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Economic Survey

	2022 Vol.39 Issue.4 Published 2022-07-10

	3	Is the Development of Polycentric Integration of Urban Agglomeration Conducive to Reducing Haze Pollution?
		LIU Xiuyan, LIANG Changyi, LI Songlin
		Taking 21 urban agglomerations in China as the research object, this paper first measures the polycentric spatial structure of urban agglomerations from the three aspects of scale, location and accessibility, and then uses the two-way fixed effect model to identify the impact of polycentric spatial structure of urban agglomerations on haze pollution. Thirdly, the index system is constructed from the three dimensions of function, institution and culture to measure the integration level of urban agglomeration. Finally, the regulatory effect of urban agglomeration integration level on the impact of polycentric spatial structure on haze pollution is examined in this paper, that is, the heterogeneous impact of polycentric spatial structure on haze pollution under different urban agglomeration integration levels is analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) The polycentric spatial structure of urban agglomeration can obviously alleviate haze pollution; (2) The integration of urban agglomeration has a positive promoting effect on the mitigation of haze pollution by polycentric spatial structure. And from the aspects of functional, institutional and cultural integration, the conclusion is still valid. This means that by strengthening the construction of polycentric system of urban agglomeration, we can alleviate the haze pollution caused by excessive concentration of economic activities in a single central city, improve the level of integration of urban agglomerationand further promote the emission reduction effect of polycentric spatial structure.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 3-12 [Abstract] ( 686 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1270KB] ( 795 )

	13	Misallocation of Regional Land Resources, Technological Innovation and Haze Pollution
		CHEN Gongjun
		The misallocation behavior of local governments on urban construction land may affect regional haze pollution. Based on the data of 216 cities in China from 2011 to 2018, this paper empirically examines the direct effect, indirect effect and threshold effect of mismatched haze pollution of regional land resources under spatial correlation by constructing panel spatial econometric model and dynamic panel threshold model. The study finds that the low quality of attracting investment and the increase of traffic caused by the misallocation of land resources of the local government will directly aggravate the local haze pollution, while the haze pollution caused by the misallocation of land resources of the neighboring government will significantly aggravate the local haze pollution through space spillover. And the misallocation of land resources of the local government will also indirectly aggravate the local haze pollution by restraining technological innovation, but the impact of the land resource misallocation of neighboring governments on local haze pollution through technological innovation channels is not significant. In addition, land resource misallocation also has an obvious technological innovation threshold effect on haze pollution. When regional technological innovation exceeds a certain level, the impact of land resource misallocation on haze pollution will be effectively mitigated. The results of the study provide useful implications for local governments to solve the dilemma of “Seeking Development with Land” and haze governance.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 13-21 [Abstract] ( 791 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1229KB] ( 1139 )

	22	Regional Integration and Green Development of Urban Agglomerations: Quasi-natural Experiment Based on Yangtze River Delta Expansion
		LI Ge, GAO Da, LYU Shigong
		Based on the data of 212 prefecture-level cities in China from 1997 to 2018, this paper takes the expansion of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta as a natural experiment of regional integration, and empirically tests the impact of regional integration on green development by difference in difference model (DID).The empirical results are as follows: (1) The expansion of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta has significantly improved the green development level of the overall urban agglomeration, and a series of robustness tests have confirmed the reliability of this conclusion; (2) Mechanism analysis shows that the expansion of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration integrates the previously independent cities into an urban agglomeration economy, and promotes the green development of urban agglomeration by strengthening the economic ties between cities, promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and upgrading the level of technological innovation; (3) In addition, In cities with higher level of economic development, higher level of technological innovation and higher proportion of secondary industry, regional integration plays a greater role in promoting green development.Therefore, in the process of promoting regional integration, China should strengthen inter-regional coordination and cooperation in the field of ecological and environmental governance to jointly achieve green development.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 22-31 [Abstract] ( 887 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1374KB] ( 1201 )

