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Economic Survey
 
2020 Vol.37 Issue.3
Published 2020-05-10

1 The Influence of Environmental Regulation on the Quality of Regional Economic Development—A Comparison Based on HDI Partitions
LIU Yaobin, XIONG Yao
Environmental regulation mainly affects the quality of economic development through technological innovation, industrial structure and FDI, and there are obvious differences in the performance among different regions. This paper systematically investigates the mechanism of environmental regulation on the quality of economic development, and takes panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2016 as the research object to compare the impact of environmental regulation on the quality of regional economic development based on HDI partitions. Firstly, the results show that there are differences between environmental regulation intensity and economic development quality in different HDI regions. Regions with high HDI also have relatively high environmental regulation intensity and economic development quality. Secondly, regions whose environmental regulations are higher than the national average HDI have positive effects on the quality of economic development mainly through the compensation effect of technological innovation. Thirdly, regions whose environmental regulations are lower than the national average HDI have significant negative effects on the quality of economic development mainly through FDI technology spillover effect, but their pollution shelter effects are not significant. Therefore, it is necessary to grasp the strength of environmental regulation in accordance with local conditions to promote the quality of regional economic development.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 1-10 [Abstract] ( 949 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1295KB] ( 1652 )
11 Spatial and Temporal Impact of Industrial Agglomeration on Ecological Efficiency in Bohai Economic Rim—A Study Based on Environmental Regulation
XU Chenglong, ZHUANG Guiyang
Environmental regulation, industrial agglomeration and ecological efficiency in Bohai Economic Rim are explored in this thesis based on the panel data of 44 cities from 2009 to 2016, DEA model and differential GMM estimation method of dynamic panel. The results indicate that: ① Environmental regulation intensity and ecological efficiency in Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province showed an upward trend while that in Hebei Province was in a downward trend. The location entropy in most cities of Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province had obvious downward trend. The location entropy in Shandong province was not obvious, and in most cities showed a trend of fluctuation. ② The lag coefficient of ecological efficiency in Bohai Economic Rim was significantly positive. The impact of environmental regulation on ecological efficiency was positively correlated, and the impact of industrial agglomeration on ecological efficiency was negatively correlated. The interaction between industrial agglomeration and environmental regulation was positively related to the ecological efficiency. ③ The impact of economic development level, population size and foreign investment level on ecological efficiency was significantly positive, and the impact of human capital on ecological efficiency was not significant. Therefore, environmental regulation and industrial agglomeration were crucial to the improvement of ecological efficiency, and economic development, population size and foreign investment level were also important factors to improve ecological efficiency.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 11-19 [Abstract] ( 1019 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 5468KB] ( 1184 )
20 The Relationships of Industrial Division, Environmental Pollution and Regional Economic Development—A Study Based on Heavy Chemical Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
DONG Xinling, ZHANG Yueyou
In the context of the serious “heavy chemical industry surrounding the river” in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, in order to balance environmental restoration with economic development, this paper draws on the input-output analysis ideas, by using the 2005-2016 panel data of the economic belt, so to construct the spatial Durbin model to analyze the dual impact of the industrial division of the heavy chemical industry on regional environmental pollution and economic development. The results show that the division of labor in the middle reaches of the economic belt is continuously close to the downstream; the heavy chemical industry division of labor, environmental pollution and economic development in the economic belt are spatially dependent; the reduction of the level of heavy chemical division in the middle and upper reaches promote the decline of regional pollution levels. The “contamination transfer” does not occur with the transfer of heavy chemical industry in the economic belt; the weakening of the division of labor in the regional heavy chemical industry will lead to an increase in the proportion of the economy in the economic belt.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 20-28 [Abstract] ( 939 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 4122KB] ( 1445 )
29 The Relationship of Institutional Arrangement, Urbanization and Environmental Pollution
LI Jiajia
