Reserch on Dynamic Effects of China’s Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth—A Test Based on the Double Drive of “Aggregate Adjustment + Structural Optimization”
Reserch on Dynamic Effects of China’s Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth—A Test Based on the Double Drive of “Aggregate Adjustment + Structural Optimization”
ZHANG Long, LIU Jin-quan
Business School, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Abstract Based on data between 2007 and 2018, this paper uses MS-VAR model and SV-TVP-FAVAR model to study the dynamic impacts of China’s fiscal policy on economic growth from both the aggregate and structural perspective. The results show that firstly, in the period of moderate economic growth, the fiscal expenditure has a positive impact on economic growth while taxation has a negative one in terms of the aggregate; education and scientific research expenditure and investment expenditure have a positive impact while the general public service expenditure, value-added tax, consumption tax and income tax have negative impacts in terms of the structure. Secondly, in the period of rapid economic growth, both fiscal expenditure and taxation have a positive impact on economic growth in terms of the aggregate; education and scientific research expenditure, investment expenditure, value-added tax and income tax have a positive impact while the general public service expenditure and consumption tax have a negative impact in terms of the structure. It is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy for specific industries on the one hand, and to implement structural optimization on the other.
ZHANG Long,LIU Jin-quan. Reserch on Dynamic Effects of China’s Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth—A Test Based on the Double Drive of “Aggregate Adjustment + Structural Optimization”. Economic Survey, 2019, 36(4): 0133.
2019, Vol. 36 
