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Economic Survey

	2014 Vol.31 Issue.2 Published 2014-03-14

Original articles

	12	Infrastructure, Spatial Spillover Effects and Industrial Efficiency——Based on the Comparison of Bohai Rim, Yangtze Delta and Zhujiang Delta Economic Circle
		SHI Xue-gui, SHI Jie
		Based on the urban data during 2001-2011, by applying AHP and cross-DEA, the authors evaluate the cities’ infrastructure levels and industrial efficiency values in Bohai Rim, Yangtze Delta and Zhujiang Delta economy circle. Then, with spatial econometric model introduced from spatial spillover theory, the authors examined the influence of infrastructure on regional industrial efficiency. The results show that the infrastructure’s promote effect on local industrial efficiency and the spatial spillover effect on nearby cities are both significant and positive, and these effects of various items of infrastructure are different in the three regions. Transportation infrastructure effects on the industrial efficiency are dominant in Bohai Rim. Communication and energy infrastructures are respectively dominant in Yangtze Delta and Zhujiang Delta. Both transportation infrastructure and communication infrastructure have positive spatial spillover effect in Bohai Rim, Yangtze Delta economy circle, while communication and energy infrastructures have positive spatial spillover effect in Zhujiang Delta economy circle.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 12-18 [Abstract] ( 3344 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1006KB] ( 2002 )

	19	An Analysis of Space Difference of Provincial Large-middle Industrial Enterprise R&D Efficiency and the Influencing Factors
		HU Hong-li, LI Xiao
		Based on 2006-2010 China’s 31 provincial data, this paper first uses SE-DEA model to measure large-middle industrial enterprise R&D efficiency, then with the regional level as foundation, constructs spatial econometric model to examine the effect of R&D input, enterprise scale, enterprise ownership structure, enterprise performance and FDI on R&D efficiency. The results show that provinces which have effective R&D efficiency are increasing year by year, but the distribution is uneven; R&D efficiency depends more and more on R&D capital investment; the enterprise scale and FDI are positively related to R&D efficiency; enterprise ownership structure and enterprise performance show up the negative correlation with R&D efficiency; the gap of R&D efficiency of China’s large-middle industrial enterprise is widening, and the R&D spillover effect is obvious.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 19-24 [Abstract] ( 2849 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 854KB] ( 1949 )

	25	An Analysis of the Regional Difference of Housing Price Change Effect on Macro Economy
		ZHAO Hua-ping, ZHANG Suo-di
		In order to discuss the different effects of housing price change on different regions which are different in economy level, housing price, consumption attitude and housing investment demand, this paper systematically analyzes the effect of housing price change on consumption expenditure, consumption level, per GDP, per disposable income and housing investment. By empirical research on the panel VAR model for housing price change on macro economy based on 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 2000 to 2011, it is concluded that there are different responding processes of consumption expenditure, consumption level, per GDP, per disposable income on housing price change, but there is no regional difference in the responding process of housing investment on housing price change. Therefore, local government should analyze the effect of housing price change on macro economy in accordance with practice so as to exert the effective role of real estate industry on national economy.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 25-31 [Abstract] ( 3093 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1039KB] ( 2136 )

	32	An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Ability of ProfessionalFarmer Cooperative Entrepreneurs and Its Influencing Factors
		HU Ping-bo
		The ability of the cooperative entrepreneurs can affect cooperative performance. Based on the data investigation of 204 cooperative entrepreneurs in Jiangxi Province, and with the analysis method of principal components, the paper extracts 4 main elements of the cooperative entrepreneur’s ability and 7 main elements of its influencing factors. By applying canonical correlation analysis model and BP neural network model, the paper finds that there is high correlation between the ability of the cooperative entrepreneurs and its influencing factors. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 32-37 [Abstract] ( 3093 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 921KB] ( 2125 )

	38	An Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of NGO Microfinance towards Farmers’ Borrowing Decision and Amount ——A Research on 822 Peasant Households of 7 Counties in Hebei Province
		LI Fei-ya
		By using paired sample multiple choice Logit model and NGO survey data, this paper analyzes the borrowing decision and amount of poor farmers and the influencing factors. The conclusion is that by accepting NGO microfinance, the frequency and total borrowing amount of the poor farmers decreases significantly while the single household borrowing amount is relatively on the rise, and the loan way changes from private loans to rural credit cooperatives or others. The empirical study shows that except for the householder individual characteristic, family composition and other intrinsic factors that the affecting recipients borrowing decisions, the supplying status of rural finance, also greatly influence the farmers' borrowing behaviors. Due to the financial restraint, formal financial institutions create higher threshold, and then private loans become the main supplier. Therefore, NGO microfinance plays a “booster” effect on the loan behavior changing.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 38-43 [Abstract] ( 2951 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 925KB] ( 1933 )

