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Economic Survey
2016 Vol.33 Issue.4
Published 2016-07-11
Original articles
1
An Outlook of the Distribution Pattern of Urban Population in Henan in 2030
SONG Wei
Henan urban population has entered a rapid growth period after 2002. Entering the new normal the rapid growth of urban population in the county-level city is over, the growth of urban population of prefecture level city slows slightly, and the population of Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area remains fast growth. In 2030, the county-level city and prefecture level city in Henan should be appropriate to control urban space expansion, Focusing on the planning area and built area, Promoting the ecological, livable, appropriate level of learning, to enhance the level of population concentration. Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area should develop a strong binding overall planning from the provincial level, to create a group development, reasonable division of labor, functional improvement, the advantages of outstanding national metropolitan area.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 1-7 [
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An Analysis of Deprived Demand on Local Public Goods During Urbanization
LI Cheng-yu,SHI Gui-fen,YANG Feng-feng
For public services in the process of urbanization, using the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2012, the paper empirically studies whether the urbanization is depriving residents to increase the demand for local public goods, as well as residents’ preference for public goods in the process of urbanization by constructing simultaneous equations model. The results show that: there are positive correlations between urbanization and six types of public goods, and in addition to environmental protection demand equation, impact coefficients of the other public goods demand equation are very significant; In the process of urbanization, the residents focus more on medical and health care demand, while the preference for environmental protection demand is small. The conclusion of this article provides certain policy implications for the local government to meet the residents' demands for public services at different levels and effectively in the process of urbanization.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 8-13 [
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The Conduction Mechanism and Influence of the Industry Multiplier Effect, Spillover Effect and Feedback Effect——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Interregional Input-output Models
SHANG Yong
The economic contacts among different regions can bring various influences, which are multiplier effect, spillover effect and feedback effect. The multiplier effect is the most important in three effects, and affect the others directly by the conduction of Leontieve inverse matrix. We verify the role and influence of conduction mechanism based on the two-regional Input-output model, the empirical result shows that the three effects decrease progressively according the distance of conduction paths, and the three effects have various characters based on the industries and regions. In two regional areas with enormous difference in economic scales, the connection of industries doesn’t show complete one-sided. With a adapt system arrangement, the trade between two regions can bring more bilateral benefit.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 14-19 [
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Dynamic Externalities and Regional Industrial Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data
QIN Yi-dong
This paper conducts an empirical study of the relationship between dynamic externalities and regional industrial growth based on China’s provincial industrial panel data from 28 regions between 2003 to 201. From the whole country it is found that specialization and diversity both have nonlinear effect on regional industrial growth, while local competition have no significant effect.Further analysis in the robustness check indicates that the effects of dynamic externalities on industrial economic growth depend on types of industry and the dimension of geographic location, but the role of local competition has nonlinear effect on regional industrial growth all the same.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 20-25 [
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Did Western Development Program Improve Carbon Green Contribution Coefficient in China’s Western Region?——An Empirical Analysis on Difference-in-Difference Method
ZHENG Jia-jia
Based on China’s 30 provincial carbon emissions panel data during 1995-2011, this paper uses Difference-in-Difference method to inspect the influence of Western Development Program and its mechanism. Empirical results show that Western Development Program increased the Carbon Green Contribution Coefficient in China’s Western Region significantly, which was also named the production efficiency of carbon. Through further investigation from double difference estimator, this paper finds that this Program promoted the Western Region’s economic development and Carbon Green Contribution Coefficient as well mainly by means of raising the marketing level, improving job opportunities and environment, developing foreign trade and so on. During this period, although people’s wages and educational level have significantly risen, these factors did not increase the production efficiency of carbon in Western Region. This may have something to do with the “by the waste into the luxury” consumption habit, the backward environmental awareness and the long transformation period from human capital to social productivity. Therefore, more attention should be paid to these components.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 26-31 [
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32
The Evolution of Quality of Employment of Landless Peasants—— Based on Follow-up Survey Data in Beijing
