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Economic Survey

	2017 Vol.34 Issue.1 Published 2017-01-10

Orignal Article

	8	Urbanization, Concentration of Population and Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Spatial Dynamic Panel Model
		FANG Da-chun, ZHANG Fan
		There are different views about whether to enlarge these primate cities or to balance the development of the cities in academia. This paper tries to set up a spatial dynamic model to explore how population concentration in urbanization affects economic growth which is based on the data of 31 Chinese mainland provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) during 2001-2012. The result of spatial autoregressive dynamic panel data model shows that the population urbanization as a whole has a promoting effect on economic growth. The bigger the primate city size in urbanization is, the more damage there is to regional economic growth. The estimated results of Space dynamic Durbin model not only support the spatial autoregressive model’s result, but also to some extent, prove that the increasing level of urbanization in adjacent provinces has a promoting effect on regional economic growth. The higher primacy ratio in adjacent province cities, the more negative effects on the region’s economic growth. Fixed capital, financial investment can stimulate the economic growth of the region and adjacent areas. Human capital has a negative effect on the economic growth of adjacent regions.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 8-13 [Abstract] ( 2306 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 837KB] ( 1268 )

	14	The Analysis of Influence Factors of Chinese Urban Labor Productivity——Based on the Panel Data of 286 Cities
		WU Hao
		This article introduces human capital investment, industrial structure, urbanization level, capital per worker and labor inputs in total output function to investigate how they influence labor productivity. Research methods as FE, RE, Tw-FE, LSDV, FGLS were used. Selecting the panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities, this article finds human capital investment, industrial structure, urbanization level and capital per worker have a significant effect on the promotion of labor productivity. In general, capital per worker has the biggest promoting effect on labor productivity, but the influence becomes stable. Human capital investment and urbanization level also improve labor productivity increasingly, besides, the human capital investment is the most potential core driving force. However, there is diseconomies of scale in labor inputs. From the perspective of space, the promotion force of human capital investment and capital per worker in the middle and west to enhance the labor productivity is higher than the east. In the east, the enhancing effect of urbanization is higher than the middle and west. Industrialization shows the negative impact on labor productivity in the east, but the situation is opposite in the middle and west. Furthermore, labor factor input is showing diseconomies in the east and middle, but in the west the situation is opposite. In general, the recent human capital investment has the most remarkable effect on the promotion of labor productivity in China, the increment and development of which should be highly valued to achieve long-term sustainable economic growth.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 14-19 [Abstract] ( 2042 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 766KB] ( 1384 )

	20	Research on Regional Carbon Efficiency and Total Factor Productivity in China ——Based on a Three-Stage DEA Model
		XIANG Tian-dong
		At present, if our country wants to achieve carbon emissions reduction, we must rely on the improvement of efficiency and total factor productivity. This article selects the panel data of 30 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) in China during 2000-2014, and makes empirical analysis using three-stage DEA model. The results show that the comprehensive technical efficiency is low in the examined 30 provinces. The comprehensive technical efficiency of the western region is the highest, and the pure technical efficiency of the eastern region is the highest. The eastern region is higher than the central and western region on technical efficiency, while the western region is higher than the central region. The technological progress is decreasing from the eastern to the central and western in China. At the same time, the total factor productivity in the east is higher than that in the central and western regions. To improve the efficiency of China’s carbon emissions and total factor productivity in the future, our country can rely on increasing research investment, encouraging technological innovation and application, optimizing industrial structure, improving the energy structure, improving the level of opening up.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 20-25 [Abstract] ( 1825 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 792KB] ( 1063 )

	26	Opportunities、Environment and Innovation Efficiency of High-tech Industries
		WANG Hui
		With the input and output data of high-tech industry innovation from 30 provinces in China, based on the three-stage DEA model, this paper analyzes China’s high technology industry innovation efficiency. The main conclusions include that the overall level of innovation efficiency in China’s high-tech industry is somewhat low; the government behavior,regional human capital,and the informationization level have a significantly negative influence on high-tech industry innovation production efficiency, while the regional economic development level and financial support have a significantly positive impact on high-tech industry innovation production efficiency. The further analysis indicates that stripping away the environment factor and random errors, scale efficiency is the main reason to restrict the promotion of innovation efficiency, and a three-stage DEA model is more reasonable than the traditional DEA method and one-phase SFA method to measure the efficiency of high-tech industry innovation production efficiency.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 26-31 [Abstract] ( 1776 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 951KB] ( 981 )

