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Economic Survey
2013 Vol.1 Issue.4
Published 2013-07-18
Orignal Article
1
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 1-9 [
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The Research on Growth Quality Difference of Chinas Regional Industry——Based on Convergence Analysis of Green Total Factor Productivity
LI Ling, TAO Feng, YANG Ya-pin
This paper researches the difference of regional industrial growth quality by calculating green total factor productivity about 30 provincial industrial sectors including energy consumption and pollution emissions with SBM directional distance function and Luenberger productivity index over the past ten years. The research results show that: The industrial growth quality about three areas of east, middle and western present gradient distribution trend with less obvious boundaries. Among the three areas, the industrial growth quality of eastern region present club convergence obviously, while the middle and west region show enlarge trend; The regional industrial growth quality about east, middle, western and the overall present conditional convergence, and the level of opening up and environmental regulation narrow the difference of quality about regional industrial growth.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 10-15 [
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3514
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The Influence of FDI on Chinese Institutional Changefrom Spatial Effect Aspect
ZHANG Wei
Using spatial econometric model and institutional index of different Chinese provinces, this paper analyzes the influence of FDI inflow on Chinese institutional change, which verified the existence of institutional spillover effect. The result shows:(1)FDI has a positive effect on institutional change in China. (2) The institutional spillover effect of FDI is existent, and the contribution rate of institutional spillover effect to institutional change is increasing year by year, and in developed provinces, the contribution rate growth of spatial institutional spillover effect is presenting expanding tendency. (3) Spatial institutional spillover effect is presenting regional aggregation feature in different provinces.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 16-20 [
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3576
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An Empirical Analysis about the Spillover Effects of R&D from the View of Industries and Regions——Based on the Interregional Input-output Model
WANG Qiao-hong, SHI An-na
The R&D activities play an important role on the regional economic growth with spillover effects among industries and regions. Based on the interregional input-output table of China in the year 2000, this paper researches the technological diffusion of R&D among industries and regions by computing the industry's technology multiplier. The results show that the industries with a low multiplier generate knowledge, whereas industries with a higher multiplier use knowledge. R&D mainly flows from technology producing industries to technology using industries. The industries' technological structure shares the similarities.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 21-26 [
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27
China’s State-owned Economic Productivity Evolution and Convergence Analysis——Based on the Metafrontier Malmquist Productivity Index
HE Bin, FAN Shuo
With metafrontier Malmquist productivity index the paper estimates the evolution of state-owned economic productivity of 31 areas in China, and tests the convergence of efficiency by the cross-sectional correlation panel unit root test method. The results show that the state-owned economy’s productivity has been growing significantly since 2000. This growth is mainly caused by technological progress, but the improvement of management level and the soft environment is not significant. Regionally, China's central region is better than the eastern region and the western region in both productivity growth rate and the speed of technological progress. From the convergence analysis, the state-owned economy’s productivity does not appear random convergence characteristics overall. From a regional perspective, only the eastern group exist club convergence, while the central and western group does not exist club convergence effect.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 27-32 [
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3184
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1961
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The Empirical Research on Total Factor Productivity Growth of Regional Rural Enterprises in China
SHEN Jian-min, DANG Yao-guo, WU Zhong-lun
Based on panel data of rural enterprises in China’s 30 provinces from 2002 to 2010, using the Malmquist productivity index method, the empirical analysis is done on the total factor productivity (TFP) growth source, differences and changes trend to China’s rural enterprises. The result shows that the TFP of China’s rural enterprises have grown at an average rate of -6.6% during the investigation, technology efficiency is the decision factor for TFP continuing to decline. The phenomenon of input congestion and resources waste exist seriously in different Regions. The TFP growth has significant regional difference among the eastern, central and western rural enterprises: Technological progress is the main power of TFP growth in eastern rural enterprises, technical efficiency degradation leads to TFP declining of central and western rural enterprises. The Sigma test shows that the technical efficiency exists divergence trend in general, the eastern region exists obvious divergent signs, the central and western region present trend of convergence. At present rural enterprises should pay great attention to the planning, management and regional coordinated development.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 33-38 [
