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Economic Survey
2018 Vol.35 Issue.2
Published 2018-03-10
7
An Empirical Study on the Effects of Financial Agglomeration on Rural-Urban Income Gap In China——A Dual Test Based on Dynamic GMM Model and Spatial Durbin Model
WU Li-li
Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014, the conclusions from an empirical test of dynamic GMM model and spatial Durbin model are as follows:1) the effects of financial agglomeration on rural-urban income gap in China show regional disparity, industrial heterogeneity and spatial correlation. Examined nationally, agglomeration of securities industry can reduce income gap, while that of banking and insurance do the opposite. When examined regionally, agglomeration of banking and security industries in eastern regions is positively related to rural-urban income gap, while agglomeration of securities in central region is negatively related and that of insurance in western regions is positively related. After introducing spatial variables, security industry agglomeration has negative local effect and spillover effect, thus can reduce the rural-urban income gap in the local and the surrounding areas.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 7-12 [
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Subnational Economic Agglomeration, Institution Distance and Liability of Foreignness
ZHANG Yu-ting, JIANG Yun-long
Based on agglomeration economy theory and institutional theory, this paper takes as samples the foreign subsidiaries operating in China’s manufacturing industry, and adopts system GMM method to empirically test the interaction effect of the subnational economic agglomeration and institutional distance on the liability of foreignness. The results show that the interaction effect of subnational specialized agglomeration and institutional distance have no significant impact on the liability of foreignness. Subnational diversified agglomeration and cultural distance have a significant effect on the liability of foreignness. Subnational diversified agglomeration and regulation distance show no clear influence on liability of foreignness. Neither do subnational diversified agglomeration and economic distance.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 13-19 [
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Regional Economic Disparities and Coordinated Development of Henan Province
LI Jin, CAO Yun-yuan, SUN Chang-qing
Regional coordinated development has long been the basic strategy in guiding the regional economic development of our country. It is of great significance for the coordinated regional economic development to give scientific judgement on differences in its process. Using three indexes of range, standard deviation and coefficient of variation, this paper measures the absolute and relative differences of regional economy of 18 cities in Henan province from 2003 to 2015. Then adopting SPSS 21.0 and methods of factor and cluster analysis, it proceeds to an empirical study of regional economic development in those cities by selecting 11 indicators, including GDP and fixed asset investment and by establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system. The results show that the regional economic disparities in Henan since 2003 has been fluctuating while growing smaller.The entire province has formed an economic space pattern of core-periphery structure with the central region of central plain city group being the core.The major influencing factors are traffic conditions,resource endowment,socio-economic base,strategies of coordinated development and so on.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 20-26 [
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Influence of Labor Migration Experience on Formal and Informal Credit for Rural Households——An Empirical Analysis Based on Micro Data from CFPS 2014
PENG Ji-chun, TAN Yan-zhi, ZHANG Zi-hao
Adopting the data of CFPS 2014 and both Biprobit and Tobit models, this paper analyzes the influence of labor migration experience on rural households’ formal and informal credit. Then it tests its robustness using PSM model. Study finds that: the labor migration experience doesn’t show any positive impact on the formal credit availability for farmers. However, the social network, human capital and technology brought by labor migration have formed “implicit guarantee” of farmers, which makes it easier for them to obtain informal credit. In addition, the experience doesn’t improve the formal credit volume for farmers, but it can significantly increase the volume of informal credit.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 27-34 [
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35
The Changes of Income Inequality in Rural China: Permanent or Transitory? ——Empirical Evidence from CHNS
JIN Jing, WANG Yan-min
An empirical analysis based on the data from China Health and Nutrition Survey shows that the income inequality in rural China presents an inverted U-shape curve which shows a steady rise since the late 1990s and a sharp drop after peaking in 2005. The estimated results of error component model show that cross section variance in rural residents’ income is mainly composed of transitory variance. In addition, the widening of income inequality reflects the growth both in permanent variance and transitory variance, the latter playing a much bigger role. The evidence suggests that the income dynamics process in China is different from that in western countries. Therefore, a combination of customized tools is required in the intervention of income distribution.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 35-40 [