According to the comprehensive theoretical analysis framework of new economic geography and economic growth model, and by using spatial econometric and threshold effect model, this paper analyzes the relationship of institutional arrangement, urbanization and environmental pollution, which is on the basis of Chinese Provincial Panel Data from 1998 to 2015. The empirical results show that there are inverted N-shaped curves in the National, Eastern and Western, and there is U-shaped curve in the Central. The estimation coefficient of interaction term is significantly negative of property rights institution, market institution, economic opening and the environment institution. The distribution pattern is significantly positive, which makes the vertices advanced of inverted N and U curves. There are significant interval effects on the impact of urbanization on environmental pollution under different institutional arrangements. When the institutional arrangement is low, the improvement of urbanization will aggravate the environmental pollution. When the institutional arrangements are gradually improved, the intensification of urbanization on environmental pollution will gradually weaken. At the same time, labor, capital, environmental investment and technical level all influence the environmental pollution in different aspects. Therefore, it is an effective way to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment through the improvement and innovation of the institutional and the promotion of regional environmental cooperation.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 29-36 [Abstract] ( 1087 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1228KB] ( 1382 )
37 Does Urbanization Improve Agricultural Mechanization? —Panel Evidence from 31 Provinces in China
GAO Yanlei, ZHANG Zhengyan, WANG Zhigang
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2016, this paper explores the mechanism of urbanization affecting agricultural mechanization by using the mediation effect model. The results show that, from the overall effect, urbanization has a significant positive impact on agricultural mechanization; among them, agricultural labor force and farmers’ income have played a significant positive intermediary effect, and the former is far greater than the latter; and from the perspective of different economies, urbanization in the eastern region promotes the agricultural mechanization. The mechanism shows a double intermediary effect between agricultural labor and farmers’ income, while in the central and western regions it only shows the positive intermediary effect of agricultural labor. The robust test of POLS method, random effect model and IV method supports the above conclusion. Finally, in view of the above conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as guiding the transfer of agricultural labor, improving the subsidy standard for agricultural machinery, and establishing the socialized service system of agricultural machinery.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 37-44 [Abstract] ( 1049 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1423KB] ( 1533 )
45 A Research on Spillover Effects of Agricultural Agglomeration on Agricultural Green Development Efficiency
XUE Lei, SHEN Yun, XU Chenghong
In this paper, SBM-Undesirable model is used to measure the green development efficiency of agriculture in 30 provinces and cities from 2004 to 2015, and the geographic distance matrix and economic geography nested matrix are constructed. The mechanism of agricultural agglomeration affecting the green development efficiency of agriculture is analyzed. The spatial spillover effect of agricultural agglomeration on the green development efficiency of agriculture is empirically tested based on SAR spatial econometric model. The results show that: (1) China’s agricultural green development efficiency has been greatly improved between 2004 and 2015, with obvious regional heterogeneity, showing a declining gradient distribution in the eastern, western, northeastern and central regions. (2) From the extreme difference, the gap between the east, the middle, the west and the northeast is widening, but the level of adjacent provinces and municipalities is narrowing. (3) The efficiency of agricultural green development has positive spatial externalities, but shows a downward trend. Agricultural agglomeration has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on agricultural green efficiency, and the spillover effect is about four times of the direct effect. (4) Agricultural agglomeration has a positive spatial spillover effect on agricultural green efficiency. (5) There is a significant positive spatial spillover effect of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural green efficiency in Northeast and Central China, and the spillover effect is about 0.8 and 1.3 times of the direct effect, respectively, but there is a positive direct effect in West China and the spillover effect is not significant; the eastern region is not significant.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 45-53 [Abstract] ( 947 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2729KB] ( 1356 )
54 The Influential Factors of Endowment Effect in Rural Land Transfer —Based on the Data from Two Counties in Jiangsu Province
NAN Guangyao, ZHU Peixin
