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Economic Survey

	2019 Vol.36 Issue.4 Published 2019-07-10

	1	Can Urbanization Improve Environmental Performance?
		LAN Yi-sheng, XU Xiao-feng
		In the past empirical research, there are certain controversy over the impact of urbanization on environmental performance. In order to explore the root causes of this controversy and to provide theoretical support and policy basis for green and healthy urbanization path, this paper deeply explores the impact mechanism of urbanization on environmental performance and summarizes two major impact paths. First, urbanization has a positive impact on environmental performance by reducing energy intensity. Second, urbanization has a positive impact on environmental performance by promoting green innovation. Taking as undesired outputs the sulfur dioxide emissions (SO₂), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and solid waste emissions, the paper then further calculates environmental performance using the SBM model. China’s provincial penal data is then adopted along with the mediation effect model in an empirical test of these two theoretical mechanisms, which confirms their existence. In view of these empirical results and China’s reality, in order to improve China’s environmental performance, this paper believes that the green performance improvement strategy should be implemented according to local conditions, and it should be insisted that the urbanization of both people and land be implemented at the same time.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 1-8 [Abstract] ( 994 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 912KB] ( 862 )

	9	The Influence of Population Urbanization and Urban-Rural Development Gap on Education Urbanization
		YE Lei, ZENG Gang, WANG Yan
		Adopting provincial penal data model, this paper analyzes the impacts of population urbanization and urban-rural development gaps on education urbanization. The results show that the progress of population urbanization positively affects the advancement of education urbanization. The income gap between rural and urban residents has an inverted U-shape relationship to the education urbanization, which is promoted by the widening gaps in educational expenditure and education quality between urban and rural areas. Among the controlled variables, regional economic development, cancellation and merging of rural schools and transportation infrastructure all show positive correlations with education urbanization. And the impact of cancellation and merging of rural schools verifies the significant promoting effect on education urbanization from China’s large-scale adjustment of rural schools since the new century.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 9-15 [Abstract] ( 1114 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 845KB] ( 1026 )

	16	Decision-making Mechanism of Migrant Worker Households’ Consumption and Saving Behavior in the Process of Urbanization——From the Perspective of Urban Belonging
		LI Rui-qin, XIAO Zhong-yi
		Based on the micro data of Chinese Social Survey in 2015, this study starts from the perspective of urban belonging and focuses on the decision-making mechanism of migrant worker households’ consumption and saving behavior in the process of urbanization. The research finds that improving the sense of belonging of migrant workers in cities can increase their household consumption expenditures while reducing savings, but there are significant differences in the decision-making of consumption and savings among migrant workers in term of gender, age and education.Furthermore, the mechanism research finds that consumption uncertainty could significantly interact with sense of belonging and play an important role in household savings decisions. Therefore, this uncertainty should be greatly reduced in order to release the consumption potential of migrant workers in cities through the improvement of their sense of belonging in the process of urbanization.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 16-23 [Abstract] ( 924 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1047KB] ( 829 )

	24	Multidimensional Poverty Dynamics and Its Influencing Factors in Underdeveloped Agricultural Areas——A Study Based on the Data of Fixed Observation Points in Rural Henan
		LUO Qing, YANG Hui-min, LI Xiao-jian, GAO Geng-he
		Over the past 10 years, China’s poverty measured by rural income has been greatly reduced. However, rural poverty is multidimensional and dynamic. Based on the A-F multidimensional poverty index and its decomposition indexes, this paper uses the data of rural fixed observation points in Henan Province between 2004 and 2014 and analyzes the changes in the level, intensity and composition of multidimensional poverty, and its influencing factors. The results show that from 2004 to 2014, the multidimensional poverty in rural areas of Henan Province has decreased significantly, but the extent to which it is reduced and reduction mode show significant differences in time and geographical environment. From 2004 to 2014, the incidence of multidimensional poverty is significantly higher than that of income poverty. With the gradual elimination of absolute income poverty, multidimensional poverty will be the future focus and difficulty of the poverty alleviation with precision strategy. With the exception of housing, the incidences of poverty in other multidimensional poverty indicators have decreased significantly from 2004 to 2014. Among them, the three indicators of education, fuel and sanitation contribute most to the overall multidimensional poverty. The multidimensional poverty is not only related to the characteristics of household heads, family social capital and per capita income, but also related to the geographical environment of families and the development of village economy.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 24-31 [Abstract] ( 1052 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1004KB] ( 758 )