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Influence of Formal and Informal Finance on Farmers’ Decision Making and Effectiveness in Business Startup——A Perspective from Substitution Effect
LIU Yu-song, QIAN Wen-rong
Based on the CFPS2014 survey data, this paper establishes the Probit model and multiple linear regression model and studies the influence of formal and informal finance on farmers’decision making and effectiveness in business startup. Results show that both formal and informal finance have significant positive effect on farmers’ decision making of business startup, though informal finance shows a greater impact than formal finance. Such positive influence is also seen on farmers’ business performance, such as scale and profitability. There is a substitution effect between formal and informal finance, which means farmers will turn to informal finance if their funding needs can’t be satisfied by formal finance.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 41-47 [
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48
Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Sulfur Dioxide Emission in China
WANG Rui, ZHU Da-jian
Using panel data from 30 provinces of China from 2004 to 2013, and constructing static and dynamic panel models, this paper empirically studies the impact of OFDI on China’s SO
2
emissions and emission reduction quality. The results show that after controlling the important explanatory variables such as income per capita, both the flow and stock of OFDI increase SO
2
emissions in all Chinese provinces, which is mainly because OFDI does not improve China’s emission reduction quality through reverse technology spillover effect. China’s OFDI is mainly distributed in the business service industry and the mining industry. Under the current weak environmental regulation, high-polluting manufacturing industries are not the focus of OFDI, leading to the fact that the role of technology spillover and structural effect in improving environment quality can’t be brought to full play. Based on the research angle of environmental productivity, the paper then extends the research framework of international technology spillover and verifies the robustness of the conclusion that technology spillover of reserve emission reduction can’t be acquired from OFDI in China .
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 48-55 [
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Study on the Causes of Global Service Trade Growth in Terms of Income and Cost——An Empirical Analysis of Decomposition Equation of Trade Contribution Index from 40 Economies
GONG Jing, YIN Zhong-ming
Under the background of service economy and service globalization, this paper adopts the large sample data from the world’s input-output database (WIOD) and the decomposition equation of contribution index derived by Novy in 2008 to study the causes of service trade growth of 40 economies in the world between 1995 and 2011 in terms of income and cost. The results show that firstly, the income increase is the prime engine of service trade growth while the decrease in bilateral service trade cost is the second cause with multilateral service trade cost contributing in the meantime. Secondly, the causes of China’s service trade growth are the same as the conclusion from global samples, but the evolution trends of the three contributing causes are different. Specifically, the contribution of income increase shows a gradually decreasing trend while the contribution of descending bilateral service trade cost shows an increasing trend. In addition, the contribution of multilateral services trade cost decrease shows a slowly weakening trend.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 56-63 [
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An Empirical Study of the Effect of Urbanization on FDI
KAN Da-xue, LV Lian-ju
Adopting the spatial correction system GMM model, this paper empirically studies the effect of urbanization on FDI. It is found that spatial auto-correlation exists in the level, rate and quality of urbanization as well as the quantity and quality of FDI which in the meantime create spatial spillover effect. The level and rate of urbanization both have promoted the growth of FDI in quantity, but not so in quality, while the quality of urbanization is conducive to the growth of FDI both in quantity and quality. These conclusions are also applicable to cities of county level in eastern China and to cities of both prefecture level and county level in central and western China. The level and quality of urbanization in cities of prefecture level and up have promoted the growth of FDI both in quantity and quality. Though it does not much increase the quantity of FDI, the rate of urbanization in such cities can significantly promote the quality of FDI. These conclusions are also applicable to cities of prefecture level in eastern China and cities of prefecture level and up in other areas.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 64-70 [
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A Study on the Trend of Technological Progress and Employment Growth in China’s Manufacturing Industry Under Openness
ZHONG Shi-chuan