The lagging development of rural land transference market is not just decided by property rights institution factors, but more importantly there are psychogenic factors of farmers as well. From the perspective of behavioral economics, this paper analyzes the main factors which influence endowment effect in rural land transfer, with an aim to have a deeper understanding of the current obstacles which hinder rural land transfer, to provide new perspective and reference for policy system. Using Logistics model, and survey data collected from Sheyang County and Haian County in Jiangsu Province, the research shows that: 1)The existence of endowment effect in rural land transfer is mainly affected by farmers’ cognition of farmland ownership, substitutability and uncertainties factors. 2) Compared with male, female farmers are more likely to have endowment effect in rural land transfer; The older farmers are more likely to appear the endowment effect in farmland transfer; The higher level of education and increase of household non-agricultural income ratio will weaken the possibility of farmer’s endowment effect in the land transfer. In policy making, the government should take fully consideration of the relevant factors that affect the endowment effect in rural land transfer, so to weaken the loss aversion of famers through the relevant policies, and further promote rural land transfer market growth.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 54-61 [Abstract] ( 972 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1264KB] ( 1211 )
62 Did the Countervailing Measures Impact China’s Export? —An Empirical Evidence from Product Level Data
LI Shijie, TU Bingjing, CAI Zuguo
Based on the export product data from 2004 to 2016, by calculating the intensive margin and expansion margin of each type of product exported during this period, using four countervailing agent variables to measure the countervailing situation encountered by China’s export products, the countervailing to China’s exports a regression analysis of the impact of trade intensive margins is conducted to empirically test the theoretical hypothesis that China’s export prosperity and countervailing coexist. The study found that Chinese export companies often take increasing export value as the first response strategy to stabilize the market share of export destinations and form a countervailing effect on China’s export trade. But this strategy has not really promoted the more important margin of expansion for China’s export trade. Therefore, there is no such mechanism as the so-called trade barriers to promote the transformation and upgrading of Chinese export enterprises.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 62-70 [Abstract] ( 938 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1211KB] ( 1543 )
71 Does Firm’s Export Behavior Lead to More Green Investment? —An Empirical Analysis Based on the Green Investment Data of A-Share Listed Companies
MA Yanyan, YU Maomao
Under the background of globalization, and using the green investment data of A-share listed companies during the period of 2013-2017, the article analyzes the effect of firms’ export behavior on its own green investment. The results show that: (1) The proportion of export income has a positive effect on firms’ green investment. (2) For the enterprises with higher capital intensity and higher degree of industrial competition, exportation plays a more significant role in increasing green investment. Furthermore, green credit can promote green investment behavior of exporters. (3) The proportion of firm’s export income has U-shaped influence on its green investment as TFP increases. The paper provides relevant empirical evidence for improving the international reputation and realizing clean production of China’s export enterprises.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 71-80 [Abstract] ( 983 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1227KB] ( 928 )
81 Structural Characteristics of Competitive Substitution in China’s High Speed Transport Market —An Empirical Analysis Based on China’s Bullet Train and Air Transport Data
YANG Xiuyun, ZHAO Meng, WANG Quanliang
Based on China’s current situation, this paper constructs a competition model between bullet train and air transport, and explores the alternative relationship between them in high-speed transport market, by using the operation data of airports and bullet trains in 161 cities during 2003-2016 to do empirical research with continuous time DID method. Although both air transport and bullet trains continue growing, the results show that the operation of bullet trains reduces the air transport volume in cities nationwide, and the indirect substitution impact of bullet trains on the air cargo is stronger. This effect is the strongest in western region, followed by the central region, then the eastern region where is the weakest. The better bullet train stations a city construct, the more bullet trains will affect air transport. Therefore, for promoting the long-term and healthy development of high-speed transport market, our government should consider them as a whole when making construction plans, and guide them to cooperate with each other, in order to use financial resources more efficiently.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 81-91 [Abstract] ( 879 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1537KB] ( 1311 )
92 A Research on the Impact of Privatization of State-owned Enterprises on Social Welfare Effect in Overcapacity Industry
WANG Shaoguo, DENG Yang