	32	A Study of Influencing Factors in Grain Brokers’ Internet Adoption Behavior——An Investigation of Grain Brokers in Henan, Shandong and Shaanxi Provinces
		XIAO Kai-hong
		Based on the micro data of 368 grain brokers from Henan, Shandong and Shaanxi provinces, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of individual characteristics, information demand characteristics, market behavior characteristics and Internet readiness on grain brokers’ Internet adoption behavior by using the binary logistic regression model. The results show that young people born in post-80s with higher education are pioneers of Internet adoption among grain brokers. Grain brokers’ Internet adoption behavior is under significant positive impact from capital scale of grain purchase and the degree of information dependence, but under a significant negative impact from the frequency of grain purchase and sale. In addition, some practical problems such as the relatively old age, low education, weak willingness in paying and the lack of Internet operation skills in domestic grain brokers also significantly inhibit the grain brokers’ Internet adoption.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 32-39 [Abstract] ( 982 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1018KB] ( 889 )

	40	Are Aged Farmers Willing to Renounce the Rights of Contract and Management of the Land?——Based on the Survey of Farmers in Henan Province
		HAN Zhan-bing
		Based on 2107 questionnaires of farmer households in Henan Province, this paper empirically tests the willingness of aged farmers to renounce land contract right and management right and the influencing factors by using the ordered probit model. Results show that at present, the willingness of the aged farmers to withdraw from the land contract right is relatively low compared to high willingness of withdrawing from the management right. The degree of affluence in economic development has a profound impact on the willingness of aged farmers to renounce the land contract right and management right. A variety of factors show a positive effect on the willingness of renouncement of the two rights, including age, whether family members have emigrated to cities for settlement and employment, whether the major labor in the family is a part-time farmer, whether the proportion of non-agricultural income is higher than that of agricultural income, the expectation of sufficient compensation income for renouncement, the expectation of a relatively complete policy guarantee of retirement and medical care after renouncement, whether the land is subject to abandonment or perfunctory farming, and the farming stress of arduous labor. Some other factors have a negative impact on the willingness to renounce the two rights, including the satisfaction of agricultural production subsidies, the existence of post renouncement livelihood and employment pressure, the expectation of future policy changes after renouncement, and the strong attachment to the land. In the choice of policies, the government should take the “three rights division” reform of land as an opportunity to establish the rural protection fund to raise the compensation income for renouncement on land and the livelihood insurance level of the aged farmers, and in the meantime encourage the aged farmers to disengage from the agricultural production through the new mode of land trust.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 40-47 [Abstract] ( 921 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1240KB] ( 920 )

	48	An Empirical Study on the Impact of International Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation on China’s Export Trade
		QU Ru-xiao, LIU Xia, YU Xiao-yu
		This paper empirically tests the impact of international cooperation in scientific and technological innovation on China’s export trade using data of sub-sectors in 27 manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2016. It is found that international scientific and technological innovation cooperation significantly promotes the growth of China’s manufacturing export trade, and this promotion is mainly manifested through extensive margin. In the sub-sample regression, the cooperation in invention patent and product design patent has a strong promotion effect on the extensive margin, but a weak influence on the intensive margin. In addition, foreign ownership of domestic invention patents, domestic ownership of foreign invention patents and patents with foreign co-inventors can all significantly increase the intensive margin and extensive margin of China’s manufacturing exports, among which the effect on the extensive margin is stronger than that on the intensive margin.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 48-55 [Abstract] ( 1022 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 794KB] ( 1098 )

	56	Research on the Impact of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the Export of High-tech Products——From the Perspective of Three Margins
		LIU Jun-ting, QU Li-na, TONG Ji-ying
		Based on the panel data of China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in 31 countries (regions) and export of high-tech products from 2003 to 2016, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of China’s OFDI on the varieties, quantities and prices of high-tech products exports from the perspective of three margins, namely extensive margin, quantity margin and price margin. The study shows that OFDI development significantly promotes China’s high-tech products exports in general. The impact of China’s OFDI on varieties of high-tech products is negative, that on quantities is not significant and that on export price is positive. On this basis, the paper proposes policy recommendations for improving the export of high-tech products from the aspects of increasing OFDI, actively promoting the negotiation of free trade agreements, changing OFDI strategies and enhancing the ability of independent innovation.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 56-62 [Abstract] ( 973 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 858KB] ( 807 )

