人口结构变迁对房地产库存的影响研究——基于SYS-GMM估计方法的区域差异分析

摘要利用2004—2016年我国省际面板数据,建立动态面板模型,考量人口结构变迁对房地产库存的影响。研究结果表明相对人口社会结构和人口空间结构,人口自然结构对房地产库存的影响更为显著。具体表现在,少年抚养比和老年抚养比对房地产库存有显著的促进作用;平均家庭户规模对房地产库存的影响有显著的区域差异性,全国和东部地区表现为抑制作用,中西部地区则为促进作用;男女性别比、高等教育比和人口城镇化率对房地产库存的影响不显著。此外,房地产库存延续性强,滞后项对房地产库存具有显著的促进作用,预期项对房地产库存影响不显著。经济发展水平对房地产库存的影响显著,且存在区域差异,经济开放度对房地产库存的影响不显著。

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关键词：人口结构变迁房地产库存 SYS-GMM估计区域差异

Abstract： Using the Chinese provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016, this paper constructs a dynamic panel model to investigate the impact of demographic changes on real estate inventory. The results show that compared with social and spatial demographic structures, natural demographic structure has a more significant influence on real estate inventory. Specifically, the ratio of youth dependency and elderly dependency play a significant promoting role in real estate inventory. The effect of the average household size on the real estate inventory shows significant regional differences, which is inhibiting in the whole country and the eastern region but promoting in the central and western regions. There is no evident influence on real estate inventory from gender ratio, higher education ratio and the rate of population urbanization. In addition, the real estate inventory has a strong continuity, and the lagged variable has significant influence on it while the expected item shows no obvious impact. The economic development has a strong impact on real estate inventory and shows regional differences, while the impact of economic openness is not significant.

Keywords： Demographic Structure Changes Real Estate Inventory System GMM Estimation Regional Differences

收稿日期 2018-08-08; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:湖南省自然科学基金项目(2017JJ3218);湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(17YBA308)

作者简介: 傅贻忙(1982— ),男,湖南汝城人,博士研究生,主要从事房地产经济学研究;周建军(1974— ),男,湖南桃江人,博士(后),教授,博士生导师,主要从事房地产经济学研究;周颖(1995— ),女,湖南永兴人,硕士研究生,主要从事房地产金融研究。

引用本文:

傅贻忙,周建军,周颖.人口结构变迁对房地产库存的影响研究——基于SYS-GMM估计方法的区域差异分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2019,2: 87-94

FU Yi-mang, ZHOU Jian-jun, ZHOU Ying.The Impact of Demographic Changes on Real Estate Inventory ——An Analysis of Regional Differences Based on SYS-GMM Estimation[J] Economic Survey, 2019,V36(2): 87-94

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2019/V36/I2/87