and low-low cluster. Based on this, it is suggested that talent management departments should innovate trans-regional management system and adopt the “two-way adjustment” through economic and administrative means to alleviate the unbalanced allocation of talent space caused by “talent competition” and to promote coordinated regional development.
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		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 1-8 [Abstract] ( 1135 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2127KB] ( 1180 )

	9	Housing Burden, Public Services and Population Agglomeration —Empirical Analysis Based on 48 Cities of Three Major Urban Agglomerations in China
		LI Wei-jun
		Since the reform and opening up, along with the rapid increase of urbanization rate, housing burden and public service show increasingly prominent impact on population agglomeration. This paper uses the panel threshold model to discuss the relation of housing burden and public service to population agglomeration in 48 cities in China’s three major urban agglomerations from 2007 to 2016. The results show that housing burden and public services have significant threshold effect on population agglomeration with significant regional differences. On the one hand, housing burden is positively correlated with population agglomeration. However, in first-tier and second-tier cities, it is diminishing in marginal effect, while in third-tier and fourth-tier cities, it shows an inverted u-shape feature of increasing first and then decreasing. On the other hand, public services are also positively correlated with population agglomeration, with diminishing marginal effect in first-tier and second-tier cities and increasing marginal effect in third-tier and fourth-tier cities. Therefore, to promote population agglomeration, differentiated population attraction policies should be adopted in different cities. First-tier and second-tier cities should focus on reducing the housing burden while improving the efficiency of public services, and third-tier and fourth-tier cities should continuously increase the supply of public services.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 9-16 [Abstract] ( 1053 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1134KB] ( 893 )

	17	Research on the Influence Mechanism of Financial Agglomeration on Technological Progress —A Comparative Perspective on Cities and Airport Hub Economic Zones
		SUN Jian-guo, GAO Yan
		Based on the panel data of 24 cities and airport hub economic zones from 2007 to 2016 in China, this paper studies the impacts of financial agglomeration on the technological progress of cities and airport hub economic zones and its differences by using dynamic GMM method. The results show that in cities, financial agglomeration and banking agglomeration have a significant impact on the total factor productivity(TFP) while in airport hub economic zones, there is no obvious impact on TFP from the agglomeration of urban finance, banking, securities, or insurance as opposed to a significant positive effect from government support. This shows that there is regional difference in the impact of financial agglomeration on technological progress in China. Especially in airport hub economic zones, financial agglomeration does not promote technological innovation or development of industries in the zones. Furthermore, the airport hub economic zones in China still follow the government-led extensive development model in which urban finance agglomeration does not fully realize its function of optimizing capital allocation. Therefore, local governments should formulate rational policies of urban financial agglomeration development according to the characteristics of various urban factors, and guide the effective agglomeration of financial industries that meet the need of urban development in various functional areas of the city.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 17-24 [Abstract] ( 999 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 893KB] ( 874 )

	25	Producer Service Industry Agglomeration, Regional Economic Integration and Urban Innovation Economic Growth
		LIU Li-ping, LIU Jia-shu
		This paper establishes the theoretical and econometric models from the comprehensive view of production function theory and new economic geography. Then it uses the spatial econometric method to analyze the effects of producer services agglomeration and regional economic integration on urban innovation economic growth in Anhui province and its three adjacent metropolises in the period of 2010-2016. The results show that under the background of regional economic integration, the agglomeration and growth of innovative economy and producer services in catching-up provincial cities bear the significant impact of its adjacent metropolises in developed areas. The agglomeration of producer services has a positive spillover effect on urban innovative economic growth. Urban scale, FDI and government funding of science and technology promote urban innovation economy agglomeration and growth, while the telecommunication network has diversified spillover effects. Therefore, in order to promote the steady growth of urban innovation economy, it may be the reasonable policy options to promote regional economic integration, optimize the agglomeration and structure of producer services, accelerate the development of open economy, appropriately upgrade the scale and quality of cities, actively play the role of government financial guidance and construct the dislocation development of urban innovative economy
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 25-32 [Abstract] ( 933 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1426KB] ( 737 )