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3355
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39
Dynamic Analysis on Output Contribution of Input Elements in Agricultural Innovation——Empirical Test Based on State Space Model
LI Xiang, MU Yue-ying
Based on the theory of the knowledge production function, by using the time series data of agricultural innovation from 1990 to 2009, the paper tests the smoothness of variables and the cointegration relationship by building state-space model with variable coefficients to describe contributions to agricultural innovation in the dynamic inputs effect. The results show: from 1990 to 2009 output elasticity of R&D expenditures and R&D staff keep opposite trends. R&D expenditures contribute to positive which since 1994 has been steadily rising, while the negative contribution of R&D staff from 1992 onwards has been declining until 1999 and gradually converged to a certain value and continues today. Elements scarcity of R&D expenditures and R&D staff, quality differences and specificity of development of agricultural science and technology led to different trends and characteristics of output contribution of input elements in agricultural innovation.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 39-43 [
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3284
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44
Highway and Off-farm Participation in Rural China
LUO Ren fu, ZHANG Lin R57xiu, WANG Xiao bing, QIAO Fang bin, SYLVIA Sean
This paper estimates the effect of highway accessibility on participation in off-farm work by using a unique panel data covering 100 villages, 682 households and more than 1600 workers in rural China with fixed effect model. It is found that-between 2004 and 2007 -a one kilometer decrease in the distance to the nearest highway increases off-farm labor participation in sample villages by approximately 0.1-0.15%; female and older laborers remain less likely to find off-farm work and that education and training remains a significant factor affecting entry into the off-farm labor market. It is suggested that increased highway accessibility has an important role in helping rural labor gain access to off-farm employment activities in rural China.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 44-48 [
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3776
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49
Empirical Analysis on the Urban-rural Gap Influencing Economic and Social Stability
LI Chang-an, LAI De-sheng
The enlargement of the Urban-rural gap is an important factor to lead to the unstable socioeconomic development.This paper measures the urban-rural income inequality affecting the total social stability by building an index system, containing three indicators with principal component analysis of 1990-2010 data. The research shows that it is obvious that the urban-rural income gap influence the stability with a significant effect on the stability of family and society, and no apparent influence on economic stability.Therefore, it is very necessary and urgent to maintain the economic and social long-term stability, speed up the reform of the income distribution system, prevent the increasing income gap.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 49-53 [
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54
Conduction of International Crude Oil Price Volatility on China’s Macroeconomic——Analysis Based on Structural VAR Model
LI Zhi-guo, GUO Jing-gang
this paper analyzes the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China’s macro-economic before and after the open of crude oil wholesale and retail market by structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model The results indicates that: the open of the crude oil wholesale and retail market accelerates the conduction of international crude oil price volatility on China’s macro-economy; the rise of world oil prices leads to a larger output decline with strong continuity effect. Tight monetary policy and interest rate raise reduce the pressure of inflation on certain level, but there are still exerting excessive risk.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 54-59 [
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3341
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60
Analysis on the “GATS+”Characteristics of Regional Service Trade Liberalization Development
ZHOU Nian-li, WANG Yin-ran, YU Hong-lin
This paper analyzes the commitments made on rule designing and structure building in service regional trade arrangements to improve regional trade arrangements comparing to multilateral trade arrangements. The characteristics and influence through the text of these agreements of five “GATS+” factors in the regional service trade liberalization mechanism as follows (1) establishing emergency safeguard mechanism of service trade; (2) more binding dispute settlement mechanism; (3) introducing strict and even aggressive transparency obligation; (4) setting up service trade government procurement clause; (5) strengthening trade policy review mechanism.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 60-65 [
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66
Outsourcing and Labor Productivity: on the Basis of Error Correction Model