	63	Research on the Time-varying Influence of Capital Account Liberalization on China’s Financial Market
		DAI Shu-geng, YU Bo
		This paper constructs a general equilibrium theory model covering capital account liberalization, bond market, stock market and foreign exchange market, and then empirically tests the time-varying effects of capital account liberalization on those financial markets in China by using SV-TVP-VAR model. The study finds the following conclusions. Firstly, with the gradual advancement of financial market system reform, the impact of capital account liberalization on China’s financial markets is deepening, among which that on foreign exchange market is the strongest, followed by that on bond market and then that on stock market. Secondly, in the short term, the liberalization of capital account is conducive to the development of domestic financial markets, but a negative one in the long run. Thirdly, compared with the overall liberalization of capital accounts, that of short-term capital accounts has a weaker yet volatile impact on China’s financial markets since China has been cautious in the management of short-term capital flows.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 63-70 [Abstract] ( 872 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1554KB] ( 766 )

	71	Study on the Economic Growth Effect of Free Trade Zones——A Dynamic Analysis Based on Double Difference Space Autoregressive Model
		ZHANG Jun, YAN Dong-sheng, FENG Zong-xian, LI Cheng
		Using the provincial panel data from 2009 to 2017 and the double difference space autoregressive model, this article studies the economic growth effect of the 11 free trade zones from the perspectives of overall investigation, regional comparison as well as time trend. The results show that: 1) the establishment of the free trade zone has a significant positive effect on the economic growth in general. Compared with the GDP per capita, there is a greater role in promoting the total GDP in terms of the intensity of the effect. At the same time, the establishment of free trade zones has a significant positive spillover effect on the surrounding provinces. 2) From a regional perspective, the positive effect of coastal free trade zones on economic growth is smaller than that of inland free trade zones. 3) From the perspective of time trend, the positive effect of the three batches of free trade zones on economic growth show a “U” trend that first declines and then rises. Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes some targeted countermeasures to better enhance the promotion effect of free trade zone strategy on China’s economic development, such as strengthening the implementation of the strategy, improving the space radiation mechanism, optimizing the spatial pattern, promoting the differentiated development according to local conditions, designing a gradient development path, fully releasing systematic synergy and so on.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 71-77 [Abstract] ( 1530 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1001KB] ( 1234 )

	78	The Study of Power Distribution and Influencing Factors of China’s Film Industry Network
		WEN Hu, ZHANG Qiang-guo
		By means of social network analysis, this paper uses the relational data of enterprises participated in Chinese domestic films between 2003 and 2015 who occupied more than 70% of all box sales of the year, and investigates into the power distribution of nodes in China’s film industry network.Then it empirically analyzes the influencing factors of power acquisition of Chinese film enterprises using negative binomial regression model. The results show that the Gini coefficient of the recursive centrality of the nodes of China’s film industry network is 0.5955 with a highly uneven power distribution, presenting a "core-edge" pattern. China Film Group Corporation, a state-owned enterprise, occupies the core of power in the entire network, imposing profound influences on the network organization and operation of China’s film industry. A small number of private production companies and post-production companies that are vertically integrated with China Film Group Corporation have also acquired high network power. Regression results show that the scarce industrial resources, social rules, and the cooperation mode of industrial chain all have a significant impact on film enterprises’ network power acquisition.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 78-85 [Abstract] ( 997 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1602KB] ( 872 )

	86	Labor Market Distortion and Rationalization of Industrial Structure
		LI Jian-ping, ZHOU Lei, SUN Ning-hua
		By constructing a three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates non-homothetic preference and efficiency differences of industries, this paper analyzes the mechanism of labor migration across sectors. Then by introducing the distortion coefficient of labor market and the optimization index of industrial structure into the model, this paper analyzes the effects of labor market distortion on the rationalization of industrial structure. Furthermore, based on Tobit model and provincial panel data from 2006 to 2015, the paper estimates the distortion level of Chinese labor market within a decade. The result shows the decrease of distortion is significantly conducive to labor migration and the rationalization of industrial structure. The coefficient of labor market distortion in China as a whole in the past decade is about 0.78, which leads to an output loss of about 3%.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 86-93 [Abstract] ( 997 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1438KB] ( 1051 )

	94	Non-R&D Innovation and High-tech Industry Innovation Performance
		JI Zhong-yang, LI Yan-long
		Based on the panel data of 28 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2016, the panel threshold model is used to empirically study the non-linear effect of non-R&D innovation on innovation performance of high-tech industry. This paper analyzes the impact of non-R&D innovations on the innovation performance difference among regional high-tech industries from both national and regional levels. Then the counter-factual measurement methods are adopted to quantitatively measure the level and convergence of non-R&D innovations affecting innovation performance. The results show that government R&D funding has a negative impact on the effect of non-R&D innovation, while the enterprise scale and export intensity have a positive impact on it. At the national level, non-R&D innovation has the greatest promotion effect in the eastern region and the least in the western region, which significantly widens the regional gap in innovation performance. At the regional level, non-R&D innovation also widens the gap in innovation performance among the east, central and west regions, with the largest impact on the western region and the least impact on the eastern region. In addition, the contribution of non-R&D innovation to the eastern and central regions is on the rise. In recent years, the growth of non-R&D innovation has improved the innovation performance of high-tech industries in the eastern and central regions by about 5%.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 94-101 [Abstract] ( 1066 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 822KB] ( 1044 )