	33	Social Capital, Private Lending and Farmers’ Poverty
		ZHAO Ling-ya
		By using data of China Family Panel Studies 2014, the paper empirically analyzes the impact of social capital on farmers’ poverty and its influencing mechanism. The study finds that, social capital can significantly alleviate farmers’ poverty when adopting national or international poverty standard, and the effect still exists under robustness test after using tool variable method to overcome endogenous problem. Social capital is positively correlated with farmers’ private lending, which can alleviate farmers’ poverty by influencing private lending, or in other words, to realize farmers’ poverty alleviation and targeted poverty alleviation by following the influencing mechanism of “social capital→private lending →farmers’ poverty”. Therefore, to increase farmers’ social capital and private lending plays an important role in alleviating farmers’ poverty
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 33-40 [Abstract] ( 960 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1044KB] ( 1137 )

	41	Does Internet Use Promote the Non-Agricultural Income Growth for Farmers? —An Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS2015 Survey Data
		YANG Ning-ze, ZHOU Jing
		In the background of the rural rejuvenation strategy, the key to solving “the problems of agriculture, rural and farmers” lies in decreasing the urban-rural income gap and improving farmers’ non-agricultural income. Based on Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) 2015 survey data, this paper uses least square method and propensity score matching method to analyze the impact of Internet use on farmers’ non-agricultural income. The results show that the use of the Internet can effectively increase farmers’ non-agricultural income. After overcoming the sample self-selection problem, Internet use can still bring farmers a 41.2% to 51.1% non-agricultural income return. In addition, the promoting effects on non-agricultural income is more significant in low-educated and middle-aged and senior farmers. It is recommended that the government increase investment in Internet information technological facilities in rural areas and provide corresponding technical support and financial subsidies for farmers using the Internet, so as to give full play to the positive role of the Internet in promoting the increase in non-agricultural income of farmers.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 41-48 [Abstract] ( 1148 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1085KB] ( 876 )

	49	Analysis of Influencing Factors of the Paid Withdrawal of Rural Homestead from the Perspective of Rural Revitalization
		LI Ying-chao
		Based on the field investigation of rural homestead in Henan province, a structural equation model was adopted in the analysis. The findings are:1) The paid withdrawal of rural homestead exerts its effect on the willingness of withdrawal through family characteristics, characteristics of homestead and individual characteristics of rural households, which influence the income, employment and livelihood of rural households. Among those factors, family characteristics have the greatest impact on the willingness with an influence of 0.58. 2) Among the measurable indicators, some individual characteristics such as a young age, better education and a high preference for cities, and some household characteristics such as the inclination towards non-agriculture in family labor structure and a low proportion of agricultural income can better promote the paid withdrawal of rural homestead. So it is suggested to carry out targeted skill training according to family characteristics of farmers, to explore paid withdrawal paths for diverse types of homestead, and to orderly promote rural homestead paid withdrawal according to the different level of urban development
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 49-55 [Abstract] ( 927 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1406KB] ( 799 )

	56	Study on Spillover Effects of Social Capital Participating in Targeted Poverty Alleviation —Estimation Based on Ordered Probit Model
		ZHENG Zhi-long, WANG Tao-tao
		The participation of social capital in targeted poverty alleviation is conducive to building China’s combined force in all-round poverty alleviation. Based on the survey data of 182 villages in Henan province, this paper studies the spillover effects of social capital participating in targeted poverty alleviation by constructing an orderly Probit selection model. The result shows that the participation of social capital in rural targeted poverty alleviation has prominent spillover effect on agricultural structures of administrative villages, the governance structure in rural areas as well as the improvement of farmers’ abilities, the sense of life collaboration, and the momentum of sustainable development. Therefore, in order to better put to play the positive effect of social capital participating in targeted poverty alleviation, the government should offer greater support for the investment of social capital in poverty-stricken areas, build a benefit affiliating mechanism for social capital to participate in the targeted poverty alleviation, and innovate the organizational model for poverty alleviation resource delivery
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 56-63 [Abstract] ( 922 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 885KB] ( 767 )

