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Economic Survey
2012 Vol.1 Issue.6
Published 2012-12-01
Original Articles
1
The Impact of Agricultural Labor Reallocation on Regional Economic Convergence——An Extended Study and Empirical Analysis of China based on Mas-Colell and Razin Model
ZHOU Guo-fu, LI Jing
This paper studies the impact of agricultural labor reallocation on regional economic convergence with dual model based on Mas-Colell and Razin by testing China's provincial panel data from 1983 to 2010. The results show there is no significant impact of the agricultural labor reallocation on regional economic convergence from 1983 to 2010. However, there is an inverted U relation between productivity growth and the initial non agricultural labor share since 2000. This implies the impact of labor reallocation on convergence is emerging.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 1-5 [
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3736
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More Tracking Movements of Deposits and Loans Focus in China Banking
WANG Xiao-fang, WANG Rui-jun, HU Xiao-bing
This paper researches the national banking’s gravity center of deposit and loan between1991 to2009. The empirical analysis finds an unbalanced spatial distribution of China’s gravity center of deposit and loan, especially in the credit. The southeast accounts for great proportion, making southeast and northwest unbalanced degree more serious. It is poposed central government further increase the credit tilt to adjust China’s unbalanced development of regional economy.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 6-10 [
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2937
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11
Process Trade, Producer Services Industry and Services Industry’s Structure Upgrade: An Empirical Study based on the Data of the Yangtze River Delta Region
PEI Zhen, BI Yu-Jiang
Based on the empirical analysis of the data from the Yangtze River Delta Region, this paper constructs a specialization index to indicate the division extent and defines the bound of services industry with a panel data model including technical progress, income level, urbanization rate, human resource level and process trade variables to analyze the influence that process trade’s development on service industry’s structure upgrade. The empirical results show that China’s process trade restricts the development of producer services industry. Furthermore, the lag behind of process of producer services industry blockes services industry’s structure upgrade.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 11-16 [
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17
An Analysis on the Relationship between Urbanization, Industrialization and Financial Development——A Case Study of the Central Plains Economic Zone
SUN Chang-qing
This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between urbanization, industrialization and financial development in Henan Province with data between 1978 and 2010 by quantitative methods of VAR model, Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition. The results show there is long-term equilibrium relationship between the three series. The industrialization is the granger causality on urbanization. Financial development has a role on industrialization and urbanization, and the impacts increase over time. Policy advices proposed on empirical research
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 17-21 [
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22
An Empirical Study on the Influence of China's Rural Financial Development on ConsumptionDemand of Farmers——Based on the Series Data from 1979 to 2010
HU Bang-yong, ZHANG Bing
Based on the time series data from 1979 to 2010, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between rural finance development and rural consumption expenditure. The results show that disposable income, rural financial efficiency and rural financial scale significantly affect farmers’ consumption expenditure, but the influence in turn reduces rural financial efficiency and rural financial scale impact on farmers' consumption expenditure in the long term with less significant short term effect The degree of monetization has little effect on farmers’ consumption expenditure.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 22-26 [
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3143
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27
Personal Factors of Migration of Rural Labor ——Based on the Survey Data of Farmers and Rural Migrant Workers in Henan Province
FAN Ming
This paper analyzes and explores the personal factors affecting the migration with data from the survey conducted in Henan Province, China by sampling the migrant workers and rural farmers. It is found that age, gender, and marriage status jointly affect farmer’s migration. The impacts of other factors are only moderate economically. Some factors, such as education level and urban working skills, do not affect farmers’ migration very much, but significantly affect labor market performance of the rural migrant workers.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 27-31 [
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32
A Study of Grain Farmers Internet Use Behavior and Influence Factors——An Empirical Research Based on Henan Grain Farmers
XIAO Kai-hong
This paper analyzes the willingness and behaviors of gain farmer to use Internet with a questionnaire survey of 367 grain farmers in henan province. It is found that farmers show a high willingness and low application level in internet use. Farmers’ characteristics, grain size, market behaviors and the coverage rate of internet are main factors affecting farmers' access to internet technology.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 32-36 [
