Financial Risk Transmission, International Capital Flow and Optimal Tobin Rate Selection —Based on DSGE Model of the Two Countries
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Abstract Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method, this paper built a two-country model of international capital flows and empirically analyzed the impact of international capital flows on the macro-economy of various countries in the context of the emergence of systemic financial risks. The research results show that: the impact of international capital flows is asymmetric, which is stronger in the original capital inflow countries than in the original capital outflow countries. International capital flows can lead to short-term “overshoot” of national consumption and asset prices, and make it impossible for countries to recover the ratio of debt to GDP and the growth rate of capital accumulation to the level before the financial crisis. If the tobin tax is levied on international capital flows according to the level of macroeconomic equilibrium and stability, the optimal tax rate is set between 0.25% and 1.7%, which can optimize the adjustment effect of macro-prudential policies. At present, with the development of the internationalization of the RMB, the yuan’s cross-border flow has a negative impact on China’s macroscopic economy, in order to further enrich the macro-prudential policy tool quantity, enhance the capacity of systemic financial risk prevention, China should introduce tobin tax in due course, and control international capital from the two aspects of capital inflow and outflow, so as to reduce the scale and frequency of international capital flow as far as possible, and minimize its impact on macro economy.
WANG Yufang. Financial Risk Transmission, International Capital Flow and Optimal Tobin Rate Selection —Based on DSGE Model of the Two Countries. Economic Survey, 2020, 37(3): 0159.
2020, Vol. 37 
