Economic Survey

经济经纬

　

Home Current Issue Instruction Subscription Advertisement Contact Us Message Chinese

经济经纬

　

Office

　

Author Center

　

　

Links

　

　　　　　　　　 More

Quick Search

Advanced Search

Economic Survey

	2019 Vol.36 Issue.3 Published 2019-05-10

	1	Inter-sectoral Contagion Mechanism of Regional Financial Risks and an Empirical Analysis
		DING Shu-jun, ZHUANG Xu-juan, LI Wen-jun
		This paper uses panel data of 31 provinces (cities, districts) in China from 2005 to 2016 and adopts static panel data model to empirically study the risk contagion mechanism of regional financial risks among four sectors in China. An empirical study shows that there are many risk-contagion paths among the four sectors in the process of regional financial risk contagion in China. Among them, the financial sector is at the core of the contagion mechanism, which shows great liability of being affected as well as affecting other sectors. The risks faced by the family sector have increased in recent years, and the effects of risk transmission in other sectors have been strong, and the family sector is most vulnerable to risks from other sectors.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 1-8 [Abstract] ( 821 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 754KB] ( 759 )

	9	The Efficiency Measurement and Decomposition and Space-time Evolution of Tourism Industry in Henan
		WANG Shao-hua
		In the new era, it is of urgent importance to improve the efficiency of tourism industry to tackle its unbalanced and insufficient development, to implement the tourism economic transformation and to promote both its quality and efficiency. This paper selects Henan province as case study area and employs DEA and ESDA models to explore the characteristics and pattern of spatial evolution in underdeveloped areas. The results show that firstly, the tourism industry efficiency of Henan demonstrates a rising characteristic in recent years, but when analyzed from the perspective of decomposed efficiency, the promotion of total efficiency manly relies on the expansion of scale efficiency rather than technical efficiency. Secondly, the space-time evolution is significant in tourism efficiency of different regions. High-value areas increase progressively in number and are gradually grouped in the belt area along the Yellow River and the Tai-hang Mountain while low-value areas decrease and are distributed sporadically in central and eastern Henan. Finally, the spatial pattern of tourism efficiency of Henan province shows a transformation from random and dispersed distribution to geographic concentration as well as a gradient disparity from northwest to southeast. Based on this, the paper discusses the countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve regional tourism efficiency of different geographic regions so as to achieve the symbiotic development of regional tourism through classified guidance and macro-control.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 9-16 [Abstract] ( 880 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2164KB] ( 773 )

	17	Impacts of Geographic Elements on the Spatial Distribution of the Commercial Banks in Tourist Cities——A Case Study of Guilin
		ZOU Jing, DENG Xiao-jun
		Based on geographic data obtained from network platform and multiple GIS spatial statistics and analysis methods, this paper takes the international tourist resort city of Guilin as an example to analyze from the micro scale the spatial distribution characteristics of commercial banks in tourism cities and the influence of geographical factors. The results show that there are both commonality and individuality in spatial distribution characteristics of the commercial banks in tourist cities. As in other cities, the commercial banks in tourist cities are more likely to cluster in commercial districts, and the number and scale of the cluster centers present a certain hierarchical structure. However, compared with other cities, the service scope of the commercial banks in tourist cities is smaller, and the internationalization degree is lower. The geographic elements such as population, economy, commercial centers, and major transportation roads dominate the spatial distribution pattern of commercial banks in tourist cities, but the impact of the tourist attractions on the distribution is non-significant.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 17-24 [Abstract] ( 966 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1061KB] ( 780 )

	25	Research on Wheat Growing and Management Behavior of High-Quality Wheat Growers——Based on the Investigation of Wheat Pilot Counties in Henan
		ZHANG Jian-jie, ZHANG Gai-qing
		At present, high-quality wheat growers in Henan are still dominated by small-scale farmers. Household heads have obvious dominance and authority in decision-making, and those who are male, middle-aged and who have middle school or high school education background show significant higher preference of growing high-quality wheat over other household heads. The farmland of high-quality wheat growers transfers on a small scale but at a high frequency, presenting a cropping pattern featuring wheat-corn and wheat-peanut. These growers tend to subcontract the purchasing of agricultural materials and agricultural machinery work to socialized agricultural service organizations, showing a progress of fine farming and standardized management as well as a higher rate of signing and implementing contracts of production on order through cooperatives. Sustainable development of wheat growing and management from high-quality growers depends on the realization of high quality and high price, which is subject to the influence of multiple factors with varied degrees, including the age and education background of household heads, the area of wheat crops, the number of agricultural labors in the families, the proportion of their agricultural income, the planting technology of high-quality wheat, the implementation rate of order, government subsidies and so on.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 25-32 [Abstract] ( 714 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1125KB] ( 822 )