	44	An Empirical Study of the Relationship among the Land-lost Farmers’ Individual Age, Productivity and Continued Viability
		WANG Zeng
		Because of the urbanization process, the scale of cities needs to increase, and land acquisition has become the important way in this process. The binary attribute of the farmland’s property rights, the rent-seeking motivation of the regional government and the endogeneity of the economic development achievements have given birth to a large group of land-lost farmers who are unable to keep their life going just on the land requisition compensation. Therefore, the government has to take measures to guarantee the interests, the rights and the settlement of those farmers. To study the productivity of the land-lost farmers can provide some theoretical evidence for making policies. The paper starts with the influencing factors of productivity before losing their land, then studies the productivity on the decline or on the rise under the condition of equal technical advancement and combing with the main factors such as region and age, so as to give constructive proposals for the guarantee of their continued viability after losing their land.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 44-49 [Abstract] ( 2793 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 815KB] ( 2015 )

	50	Impact of Agricultural Modernization, Population Growth, Trade Policies on the International Competitiveness of Agricultural Products——An Empirical Analysis Based on Co-integration and VEC Model
		YAO Wen
		In recent years, agricultural trade deficit has caused widespread concern about the international competitiveness of China's agricultural products. Based on the data of Chinese and the world agricultural production and trade from 1986 to 2010, with the guide of Michael Porter’s Diamond model theory, the paper uses principal component analysis, co-integration and vector error correction model to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural modernization, population growth and trade policy on the international competitiveness of China’s agricultural products. The results show that the slow progress of China’s agricultural modernization, continued population growth and the unequal opening up of agricultural products have led to the decline in international competitiveness of China’s agricultural products. Therefore, we should take full and flexible use of WTO rules to create a favorable international and domestic environment for the development of Chinese agriculture and the international competitiveness of agricultural products, meanwhile continue to adhere to the family planning and population control policy.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 50-56 [Abstract] ( 2990 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1038KB] ( 1846 )

	57	Processing Trade and Wage Inequality:Analyses Based on China’s Industrial Data
		WANG Huai-min
		The SS theorem based on HO model is suitable for explaining the wage inequality in the context of general trade, and the SS theorem based on intermediate goods trade can be used for the interpretation of wage gap caused by the intermediate goods trade. Thus we need to distinguish general trade and processing trade when we analyze the relationship between foreign trade and wage inequality. We use China’s 29 industries from 2005 to 2009 as samples, and divide them into technology-intensive and non-technology-intensive industries, estimating the effect of the processing trade on wage gap. The result shows that the processing trade of non-technology-intensive industries increases the wage inequality, but the processing trade of technology-intensive industries has no significant effect on wage gap. Moreover, capital intensity, technological change and scale have no influence on wage inequality both for technology-intensive industries and non-technology-intensive industries.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 57-62 [Abstract] ( 2780 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 859KB] ( 1892 )

	63	International Vertical Specialization and China/s Manufacturing Industry Upgrading——Based on the Net Value-added Proportion of 16 Industrial Sectors
		LIU Lei
		With Hummels’(2001)method, we calculate the VSS and the net value-added proportion of 16 manufacturing industrial sectors and empirically study the relationship between them. The results show that the VSS of manufacturing industry and 16 industrial sectors in 7 years increase gradually, which indicates that Chinese participation of vertical specialization is getting deeper. But the net value-added proportion of manufacturing industry and 16 industrial sectors presents that the change lowers after increasing. The participation of international vertical specialization promoted China’s inter-industry upgrading. But the participation also caused the decrease of the net value-added proportion and did not promote the intra-industry upgrading. China’s manufacturing industry still locates in the low-end links of the global value chain.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 63-67 [Abstract] ( 2896 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 775KB] ( 1933 )

	68	Productivity Effect of Service Foreign Direct Investment and the Divergence in Different Service Industries in China
		YUAN Xiao-neng, YANG Xiang-yang
		The paper analyzes the effect of Service Foreign Direct Investment (SFDI) on the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of service industries with the data of 1999~2002 and 2004~2009, on the basis of estimating TFP of service industries in China. Furthermore, the paper studies the effect of SFDI on the service sectors whose TFP growth rate increases and the service sectors whose TFP growth rate decreases. The results show that SFDI have a greater effect on the service sectors whose TFP growth rate increases than the service sectors whose TFP growth rate decreases.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 68-73 [Abstract] ( 3235 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 820KB] ( 1955 )

