Abstract Using quarterly provincial data, this paper evaluates the policy effect of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone on the level of industrial structure upgrading by means of synthetic control method under the frontier “counterfactual” framework. The study finds that the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has a significant positive impact on the industrial structure supererogation but a weak one on the supererogation of processing with average processing effects of respectively 30.61 and -1.84. Through the time-point changes of the establishment of the free trade zone, placebo test and DID average effect test, the above conclusions remain strongly robust. Further research finds that the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has no obvious impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in other provinces and cities in the short term, and even shows a certain negative effect. It will be the future way of development to rigorously guide the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and to enhance the regional demonstration spillover effect of the construction of the free trade zone.
LI Shao-kai,LI Lu-yi. Study on the Policy Effect of Free Trade Zone on Industrial Structure Upgrading —A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Shanghai Free Trade Zone. Economic Survey, 2019, 36(5): 079.
2019, Vol. 36 