	33	The Influence of New Rural Endowment Insurance on Land Transfer Behavior of Rural Families——Based on the Micro Data of Rural Families in 5 Provinces from China Rural Development Survey
		LUO Ren-fu, LIU Yan, LIU Cheng-fang, ZHANG Lin-xiu, ZHAO Qi-ran
		Based on the two-period micro data of 1803 rural households in five provinces from China Rural Development Survey, this paper uses the fixed-effect model at the level of farmers to analyze the impact of new rural endowment insurance on land transfer behavior of rural families. The results show that participation in new rural endowment insurance has positive effects on the total land transfer and outward land transfer behavior of rural family, but has no significant effect on the inward land transfer. The government should step up efforts to implement and improve the new rural endowment insurance policy, strengthen rural social old-age support system, promote the integration of rural land transfer policies and the new rural endowment insurance policies and strengthen the synergy of policies so as to improve old-age support for rural residents and to facilitate the land transfer of rural families.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 33-40 [Abstract] ( 885 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1052KB] ( 830 )

	41	Empirical Study on Internal Influencing Factors of Farmer Households’ Green Production Behavior in Rural Revitalization Strategy
		GAO Xin
		Based on empirical survey data of 938 farmer households from 42 counties/districts of Henan Province, this paper uses structural equation model to quantitatively analyze the internal influencing factors of farmer households’ green production behavior in Rural Revitalization Strategy. Results show that farmer households’ choice of green production behavior is a complex process, influenced by multiple internal factors with varied degrees and modes. Factors such as individual characteristics, household characteristics as well as the perception of the Rural Revitalization Strategy and potential benefits of green development of agriculture are found to positively influence farmer households’ green production behavior. In the meantime, individual characteristics and household characteristics have a positive influence on the perception of the Rural Revitalization Strategy and potential benefits of green development of agriculture. Therefore, the Rural Revitalization Strategy should be promoted in such a way that it maintains farmers’ principal position, respects farmers’ will, improves farmers’ quality and increases farmers’ income, thereby strengthening the endogenous power of Rural Revitalization.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 41-48 [Abstract] ( 1009 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1260KB] ( 979 )

	49	Research on the Influence of FDI and OFDI on the Quality of Export Products
		CHENG Kai, YANG Feng-min
		In this paper, the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR) is used to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on the quality of export products under the nonlinear framework. The research finds that: 1)The nonlinear model is more suitable for the study of the relationship between FDI, OFDI and export product quality than the linear model. 2)FDI and OFDI have a highly stable and significant improvement effect on the quality of export products, and the promotion effect of OFDI is greater than that of FDI. 3)The impact of RMB real exchange rate on the quality of export products tends to be short-term and has a significant nonlinear positive impact. In addition, the impact of GDP in export destination countries tend to be long-term, and that of foreign direct investment is somewhere in between. Therefore, studies have shown that the government should continue to adhere to both the “bringing in” and “going global” strategies. Specifically methods such as tax incentives and simplification of approval procedures should be taken to expand the scales of “bringing in” and “going global” so as to jointly promote the quality upgrade of China’s export products.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 49-57 [Abstract] ( 988 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1124KB] ( 930 )

	58	The Impact of Capital Account Liberalization Policy on Corporate Financing Behavior——An Empirial Analysis of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Policy
		XIAO Han, LIU Fang
		Taking the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy as an example, this paper adopts 2013-2016 quarterly data of 1089 listed companies in Shanghai A-share Stock market to empirically study the policy effects on the financing behavior of listed companies and small companies through double and triple difference methods. Results show that first, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy has boosted the enthusiasm and significantly increased the scale of equity financing and debt financing of listed companies. Second, though the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy does not alleviate the financing constraints of small companies in the short term compared with large companies, it raises their enthusiasm for debt financing. Third, the parallel trend assumptions required by the double difference and triple difference methods are all satisfied. The harmonization of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy with the liberalization of interest rate marketization together with the break-through of rigid payment and other capital marketization reform policies will improve the long-term financing behavior of small and medium-sized enterprises and promote the cultivation and development of small and medium-sized high-tech enterprises.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 58-65 [Abstract] ( 957 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 884KB] ( 842 )