	32	Diversified Employment Choices of Farmers under the Influence ofFamily and Personal Factors: Based on CFPS Data
		LIU Yu-cheng, XU Hui
		Based on CFPS data and the Multinominal Logistic Model, this paper studied the diversified employment choices of farmers under the influences of family and personal factors. The main results are as follows: the family factors and personal factors play important roles in the diversified employment choices of farmers and the influences of these factors are different significantly when farmers are choosing different types of job. The family factors such as family income and family finance assets and the personal factors such as health status and educational background positively influence the selection of non-agricultural employment of farmers, while other family factors such as family population and family cultivated lands positively influence the selection of agricultural employment of farmers. Under the influence of single factor such as family income, age, gender and education level, the employment choices of farmers have obvious preference ordering.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 32-37 [Abstract] ( 1901 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 757KB] ( 1170 )

	38	The Social Security System、the Social Capital and the Rural Elderly Farmers’ Health——An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese General Social Survey Data in 2010
		GUO Xi-qing
		This study uses factor analysis and regression analysis to explore the impact of social security, social capital on rural elderly farmers’ health by Chinese General Social Survey data in 2010. Factor analysis shows that social trust is divided into the two factors of special trust and general trust, and the elderly farmers’ health is divided into the three factors of the subjective self-rated health, objective mental health and objective physical health. Regression analysis shows the new rural cooperative medical insurance and new rural basic pension insurance for the elderly have no role in promoting health. Special trust factor has a role in promoting the subjective self-rated health, while the effect of general trust factor on which is negative. Studies suggest that improving security systems, upgrading rural social capital, developing the rural economy are important ways of improving the health of the elderly farmers in rural areas.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 38-43 [Abstract] ( 1945 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 849KB] ( 1034 )

	44	Structural Dividends in Agricultural Department: Based on the Research of Growth and Volatility Effects
		ZHOU Chuan-bao
		This paper decomposes the changes of agricultural structure into rationalization and advancement, and constructs econometric models of the relations between adjustment of agricultural structure and agricultural growth and agricultural production cycle, and makes empirical research on the structural bonus. The results show that for the “fast” growth effects, both the short-term adjustment and extension of agricultural production are conducive to releasing the potential of the long-term expansion; for the “steady” growth, the distortion of the agricultural structure is not conducive to the formation of steady expectation in agricultural markets. If the deep adjustment of the agricultural structure is not made, we can expect more volatility in the future, and the cycle will continue. And the high-class agricultural structure is conducive to stable agricultural production, which is mainly due to growing maturity of market mechanism and improvement of the laws and regulations in agricultural markets. The nature of high-class structure is to utilize market to counter market. This paper argues that the government should emphasize structural rationalization of agriculture departments in the formulation of agricultural development strategies, as well as promoting high-class agricultural structure to make the best use of the role of structural dividends.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 44-49 [Abstract] ( 1662 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 824KB] ( 984 )

	50	Research on the Mechanism of Food Traceability System to Consumers’ Perception of Uncertainty——by the Case of Pork Consumption in Shandong Province
		CUI Chun-xiao, WANG Kai, LI Jian-min
		Using the data form 591 questionnaires of consumers about traceability pork in Shandong province, this paper focuses on whether the food traceability system can reduce the consumers’ sense of uncertainty by using the structural equation model. The results show that consumers’ perceived uncertainty can be reduced when adopting Food Traceability System (FTS) because of both their perceived information asymmetry and reduced fears of seller opportunism, which enhances the consumer’s purchase intention and willingness to pay the premium for traceability of pork. But the correlation between the product diagnostic and the consumer sense of uncertainty can not be verified. The paper tries to give some suggestions to the related management department for promoting the development of the food traceability system construction, such as regulating the disclosure information content of the traceability system to facilitate consumers’ diagnosis of food and simplifying the corresponding certification procedures to reduce the tracing cost.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 50-55 [Abstract] ( 1738 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 838KB] ( 992 )