	32	Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Government Training on Rural Migrant Workers’ Self-employment:An Empirical Study Based on Extended Probit Model
		ZHANG Shiwei, ZHANG Junkai, WANG Jie
		Based on the data of the special survey on social integration of Migrants Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey in 2013 and 2014, this paper applies the extended model to analyze the impact of government training on the self-employment of rural migrant workers. The empirical results are as follows: Government training helps to promote the self-employment of migrant workers, and can significantly increase the probability of self-employment of migrant workers by 14.2%; Compared with employer self-employment, government training mainly helps to promote self-employment of rural migrant workers; Government training can not only directly promote rural migrant workers to become self-employed workers by improving their skilled human capital, but also indirectly promote rural migrant workers to become employers by increasing their local social capital; The promotion effect of government training on theself-employment of rural migrant workers is universal, especially for the female group; With the improvement of the level of regional marketization, the role of government training in promoting self-employment of migrant workers is becoming more and more obvious; Government training is an effective way to improve the performance of migrant workers’ self-employment market, and it is especially effective to improve the market performance of self-employed migrant workers with low professional level and reputation. Therefore, government departments should continue to vigorously develop vocational skills training programs for migrant workers to promote migrant workers’ multi-channel, multi-form and high-quality employment, so as to help achieve the policy goal of “Stable Employment” and “Employment Protection”.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 32-40 [Abstract] ( 555 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1223KB] ( 962 )

	41	The Influence of Human Capital on Farmers’ Behavior of Quitting Rural Residential Land
		SUN Pengfei, ZHANG Renhui, ZHAO Kai, ZHOU Shengqiang
		Based on the micro data of 1047 households in Jinzhai County, Anhui Province and Qionglai City, Sichuan Province, this paper uses Probit model, Iv-probit model, intermediary effect model and cross section threshold model to empirically analyze the influence, action path, heterogeneity and threshold effect of human capital on farmers’ homestead quitting behavior. The result shows that human capital has a significant positive impact on farmers’ behavior of quitting rural residential land, and the conclusion is still valid after using the method of instrumental variables to eliminate the endogenous problem. The mechanism analysis based on the mediation effect model indicates that human capital can promote farmers to quit rural residential land through ways of increasing farmers’ income, enhancing farmers’ awareness of safeguarding their rights and improving their cognition levels of homestead withdrawal policy. And the influence of human capital on homestead withdrawal behavior of farmers in different locations is different. First of all, it has the strongest positive influence on the withdrawal behavior of farmers in the suburbs, followed by the outer suburbs, and the weakest influence on the remote villages. The analysis of cross-sectional threshold model shows that the influence of human capital on farmers’ homestead withdrawal behavior has dynamic transformation characteristics under different levels of human capital accumulation. After human capital crosses the threshold (In this paper, it is 0.258), its impact on homestead withdrawal is enhanced. Based on the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as increasing rural human capital investment, paying attention to rural human capital accumulation, adopting diversified and multi-combination homestead exit policy and so on.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 41-50 [Abstract] ( 727 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1218KB] ( 2807 )

	51	Technical Standards,Innovation Driven and Upgrading of China’s Manufacturing Export Complexity
		LI Dan, DONG Qin
		The competition of technical standards has increasingly become the core content of the international market competition of manufacturing industry. This paper matches the International Classification of Technical Standards (ICS) and the Industrial Classification of China’s National economy (2002), obtains the stock data of technical standards in China’s manufacturing industry segments from 2000 to 2013, and examines the impact of technical standards on the upgrading of China’s manufacturing export complexity. The results are as follows: (1)Technical standards have a significant positive impact on the upgrading of export complexity of China’s manufacturing industry, which is still valid under various robustness tests; (2)Technological innovation is an important way for technological standards to influence the upgrading of manufacturing export complexity; (3)Technical standards have a more significant impact on the upgrading of export complexity of technology-intensive manufacturing, heavy manufacturing and high-tech-intensive manufacturing.Compared with the mandatory technical standards, the recommended technical standards have a more significant impact on the upgrading of manufacturing export complexity. The conclusions provide some theoretical and policy implications for the further implementation of China’s standardization strategy and the further improvement of the technical standard system.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 51-61 [Abstract] ( 674 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1221KB] ( 1089 )