CHEN Qing-ping, LIU Qing
With Input-output table this paper analyzes the outsourcing index by unit root test and cointegration test of outsourcing and per capital real output of 15 industries. It is concluded that outsourcing increases initially and reduces afterwards, and affects output negatively—the elasticity is -0.1 to -0.2 in short run and -0.3 to -0.5 in long run.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 66-70 [
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71
Research on the Impact of FDI in China on Bilateral Service Trade Flow——an Empirical Analysis Based on Service Trade Gravity Model
SHU Yan, LIN Long-xin
Based on the panel data of the bilateral service trade and FDI of China and the 19 OECD countries and regions between 2000 and 2008, the paper analyzes the service trade effects of FDI in China by extended gravity model . Empirical research results indicate that FDI in China promotes the development of service trade. But the stock of FDI promotes service trade greater than FDI flows. Furthermore, FDI promotes service trade imports greater than exports. The size of bilateral trade flow is positively related with each partner’s economic development and commodity trade, and the openness of host country’s service trade can promote export of service trade. But the relative distance constitutes the hindering factor to the bilateral trade.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 71-75 [
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76
A Dynamic Research on Commentary of Flight Delay and Evolutionary Trends
YANG Xiu-yun, WANG Quan-liang, HE Jian-bao
This paper summarizes and analyzes literature about flight delays from five different aspects. It points out the three evolution trend of flight delay research, namely the combination of different courses, the refine of calculations of the factors and costs to flight delays, improvement of the remedy and services to flight delays. It is a system problem to decrease the rate of flight delay, which needs coordinate not only the relationship among airports,airlines,passengers and air regulation, and also air transportation and other means of transportation.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 76-82 [
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The Impact of FDI on the Safety of China Commercial Service Industry——Based on the Simultaneous Equations Model
WANG Yao-zhong, CHEN Jie
With the 2005~2010 panel data of 30 provinces in China,the paper researches the impact of FDI on the safety of commercial service industry from domestic investment、output and employment in different region by simultaneous equations model . The results show that it produces crowding-out effect to domestic investment and employment,and produces direct crowding-in effect to domestic output in the country and the eastern region;it produces crowding-in effect to domestic investment and output,and produces crowding-out effect to employment in the central region;it produces crowding-out effect to domestic investment,and produces crowding-in effect to output and employment in the western region. In a word,foreign direct investment poses a threat to business services industry security of China to a certain extent,but the effect is different in different perspectives and different regions.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 83-87 [
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3342
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1874
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88
The Effect Mechanism Research of the Land Policy and Monetary Policy on House Prices-——Based on the VAR model
FAN Xin-ying, ZHANG Suo-di
This paper discusses the effect of land policy and monetary policy on housing price andanalyzes dynamic relationship between land price, the interest rates and the housing price by constructing state space model and estimating the parameter with Kalman filtering. It is concluded that the interaction of the land price, interest rates and housing price using the impulse response function and variance decomposition of the VAR model. Empirical results show that land price always has a positive influence on housing price while the influence of interest rate on housing price is not significant. The impact of housing price to land price will be displayed currently while the impact of land price to housing price will be showed with a period lag. Finally it puts forward the policy suggestions of establishing the system of local government’s finance and tax, reforming the interest rate decision mechanism, promoting the comprehensive reform real estate tax policy.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 88-93 [
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94
Service Quality Dimensions Measurement and Factor Analysisi in Banking Sector
WU Guan-zhi, ZHANG Hao, SHI Zhang-jian, HAN Ji-dong
Based on the former research on the perceived service quality, this article suggests a model composed of three dimensions and the path structures: technical quality, functional quality and service environment. In order to explore the affecting factors of dimensions of the perceived service quality, this research uses a sample data of the domestic banks to test and modify the items of the SERVQUAL scale. This research finds that in a high touching industry like bank, functional quality has a stronger effect on perceived service quality than technical quality and service environment, and the functional quality constitutes the main driving factors of perceived service quality.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 94-98 [
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99