Effectively reducing overcapacity is one of the main contents of China’s current economic work. State-owned enterprises in overcapacity industries are also facing the key tasks of deepening the reform of mixed ownership. However, regarding the development of state-owned enterprises in the context of de-capacity, the specific impact of the social welfare effect is lacking in literature research. Based on the theory of mixed oligopoly, this paper constructs a theoretical model of the effects of mixed ownership reform represented by the privatization of state-owned enterprises on the output and social welfare effects of different types of enterprises under the background of excess capacity regulation. The panel data of six industries with overcapacity characteristics from 2008 to 2016 were selected for empirical analysis. The results show that the improvement of the degree of privatization of state-owned enterprises makes the output level of state-owned enterprises lower, while the output level of private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises increase, and the level of social welfare a downward trend. The increase of industrial subsidies makes the level of social welfare increase first and then decrease. The downward trend of “U-shaped”; the increase of production restriction policy has a “U-shaped” trend of decreasing the social welfare effect of the industry with lower privatization level, and the social welfare effect of the medium-sized privatization industry is decreasing. Based on the conclusions, this paper proposes policy recommendations that related governments should further promote the reform of state-owned enterprises in a fully competitive industry, transfer subsidy policies to research and development link, use capital to guide output control, and build a mutually beneficial and open foreign market.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 92-99 [Abstract] ( 801 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1216KB] ( 1323 )
100 Bonded Zones, Export Processing Zones and Industrial Structure Upgrading —An Empirical Research Based on DID Method
DAI Pingping, LIU Rongchun, YE Xiuqun
As the space carrier of open industrial policy, bonded zones (BZs) and the export processing zones (EPZs) play an important role in leading industrial structure upgrading. This paper uses DID method to empirically test the impact of BZs and EPZs on industrial structure upgrading by using the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016. The study finds that BZs and EPZs promote industrial structure rationalization, but inhibit industrial structure advancement; The regional and dynamic differences in the effects of BZs and EPZs on industrial structure upgrading are significant; BZs promote industrial structure rationalization by inhibiting the development of processing trade; EPZs inhibit industrial structure rationalization by promoting the development of processing trade; BZs and EPZs promote industrial structure upgrading by improving FDI quality.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 100-107 [Abstract] ( 962 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1207KB] ( 1315 )
108 Does the Disclosure of Critical Audit Matters (CAMs) Alter the Auditors’ Audit Responsibility Awareness? —A Research from the Perspective of Audit Pricing
PAN Keqin
This paper using a quasi-experimental design about Chinese listed firms which carry out the No. 1504 audit standards for Chinese certified public accountants for the first time in 2017 as the research opportunity, using the audit price and its change as the substitute variable for audit responsibility, and using audit opinions as the substitute variable for clients’ risk, probes into the relationship between the change of audit responsibility and the new audit standard’s implementation. Firstly, using the DID (difference-in-difference) method, it finds that the client’s audit opinion is more rigid, then the audit price and its growth is higher after enforcing the new audit standards, but the low-risk clients’ audit price is reduced. Secondly, if the audit opinion for year 2017 becomes more rigid than the audit opinion for year 2016, then the amount of audit price and its growth is bigger, however, the audit risk changes in 2016 compared with 2015 did not lead to significant changes in audit pricing. It states that, the first implementation of the CAMs standard strengthens the auditor’s awareness of audit responsibility for high-risk clients, and the auditor makes risk compensation in advance through risk premium adjustment. Meanwhile, the disclosure of CAMs further reduces the audit responsibility for low-risk clients.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 108-116 [Abstract] ( 1096 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1226KB] ( 2120 )
117 Redundant Employment and Innovation of State-owned Enterprises
WANG Jingyu, ZHANG Wenke, LI Huicong