	63	The Impact of Internationalization of the Renminbi on Its Surrounding——Based on the Change of Anchor Currency
		XU Yu-wei
		On July 1, 2009, six ministries including the People’s Bank of China jointly issued the cross-border trade RMB settlement pilot management measures, which is a mark for the formal implementation of the cross-border trade RMB settlement pilot, and an historic step of the RMB internationalization. In this paper, China’s neighboring countries’ currencies and the international currencies in the period of 2005-2009 and 2009-2014 are regressed. The results find that since July 1, 2009, RMB has a significant impact on the currencies of surrounding eight countries and regions, which has established its strong currency status. The Euro, the Dollar and RMB have become three strongest currencies. The result shows that the official start of the internationalization of RMB has made its international acceptance greatly improved, and further promote the influence of RMB on neighboring countries.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 63-68 [Abstract] ( 1554 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 888KB] ( 1136 )

	69	The Influencing Factors of China’s Service Exports to High-income Economies: An Empirical Study Using Gravity Model and Random-effect Panel Data Model
		SHAO Jian-chun
		This article selects 19 high-income economies as representatives, then constructs a new Gravity model, and after unit root and co-integration tests on the 2001-2013 panel data, adopts a Panel-data Random-effects model to conduct an empirical study on the factors influencing China’s services exports to high-income economies. The results show that China’s goods exports, its services export’s sophistication upgrading, real FDI from high-income economies as well as bilateral GDP increases are producing positive effects, while the appreciation of RMB’s real effective exchange rate and the distance variable demonstrate negative responses.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 69-74 [Abstract] ( 1724 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 917KB] ( 1012 )

	75	The Influence of the Service Outsourcing Supplier’s Competitive Strategy on the Demanders’ Decision
		CHEN Fei, PAN Wei-wei
		This paper studied the impacts of service suppliers’ competitive strategy (geographic strategy, service strategy and management strategy) on the demanders’ outsourcing decision with the data of Outsourcing Research Network project of Duke University. The results include: when a supplier established near-shore delivery center or global delivery center (geographic strategy), supplied client-specific service (service strategy), expanded service scale and scope (management strategy), the demander was inclined to outsource its business to this supplier. On the contrary, if a supplier offered some near-core service, the demander would not outsource the business to the supplier. Finally, this paper put forward some suggest on global delivery, service scale and onshore outsourcing.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 75-80 [Abstract] ( 1661 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1014KB] ( 974 )

	88	Measurement on Market Distortions in the Manufacturing Sector——Based on Perspective of Technology Progress Deviation and Capital Deepening
		ZHONG Shi-chuan
		This paper builds a theoretical framework for calculating factor price distortion coefficients by elements of the enhanced production function. On the basis of this, it also decomposes factor price distortion coefficients which is determined by technology progress deviation diversity and capital deepening change. This paper estimates factor price distortion coefficients by using China’s manufacturing data over period 1978-2013. The analysis results show that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is significantly greater than 0 and less than 1, and the relative capital enhanced technological progress rate is rising in most sectors. After 1990, the factor price distortions factor of most manufacturing sectors are showing a downward trend. The main reason for the factor price distortions in the industry is the extensive economic growth mode which causes capital deepening change.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 88-93 [Abstract] ( 1866 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1027KB] ( 992 )

	94	Heterogeneity Influence of Demographic Trends on House Price
		ZOU-Jin
		From the perspective of heterogeneity, this paper discusses the different influences of population aging on regional house price. Applying the panel cointegration theory and dynamic panel estimation methods,it comes to the following conclusions: (1) Elderly population has contributed to rising house prices, and there is a contradiction between the high house prices and housing affordability for young people in eastern China. (2) Whether aging of population will lead to future downside risk in the real property market is related to the buying power of rigid demand in the future. (3)We should pay attention to regional housing price bubble, and it is desirable for the policy rule to be forward looking.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 94-99 [Abstract] ( 1972 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 954KB] ( 1088 )