The Dynamic Impacts of China’s Education Expansion on Employment Growth——Based on the VAR Model
LU Ping
Traditional economic theory believe that education play an important role on the economy and employment growth. The contribution of education to economic development is realized through the increased investment on the human capital, the greater ratio of education on human capital, the greater contribution on economic development, and thus the corresponding employment growth. This paper analyzes the interaction between China’s education expansions and employment rate by Ganger causality test and VAR model.The study reveals that education expense is the Ganger reason for employment growth rate; education expense has not only a significant positive temporary effect but also a significant lag effect on employment growth rate. But we cannot find the evidence for that employment will lead to the change of education expense. Finally, this study suggests that the government should increase education expense initiatively, improving the use efficiency of public education resources, promoting China’s human capital accumulation, so as to enhance the effective increase of the employment rate and the employment structure optimization.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 99-103 [
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104
Research on Supply Chain System Coordination Countermeasures Based on Nash Bargaining
YAO Shu-jun
By introducing price sensitivity and service sensitivity respectively,optimal service level and pricing strategy problems of the large retailer are investigated from two different situations: decentralized and centralized decision, so that supply chain coordination could be achieved. The Nash bargaining model has been used to establish profit sharing mechanism, obtain interval of bargaining power parameter variation that can realize supply chain perfect equilibrium, fair distribution of added value of supply chain total profit is realized, and effective measures of supply chain coordination are put forward.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 104-108 [
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The Impact of Workplace Ostracism on Employee Job Performance: ——Based on the Buffering Effect of Self-esteem
LI Rui
This paper analyzes the relationships of organization-based self-esteem, workplace ostracism and job performance by questionnaire survey of employees of enterprises in service sector with SPSS16.0. It shows that workplace ostracism has significant negative impact on the two dimensions of job performance, that is task performance and contextual performance, while organization-based esteem has significant positive impact on task performance and contextual performance; organization-based esteem plays a moderating role in the relationship between workplace ostracism and job performance. The results help to clarify the relationships of workplace ostracism, organization-based self-esteem and job performance, and also help managers to analyze the factors affecting the employees’ work performance, thus have important implications for the management practices.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 109-113 [
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114
Nature of Real Controller, Government Intervention and Corporate Libility
LI Bin, SU Kun
This paper examines the bank-lending discrimination between firms with different nature of real controller and the differences under different intervention extent. Results show: state owned firms can obtain credit resources more easily, so they have higher debt level. Relative to regions with larger government intervention, regions with lower government intervention, the government has lower motivation to intervene bank credit policies, so the differences of debt levels would be relatively small. This paper not only enriches the related studies on corporate liability, but also helps us deeply understand the institutional roots of the irrational corporate liability.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 114-118 [
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119
The Research of Model for Discretionary Accrual Reversal Cycle
ZOU Yan, WANG Yan-lin
Management’s opportunistic behavior is not only under the constraints of the total accumulated accrual, but also with the reversal of the speed. This paper estimates the reversal cycle by a reversal model of cumulative accruals with autocorrelation coefficient. Empirical test is made based on last decade samples of Shenzhen and Shanghai A-share. Results show that the average period of reversal cycle is four years. As expected the discretionary accruals have negative effect to the role in the following reversal cycle.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 119-122 [
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123
The Relationship between Foreign Exchange Reserves and Inflation in China——Empirical Analysis Based on Bounds Testing Technique
PAN Fang-hui
With the help of Lucas aggregate supply model, the paper empirically studies the relationship between foreign exchange reserves growth and inflation rate by sampling data from January 1997 to December 2010 with ARDL model. The empirical results show that foreign exchange reserves in long-term and short-term has significantly positive effects on inflation; Averagely,21.3% of inflation rate is caused by the foreign exchange reserves. Therefore we should strengthen the management of Chinese foreign exchange reserve to control the growth speed of foreign exchange reserves to reduce its impacts on inflation.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 123-127 [