	74	A Research on Affecting Factors of Firm-University-Institute Linkage——Dynamic Panel Analysis Based on Two-step System GMM
		XU Yi, XING Fei
		This paper examines the affecting factors of linkage, using panel data analysis on China’s large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises. The final results are as followed: in the long run, firm-university-institute linkage will be strengthened by the extent of the long-term innovation capacity and the government’s policy on financing R&D and the cooperation relationship which was established earlier; there is significant discrepancy on affecting factors between institution and university linkage with enterprises; the linkage between institution and enterprises will be strengthened by the short-term profit that the firm cares; the linkage between university and enterprises is significantly strengthened by the corporation’s absorptive capacity, but weakened by the short-term profit that the firm is paying attention to.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 74-79 [Abstract] ( 3824 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 940KB] ( 2149 )

	80	New Firm Formation and Employment Growth——An Empirical Study Based on China’s Real Estate Industry
		LI Hong-ya
		Based on China’s real estate industry data covering the 1997-2011 period, the paper studies the effects of new firm formation on employment growth. The results show that: (1) the new firms formation in the real estate industry generates strong positive employment effects at the current period; (2) the new firm formation has positive effects as well as negative effects at the subsequent periods, but has strong positive effects as a whole, and the indirect supply effects are more significant; (3) in the long run, the effect is approximately a U-shaped structure, and the lowest point of the effect will be reached at about 4 or 5 years after the new firms have been started. The empirical results are closely connected with the reality of the real estate industry development and the state of the new firm formation.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 80-85 [Abstract] ( 2620 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 666KB] ( 2023 )

	86	A Research on Consumer Channel Free-riding Behavior: from the Perspective of Experiential Learning
		TU Hong-wei, YAN Ming
		On the basis of experiential Leaning, the paper explores the influential factors of consumer channel free-riding behavior from external environment and experiential learning knowledge. The empirical results show that: virtual reference groups, channel attraction, self-efficacy and switching cost have significant effect on channel free-riding behavior; self-efficacy has a partial mediator effect between virtual reference and channel free-riding behavior; switching cost plays a complete mediator role between channel attraction and channel free-riding behavior. The research conclusion provides much enlightenment for enterprise in multi-channel environment on how to effectively make full use of channel free-rider behavior.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 86-91 [Abstract] ( 2815 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 888KB] ( 1783 )

	92	Female Managers, Overconfidence and Financing Preference——Evidence from Chinese Capital Market
		LI Shi-gang
		Female managers generally exist in the listed companies, affecting the company’s investment and financing decisions .Using a sample of Chinese listed firms in 2007~2011, this paper examines the relations between female managers’ overconfidence and financing preference. The results show that female managers have significantly decreased the probability of corporate overconfidence, and there is a significantly negative relation with the investment-cash flow sensitivity, after controlling the influence of female managers, overconfident behaviors increase sensitivity of corporate investment to cash flow, strengthen internal financing preference. This paper provides the empirical evidence on the managers’ heterogeneity and the governing of the female.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 92-96 [Abstract] ( 2867 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 656KB] ( 1948 )

	101	The Ultimate Shareholder’s Property Right Nature, the Pyramid Level and Accounting Conservatism
		LIANG Li-hui, LAN FEN, ZHANG Xue-hua
		We study the relationship of the level of the pyramid and accounting conservatism and analyze the impact of the ultimate controlling shareholder of property rights nature on this relationship using the sample of companies with the ultimate controlling shareholder and the pyramid shareholding structures in Shenzhen and Shanghai securities markets during 2004-2010.We find out that the level of the pyramid is positively related to accounting conservatism and there is significant difference between state-owned and non-state-owned listed companies. The revise of company law, securities law and accounting standards plays an important role in improving accounting conservatism. The study concluded that the level of the pyramid reflects the behavior of control shareholders, so government regulation and corporate governance should take full account of the nature of property rights of the pyramid option arrangements and the ultimate controlling shareholder’s impact on the company.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 101-107 [Abstract] ( 3187 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 867KB] ( 1776 )

	120	Threshold Co-integration on Agricultural Product Prices Dynamics in Open Economy
		JIAO Na
		Under the condition of open economy, the paper explores short-run dynamic behavior and long-run trend of price in domestic agricultural products by a double-threshold vector error correction model with 2005-2012 monthly data. The empirical result shows the non-linear adjustment in the secular trend and estimates the threshold effect. The regression of this model confirms the nonlinear relationship between domestic agricultural price and RMB exchange rate in a long-run equilibrium. When the difference between agricultural price and RMB exchange rate is up to the threshold, the response of both agricultural price and RMB exchange rate will change sharply with the opposite direction and return to a long-run equilibrium. However, if it is lower than the threshold, the market force will be too limited, which will requires the government intervention.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 120-125 [Abstract] ( 3035 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 805KB] ( 2075 )

