Abstract This paper designs four plans of the total fertility rate under the universal two-child policy and calculates the future total population scale, working-age population scale and aging population scale under the birth model design for women of childbearing age. Through the hypothesis of the labor participation rate this paper forecasts the trend of scale and structure of labor supply in China between 2018 and 2050. It is found that with every increase of 0.1 in the total fertility rate, the number of Chinese labor supply will increase by 13-14 million. But the future labor supply in China decreases under all four total fertility rate plans which indicates that the universal two-child policy can improve the scale of labor supply but with limited impacts. With the increase of the total fertility rate, the proportion of the 15-29 age group in labor supply structure has been alleviated while that of the 30-34 age group has gradually increased and that of the 35-64 age group has gradually decreased. In the meantime, the proportion of male labor in labor supply structure has gradually decreased which shows universal two-child policy can indeed improve the labor supply structure. The paper also offers policy suggestions based on conclusions.
2019, Vol. 36 
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