	100	The Influence of Leading Economy and Emerging Economy on Commodity Prices——A MS-VAR Approach
		JIA Rui ,QIAO Jia-jun
		This paper uses MSIH(2)-VAR(3) model to study the influence of leading economies and emerging economies on the commodity price. Empirical results show that bulk commodity price responds more dramatically when the global economy is in bad situation. Leading economies’ liquidity has a significant influence on commodity price while the influence only improves a little when taking emerging economies into consideration. On the contrary, real economic factors of leading economy have no significant influence on the bulk commodity price, which improves a lot when taking emerging economies into consideration. In different economic times, different policies should be adopted according to different economic situations and target price. At the same time, the spillover effect of developed countries’ currency policy to bulk commodity market should be concerned.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 100-105 [Abstract] ( 1712 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1340KB] ( 1035 )

	106	The Influence of Knowledge Cost on the Selection of Control Mode for Longitudinal Branches——Based on State Owned Groups with Pyramidal Structure in Shanghai
		LI Ying-qi, LI Jing
		This paper analyzes the influence of knowledge cost on the choice of proper control modes within enterprise groups. Taking the state-owned groups with pyramidal structure in Shanghai as our sample, stripping away the agency costs which is another factor on the control cost of vertical branches management, we firstly decompose the knowledge cost into two parts: knowledge stock and knowledge transfer, then analyze the effects of them each separately and the relationship between them on levels of different longitudinal control chains. According to the analysis, we propose three corresponding modes with different centralization degrees and costs that can be applied to different longitudinal branches control, and summarize the specific management and control means for each mode.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 106-111 [Abstract] ( 1751 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1103KB] ( 1071 )

	112	The Impact Mechanism of Servant Leadership on Employees’ CO-OCB——The Mediation of Felt Obligation and the Moderation of Perceived Leader Power
		TIAN Qi-tao
		This study examined the impact mechanism of servant leadership on employees’ customer-orientation organizational citizen behavior by focusing on the mediating role of followers’ felt obligation and the moderating role of their perceived leader power. Using time-lagged data from 226 supervisor-follower pairs in three commercial banks in Henan province, China, this study found that servant leadership positively influenced followers’ customer-orientation OCB, and this influence was mediated by followers’ felt obligation. In addition, moderated path analysis indicated that employees’ perceived leader power weakened the direct effect of followers’ felt obligation on customer-orientation OCB. The higher the perceived leader power, the weaker the influence of followers’ felt obligation on customer-orientation OCB, and vice versa.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 112-117 [Abstract] ( 1785 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 878KB] ( 1348 )

	118	A Study about the Effect of Charitable Donations on Corporate Performance——Based on the Empirical Research of A-share Listed Companies from 2005 to 2014
		OU Shao-hua, LIU Xiao-ju
		By constructing a multiple regression model and using panel data of charitable donations of Chinese listed companies from 2005 to 2014, this paper investigates the effect of charitable donations on corporate performance. The results are as follows: Charitable donations have significantly positive influence on enterprise performance, and compared with the state-owned enterprises, charitable donations have more significant influence on non-state enterprises performance. This conclusion provides theoretical foundation for the company to do charitable donations well. At the same time, based on the theoretical and practical values of charitable donations, the author suggests the company can take charitable donations as a long-term development strategy.The state-owned enterprise management should be improved and the cognition of corporate social responsibility should be strengthened. The enterprises should make good use of media to convey charitable concept reasonably, and the government should strengthen the supervision and introduce some policies like improving the transparency of charity information.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 118-123 [Abstract] ( 1747 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 859KB] ( 1064 )