	102	The Impact of Organizational Reputation on Innovation Performance in Enterprise Innovation Network——The Mediating Effect of Knowledge Cooperation and the Moderating Effect of Network Characteristics
		LIU Yun, WANG Tao, GU Xin
		Based on the reputation theory, the knowledge base theory and the social network theory, the paper constructs a logic framework of “organizational reputation, knowledge cooperation behavior and innovation performance”, and explores the influencing mechanism of organizational reputation on innovation performance in enterprise innovation network. The results reveal that organizational reputation has a significant positive influence on innovation performance in enterprise innovation network. The two kinds of knowledge cooperation behaviors, namely knowledge transfer and knowledge sharing, play the role of partial intermediary between organizational reputation and innovation performance. In addition, network location plays a moderating role in positively reinforcing the links between organizational reputation and knowledge transfer and knowledge sharing. This study provides some enlightenment in the regulation practice of network reputation in innovation.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 102-109 [Abstract] ( 953 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1153KB] ( 1027 )

	110	The Impact of Suppliers’ Corporate Reputation on Extra-role Altruistic Behavior of Distributors: The Mediating Effect of Trust
		SONG Feng-sen, CHEN Jie
		Corporate reputation is an important and effective mechanism to inspire subject behavior in the alliance relationship. However, few researchers have studied the influence of corporate reputation on channel behavior. The extra-role behavior of channel members includes altruistic behavior and speculative behavior, among which the latter has been the focus of past studies while the former is seldom studied. Taking distributors as samples of investigation, this research incorporates both suppliers’ corporate reputation and distributors’ extra-role altruistic behavior into the framework, and introduces the inter-organizational trust as the intermediary variable to explore the mechanism and influence path of suppliers’ corporate reputation on distributors’ extra-role altruistic behavior. The empirical results show that the different dimensions of suppliers’ reputation have direct effects on distributors’ extra-role altruistic behavior as well as indirect effects through inter-organizational trust. Benevolence-based trust plays a partially intermediary role between the corporate reputation of social responsibility, reputation of fair trade and distributors’ extra-role altruistic behavior, whereas the trust of capacity partially mediates between the reputation of suppliers’ distribution ability, the reputation of innovation ability and distributors’ extra-role altruistic behavior.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 110-117 [Abstract] ( 941 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 913KB] ( 884 )

	118	Can R&D Investment Promote the Quality of Innovation?—The Regulating Role of Venture Capital
		HE Yong
		Taking 569 GEM listed companies in China from 2009 to 2016 as samples and using their unbalanced panel data from 2009 to 2017,this paper studies the impact of venture capital and R&D investment on innovation quality of enterprises. Enterprise value can be regarded as the economic value of innovation quality. The results show that venture capital participation has a significant and positive effect on innovation quality of enterprises. Current R&D investment shows no positive effect on innovation quality of enterprises, and even negative effects at some point. In other words, increasing R&D investment does not significantly increase the economic value of enterprise innovation quality, but rather, excessive R&D investment reduces the quality of enterprise innovation. There is a lag in the promoting effect of R&D investment. Further research shows that the characteristics of venture capital have significant moderating effects on the relationship between R&D investment and enterprise innovation quality, among which venture capital with state-owned background can strengthen the impact of R&D investment on enterprise innovation quality.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 118-125 [Abstract] ( 1160 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 851KB] ( 712 )

	126	The Impact Mechanism of Servant-type Leadership on Employees’ Sense of Calling
		TIAN Hong-bin, TIAN Qi-tao
		In the new era, employees pay more attention to the pursuit of the sense of professional calling. Based on previous relevant research, this study constructs a moderation-mediation model and explores the mediation mechanism and its boundary conditions of servant-type leadership’s impact on employees’ sense of calling. Furthermore, the paper takes social information processing as the theoretical base and attempts to explain the relationship between the servant-type leadership and employees’ sense of calling through the mediating variable of job crafting. On this basis, a moderation effect is assumed in the relationship between self-validation efforts and self-management failure. Through a three-phase survey of 398 employees in a high-tech listed company, the above assumption is tested and the result is generally consistent with the theoretical prediction. This study is conducive to the understanding of the relationship among organizational context, employee’s personal traits and behavioral habit and their sense of calling. In addition, it provides guidance in helping employees to meet personal needs in their jobs through pertinent measures from the administrators.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 126-132 [Abstract] ( 903 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1051KB] ( 934 )

