The Influence of Leading Economy and Emerging Economy on Commodity Prices——A MS-VAR Approach
JIA Rui1 ,QIAO Jia-jun2
1.School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081,China; 2.College of Environment and Planning, Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China
Abstract This paper uses MSIH(2)-VAR(3) model to study the influence of leading economies and emerging economies on the commodity price. Empirical results show that bulk commodity price responds more dramatically when the global economy is in bad situation. Leading economies’ liquidity has a significant influence on commodity price while the influence only improves a little when taking emerging economies into consideration. On the contrary, real economic factors of leading economy have no significant influence on the bulk commodity price, which improves a lot when taking emerging economies into consideration. In different economic times, different policies should be adopted according to different economic situations and target price. At the same time, the spillover effect of developed countries’ currency policy to bulk commodity market should be concerned.
2017, Vol. 34 