WANG Yi, SHI Dan-xi
The paper takes the landless farmers in Beijing area as the research object, using the 2008 and 2015 survey data, by constructing ordinal variables logit regression model, to study of relevant factors change the process of urbanization of landless peasants in the quality of employment in Beijing, and its influencing factors. The study found: The landless peasants marital status, residence, education, work experience, health status, job type, industry distribution, wage levels and so have a significant impact on the quality of employment of landless peasants. Along with the advancement of urbanization, the factors affecting the quality of land-lost farmers employment change is not very big, but in 2015 the age of the landless peasants variables significantly negative effects on the employment quality, old-age security and quality of employment is significantly positive, marriage variable is not significant in 2015. Under the new normal economic background, to carry out practical and effective vocational skills training and continuing education, promote entrepreneurship to promote employment, improve the social security issue initiatives, boost quality employment of landless peasants and urbanization quality two-way upgrade.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 32-37 [
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A Research on the Influencing Factors and Performance Results of the Independent Innovation Capability of Rural Circulation Enterprises
SHEN Peng-yi
This paper builds a theoretical model that reflecting the influencing factors of the independent innovation capability of rural circulation enterprises and its impact on innovation performance, and analyzes empirically the model using survey data from Jiangxi rural circulation enterprises. Results show that institution environment, resource base, market competition environment, network capability, entrepreneurial orientation and intellectual capital impact positively the independent innovation capability, thereunto, resource base, entrepreneurial orientation and intellectual capital have more positive impact on it. The independent innovation capability of rural circulation enterprises impact positively innovation performance. In addition, enterprise characteristics have a certain degree moderating role in the relationship between the independent innovation capability of rural circulation enterprises and its driving factors, and in the relationship between independent innovation capability and innovation performance.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 38-43 [
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The Effect of Social Relationship on Farmers’ Income in the Process of Marketization——Based on CFPS Data
HE Ling-xiao, ZHANG Zhong-gen
This paper, in the perspective of strong and weak ties, builds the theoretical framework of how marketization affects social capital’s income returns, and do empirical test based on CFPS data. This study finds that marketization strengthens the effect of strong ties and weak ties on farmers’ total income, and the enhancement effect is larger on strong ties; marketization strengthens strong ties’ income return mainly on salary and transfer income, while the weak ties’ income return is mainly strengthened on the salary income.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 44-49 [
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An Efficiency Evaluation of Chinese Direct Investment in Africa——Based on Super Efficiency Model of DEA
TIAN Ze ,GU Xin ,YANG Xin-yuan
This paper focused on the evaluation of China’s direct investment in Africa efficiency, used super efficiency model of DEA, chose top 20 host countries in aspect of China’s investment in Africa (2008-2014) for the empirical study, to reflect the difference and changing trends of the efficiency of China's investment in Africa. Results showed that: Chinese efficiency of investment in most Africa’s countries is on a low level. And there are large national differences in investment efficiency. And investment efficiency in most countries increased steadily. In addition, China’s direct investment in Africa presents convergence and space centralization effect. There is some enlightenment and suggestion: adjust the investment scale, optimize the investment location choice, take effective investment risk prevention and control strategy, implement localization strategy, enhance the capacity of investment industrial concentration, improve the investment environment in Africa, increase the utilization level of the host country investment.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 50-55 [
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Transmission Mechanism of Production Factors Characteristics Evolution to Export Instability
LIN Si-yu,HUANG Fan-hua,XUE Ye-fei
This paper based on the theory of factor endowments and export fluctuations equilibrium, builds the three stage model, and on this basis using 36 countries builds a 24 years multinational panel data, examines the labor factor price evolution, capital factor price evolution impact on export instability. It is found that in developing countries the larger price change of labor and capital elements the export fluctuations performance more instability, in which the role of labor factor price more than capital elements. For developed countries, labor price change cannot significant influence on export instability; capital price change has a positive impact on export instability, but the impact is not obvious. This result shows that compared with developing countries, the export instability in developed countries have been out of the “factor driven”era.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 56-61 [
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A Multinational Comparative Study on the BRICS Financial Fragility ——A Factor Analysis
LIU Ye, HE Pei