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128
Economic Growth, Operating Efficiency and Inflation Tolerance Degree——An Empirical Study Based on China’s Economy since 1978
WU Hai-min, WANG Jian-jun
This paper analyzes the non linear relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as operating efficiency, by estimating the current inflation tolerance degree with TAR method and China’s macro economic data since 1978. The empirical results support an appropriate upgrade in China's inflation tolerance degree. In the short term, the maximum tolerance degree of inflation is 4.455% when taking into account the steady growth; however, in the medium or long term, it reduces to 3.741% when striving for change of economic development mode and improvement of economic operating efficiency. Thus, the research results provide a new reference for government to establish the endurable interval of inflation.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 128-133 [
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3087
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134
An Empirical Study on the Economic Growth Effects of the Public Expenditure Structure of China
ZHU Ying-chun
This paper empirically researches the economic growth effects of the public expenditure structure by analyzing the time series data from 1978 to 2010 with VAR, VEC. The results indicate: the public investment expenditures have positive effect on economic growth in a short run, but it will produce negative effect in a long run; the government administrative expenditures will be conducive to economic growth in the short run, but it will restrain economic growth in a long run; the public expenditures on culture, education, science and health have sustainable economic growth effects; the fiscal transfer payments have a positive effect on economic growth in a long run, but its contribution rate is lower. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the public investment expenditure structure, improve the efficiency of government administrative expenditures, and increase the expenditures on culture, education, science, health and fiscal transfer payments to promote economic sustainable growth.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 134-138 [
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139
The Model of Optimal Government Size in China: a Comparative and Empirical Study
LUO Zhi, YANG Guan-qiong
There are three types of model on estimating optimal government size. They are the model based on “Barro rule”, the model included quadratic term and the threshold regression. It is inconsistent that the optimal government size based on these models. This paper compares estimator of optimal government size on the same dataset using these models. The result shows that the model in the form of per capita based on the “Barro rule” and threshold regression model are in line with China’s condition and the optimal government size is approximately 11%.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 139-144 [
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3108
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145
Does Equilibrium Relate to Financial Development?——The Measurement of RMB Exchange Rate Based on Adjusted Model of BEER
SHEN Jun
With theoretical evidences of financial non-neutral and BEER model, together with the synthetic index analysis, the Paper measures the level and misalignment of RMB equilibrium exchange rate from 1994 to 2010 by using co-integration test and Hodrick-Prescott filter. The empirical study indicates that financial development effects RMB exchange rate to a larger extent and in long run. The degree of misalignment of RMB exchange rate is not serious; the figure is below 5%. From another point, the conclusion of “the Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation” put forward by Cheung is supported.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 145-149 [
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150
An Analysis on Stock Market Volatility with Heterogeneous Traders
JIA Hua-rui
This paper studies the statistical characteristics of stock market return and measures the market volatility with heterogeneous traders in the stock market by analyzing the relationship of the exceed volatility of stock markets and the irrational traders’ behavior with the participation of irrational and rational traders model. The result shows that the model with multi-lagged periods return interprets the formation process of stock market return better. Further discussion is made on the boundary of stock market volatility of rational expectation equiliubrium and irrational expectation equiliubrium.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 150-155 [
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156
A Research on the Relationship between the Entry of Foreign Banks and the Efficiency of China’s Banks——Based on the Comprehensive Analysis of DEA and Panel Data
ZHANG Zhao-long
Based on the estimation of TEC efficiency for domestic commercial banks with DEA method, the paper analyzes the effects of the entry of foreign banks on the efficiency of domestic commercial banks by building a pane model with the data of China’s banks between 2004 and 2010 to. It is found that the entry of foreign banks is significantly positively related to the efficiency of domestic commercial banks; the macro-economy facts have a positively significant effect on domestic commercial banks.
2013 Vol. 1 (4): 156-160 [
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2930
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