True or False: The Proposition that Human Capital Is Conducive to China’s Future Economic Growth——An Analysis of Threshold Effect Based on Provincial Panel Data, 1997—2013
NI Chao
Center of Quality and Benefit, China Aero-Polytechnology Establishment,Beijing 100028, China
Abstract：
Using data of China’s thirty-one provinces from 1997 to 2013,this paper goes beyond the hypothesis of the linear correlation between human capital and economic growth and constructs a threshold regression model in an effort to test the threshold effect of human capital on economic growth. The empirical result shows that education human capital has significant double threshold effect on China’s economic growth with the two threshold values respectively being 8.53 and 9.47, and that there are significant differences among provinces.Physical capital, labors and health human capital have positive roles on economic growth. The empirical results requires that the government should attach great importance to developing human capital, to enhancing its enthusiasm, to improving it, to carrying human capital beyond the second threshold, and to maximizing its effectiveness. Regional difference also demands government attention, who should take a wholesome perspective in developing and issuing public policies that are suitable for local realities towards the ultimate goal of realizing economic growth of high quality.
NI Chao.True or False: The Proposition that Human Capital Is Conducive to China’s Future Economic Growth——An Analysis of Threshold Effect Based on Provincial Panel Data, 1997—2013[J] Economic Survey, 2017,V34(6): 129-134
2017 