This paper contracts an index of the BRICS’ financial fragility by the factor analysis method, based on fifteen indicators of financial fragility. Then, we use this index to carry out the multinational study on the BRICS. The empirical results show that the indexes of the BRICS are in various state, but in general tend to convergence. The trend of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa’ financial fragility are fluctuant, while China presents a relative stable situation. The micro-markets index of Brazil, India and South Africa play a key role, but in China and Russia the financial market and macro-economy index is more important. To cope with the obstacles and risks in the process of BRICS’ cooperation, the five countries is supposed to take advantage of each other and promote the further cooperation.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 62-67 [
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The Influence of Export on the Heterogeneous Enterprise Productivity ——An Empirical Study Based on Different Industries and Enterprise Categories
ZHAO Peng-hao, WANG Bao-shuang
Based on Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database, this paper tries to clarify the influence of export on the productivity between different industries and different enterprisescategories. The results show that when the export increases 1%, the productivity of domestic enterprise will increase by an average of 0.277%, while foreign companies will increase 0.284%. In empirical studies of different industries, we find that the marginal influence of export on textiles and textile clothing shoes and hats manufacturing enterprise is higher, respectively 0.299% and 0.303%, while the marginal influence of export on equipment manufacturing, communications equipment, computer and electronic manufacturing industries is relatively lower.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 68-73 [
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The Trade Effect of Coastal Free Trade Zones (Ftzs) in China——A Research Based on the Panel Data by Gravity Model
YE Xiu-qun, GUO Xiao-he
Based on the gravity model, this paper use panel data of Shanghai, Tianjin, Fujian and Guangdong from 2000 to 2012, and also uses system Generalized Method of Moments(GMM) to analyze the trade effect of FTZs in China. The studies show that: The trade effects of coastalFTZsare significant, and the trade effect of exportisstrengthened, trade effect of importisunaltered; The FTZspromote South-South and North-South trade, but the promotion of export to developing countries is not significant.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 74-79 [
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An Empirical Research on Efficiency and Deadweight Loss in Power Industry Based on the Reformation of Electricity System
KONG Ling-cheng,OUYANG Lu-lu, LI Zhong
The aim of Reformation of electricity system is to keep both the scale of natural monopoly and efficiency of competition. To calculate the industrial efficiency and the social welfare can estimate whether the reformation succeed or not. The paper studied the impact of reformation on electric power industry efficiency by applying DEA method, observed efficiency change by using Malmquist index and calculated Harberger Triangle and X-inefficiency to measure the degree of deadweight loss. The results show that efficiency of power industry hasn’t improved and the degree of deadweight loss caused by monopoly continues to rise after reformations. This paper puts forward to the way to introduce competition according to the results, and gives the feasible suggestions to enhance both scale benefit and competition efficiency for power system.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 80-85 [
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Vertical Specialization, Industrial Structure Change and China’s Industrial Economic Growth Pattern Transformation
XIAO Yao,YANG Xiao-mei
By the use of the input-output method of measuring the level of china’s participation in international vertical specialization, and taking the contribution rate of total factor productivity to the contribution rate of the industrial total production value as the measurement index of the development way of China’s industrial economy. From two aspects-the whole, sub-sectors, the paper made a case study on the impact of China’s participation in international vertical specialization and industrial structure change on the development way of China’s industrial economy from 2001 to 2013.The results of the quantitative illustrate that, in general, the relationship between vertical specialization and China’s industrial economic growth pattern transformation takes on an inverted “U” curve significantly. The initial stage of participation in vertical specialization can be beneficial to China’s industrial economic growth pattern transformation, but the deepening of participation in vertical specialization can also restrain China’s industrial economic growth pattern transformation.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 86-91 [
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A Study on the Influence of Industrial Structure Adjustment on the Export Intensity Based on the Theil Index
ZHAI Shi-jun, ZHAO Lei
Industrial structureadjustment has an important influence on the preference of city exports. The paper analyzed 285 city data from 2004 to 2012, then the rationality of industrial structure of the Theil index shows a fluctuation trend and eastern city of Theil index is significantly lower, so that the rationality of industrial structure is batter in eastern city. In addition, through empirical analysis, it is found that the Theil index of industrial structure on export intensity is significantly negative, so the industrial structure rationalization has a positive effect on export trade; also Eastern and central city industrial structure rationality have a positive correlation with the export intensity, but the west of the city is not significant.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 92-97 [