	62	The Evolution of Regional FTA Network Structure, the Third-party Effects and Its Influence on China
		WU Zongning, CAI Hongbo, WANG Qiang
		The global free trade agreement structure is developing towards the trend of complexity, multi-polarization and networking, so that the analysis methods from unilateral or bilateral perspectives are not enough to explain the changes of regional FTA pattern at this stage. On the basis of the current research, this paper constructs the regional FTA network with the member countries of RCEP as the main body, analyzes the evolution of the network structure and the changes of the trade status of important economies, reveals the formation mechanism of the network through the quadratic assignment regression method (QAP regression), and uses the dynamic modeling method to simulate China’s accession to the CPTPP in different periods, thus discussing the evolution law of the regional FTA network and China’s trade status. The results are as follows: (1) The overall density of the FTA network is not high, but it is getting closer and closer. The United States’ strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific region has brought about structural changes in the regional FTA relationship; (2) The results of network centrality ranking of countries (regions) show that TPP weakens the regional status and influence of China and ASEAN, and widens the gap between ASEAN members, while RCEP alleviates the negative effects of TPP to some extent; (3) The change of regional FTA network structure promotes the upgrading of the third-party effect (triangular structure). At the same time, the difference in the number of triangular structure between bilateral countries (regions) will promote the signing of FTA; (4) The dynamic model is used to simulate the process of China’s entry into CPTPP, and the results show that China’s accession to CPTPP in the future can enhance its status in the regional FTA network.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 62-73 [Abstract] ( 669 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1579KB] ( 1574 )

	74	A Study on the Influence of Industrial Policy on Labor Income Share in the Context of Economic Downturn
		LIU Changgeng, WANG Yuhang, WANG Yuxi
		Increasing the labor income share is an important foundation for solidly promoting common prosperity. In the context of economic downturn, the question of whether and how industrial policy can affect labor income deserves attention. On the basis of theoretically expounding the impact mechanism of industrial policy on labor income share and based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2011, this paper takes the publication of China’s top ten industries in 2009 as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses the DID model to test the influence of industrial policy on labor income share in the context of economic downturn. The results show that industrial policy can improve the availability and affordability of corporate financing, ease its liquidity constraints, expand the scale of employment, and increase the share of enterprise labor income. The heterogeneity test results show that the ten major industrial revitalization plans have a greater impact on introverted enterprises and enterprises in areas with a strong degree of government intervention, but have little impact on enterprises of different ownership. The paper not only identifies the relationship and influence mechanism between industrial revitalization planning and labor income share, but also provides empirical evidence for re-examining the positive role of ten major industrial revitalization plans.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 74-85 [Abstract] ( 644 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1282KB] ( 751 )

	86	Industrial Collaborative Agglomeration, Local Government Competition and Green Development of Manufacturing Industry
		SONG Xiaoling, LI Jinye
		As knowledge and technology intensive industries, high-tech industries and producer services are important forces to promote the green development of manufacturing industry. Their collaborative agglomeration is an important carrier to realize the integration and interactive development. Based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019, this paper systematically investigates the impact and internal mechanism of the collaborative agglomeration of high-tech industries and producer services on the green development of manufacturing industry. The results indicate that the impact of collaborative agglomeration of high-tech industries and producer services on the green development efficiency of manufacturing industry shows an inverted U-shaped nonlinear characteristic of “rising first and then falling”. At present, industrial collaborative agglomeration plays a significant role in promoting the green development of manufacturing industry. And there is also an inverted U-shaped feature between industrial collaborative agglomeration and manufacturing green development in the eastern region, and industrial collaborative agglomeration in the central and western regions plays a significant role in promoting the green development of manufacturing industry. In addition, industrial collaborative agglomeration indirectly promotes the green development of manufacturing industry by promoting the upgrading of manufacturing structure and accelerating technological innovation. Government economic competition has a negative regulatory effect on industrial coordination and agglomeration and the green development of manufacturing industry, while innovation competition has a positive regulatory effect. In a word, the conclusion of has important reference significance for improving the quality of industrial collaborative agglomeration and promoting the green and sustainable development of the manufacturing industry.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 86-96 [Abstract] ( 760 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1242KB] ( 1332 )