Adopting the CES production function, this paper discusses the relationship between technological progress and employment growth. When factor market is perfectly competitive, employment growth is decided by both economic development and technological progress. On this basis, this paper uses the data of China’s manufacturing from 1987 to 2014 for an empirical testing. The results show that the substitution elasticity of Chinese manufacturing is between 0.4 and 0.6, which means capital and labor are complementary. Economic development significantly contributes to employment. Capital investment discourages employment because of an emphasis on capital through promoting technological progress. After the introduction of FDI and international trade, the curbing effect of capital investment on employment growth in manufacturing is stronger while FDI and international trade can effectively promote employment through technological progress. Further empirical analysis shows that capital investment inhibits employment in labor-intensive industries, but promotes employment in capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. Therefore, to promote employment, it is necessary to strengthen independent innovation, to actively develop labor-oriented technology that matches national resources, to reduce the rate of capital substitution of labor and to substantially take in labor.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 71-77 [
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On the Influence of Factor Price Distortion on Labor Income Share of Chinese Industrial Enterprises
FENG Yan-chen
During the economic transition period of China, the dual regulation of factor price has led to the factor price distortion, which consists of absolute and relative ones. By measuring their influence on labor income share in enterprises of different ownership, it is found that the decrease of labor income share is mainly brought about by negative distortion of labor factors in absolute distortion of factor price and that in relative distortion of capital factor. Then the paper analyzes the ways in which factor price distortion negatively influences labor income share in enterprises of different ownership in different phases. It is helpful for relevant departments to formulate policies to reduce the factor price distortion in enterprises of different ownership, to increase the labor income share and to improve equality among all production factor income.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 78-85 [
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Study on the Effects of Industrial Structure Change on Carbon Reduction ——An Empirical Study Based on Spatial Econometrics Model
SUN Pan, WU Yu-ming, BAO Shu-ming
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 1999 to 2014, this paper uses Spatial Durbin Panel Data Model (SDPDM) to study the impact of industrial structure changes on carbon emissions from the perspectives of rationalization and optimization. The study has shown that both rationalization and optimization of industrial structure are correlated to the carbon emissions. Both rationalization and optimization have positive impact on carbon reduction and carbon emission has spacial spillover effect. The emission reduction calls for strong cooperation among provinces, more investment in research and development funding for science and technology as well as a focus on supporting services industries, especially producer services industries and modern service industries.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 93-98 [
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Study on R&D Efficiency and Influencing Factors of China’s High-Tech Industries
LIN Qing-ning , MAO Shi-ping
Based on the non-balanced panel data of high-tech enterprises in Shenzhen and Shanghai form 2008 to 2015, this paper measures and analyzes the R&D efficiency of high-tech enterprises from a space-time perspective.It also empirically tests influencing factors of high-tech enterprises with fixed effect model. The results show that there is an inverted U relationship between the R&D endowment structure and the R&D efficiency of high-tech enterprises. The state-owned holding has a positive impact on the R&D efficiency while only postgraduate education and above can significantly improve it. Therefore, with funding policy support from the government, great importance should be given to market orientation as well as to the dominance of the innovation in high-tech enterprises so as to realize the innovation-driven market economic system. High-tech enterprises should gradually improve its R&D structure and focus on human capital structure coordination and rationality.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 99-106 [
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114
Research on the Stock Price Effect of Brand Value Changes
ZHUANG Fei-peng, HAN Hui-lin
Adopting the event study method and taking the dates when “China’s 500 Most Valuable Brands” was released between 2011-2016 as dates of events, the paper studies the stock price effect of brand value and listing announcements, then further explores the relationship between changes of brand value, ranking and share price CAR as well as their influencing factors. The empirical results show that in the current China capital market environment, the brand value and brand ranking provide information, which can lead to changes in the company’s stock price. The influence of changes in brand value and ranking on CAR decreases with the growing of industry concentration, while increases with the improvement of industry growth rate. These conclusions provide empirical evidence for the Chinese enterprises to better implement the brand strategy in the capital market, and also provide reference for investors to make effective decisions.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 114-120 [