	66	A Comparative Study of Labor Factor Income and Factor Quality Effect in China and the United States Based on Value Chain Division of Labor
		CUI Ri-ming, HAN Yuan-yuan, LI Dan
		Under the division of labor in value chain, the trade interests are more and more reflected in the income of the elements participating in the division of labor. China has become the largest value-added exporter in the world, but whether its value-added scale matches trade interests is a matter of concern. In this regard, this paper chooses the United States as the object of contrast and reference to study China’s labor factor income participating in the value chain division. This paper constructs a labor income distribution model based on value-added accounting to measure the labor income of China and the United States, and uses HSDA method to focus on the quality of factors that bring about the change of labor income. The results of this study show that although the largest value-added exporter, China’s trade benefit is far below that of the United States. Under the value chain division of labor, China’s labor income is more represented by capital income, while that of the United States is represented by labor factor income. The gap continues to expand between China and the United States in unit labor income, and after subdividing skills, it is found that the income gap is widened between China and the United States in high, medium and low skilled labor factor income. Factor quality has become the main factor affecting the growth of labor factor income, and the labor income gap between China and the United States is mainly caused by factor quality.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 66-72 [Abstract] ( 820 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 813KB] ( 808 )

	73	Board Characteristics, Environmental Regulation and Green Development of Manufacturing Enterprises——Empirical Analysis Based on 2012-2016 Panel Data of Manufacturing Enterprises
		TANG Yong-jun, LI Peng
		Based on the content analysis method, this paper measures the green development of enterprises by interpreting the social responsibility report, environmental report and sustainable development report. Taking Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share manufacturing enterprises as samples, the paper adopts heteroscedastic robust estimation to investigate the relationship between the heterogeneity of board members, environmental regulation and green development of manufacturing enterprises. The study finds that environmental administrative supervision can effectively promote the green development of enterprises, while “soft” measures are counterproductive. There is a positive but non-significant correlation between economic environmental regulation and green development. The heterogeneity of board members’ gender, age and education plays a mediating role between environmental regulation and green development.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 73-80 [Abstract] ( 907 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1019KB] ( 1061 )

	81	Industry Life Cycle, Market Concentration and Economic Performance ——An Empirical Study Based on 493 Sub-sectors of China’s Industry
		ZHENG Fei
		Traditional studies on the relationship between the market concentration and the economic performance implicitly assume that the industry life cycle remains constant. Using the panel data of China’s economic censuses in 2004, 2008 and 2013, the industry life cycle of 493 sub-sectors is measured based on the growth rate classification method. The adjustment effect model is adopted to further integrate the industry life cycle, which is an important significant variable, into the analysis framework so as to reveal the the impact of the market concentration on the performance during different periods of the industrial development. The empirical results show that during the formation period and the growth period of the industrial development, expanding industrial scale has little effect on the performance, while in stable and the recession periods it effectively improve the performance of the industry. The industry life cycle not only directly affects the performance of the industry, but also plays a significant role in regulating the relationship between the market concentration and the economic performance.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 81-87 [Abstract] ( 963 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 959KB] ( 1002 )

	88	Does Social Capital of Venture Capital Institutions Always Promote the Performance of Entrepreneurial Enterprises?
		XUE Jing, CHEN Min-ling
		Based on CVsource and private equity database, this paper analyses data of the VC financing events from 2010 to 2017, and uses Probit and other regression analysis to test the effect of social capital on the performance of entrepreneurial enterprises at various stages. The empirical results show that the social capital of venture capital institutions has a significant positive impact on the early stage financing performance of entrepreneurial enterprises. The work experience in investment bank and political connections of venture capital institutions have a significant positive impact on the growth performance of entrepreneurial enterprises, but a negative one in maturity stage and afterwards.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 88-94 [Abstract] ( 830 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 787KB] ( 841 )