	124	Asset Bubble and Economic Fluctuation in the Financial Accelerator Framework——An Example in China Around Subprime Crisis
		CHEN Wei, MA Jun-chi
		This paper studies the relation between asset bubble and economic fluctuation in China by using BGG model with asset bubble. First, it introduces BGG model with asset bubble, which forms the system consisting of core variables, such as net asset value, investment scale, asset bubble, etc. Then using statistic data, econometric tool and references, it estimates 22 parameters in the model. Finally, based on the model we discussed, it analyzes economic real fluctuation in China around subprime crisis and makes numerical simulation for the model. The simulation shows that there is larger economic fluctuation in the economy with the bubble than the one without the bubble. The character of economic fluctuation around subprime crisis in China accords with the character of oversold-crash, i.e., asset price is lower than its value during crash. The monetary policy which is focusing on asset bubble could avoid the economic fluctuating substantially, but its ability to deal with negative output fluctuation in crisis period is weaker than dealing with the positive output fluctuation in bubble period. Positive financial policy could lower the effect caused by the negative shock; but the excessive investment stimulation could amplify the economic fluctuation.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 124-129 [Abstract] ( 1794 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1207KB] ( 1065 )

	130	Spatial Econometric Analysis of Chinese Fiscal Decentralization Competition and Local Government’s Environmental Expenditure: Based on Provincial Panel Data
		Li Zheng-sheng, Li Rui-lin, Wang Hui
		This paper focuses on the Chinese fiscal decentralization competition and local governments’ environmental expenditure aiming to figure out their strategic interaction model and formation mechanism, using spatial econometric analysis based on the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2012 in China. Empirical results are as follows: firstly, the behavior of local governments’ environmental expenditure has significantly strategic interaction; secondly, the behavior of local governments’ environmental expenditure produces significant competition effect, but the spillover effect is not significant; thirdly, Chinese fiscal decentralization is significantly out of the local government’s environmental expenditure.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 130-135 [Abstract] ( 1572 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 883KB] ( 1007 )

	136	Research on Inventory Problem under Trade Credit in Fuzzy Random Environment
		XU Wei-hua,ZHANG Yan
		According to three decision-making criterias, the inventory problem under trade credit in fuzzy random environment is analyzed in this paper, then a hybrid intelligent algorithm by integrating fuzzy random simulation, neural network and genetic algorithm is designed to solve these fuzzy random models. At last, the validity of these models and algorithm is proved by three examples. The empirical research shows: (1) These inventory models can offer decision makers scientific and feasible methods; (2) The proposed hybrid intelligent algorithm can solve uncertain programming models effectively; (3) The computational results show that longer trade credit, in general, may increase the replenishment period and reduce the supply chain’s total cost.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 136-141 [Abstract] ( 1636 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 759KB] ( 911 )

	142	The Dual Efficiency Loss of China’s Credit System Ownership Discrimination
		LI Yong
		For the imbalance of industrial structure in New-Normal period, by using the panel data from 1997 to 2011, this article analyzes the relationship between credit system ownership discrimination and industrial structure optimization, and the results find that the credit system ownership discrimination not only restricts the industrial structure rationalization, but also inhibits the industrial structure sophistication. As a result, the credit system ownership discrimination has dual efficiency loss. In addition, to control the endogenous problem, we reestimate the relationship between the two, and the result is also verified, which indicates that it would be beneficial for the industrial structural optimization when we eliminate the credit ownership discrimination and build an equal and reasonable financing environment.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 142-146 [Abstract] ( 1887 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 797KB] ( 1098 )

	160	“Investment” or “Environmental Protection”:How does Real Estate Tax Affect Local Government’s Behavior
		SONG Qi,TANG Yu-gang
		Taking Xiamen PX project as example, this paper analyzes the behavior logic of China’s urban government from the perspective of real estate revenue institution of local government. As residential development and trading finishes, the incentive of current real estate revenue institution on local government to improve environmental quality disappears, and this indicates that imposing property tax which is based on the stock value of real estate becomes one of the reform paths. To solve the environmental problem such as haze caused by the “development-oriented” behavior mode of local government, reasonable revenue system is needed to stimulate the government to implement effective environmental management in that the behavior of local governments is driven by their own financial interests.
		2017 Vol. 34 (1): 160-164 [Abstract] ( 1450 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 945KB] ( 3204 )

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