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A Dynamic Analysis of Industrial Convergence Based on the Logistic Model——A Case Study of Primary Industry and Tertiary Industry of Sichuan Province
ZHANG Rong-guang, GAO Yu-xing, YANG Qu
Industrial convergence is an inevitable trend of economic restructuring. This paper sets up the dynamic equilibriummodel of industrial convergence which based on the Logistic modelto explore the dynamic relationship between primary industry and tertiary industry, as well as various factors that affect the industrial convergenceby analyzing related data from 2000 to 2015 of SichuanProvince. The research shows that there is a strong positive interaction between the primary industry and tertiary industry of SichuanProvince, which can promote mutual development. However, the positive impact of the tertiary industry on primary industry is more significant, especially in the wholesale, retail and the financial sector.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 98-102 [
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103
The Effect of Value-Added Tax on Total Factor Productivity Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis——A Comment on Improvement of China’s Value-Added Tax System
JIANG Yan-feng,JIANG Yan-fang
This paper adopts the method proposed by Kumbhakar and Lovell(2000), decompose total factor productivity into technical efficiency, technology progress efficiency and scale efficiency, based on stochastic frontier model and using the translog production function, this paper analyses the relationship between the proportion of value added tax and each component of total factor productivity according to China’s 29 provinces’ data in 1994-2011.The results show, impact of China's value-added tax on total factor productivity is complex, The increase of the proportion of value added tax can improve technical efficiency, but is not conducive to the technology progress efficiency and scale efficiency. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis and effect of VAT expansion policy, when further improve the value-added tax system, policy makers should pay more attention to its influence on total factor productivity, For example, expand scope of offset for value-added tax on technology research and development, exert adjustment effect of value-added tax on the specialized division of labor.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 103-108 [
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Pyramid Structure,Marketization Process and Dynamics Adjustment of Ownership Structure
WAN Li-quan
This paper analyses determinants of pyramid structure and marketization process on adjustment of ownership structure. The results show that: firstly,the influences of pyramid structure on ownership structure have asymmetric inhibitory effect.Pyramid level inhibits ultimate controllers to reduce share.When pyramid level is longer,ultimate shareholder is reluctant to reduce its stake.There are no significant correlation between pyramid chain and ownership dilution.Reduction effects of pyramid structure on ownership structure mainly rely on pyramid level rather than pyramid chain.Secondly,marketization process helps to ownership dilution.More and more ultimate shareholders reduce shares with the deepness of marketization.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 109-114 [
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The Effects of Elitism Education System on China’s Social Mobility
WANG Xue-long,YANG Wen
This paper analyzes the effects of China’s Elitism education system on social mobility and arrived at the following main conclusions: the Elitism education system reduced China’s social mobility; the influences of Elitism education system on poor families are heavier than that on relatively richer families; education explains13% of China’s inter-generational income correlation; education and social network are two channels of inter-generational mobility, which are more important than health and culture. In order to improve the social mobility of China, Chinese government has to focus on the early-stage education, the reduction of Elitism in elementary and middle school education, and the fairness in school enrollment.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 115-120 [
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Influences of Administrator Characteristics on the Behaviors of AgriculturalCorporate Social Responsibility——Based on the Data from Five Provinces
ZHANG Sheng-rong
In terms of Structural Equation Modeling, the corporate social responsibilities can be divided into three parts----inner responsibility, outer responsibility and public responsibility. After a careful inspection upon the reliability and creditability of the questionnaire,the influences of administrators’ personal characteristics on the corporate social responsibility behavior have been thoroughly investigated with the methods of one-way variance analysis. The results show that administrators’education levels and attitudes to social responsibilityhave obvious influences on certain special dimensions of social responsibility;while age, gender and religious beliefs pose little influences on corporate social responsibilities.Therefore, to level up the corporate social responsibilities,it is important to put emphasis on the roles of administrators,to improve administrators’ quality and to correct administrators’attitudes towards corporate social responsibilities.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 121-126 [
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127
Fiscal Decentralization, Income Gap and Citizen Happiness——An Empirical Study Based on CGSS2010
NI Zhi-liang, CHEN Yong-li, YIN Jin-peng