Taking the state-owned listed companies from 2008 to 2018 as samples, this paper emphatically studies the relationship between redundancy and enterprise innovation in state-owned enterprises. The research finds that the influence of redundancy on the innovation of state-owned enterprises has an interval effect, that is, moderate redundancy helps to improve the R&D investment of state-owned enterprises in a certain range, but with the continuous increase of the burden of redundancy in state-owned enterprises, the pressure mechanism of redundancy weakens, thus restraining the R&D investment of state-owned enterprises. Further research shows that the degree of product market competition has a negative moderating effect on the correlation between redundancy and R&D investment. In addition, the correlation between redundancy and R&D investment in state-owned enterprises is more significant in commercial state-owned enterprises than in public-welfare state-owned enterprises, and the robustness test is carried out to ensure the robustness of the results. His external environment variables, such as year, industry and so on, have no significant impact on the results.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 117-124 [Abstract] ( 1146 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1204KB] ( 1359 )
125 The Dynamic Impact of Entrepreneurial Bricolage on Resource Acquisition of New Enterprises: Based on the Intermediary Effect of Entrepreneurship Learning
OU Shaohua, ZHA Junjun
The role of entrepreneurial bricolage in solving the resource dilemma of new enterprises is increasingly valued by researchers. From the perspective of improving new enterprise resource acquisition, the author constructs a conceptual model of the relationship between entrepreneurial bricolage, entrepreneurial learning and resource acquisition, discusses the dynamic impact of entrepreneurial bricolage on new enterprise resource acquisition, and conducts empirical analysis based on 293 valid data collected from questionnaire survey. The results show that: in the initial stage and early growth stage, entrepreneurial bricolage has a positive and significant impact on the operation resources that affect the survival of new enterprises and the acquisition of knowledge resources that affect the development of new enterprises; experience learning, cognitive learning and practical learning play a part of intermediary role in the relationship between entrepreneurial bricolage and resource acquisition. At the same time, entrepreneurial bricolage has a positive impact on entrepreneurial learning. As a result, it improves the research on the antecedent variables of entrepreneurial resource acquisition in the field of entrepreneurship, and enriches the entrepreneurial bricolage theory to a certain extent.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 125-133 [Abstract] ( 825 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1273KB] ( 1177 )
134 The Influence of Population Structure on Housing Price and Its Regional Differences
ZHOU Jianjun, LIU Kuibing, ZHENG Jiao, Fu Yimang
Population is the basic driving force of national development. Clarifying the internal mechanism of population structure affecting housing prices helps to scientifically analyze housing prices and accurately predict housing prices. Based on this, this paper selects the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016, and uses the panel data model to empirically test the impact of population structure on housing prices from the national and regional levels. The study finds that, at the national level, the ratio of child rearing is opposite to that of house price changes, but the old-age dependency ratio is positively correlated with house prices, and the higher the proportion of higher education, the higher the housing price. In addition, the urbanization rate has promoted the rise of housing prices in a certain period of time. The impact of the floating population on housing prices is very significant. The outflow of population will curb the rise in housing prices, while the population inflow will increase housing prices. The phenomenon of “immigration” makes Chinese real estate face the control of housing prices and the double pressure of going to stock. From a regional perspective, the impact of demographic structural factors on housing prices in different regions shows significant differences. In the more economically developed eastern regions, demographic structural factors will significantly affect housing prices, while in the central and western regions where economic development is relatively slow, the impact of demographic factors on housing prices is not significant, and the rise in housing prices is more due to the increase in personal income brought about by the cyclical economic development.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 134-141 [Abstract] ( 1384 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1201KB] ( 1539 )
142 The Impact of House Price Fluctuation on the Economic Efficiency of Finance Serve the Real Economy —A Spatial Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data
DU Shuyun, TIAN Shen
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2001 to 2017 in China and a spatial econometric model, using the DEA-Malmquist index to estimate the efficiency of finance serve the real economy, the regional differential impact and spatial effect of house price fluctuation on the efficiency of finance serve the real economy was analyzed. The results show that there is a significant positive spatial correlation between the efficiency of finance serve the real economy in China, and the spatial cluster effect is significant. The fluctuation of house price has significant negative effects on the economic efficiency of financial service entities, and the same between in adjacent provinces. The regional studies show that house price fluctuation has a significant negative impact on the economic efficiency of financial services entities in the central and eastern regions. Therefore, more attention should be paid on stabilizing housing prices continually, reducing the tax dependence degree of real estate industry gradually, and enhancing the financial support for the R&D in real economy, so to improve the financial service efficiency in real economy