	97	Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Demonstration Base Policy and High-quality Development of Enterprises: From the Perspective of Enterprise Technological Innovation
		YAO Hailin, HUANG Wei
		The policy of entrepreneurship and innovation demonstration base (EIDB) is an important measure to implement the innovation-driven development strategy and promote the high-quality development of enterprises, but its effect has not been evaluated effectively. By constructing a multi-time-point double difference model, this paper examines the effect of mass entrepreneurship and innovation demonstration base policy on the high-quality development of enterprises. The results show that, from the perspective of the technological innovation of enterprises, the EIDB policy promotes the high-quality development of enterprises in terms of total quantity, but in terms of the innovation structure, the policy leads to the low-end of the overall innovation structure of enterprises. The analysis of internal mechanism shows that this policy only solves the resource barriers to the high-quality development of enterprises through innovative resource supplement mechanisms such as funds, talents and platforms, but does not break through the barriers of scientific and technological achievements transformation and transaction costs. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the incentive effect of the EIDB policy on high-quality development of enterprises is more obvious in state-owned enterprises and enterprises in central and eastern regions. Further research and analysis confirm that the policy has a spillover effect on the innovation of high-quality development of enterprises.The study provides empirical evidence for the impact of the demonstration base policy on the high-quality development of enterprises, reveals the weak links of the current policy and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 97-106 [Abstract] ( 649 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1731KB] ( 716 )

	107	A Study on the Influence of IPO Over-funding on Goodwill of Enterprise M&A
		HOU Deshuai, WANG Yao, DONG Manru
		The risk of goodwill aggravates the instability of China’s capital market. Although it has attracted much attention, it mainly focuses on its economic consequences rather than the exploration of its causes. Therefore, based on the background of IPO over-raising and resource mismatch in China’s capital market, this paper tries to explore the causes of goodwill risk from the early stage of listed trading. The results show that IPO over-funding aggravates the formation of corporate goodwill bubble, and after endogenous test and robustness test, the research conclusion remains unchanged. The impact of IPO over-funding on corporate goodwill bubble mainly occurs in the first year after IPO over-funding, but not in the year of IPO over-funding and the second and third years after IPO over-funding. And in the areas where the management is overconfident, financing constraint is small and the degree of marketization is low, the impact of IPO over-funding on M & A goodwill will be more significant. Further study finds that companies are more likely to have goodwill impairment in the third year after IPO over-funding. The conclusion of this paper shows that IPO over-funding reduces the efficiency of resource allocation and intensifies the risk of goodwill impairment under premium M&A, and there is an obvious problem of overdoing. This paper provides a new perspective for exploring the causes of goodwill risk in China’s capital market and is of great significance for optimizing supervision and risk control of goodwill.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 107-117 [Abstract] ( 778 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1263KB] ( 1028 )

	118	Industrial Policy, Analyst Coverage and Corporate Earnings Management
		HU Shiliang, XU Gaoyan, DONG Wenhao, HUANG Yongchun
		High quality accounting information is an important source and basis for macro-economic development and micro enterprise decision-making. Taking the national industrial policy with Chinese characteristics as the starting point and using Chinese A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2019 as the research samples, this paper empirically tests the influence mechanism of industrial policy on corporate earnings management and the moderating effect of analyst coverage. The results show that industrial policy can reduce corporate financing constraints, improve corporate investment efficiency, increase corporate market expectations and attract the news media’s coverage, which can inhibit corporate earnings management. Meanwhile, compared with accrual earnings management, industrial policy has a stronger inhibitory effect on real earnings management. The moderating effect test finds that analyst coverage can speed up the effective and accurate transmission of industrial policy information, reduce the motivation of earnings management, and thus strengthen the inhibitory effect of industrial policy on corporate earnings management. The conclusion provides new empirical evidence for revealing the incentive effect of industrial policy on corporate accounting information quality and the information amplifier function of securities analysts. At the same time, it can be used for reference to optimize the formulation and implementation of industrial policies, guide analysts’ information transmission and value discovery.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 118-127 [Abstract] ( 663 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1220KB] ( 1008 )

