The Evolution of Regional FTA Network Structure, the Third-party Effects and Its Influence on China
WU Zongning1, CAI Hongbo2,3, WANG Qiang4
1. School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Business School, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3. Shanghai Yangtze River Delta Collaborative Innovation Center for Financial Services in Science and Innovation Industry, Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai 201620, China; 4. Graduate School, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Abstract The global free trade agreement structure is developing towards the trend of complexity, multi-polarization and networking, so that the analysis methods from unilateral or bilateral perspectives are not enough to explain the changes of regional FTA pattern at this stage. On the basis of the current research, this paper constructs the regional FTA network with the member countries of RCEP as the main body, analyzes the evolution of the network structure and the changes of the trade status of important economies, reveals the formation mechanism of the network through the quadratic assignment regression method (QAP regression), and uses the dynamic modeling method to simulate China’s accession to the CPTPP in different periods, thus discussing the evolution law of the regional FTA network and China’s trade status. The results are as follows: (1) The overall density of the FTA network is not high, but it is getting closer and closer. The United States’ strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific region has brought about structural changes in the regional FTA relationship; (2) The results of network centrality ranking of countries (regions) show that TPP weakens the regional status and influence of China and ASEAN, and widens the gap between ASEAN members, while RCEP alleviates the negative effects of TPP to some extent; (3) The change of regional FTA network structure promotes the upgrading of the third-party effect (triangular structure). At the same time, the difference in the number of triangular structure between bilateral countries (regions) will promote the signing of FTA; (4) The dynamic model is used to simulate the process of China’s entry into CPTPP, and the results show that China’s accession to CPTPP in the future can enhance its status in the regional FTA network.
WU Zongning,CAI Hongbo,WANG Qiang. The Evolution of Regional FTA Network Structure, the Third-party Effects and Its Influence on China. Economic Survey, 2022, 39(4): 062.
2022, Vol. 39 