	64	Does the Increase of Openness Promote Regional Economic Growth? —An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of Countries Along the “one Belt and one Road”
		MA Wei,CAO Xiao-shu,LI Tao,GAO Xing-chuan
		Based on the panel data of 66 countries from 2000 to 2015, this paper systematically examines the impact of openness on economic growth of countries along the “Belt and Road” (BRI) by developing a comprehensive evaluation index system of openness and adopting the panel data model. The empirical results show that first, openness presents a rising trend year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.24%. Second, on the whole, openness has a significant positive impact on economic growth, but shows no Kuznets Curve effect. Third, from a temporal perspective, openness significantly promoted economic growth from 2000 to 2008, but after 2008, the impact showed a downward trend. Fourth, from a regional perspective, openness has a greater positive impact on economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe, Community of Independent States and South Asia, as opposed to that on Central Asia、West Asia/North Africa. At last, from the perspective of countries with different economic levels, there exists a spindle effect. In other words, openness has a greater positive impact on upper and middle income countries and a smaller impact on other countries
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 64-71 [Abstract] ( 1056 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1367KB] ( 981 )

	72	Cultural Distance and China’s Overseas M&A Performance: An Empirical Study Based on Cross-border M&A Experience
		PEI Zhen,PENG Fei
		Taking 1150 overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) cases of 96 Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies during the period 2010-2015 as samples, this paper explores the heterogeneity of cross-border M&A from a cultural perspective and empirically analyzes the influence of regional culture heterogeneity on the performance of cross-border M&A. The results show that the cultural distance of host country and regional rice culture will reduce the performance of cross-border M&A of Chinese listed companies. The larger the scale of M&A, the greater the negative impact of cultural distance and rice culture. Overseas M&A experience of listed companies can mitigate the negative impact of cultural distance and rice culture on the scale performance of overseas investment, and thus enhance the overseas investment performance of Chinese listed companies. But the positive effect will weaken as the scale of M&A increases
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 72-78 [Abstract] ( 1445 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 879KB] ( 1155 )

	79	Study on the Policy Effect of Free Trade Zone on Industrial Structure Upgrading —A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Shanghai Free Trade Zone
		LI Shao-kai, LI Lu-yi
		Using quarterly provincial data, this paper evaluates the policy effect of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone on the level of industrial structure upgrading by means of synthetic control method under the frontier “counterfactual” framework. The study finds that the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has a significant positive impact on the industrial structure supererogation but a weak one on the supererogation of processing with average processing effects of respectively 30.61 and -1.84. Through the time-point changes of the establishment of the free trade zone, placebo test and DID average effect test, the above conclusions remain strongly robust. Further research finds that the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has no obvious impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in other provinces and cities in the short term, and even shows a certain negative effect. It will be the future way of development to rigorously guide the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and to enhance the regional demonstration spillover effect of the construction of the free trade zone.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 79-86 [Abstract] ( 1081 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1628KB] ( 843 )

	87	Does Industrial Agglomeration Promote Regional Corporate Financing? —Evidence from Listed Companies in Automobile Manufacturing Industry
		SONG Zhen-dong, LEI Hong-zhen, LAN Juan-li
		Based on the completion of fixed assets investment in industrial areas, a method for calculating the degree of industrial agglomeration is constructed as well as a theoretical model of industrial agglomeration and corporate financing that takes agglomeration degree as signal. Taking the data of fixed assets investment and annual reports of listed companies in automobile manufacturing industry in 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2015, this paper investigates the influence of agglomeration on the excellent enterprises’ financing ability within the industry. The result indicates that there is a negative relationship between the agglomeration and the financing ability of excellect enterprises in automobile manufacturing industry in China on both national and regional levels. Investors have significant motives for short-term investment profit which makes it difficult for funds to keep accumulating in high-quality enterprises. Given the homogenization of various automobile manufacturing clusters, investment is dispersed and the investment returns are low, which limits the development of high-quality companies. Therefore, monitoring the industrial agglomeration degree and the financing situations of corporations while taking agglomeration degree as signal can effectively decide the phase of agglomeration, guide the agglomeration regions in adjusting industrial structure, promote the industry upgrading and facilitate investment procurement and growth for excellent enterprises.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 87-95 [Abstract] ( 913 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1157KB] ( 727 )