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 142-150 [Abstract] ( 1047 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1648KB] ( 1214 )
151 The Capital Accumulation Effect of Environmental Comparative Advantage in Competitive Market
CAI Ling, WANG Xin
The research, under the condition of competitive market mechanism, based on comparative advantage economy, establishes the influence mechanism of environmental comparative advantage on capital accumulation, then takes the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China in 2004-2016 as a sample and dynamic space model to test the internal mechanism of the environmental comparative advantage to the capital accumulation. The results show that: in the market competition environment, the environmental comparative advantage has far-reaching and long-term influence on the capital accumulation, and the capital income and financial investment income have a strong negative effect on the capital accumulation brought by the regional environmental comparative advantage; Technological progress can effectively offset the capital investment income, and the negative effect of real income and comparative advantage of financial market.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 151-158 [Abstract] ( 832 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1302KB] ( 914 )
159 Financial Risk Transmission, International Capital Flow and Optimal Tobin Rate Selection —Based on DSGE Model of the Two Countries
WANG Yufang
Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method, this paper built a two-country model of international capital flows and empirically analyzed the impact of international capital flows on the macro-economy of various countries in the context of the emergence of systemic financial risks. The research results show that: the impact of international capital flows is asymmetric, which is stronger in the original capital inflow countries than in the original capital outflow countries. International capital flows can lead to short-term “overshoot” of national consumption and asset prices, and make it impossible for countries to recover the ratio of debt to GDP and the growth rate of capital accumulation to the level before the financial crisis. If the tobin tax is levied on international capital flows according to the level of macroeconomic equilibrium and stability, the optimal tax rate is set between 0.25% and 1.7%, which can optimize the adjustment effect of macro-prudential policies. At present, with the development of the internationalization of the RMB, the yuan’s cross-border flow has a negative impact on China’s macroscopic economy, in order to further enrich the macro-prudential policy tool quantity, enhance the capacity of systemic financial risk prevention, China should introduce tobin tax in due course, and control international capital from the two aspects of capital inflow and outflow, so as to reduce the scale and frequency of international capital flow as far as possible, and minimize its impact on macro economy.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 159-166 [Abstract] ( 901 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1931KB] ( 859 )
167 Donation, Anti-Corruption Policy and Bank Loan for Private Enterprise
ZHANG Huiqin
This paper studies the influence of donations on financing ability of listed private companies between 2009 and 2017, based on the background of anti-corruption since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (18th National Congress). The study found that donations of private enterprises influenced the bank’s credit decision-making and helped them to obtain more bank loans before the 18th National Congress. But the strengthened anti-corruption efforts had changed the intervention of external factors such as donation to the allocation of credit funds, and correspondingly weakened the incentive of private enterprises to seek rent through charitable donation since the 18th National Congress. The author conducted a group test based on different marketization level of the company’s registered place to study the regional differences in credit funds allocation. The study showed that ability which charitable donations intervened in credit allocation was more obvious in the weak marketization areas before the 18th National Congress. However, the influence of charitable donation on credit allocation has been weakened with strengthened anti-corruption efforts since the 18th National Congress and the high marketization regions had been impacted more seriously. Study showed that the perfect market which can provide more diversified financing channels for private enterprises had reduced the incentive on bank rent-seeking in the high marketization areas; The strengthened anti-corruption efforts had restrained the incentive for seeking rent and promoted fair competition in the area of credit fund distribution for private listed companies since the 18th National Congress.
2020 Vol. 37 (3): 167-176 [Abstract] ( 909 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1219KB] ( 748 )
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