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2927
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37
An Analysis of Correlation between China’s International TradeStructure and Carbon Emissions
Wulijitu
With the approach of input output SKYLINE analysis, this paper investigates the correlation between China’s international trade structure and CO
2
emission. It is found that: ①China’s trade structure in 2002 and 2007 shows common characteristics of pollution deficit in international Labor Division; ②at the sectoral level, CO
2
emissions embodied in net exports flow from light industries & traditional industries in 2002 to High Tech & heavy chemical industries in 2007; ③ continuing impacts of China’s export on environment mainly come from the fact that exports in final demand continued to rise in the proportion, rather than the presupposition that the pollution intensity of export trade would be higher than that of domestic demand.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 37-41 [
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42
Influences of U.S. Economic Imbalances on the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
ZHOU Ke, XU Xin-xin
Based on PFS model, this paper examines influences of U.S. economic imbalances on the U.S. dollar exchange rate from the perspective of political economy by constructing a binary dependent variable (BDV) model. It is found that the influence of the internal economic imbalances or external imbalances to the exchange rate is uncertain. However, when internal and external economic imbalances existing at the same time, depreciation is most likely to happen. The empirical results support the above argumentation. When the U.S. economic internal and external imbalances emerges at the same time, the probability of the dollar depreciation or the U S government intervention in the foreign exchange market will increase by 27 percentage. This indicates that the U S government externalizes the internal problems through affecting exchange rates.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 42-45 [
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46
The Effect of Outward Foreign Direct Investmenton on Home Country’s Economic Growth——The Empirical Study from Panel Data of Provincial Level
FENG Cai, CAI Ze-xiang
This paper studies the effect of outward foreign direct investment to home country’s economic growth with co integration and error correction model test by analyzing the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2010. It is found that there are long-term equilibrium relationship between OFDI and economic growth in the whole eastern and middle panel data, while there is no co integration in the western panel data. The regression based on random effect model shows that the coefficient of eastern panel data is bigger than the whole and middle panel data. Error correction model test predicts that the long-term effect is much bigger than the short term effect.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 46-51 [
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52
The Interaction of Cultural Export Structure and Industrial Structure in China
ZHU Wen-jing, GU Jiang, ZHU Ting
By analyzing statistical data of 1997-2008, this paper studies the interaction of cultural export structure and industrial structure in China with Co integration tests and Granger causality tests. It is found that cultural goods are in the dominant statue of cultural trade structure. In term of cultural service trade, conventional cultural service increases fast with a feature of low value added. There’s obvious causal relationship between cultural industry and second industry with unstable co-integration relationship. Proposals for optimizing the cultural export structure and upgrading the industrial structures are made.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 52-56 [
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57
A Research on Industrial Clusters Leaping Upgrading: From the Perspective of Double Chains Synergy of Leading Enterprises in Industrial Clusters
DAI Wen-bin, MU Jing, YI Xun-hua
Based on management synergy theory, this paper constructs a theoretical framework of industrial clusters` leaping upgrading with the arguementation that leading enterprises in clusters should help industrial clusters achieve leaping upgrading by pursuing double chains (global value chain and national value chain) synergy with the unification of synergy object, synergy path, synergy mechanism and synergy conditions.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 57-61 [
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2973
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62
Customer Segmentation and Loyalty in Online Insurance Industry——Based on SOM Neural
LI Qi, CUI Rui
The paper develops the customer segmentation index system in online insurance industry with SOM method by building customer segmentation model of cluster customers to six types, namely, gold customers, important customers, retain customers, maintaining customers, regular customers and other worthless customer. Further analysis is made on the loyalty of the most valuable two clusters of customers from the segmentation by customer loyalty index system and model with relevant marketing strategies.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 62-66 [
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67