	96	Research on the Impact of Manufacturing Upgrading on Economic Growth Under a Global Perspective —Based on the Dynamic Panel Model with Interactive Items
		LI Lei
		Based on data from the world’s 75 economies from 2000 to 2014, this paper integrates the intra-industry upgrading of manufacturing into a dynamic panel model with interactive items. Then it empirically studies the direct and indirect effect and the total effect of the upgrading on economic growth and compares it with the effects of inter-industry upgrading of manufacturing. The result shows: Firstly, intra-industry upgrading of manufacturing has significant direct effect on economic growth while the direct effect of inter-industry upgrading on economic growth is not stable; Secondly, intra-industry upgrading of manufacturing can significantly promote economic growth through service sector, and the degree of promoting effect is greater than that of inter-industry upgrading; Thirdly, the partial effect value of manufacturing upgrading indicates that intra-industry upgrading in general plays a significant role in promoting economic growth, which is far stronger than the weak promoting effect of inter-industry upgrading in general after eliminating the unstable direct impact
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 96-103 [Abstract] ( 889 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 926KB] ( 902 )

	104	The Effect of Land Resource Misallocation on Urban Agglomeration Characteristics —From the Perspective of Industrial Agglomeration and Structure
		ZENG Long, LI Yan-ling, LIU Yuan-feng
		Land resource misallocation is an important measure of local governments in guiding regional industrial development. Using the panel data of 281 Chinese cities of prefecture-level and above from 2003 to 2016, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the extensive land resource allocation, which is characterized by low price and agreement transfer, on industrial agglomeration characteristics, and then investigates into its heterogeneity. The results show that the higher the proportion of construction land transfer by agreement, the lower the diversification of industrial agglomeration development. The impact of land resource misallocation on the diversification of industrial agglomeration shows significant regional differentiation, time difference and administrative difference. In the meantime, the greater degree of land resource misallocation is, the worse it is for the rational development of industrial structure. Therefore, the local government should implement the land transfer policy and optimize the land transfer structure according to local conditions so as to promote the diversification of China’s industrial agglomeration and the rational development of industrial structure
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 104-111 [Abstract] ( 922 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 906KB] ( 973 )

	112	The Dual Path Influence Analysis of Supervisor Developmental Feedback on Employee’s Voice Behavior —Based on Social Exchange Theory and Social Cognitive Theory
		SU Wei-lin, LIN Xin-qi
		Based on social exchange theory and social cognitive theory, this study takes leader-member exchange and voice efficacy as mediating variables and constructs a dual path impact model of supervisor developmental feedback on employees’ voice behaviors. It then test the hypotheses by using 476 sets of supervisor-employee pairing data. The results show that supervisor developmental feedback has a significant positive influence on leader-member exchange, employee’s voice efficacy, and on voice behavior. Besides, both leader-member exchange and employee’s voice efficacy partly mediate the influence of supervisor developmental feedback on employee’s voice behavior. Meanwhile, the mediating role of leader-member exchange in the relationship between supervisor developmental feedback and employee’s voice behavior is greater than that of employee’s voice efficacy.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 112-119 [Abstract] ( 1126 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1087KB] ( 1026 )

	120	The Dual Path Influence Analysis of Trust on Emotional Exhaustion of Employees
		ZHAO Hui-jun,LV Jing
		Based on the conservation of resource theory, this paper analyzes the survey data by means of descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis and structural equation analysis to construct and test the dual path model of trust influence on emotional exhaustion of employees. The results indicate that:1) Both cognitive trust and emotional trust have a negative influence on emotional exhaustion; 2) Cognitive job insecurity plays a partial mediating role between cognitive trust and emotional exhaustion while emotional job insecurity plays a complete mediating role between emotional trust and emotional exhaustion; 3) The interaction of cognitive trust and emotional trust affect employee emotional exhaustion in which the trust combination of “High Cognition and Low Emotion” presents the most significant effect on employee emotional exhaustion. The results reveal the internal mechanism of trust influence on employees’ emotional exhaustion and provide practical guidance for the organization to alleviate the emotional exhaustion of employees
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 120-127 [Abstract] ( 866 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1010KB] ( 794 )