	128	A Study on the Effectiveness of Innovation Subsidy Policy in Promoting Technological Innovation: From the Perspective of Financing Constraints
		HE Yanlin, SHAN Zhicheng, ZHONG Teng
		Taking Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 as samples, based on the perspective of financing constraints, this paper combines the resource welfare effect and resource curse effect of innovation subsidy policy to evaluate the effectiveness of innovation subsidy policy on technological innovation. The empirical results show that the innovation subsidy policy not only has the resource welfare effect, but also has the resource curse effect, which will lead to rent-seeking behavior and over investment. But on the whole, the innovation subsidy policy is effective. Its resource welfare effect is stronger than that of the resource curse effect. It can promote enterprise technological innovation by alleviating financing constraints. Further heterogeneity research on its effectiveness from the perspective of financing constraints shows that the higher the level of financing constraints, the higher the effectiveness of innovation subsidy policy. This is because financing constraints can restrain the rent-seeking behavior and over-investment caused by the resource curse effect of innovation subsidy policy, and promote enterprises to apply innovation subsidy to technological innovation more effectively. The conclusion of the study provides important empirical evidence and ideas for restraining the resource curse effect of innovation subsidy policy in order to improve its effectiveness.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 128-139 [Abstract] ( 739 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1241KB] ( 1252 )

	140	Digital Finance and Enterprise R&D Investment: Structural Differences, Channel Testing and Effect Identification under Marketization
		CHE Dexin, WU Fei, ZHAO Danni
		Based on the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2011 to 2018, this paper empirically tests the impact of digital finance on R&D investment and channel mechanism. The empirical results show that digital finance can help drive enterprises to improve the intensity of R&D investment, and the driving effect of innovation investment is more significant for non-state-owned enterprises, high-tech enterprises and small-scale enterprises. As a result, it is found that digital finance can effectively correct the attribute mismatch and industry mismatch of traditional finance. Mechanism analysis indicates that the development of digital finance can optimize the industrial structure and financial structure, and provide exogenous power for enterprises’ R&D investment. And digital finance can effectively improve the information content of stock prices and overcome the difficulties of financing and expensive financing. In areas with poor marketization, the development of digital finance can bring more significant driving effect to the R&D investment of enterprises, showing a more prominent function of “making up for the market weakness”. The conclusions provide reliable experience and policy inspiration for optimizing the development of digital finance and boosting the momentum of enterprise innovation.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 140-149 [Abstract] ( 721 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1436KB] ( 869 )

	150	Financial Agglomeration, Green Technology Innovation and Green Economic Efficiency
		FENG Rui
		Based on the panel data of 234 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2007 to 2018, this paper empirically studies the relationship among financial agglomeration, green technology innovation and green economic efficiency. The results show that financial agglomeration and green technology innovation are beneficial to improve the efficiency of green economy, and financial agglomeration affects the efficiency of green economy through the intermediary effect of green technology innovation. Further study shows that the regulatory effect of green technology innovation is significantly different in different degree of environmental pollution, intensity of environmental regulation and geographical location. Moreover, the regulatory role of green technology innovation in high environmental pollution areas is stronger, the regulatory role of green technology innovation in high environmental regulation areas is weaker, and the regulatory role of green technology innovation in coastal areas is stronger. Therefore, improving the degree of financial agglomeration in different regions of our country and giving full play to the regulatory role of financial agglomeration and green technological innovation are conducive to the development of green economy in our country.
		2022 Vol. 39 (4): 150-160 [Abstract] ( 792 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1463KB] ( 1227 )

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