中国人口结构、养老保险与居民消费

摘要

养老保险制度是社会保障体系中的重要手段,具有平滑收入和平衡福利水平的作用,同时也会引起居民消费决策的变动,而人口老龄化的加剧则对养老保险制度产生冲击,进一步影响居民消费。研究人口结构与养老保险对居民消费的影响,对于我国经济扩大内需以及养老保险制度改革具有重要意义。首先构建世代交替模型,对人口结构与养老保险发展水平对居民消费支出水平的影响进行理论分析;随后,选取我国2002—2015年省际数据进行实证研究。结果表明:我国养老保险发展水平的提高对城镇居民消费水平具有明显的促进作用,而人口结构的变化会对两者之间关系产生进一步的影响。

	Service

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	Email Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	蒋彧
	全梦贞

关键词：养老保险人口结构居民消费 OLG模型面板数据

Abstract：

As a primary means of social security system, pension can smooth income and balance welfare level as well as prompt changes in residents’ consumption decisions. In addition, the aging of population also has an impact on pension system, which further affects residents’ consumption. The study of the effects of population structure and pension on the consumption of residents is of great significance to the expansion of domestic demand and the reform of pension system. Upon constructing an OLG model, this paper first carries out a theoretical analysis of the effects of population structure and the development of pension on residents’ consumption, and then conducts an empirical study using the provincial data between 2002 and 2015. Results show that the increase in pension has significantly positive effects on the consumption of urban residents and this relationship is further affected by the changes in population structure.

Keywords： Pension Population Structure Residents&rsquo Consumption OLG Model Panel Data

收稿日期 2017-08-03; 接受日期 2018-02-07;

基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目(71301072);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2014T70494)

作者简介: 蒋彧(1980-),男,江苏常州人,博士,副教授,主要从事金融市场、金融计量学研究;全梦贞(1993-),女,江西抚州人,硕士研究生,主要从事金融学研究。

引用本文:

蒋彧, 全梦贞.中国人口结构、养老保险与居民消费[J]. 经济经纬, 2018,1: 131-137

JIANG Yu, QUAN Meng-zhen.China’s Population Structure, Pension and Residents’ Consumption[J] Economic Survey, 2018,V35(1): 131-137

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2018/V35/I1/131

白重恩.2012.中国养老保险缴费对消费和储蓄的影响[J].中国社会科学(8):48-71.
蔡兴.2015.预期寿命、养老保险发展与中国居民消费[J].经济评论(6):81-91.
陈池波,张攀峰.2012.新型社会保障、收入类型与农村居民消费——基于横截面数据的经验分析[J].经济管理(8):175-182.
樊纲,王小鲁.2004.消费条件模型和各地区消费条件指数[J].经济研究(5):13-21.
方匡南,章紫艺.2013.社会保障对城乡家庭消费的影响研究[J].统计研究(3):51-58.
何立新,封进,佐藤宏.2008.养老保险改革对家庭储蓄率的影响:中国的经验证据[J]. 经济研究(10):117-130.
李时宇,冯俊新.2014.城乡居民社会养老保险制度的经济效应——基于多阶段世代交叠模型的模拟分析[J].经济评论(3):3-15.
李雪增,朱崇实.2011.养老保险能否有效降低家庭储蓄:基于中国省级动态面板数据的实证研究[J].厦门大学学报(3):24-31.
孟庆平.2008.我国城镇居民储蓄对社会养老保险的公共价值分析[J].财贸经济(2):58-62.
石阳,王满仓.2010.现收现付制养老保险对储蓄的影响——基于中国面板数据的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究(3):96-106.
王小龙.2013.养老双轨制、家庭异质性与城镇居民消费不足[J].金融研究(8):109-122.
杨继军,张二震.2013.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学(8):47-66.
岳爱,杨矗,常芳,等.2013.新型农村社会养老保险对家庭日常费用支出的影响[J].管理世界(8):101-108.
余立人.2012.延长退休年龄能提高社会养老保险基金的支付能力吗？[J].南方经济(6):74-84.
ANDO A, MODIGLIANI F. 1963. The “life cycle” hypothesis of saving: aggregate implications and tests [J]. American Economic Review, 53(1): 55-84.
AKIRA Y. 2001. Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security [J]. Journal of Population Economics, 14(4): 635-640.
AYDEDE H Y. 2007. Saving and social security wealth: a case of Turkey[Z]. SSRN, Networks Financial Institute, Working Paper.
BLAKE D. 2004. The impact of wealth on consumption and retirement behavior in the UK [J]. Applied Financial Economics, 14(14): 555-576.
BLOOM D E, CANNING D, MANSFIELD R. 2007. Demographic change, social security systems and savings [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(1): 92-114.
CAGAN P. 1965. The effect of pension plans on aggregate saving: evidence from a sample survey [M]. New York: Nation Bureau of Economic Research.
FELDSTEIN M. 1974. Social security, induced retirement, and aggregate capital accumulation [J]. Journal of Political Economy, 82(5): 905-926.
JUAN A, CARLOS U. 2008. Security reform with uninsurable income risk and endogenous borrowing constraints [J]. Review of Economics Dynamics, 11(1): 83-103.
KALEMLI-OZCAN S D, WEIL N. 2002. Mortality change,the uncertainty effect and retirement [Z]. NBER Working Paper.
MELVIN S, UNAYAMA T. 2011. The impact of retirement on household consumption in Japan [J]. Journal of the Japanese & International Economies, 26(1): 62-83.
PARKER J A. 1999. The reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes [J]. American Economic Review, 89(4): 959-973.
SHESHINSKI E. 2006. Note on longevity and aggregate savings [J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics,108(2): 353-356.