	95	Intellectual Property Rights Protection Law Enforcement, Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading
		YI Qian, BU Wei
		By constructing an index of intellectual property (IP) rights protection law enforcement on macro, medium and micro levels, this paper examines the impact of IP rights protection law enforcement on the technological innovation and industrial upgrading of provincial enterprises based on China’s provincial panel data of 2001 to 2015. It is found that the enforcement of IP rights protection can improve the technological innovation of provincial enterprises, especially in developed regions. Meanwhile, the promoting effect of IP rights law enforcement is much greater on non-invention patent than that on invention patent. It also shows that the stronger the law enforcement of IP rights protection, the greater the promoting effect on industrial upgrading is from the technological innovation of provincial enterprises.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 95-101 [Abstract] ( 906 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 685KB] ( 925 )

	102	Monetary Policy, Bank Monitoring, and Enterprise Earnings Management
		ZHAO Chun-xiang, YANG Yang
		Based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2017, the paper examines the influence of monetary policies and bank monitoring on enterprise earnings management. The results show that enterprises’ aggressive earnings management decreases significantly when the central bank tightens the monetary policy. Similarly, enterprises are less likely to engage in aggressive earnings management when banks scrutinize closely on their loan process. This effect is further enhanced when combined with a tight monetary policy. Furthermore, bank monitoring can hardly restrict earnings management in enterprises with directors from banks whereas in the enterprises without such directors, bank monitoring significantly restricts earnings management. The study not only contributes to the literature on the economic consequence of macroeconomic policies and on influencing factors of enterprise earnings management, but also provides great value to decision making of managers of commercial banks and other enterprises. It also sheds some light on the optimization of corporate governance mechanism.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 102-109 [Abstract] ( 835 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1083KB] ( 734 )

	110	Research on the Influence Mechanism of Cognitive Distance and Social Distance Between Supply Chain Enterprises on Cooperative Innovation Performance
		HU Qin-fang, LI Xiang, TANG Wei-bing
		In the collaborative innovation projects among supply chain enterprises, implicit cognitive distance and social distance are increasingly valued by researchers as key variables affecting cooperative innovation performance. Based on the data of the rail transit industry supply chain, the paper empirically studies the impact of cognitive distance and social distance on the performance of cooperative innovation and their influence mechanisms. The study finds that the cognitive distance and social distance between supply chain enterprises have a positive impact on the new product novelty, but have a negative one on the new product development speed. New product novelty has a positive impact on the cooperative innovation performance while new product development speed has a negative impact on it. New product novelty and new product development speed have a mediating role in the influencing process of cognitive distance and social distance between supply chain enterprises affecting cooperative innovation performance.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 110-117 [Abstract] ( 877 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 957KB] ( 801 )

	118	Does Audit Opinion Shopping Exist in the Internal Control Audit? ——Empirical Evidence from Internal Control Audit of China’s Listed Companies
		ZHANG Li-wen, ZHANG Li-min
		Internal control audit is an important regulatory measure and institutional arrangement for the administrator level to regulate internal control of the company and to safeguard the interests of the investors. However, due to the unpredictability in the formation of the internal control audit opinions, it is conducive to the occurrence of internal control opinion shopping. The empirical results suggest that there does exist certain scope of audit opinions shopping in China’s internal audit control, and it is more significant in non-state-owned companies. The shopping behavior can be restrained by upgrading high auditor industry specialization. Further analysis finds that internal control auditor can not help the company to correct internal control deficiencies, which shows that there is audit opinion shopping in the improvement of internal audit control. This paper enriches the empirical evidence for internal control opinion shopping in China and is also of great realistic significance and reference value for investors and regulators to make investment decisions and formulate relevant policies.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 118-125 [Abstract] ( 949 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 867KB] ( 1160 )

	126	Income Inequality, Material Craving and Entrepreneurial Irrationality ——Shadowing Effect and Regulating Effect Based on Material Craving
		XU Qiao-ling
		Using the 2014 data from the China Family Tracking Survey, this paper adopts logit and tobit regression models to test respectively the relationship of income inequality and material craving to entrepreneurship decision and entrepreneurial tensity according to mediation effect test steps. It is found that there is a U-shaped relationship between income disparity and material craving. When the income gap exceeds the inflection point, income inequality is harmful to entrepreneurship whereas material craving stimulates it. In addition, income inequality obscures its harmful effect on entrepreneurship by stimulating material craving and thus promotes irrational entrepreneurship. The empirical results remain robust after replacing the explained variables, and the income inequality indicators. The regression results of subsamples show that there is a U-shaped relationship between rural income gap and material craving and the income gap promotes irrational entrepreneurship in rural areas when it exceeds the inflection point. On the contrary, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between urban income gap and material craving and the material craving decreases as the income gap rises after the inflection point. The relationship between income gap and entrepreneurship is not overt in urban areas which shows that urban residents show relative rationality on entrepreneurship when facing income gap.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 126-133 [Abstract] ( 891 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1220KB] ( 926 )