Based on the data of CGSS2010, this paper usesGeneralized Linear Latent and Mixed Models (GLLAMMs) to conduct empirical studyto analyze the relationships among fiscal decentralization, income gap and citizen happiness. It is found thatfiscal decentralization has different impact on citizen happiness on urban-rural and regional level. And there exits an “inverted-U shape” association between urban-rural income gap and citizen happiness, but a negative association on regional level.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 127-132 [
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Local Government Credit Risk Assessment andCountermeasures Based on Element Extension Model
LI Yi-chao,LIAO Zhi-ling,DU Yi-cheng
Tthe paper established a credit risk assessment model based on the idea of element extension, and then conducted an empirical study by economic and fiscal datas of 31 provinces in China in 2011. The empirical result shows that there are 24 local government in speculative grade and 7 in investment grade.Specifically,there are 22 local government in high-risk areas,2 in moderate-risk,2 in low-risk and 5 riskless.It needs efforts from ministry of finance,investors and local goverments to control the credit risk of local government.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 133-138 [
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139
The Empirical Research of Currency Substitution in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan Based on the Real Money Demand Function
SHI Jian-xun, JIN Zheng
This paper aims to investigate the presence of currency substitution in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan for the period 2001 to 2013, based on the currency demand theory, using RMB as anchor currencies by constructing the Cointegration Equations of real money demand. This paper finds the presence of currency substitution in Hong Kong and Macau, but not in Taiwan because the real money demand functions are stable in Hong Kong and Macau, but not in Taiwan. Based on the findings, this paper finally put forward relevant policy recommendations in 4 aspects, constructing the Greater China Currency Area, constructing the exchange rate coordination mechanism and the risk pre-warning and the crisis rescue mechanism, and promoting the currency substitution process of RMB in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 139-144 [
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Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic FluctuationsFrom a Perspective of Wholesale Financial Markets
GUO Qiang
From the perspective of wholesale financial markets, using the balance sheet of commercial banks, the paper established a two-period model and analyzed by comparative statics the intrinsic mechanism of financial frictions magnified by the bank run, thus interpreted the relationship between financial frictions and macroeconomic fluctuations. The analysis shows that, the increasing financial frictions coming from the wholesale financial markets will influence macroeconomic fluctuations, and excessive connections of financial institutions will amplify the effect of a shock.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 145-149 [
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The Study of the Efficiency of China’sCurrent Monetary Policy Regulation——An Empirical Analysis Based on data from the Last 17 years
CHENG Gui ,WAN Jie-qiu,LI Meng
Based on quarterly data from the year 1998 to 2014, this paper adopts stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) which belongs to transcendental functions to estimate the true level of the efficiency of monetary policy. Empirical studies show that economic growth and price stability have the equal weight within the integrated variable of China's monetary policy. Compared to interest rate, money supply M2 has greater impact on the integrated target variable of monetary policy. The overall level of China's monetary policy efficiency is not high, the regulation effect of monetary policy has not been fully used, and there is a big gap between the preset objectives of the policy and the actual results. In order to improve the efficiency of monetary policy regulation in China, the policy regulation should be adjusted in the following aspects: (1) to reshape of the monetary policy framework and introduce flexible inflation targeting within the existing monetary policy framework. (2) To further promote the reform of interest rates and dredge transmission mechanism of monetary policy. (3) To deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, introducing more market-based mechanism.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 150-154 [
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155
Land Finance and the Circle Trap of Local Government Debt — Based on Motivation of Issuance and Cost of Issuance
SI Hai-ping,WEI jian,LIU Xiao-ge
The article investigated the likely cause of the local government debt crisis. We use the panel data of 439 prefecture-level cities quasi-municipal bond between 2009-2012 as proxy variables of local government funding vehicle debt, investigating the relationship among the issuance and the cost of local government funding vehicle debt and land finance. we found that the less land-transferring fees is , the more local government inclines to issue bond, the higher interest rates on government debt is, the more likely a debt crisis will appear. Further studies show that the city will issue large amounts of debt in case of increasing financial expenditure, and then the city will be at greater risk of debt repayment and facing the higher interest rates on government debt because of the less land revenue and weaker solvency. This kind of area which is lack of land revenue will roll over old debts with new borrowing on account of debt repayment requirements. In this way, the local government may fall into debt trap. Because the motivation of bond-issuing and the debt paying ability had almost no change, issue sizes lack of efficient control and hard budget constraints, limiting local government's financing and debt replacement way cannot solve the basic problems of local fiscal crisis.
2016 Vol. 33 (4): 155-160 [
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