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    经济经纬 2024 Issue (6) :58-70
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    农村基本养老保险与农民工回流决策——基于劳动时间与安全性的解释
丛胜美1,2, 罗必良1
1.华南农业大学 国家农业制度与发展研究院,广东 广州 510642;
2.河南财经政法大学 农业农村发展学院,河南 郑州 450046
    The Influence of Rural Basic Pension Insurance on the Migration Decisions of Rural Migrant Workers: An Analysis Based on Labor Time and Safety Factors
    CONG Shengmei1,2, LUO Biliang1
1. National School of Agricultural Institution and Development, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China;
2. School of Agriculture and Rural Development, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450046, China
摘要
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摘要 利用2016年、2018年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,检验参加农村基本养老保险对外出农民工回流决策的影响。研究发现:第一,参加农村基本养老保险显著促进了外出农民工回流,从地点来看,县城农民工回流务工、县城以外农民工回流务农现象均显著;利用工具变量法和倾向得分匹配法(PSM)进行估计也支持上述结论。第二,基于“工资—闲暇”模型、马斯洛需求层次理论等的分析表明,对工作时间、工作安全的诉求是农村基本养老保险影响外出农民工回流的重要机制。第三,异质性分析表明,家庭收入水平是农村基本养老保险促进农民工回流的重要调节因素。第四,进一步分析表明,农村基本养老保险的“非携带性”是参保促进农民工回流的中间机制的判断缺乏理论和经验支持。研究结论为缓解农村基本养老保险的农民工回流效应提供了经验证据与政策依据。
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丛胜美
罗必良
关键词： 农村基本养老保险   农民工回流   工作时间   工作安全   家庭收入     
Abstract： The study utilizes data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) in 2016 and 2018 to examine the impact of participation in the rural basic pension insurance on the return migration decisions of rural migrant workers. The are following findings: Firstly, participating in rural basic pension insurance significantly promotes the return of migrant workers. From the perspective of location, the return of migrant workers to work in counties and the return of migrant workers from outside counties to work in farming are significant. The above conclusions are also supported by using the instrumental variable method and the propensity score matching method (PSM) for estimation; Secondly, analyses based on the “ wage-leisure ” model and Maslow’s Hierarchy of needs theory show that demands for working hours and work safety are important mechanisms for rural basic pension insurance to affect the return of migrant workers; Thirdly, heterogeneity analysis indicates that family income level is an important moderating factor in the rural basic pension insurance’s promotion of the return migration of rural migrant workers; Fourthly, further analysis demonstrates that the judgment regarding the “ non-portability ” of rural basic pension insurance as an intermediate mechanism for promoting the return migration of insured migrant workers lacks theoretical and empirical support. This study provides empirical evidence and policy implications for alleviating the return of rural migrant workers triggered by rural basic pension insurance.
Keywords： Rural Basic Pension Insurance   Migrant Workers’ Return   Working Hours   Job Security   Household Income     
收稿日期 2024-06-24; 接受日期 ;
基金资助:河南省软科学研究项目(242400411081);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71933004)
通讯作者 罗必良(1962— ),男,湖北监利人,教授,博士生导师,长江学者,主要从事农业经济与制度经济研究。   
作者简介: 丛胜美(1989— ),女,山东曲阜人,华南农业大学博士后,河南财经政法大学副教授,主要从事农业经济与保险制度研究。
引用本文:   
丛胜美, 罗必良.农村基本养老保险与农民工回流决策——基于劳动时间与安全性的解释[J].  经济经纬, 2024,6: 58-70
CONG Shengmei, LUO Biliang.The Influence of Rural Basic Pension Insurance on the Migration Decisions of Rural Migrant Workers: An Analysis Based on Labor Time and Safety Factors[J]  Economic Survey, 2024,V41(6): 58-70
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