	134	Universal Two-child Policy,Population Aging and Labor Supply
		ZHANG Peng-fei
		This paper designs four plans of the total fertility rate under the universal two-child policy and calculates the future total population scale, working-age population scale and aging population scale under the birth model design for women of childbearing age. Through the hypothesis of the labor participation rate this paper forecasts the trend of scale and structure of labor supply in China between 2018 and 2050. It is found that with every increase of 0.1 in the total fertility rate, the number of Chinese labor supply will increase by 13-14 million. But the future labor supply in China decreases under all four total fertility rate plans which indicates that the universal two-child policy can improve the scale of labor supply but with limited impacts. With the increase of the total fertility rate, the proportion of the 15-29 age group in labor supply structure has been alleviated while that of the 30-34 age group has gradually increased and that of the 35-64 age group has gradually decreased. In the meantime, the proportion of male labor in labor supply structure has gradually decreased which shows universal two-child policy can indeed improve the labor supply structure. The paper also offers policy suggestions based on conclusions.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 134-141 [Abstract] ( 811 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 722KB] ( 976 )

	142	The Effects of Equity Liquidity on Innovation Activities of Strategic Emerging Industry ——From the Perspective of Financing Constraints
		ZHANG Qiang, WANG Hong-liang, YUAN Liu-chuang
		This paper uses the dynamic GMM model and panel threshold model to study the effect of equity liquidity on the R&D and innovation activities of strategic emerging industries under the different financing constraints in Shenzhen Small and Medium-sized Board and GEM from 2010 to 2017. Empirical results shows that on the whole, equity liquidity not only promotes R&D and innovation activities of enterprises but also positively enhances the effect from financing constraints on those two. This promotion effect is stronger in high-financing constrained enterprises and this paper is of policy value in government supervision mechanism over finance and effective information disclosure.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 142-149 [Abstract] ( 956 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 866KB] ( 779 )

	150	The Impact of Externality of Financial Agglomeration on Economic Development —An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Provincial Capitals
		SI Li-juan, ZHANG Li-min
		Based on the panel data of provincial capital cities from 2006 to 2015, this paper uses the spatial econometric model to construct an indicator system from the aspects of financial externality and technical externality to study the impact of financial agglomeration on economic development. The results are: 1)The expansion of financial output per unit area and the optimization of industrial structure have positive spatial spillover effects on economic development. 2)The proportion of financial value added has a positive spatial spillover effect on economic development while the previous technical level has a weak negative spatial spillover effect on economic development. 3)The financial externality shows an inverted U-shaped relationship with the change of distance whereas the technical externality shows a U-shaped one with the change of distance.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 150-156 [Abstract] ( 902 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 791KB] ( 907 )

	157	Research on the Role of Financial Development in the Formation of China’s Economic Efficiency ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Model
		TANG Wen-Lin, LI Xiong-Shi, CHANG Ya-li
		Using provincial macroeconomic data from 2005 to 2016 and the spatial econometric model, this article measures the function of financial development in the formation of economic efficiency. The results show that: 1) Financial development has an important impact on the improvement of China’s economic efficiency, especially on the increase of total factor productivity. 2) The existing development pattern of banking system is generally not conducive to the overall improvement of economic efficiency, and the development of the financial market begins to reveal its guiding effect on economic efficiency. 3) Financial development has a significant effect on China’s regional economic efficiency, which varies greatly among different regions due to varied reasons. Based on the these, this article proposes that financial development should be the key of current supply-side structural reform and financial services for the real economy.
		2019 Vol. 36 (3): 157-164 [Abstract] ( 868 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 897KB] ( 820 )

经济经纬

　

News

　

　

·

·	《经济经纬》编辑部声明

·

·

·

·

·

·

·

·

·

　　　　　　　　 More

　

Article Search

　

Copyright © 《Chemical Research and Application》Editorial
Support by Beijing Magtech Co.ltd support@magtech.com.cn