	133	Reserch on Dynamic Effects of China’s Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth—A Test Based on the Double Drive of “Aggregate Adjustment + Structural Optimization”
		ZHANG Long, LIU Jin-quan
		Based on data between 2007 and 2018, this paper uses MS-VAR model and SV-TVP-FAVAR model to study the dynamic impacts of China’s fiscal policy on economic growth from both the aggregate and structural perspective. The results show that firstly, in the period of moderate economic growth, the fiscal expenditure has a positive impact on economic growth while taxation has a negative one in terms of the aggregate; education and scientific research expenditure and investment expenditure have a positive impact while the general public service expenditure, value-added tax, consumption tax and income tax have negative impacts in terms of the structure. Secondly, in the period of rapid economic growth, both fiscal expenditure and taxation have a positive impact on economic growth in terms of the aggregate; education and scientific research expenditure, investment expenditure, value-added tax and income tax have a positive impact while the general public service expenditure and consumption tax have a negative impact in terms of the structure. It is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy for specific industries on the one hand, and to implement structural optimization on the other.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 133-140 [Abstract] ( 999 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1851KB] ( 855 )

	141	Behavior Analysis of Farmers’ Participation in Poverty Alleviation of Agricultural Value Chain Finance in China——An Empirical Study Based on Structural Equation Model
		ZHENG Xiu-feng, ZHANG Ya-bo
		Based on the micro-data of farmers in the key poverty alleviation areas in Henan Province, an empirical research on value chain financing behavior of farmers is conducted by establishing a structural equation model (SEM) from five aspects: individual characteristics, family characteristics, reputation mechanism, farmers’ willingness to participate in agricultural value chain financing and financing effects. The empirical results show that three potential variables of poor farmers, namely individual characteristics, family characteristics and reputation status, are significantly positively correlated with their willingness and effect of participation in the agricultural value chain finance, among which the reputation status has the strongest influence, followed by the family characteristics and individual characteristics. Moreover, the farmers’ willingness of participation in the value chain financing and the financing effect also show the characteristics of mutual influence. Especially, the better the financing effect, the stronger the farmers’ willingness of contract fulfillment and the participation enthusiasm in the agricultural value chain finance. Corresponding policy inspirations and suggestions have been put forward for this purpose.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 141-148 [Abstract] ( 836 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1588KB] ( 1025 )

	149	Estimation of Individual Income Tax Loss —An Empirical Analysis of Detection and Control Model
		MA Nian-yi, JIN You-wen
		Adopting the micro data from personal income tax collection and inspection,this paper studies the overall rate of individual income tax loss based on the sample taxpayers and the detection and control model. The findings suggest that the overall rate of individual income tax loss is about 50%. The tax evasion motivation is greatly influenced by the taxpayer’s income, marginal tax rate and the proportion of salary income whereas age, marital status of and the taxpayer’s affiliation to the key monitoring group of tax authorities do not show any significant impact. The improvement of the coverage rate of tax inspection and the quality of tax inspectors has a significant impact on reducing the loss rate of personal income tax.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 149-156 [Abstract] ( 1174 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 921KB] ( 854 )

	157	Technological Innovation, Financial Development and Real Economy Growth——An Analysis of Yangtze River Economic Zone Based on Dynamic Spatial Model
		WANG Fa-yuan, ZHENG Jun
		By means of dynamic spatial durbin model, this paper investigates the relationship among scientific and technological innovation, financial development and real economy growth based on data in these aspects of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1999 to 2016. The results show that the spatial effects of development are taking shape in Yangtze River Economic Belt, and there is a positive spillover effect in the development of real economy. Scientific and technological innovation and financial development have a positive effect on the development of the local real economy but a negative one on the neighboring provinces and cities. Moreover, the cross-term of scientific and technological innovation and financial development has a direct negative effect and a positive indirect effect on the real economy growth. The increase in openness and human capital has a significant positive spillover effect on neighboring regions. Therefore, it is a must that the real economy be vigorously developed and the regional spatial spillover effect be given full play to.
		2019 Vol. 36 (4): 157-164 [Abstract] ( 1047 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1003KB] ( 1057 )

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