	126	Level Estimation and Empirical Study of the Gold Value of Human Capital
		WU Li-jun
		The theory of new-economic growth points out that human capital is as important as physical capital in economic growth. But many empirical tests do not support this conclusion. We believe that there must be the optimal level in the investment of human capital based on the wealth constraints of the social total population and the entire society. The paper uses the panel data of 1978~2010 to estimates the value of in the accumulation function of human capital. Some conclusions are made as follows: first, the gold value to maximize the whole society output is 20.85 years and the gold value to maximize personal gains is 14.63 years; second, the private sector has no interest in investing high-level human capital; third, the increase of economy and human capital stock are not always consistent when the proportion of the elderly people has significantly increased.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 126-131 [Abstract] ( 2901 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 910KB] ( 1774 )

	132	Government Spending and Economic Volatility in China—— Based on Bayesian DSGE Model
		CHU Er-ming, XU Xian-pu
		This paper analyzes the impact of government spending expansion on aggregate economy in China by using new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and Bayesian estimation technique subject to Chinese 1999-2011 quarterly data. The results show that the expansion of government spending can not only increase output, but also induce a crowding-out effect on private consumption in the short term. Meanwhile, the dynamic responses of aggregate economy to demand shocks are significantly higher than that to supply shocks. Finally, by using sensitivity analysis it proves that the regulatory effects of government spending under the low consumption habit preference are significantly better than the effects under the high consumption habit preferences. Therefore, reducing the scale of government spending and consumption habits preference is a feasible way to achieve the balanced development of Chinese economy.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 132-139 [Abstract] ( 3217 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2306KB] ( 5368 )

	140	An Empirical Research on the Effect of Inter-regional Expansion on X-efficiency of City Commercial Banks in China
		LIU Hui-hao, YANG Yang, JIN Lei
		Based on the Stochastic Frontier Approach, the paper measures X-efficiency of 15 city commercial banks from 2007 to 2011, and makes an empirical study on the inter-regional expansion effect on the city commercial banks’ X-efficiency. We find out that inter-regional expansion can help to increase banks’ X-efficiency, but the effect is not significant. The reason probably is the short history of inter-regional expansion in city commercial banks. Results also indicate a significant positive relationship between bank loan-to-deposit ratio and X-efficiency. It suggests that city commercial banks can increase X-efficiency by improving asset management capacity.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 140-145 [Abstract] ( 2971 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 832KB] ( 2120 )

	146	Research of the Managers’ Manipulation on Exercise Price
		CHEN Yan-yan
		This paper investigates the managers’ manipulation on exercise price. The managers manipulate exercise price by timing the announcement of stock option plan draft, which induces the decrease of stock price before the announcement and the increase after that. Furthermore, the tendency of manipulated exercise price is stronger when the managers obtain more stock options and the corporate governance is weaker. The manipulated exercise price leads to negative economic consequence by decreasing 24 months and 36 months long-term shareholder wealth for more than 20%, 25% respectively.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 146-152 [Abstract] ( 2940 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1004KB] ( 2320 )

	153	Research of the Impact of Policy Finance on Agricultural Economic Growth
		WAN Zhong, ZHU Zhe-yi
		Based on seven areas, including East China, Central China, North China, Southern China and southwest, northwest, northeast regions, this passage builds an input-output basic and expanded model and empirically analyzes the influence of the agricultural financial policy on economic growth of agriculture and some agriculture growth factors, such as agricultural labor, capital, farm machinery, water conservancy and so on. Through the above arguments, it is to prove whether the rural policy finance has effect on agricultural economic growth and whether the effect shows regional differences. Estimation results show that: policy finance has some influence on the growth of agricultural economy, but the effect is not always significant. The influence on production factors reflect regional differences: in Central China, the labor factor shows significant crowding-in effect while in farmland scale, the effect is more significant in North China; in agricultural machinery, the results are significant in East China and northeast region; and in the rural commercial finance productivity, apparent crowding-out effect is showed in Southern China, in southwest and northeast regions. This paper argues that in order to maximize the promotion, we have to adapt to its own local conditions.
		2014 Vol. 31 (2): 153-160 [Abstract] ( 2716 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1014KB] ( 1616 )

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