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Will Restaurants Earn More after They Joined the Take-out Platform?——A Survey Based on 267 Restaurants in Kaifeng
ZHAO Zhi-wei, QIAO Han
Through two phases of PPS sampling and Python web crawler technique, the paper first investigates the operational status quo of restaurants in Kaifeng city that have joined any of the three major take-out websites. Then it analyzes the influencing factors of the profit change by constructing an ordered choice model. Per the research results, more than half of the restaurants don’t see clear improvement in profit after they join those platforms because online profit gains can’t offset the profit losses offline. The punctuality rate, positive evaluation volume and delivery fee are the main factors affecting the profit change of restaurants. High-class restaurants are more suited for online delivery platforms while for restaurants located around school or office buildings, a high delivery fee can help promote profit growth.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 121-127 [
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Research on the Influence of Error Management Climate on Employee’s Innovation——Dual Path Effect of Basic Psychological Needs and Knowledge Construction
ZHAO Bin, XU Lu
This study explores the influencing mechanism of the error management climate on Chinese employee’s innovation behavior. The empirical analysis shows that: 1) the error management climate has a positive effect on employee’s innovation; 2) the basic psychological needs and knowledge construction as medium can reasonably explain the impact of error management climate on employee’s innovation; 3) individual psychology can influence employee innovation behavior through knowledge acquisition. The research results serve not only as a useful extension and supplement to the theoretical research of individual innovation, but also as theoretical guidance for dealing with the error dilemma in the process of innovation.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 128-134 [
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The Impact of Credit Rating Adjustment on Credit Spread of Medium-Term Notes ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panal Data of Medium-Term Notes in Chinese Banks
ZHANG Yan-hong, LI Ya-ping, HUANG Ze-min
Taking as samples medium-term notes that underwent credit rating adjustment between January of 2012 and July of 2016, this paper empirically examined the influence of credit rating adjustments on credit spread of medium-term notes. The empirical results show that compared with investors, credit rating agencies can obtain more effective information during the rating procedure, but tend to overrate bond issuers for their own interests. Downgrading of bond issuers from credit rating agencies lag behind the one from the market, while upgrading come immediately from the agencies when the bond issuers credit improves. Investors tend to overreact to credit downgrading of issuers, but are quite slow to their credit upgrading. As more and more information about bond issuers is collected, investors’ understanding of issuers credit risks will gradually move towards that from credit rating agencies.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 135-142 [
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Asset Mispricing, Institutional Investors and Stock Price Crash Risk
ZHANG Xiao-fei
Taking the A-share non-financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during 2007-2015 as samples, the paper studies the relationship between asset mispricing and stock price crash risk, as well as the impact of institutional investors on the relationship. Results show that assets mispricing is one of the most important factors which affect future stock price crash risk. Institutional investors’ holding can hinder the positive influence of mispricing on stock crash and this effect gets stronger when mispricing goes further. This shows that institutional investors play a positive role in preventing the stock crash risk. This has theoretical and practical significance for regulating institutional investors’ development.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 143-150 [
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151
Index Futures Speculators and Stock Market Volatility——Evidence from CSI 300 Index Futures
XU Bu
Based on data from A shares and index futures from May 2010 to April 2015, this paper adopts the methods of propensity score matching (PSM) and differential regression in its analysis of the impact of index futures speculators on stock market volatility. It is found that index futures speculators don’t significantly influence the stock market volatility. Under good market liquidity, index futures speculation is negatively related to stock volatility while this negative relation disappears under weak market liquidity.
2018 Vol. 35 (2): 151-157 [
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