	128	The Perceived Employee Over-qualification and Deviance Innovation —Research on Chain Intermediary Relationship Based on Paradox Mindset
		WANG Zhao-hui
		Traditional research pays more attention to the positive and dark side of perceived overqualification. However, in real-life situations, employees may also exhibit deviant and innovative behaviors that are both positive and negative. Based on paradox theory, a theoretical model of the relationship between perceived overqualification and employees’ deviant innovation is constructed to reveal the different mediating effects of employee’s conflict experience and paradox mindset. Based on the survey data of 287 employees, the analysis results show that perceived overqualification of employees increase tension experiences, which results in a stronger paradox mindset that in turn, promotes employees’ deviance innovation. The experience of tensions and paradox mindset play the chain mediator role between perceived overqualification and deviance innovation. The research conclusions help employees to correctly deal with emotional contradictions or cognitive contradictions caused by overqualification, and to enhance paradox mindset so as to exert individual innovation potential.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 128-134 [Abstract] ( 955 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 801KB] ( 894 )

	135	Does Executive Incentives Affect Analysts’ Prediction Behavior?
		ZHU Jie
		Based on the sample of China’s A-share listed companies in the years 2007-2017, this paper empirically examines the impact of executive incentives on analysts’ prediction behavior. It is found that both executive compensation and executive equity incentives can significantly improve analysts’ coverage and optimistic forecast tendency. However, the impact of executive compensation incentive and executive equity incentive on the accuracy of analysts’ prediction is heterogeneous. Specifically, executive compensation incentive significantly improves the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts by improving short-term performance, while executive equity incentive increases short-term performance volatility by improving the risk-taking ability of executives, which in turn reduces the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. Further research shows that executive power distorts the corporate governance effect of executive incentive to a certain extent, and this distorted effect is recognized by analysts, which affects analysts’ predictive behavior of listed companies.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 135-142 [Abstract] ( 932 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 988KB] ( 1071 )

	143	The Chinese-style Fiscal Decentralization, Jurisdictional Competition and Local Government Investment —Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data
		YIN Qiang,FENG Hui
		Investment is an important policy means for local governments to promote economic growth. Financial incentives and political promotion are important motives that affect the economic behavior of local governments.Based on panel data of 30 provincial governments, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of fiscal decentralization and jurisdictional competition on local government investment. The main conclusions are: in areas with higher fiscal decentralization, the power of market entities is more active as opposed to a weaker government investment in areas whose source of funds is within the budget. When measuring the investment of local governments against the fixed assets investment of the whole society, fiscal decentralization is positively related to local government investment, reflecting that fiscal decentralization enables local governments to have the ability and space to exert influence on market entities so as to expand the scale of investment. The competition among jurisdictions and local government investment are positively correlated in various regression analyses, reflecting the tendency of local governments to expand investment, optimize investment environment and attract liquid capital.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 143-150 [Abstract] ( 944 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 938KB] ( 690 )

	151	A Study on Behavior of Personal Internet Wealth Management Based on the Double Standards of “Perceived Risk and Perceived Value”
		SUN He, REN Jin-zheng, WANG Bei-bei
		Based on Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) and data of 1678 valid samples, this paper establishes a double-standard behavioral model that explores the impact of risk and value on personal Internet financial behavior. The empirical results show that subjective feelings have an important impact on individual behavioral outcomes. When the concept of decision criteria is rationally expanded, the resulting double standard model incorporating perceived risk and perceived value can better explain personal Internet financial management behavior. Among the two standards, the risk standard enjoys dominance, which is most prominently represented by dimensions of psychological risk and financial risk. The value standard is negatively affected by the risk standard, whose major dimension is its functional value.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 151-157 [Abstract] ( 900 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1028KB] ( 1067 )

	158	Information Disclosure Quality and Debt Financing Options of Listed Companies —Empirical Analysis Based on Data of Information Disclosure Evaluation from Shenzhen Stock Exchange
		HUANG Xiu-nv, QIAN Le-le
		Based on the panel data of information disclosure evaluation of listed companies in Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2001 to 2016, this paper combines the panel fixed effect model with the Tobit model to study the impact of information disclosure quality on the debt financing options of listed companies. The results show that: 1) The increase in the quality of information disclosure can help the company obtain debt financing from the open market; 2) The higher the quality of information disclosure is, the more inclined the company is to allocate long-term debt in debt maturity. The increase in the quality of information disclosure is conducive to optimizing the corporate financing structure and lowering the risk of misallocation of debt maturity, which can ensure debt sustainability and eventually help achieve the goal of optimizing leverage structure.
		2019 Vol. 36 (5): 158-164 [Abstract] ( 878 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 776KB] ( 1029 )

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