What the Technological Alliance Bring to the Innovation of Automobile Industry in China
ZHANG Ming-shen
It is the newest trend to form the technological alliance in automobile industry in China. This paper focuses on the direct and indirect effect of technological alliance on the innovation performance of automobile industry in China. By analyzing whether these prerequisites are met and how some of them are violated with the sample data, it is concluded that technological alliance achieves net positive effect and points out that the leader in technological alliance gain positive effect of indirect influence from the followers while the members of the technical alliance gain net positive effect from both positive direct effect and negative indirect effect of the alliance.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 67-71 [
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72
A Study of China Reality TV in the Value Chain Transition
WEN Hu, HAN Xiao
This paper studies the dynamic changes of Reality TV industry by analyzing changing factors in value chains, including market, technology and system and the value chain structure of traditional Reality TV. With statistic data of China Reality TVs during 2005 to 2010, a comparative analysis of value chain changes of Reality TV is made accordingly. It is concluded that, the market of Reality TV is shrinking and value creation capacity is decreasing.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 72-76 [
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77
A Study on the Green Total Factor Productivity and Economic Growth of China Constrained by Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption——Analysis Based on an Expanded Solow Model
GUO Hui, DONG Ye
The traditional total factor productivity ignores the constrained problem of increasing carbon emissions as the undesired output. This paper estimates the green total factor productivity of China including the energy consumption and carbon emissions from 1978 to 2008, and develops an extended Solow model to find the contributing role and size of energy usage, carbon dioxide emissions and technological progress to economic growth. The results show that China’s economic growth is driven by high energy consumption and investment, and pay a high price for abundant carbon emissions; the technological progress efficiency little contributes to the overall positive effect of economic growth; the negative impact of carbon dioxide emission is more significant as a proxy for the environmental costs of economic growth.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 77-81 [
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82
The Relationship between CEO Characters and R&D Expenditure Based on Upper Echelon Theory
KANG Hua, WANG Lu-ping, KANG Jian
This paper investigates the impact of CEO characters on R&D expenditure with a pooled data sample of the 806 publicly listed Chinese companies for the period 2005-2008. It is found that CEO’s education, duality and political experience are significantly positive to R&D expenditure. But work experience of CEO such as technology, research and marketing of CEO is significantly negative to R&D expenditure.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 82-86 [
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87
An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Entrepreneurial Strategic Leadership, Decision Making Mechanism and Corporate Performance
LIU Jin, JIE Xiao-wen
This paper explores how entrepreneur strategic leadership influences enterprise performance by analzing China’s enterprises with the strategic decision making theory .The results show that strategic decision mechanism is an important factor when improving the enterprise performance. At the same time, entrepreneur strategic leadership has significantly positive effects on the strategic decision-making mechanism. The enterprise strategic decision mechanism is the intermediary variable when entrepreneur strategic leadership influencing enterprise performance.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 87-91 [
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92
A Study of Skill Structure Base on the Random Demand
LIAO Li-ping, LIU Hui-zhen, ZHANG Bi-xi
According to skill structures, the paper compares two skill structure models: 1. the cherry picking model, the capacity is increased by multi-skill workers to shift directly excess capacity from low-utilization stations to the high-utilization stations; 2. the skill chaining model, skills shape chain, and the capacity is increased by multi-skill workers to shift directly or indirectly excess capacity from low-utilization stations to the high-utilization stations. The optimization results show that when demand fluctuation in the production system is smaller, the total of skills is less in the cherry picking model; conversely, when demand fluctuation in the production system is bigger, the total of skills is smaller in the skill chaining model.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 92-96 [
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Framing Effects and Consumer’s Choice: the Effects of Consumer Knowledge and Product Promotion——Based on the Case of Extended Warranty Service
DONG Ling-li
This paper analyzes the influences of framing effects on consumer’s choice. and the moderator effect of consumers knowledge and product promotion by two between-groups design experiment. Results show that the influence of framing effects on consumer’s choice is significant. Consumer knowledge and products promotion play different roles under different framing work. t It is proposed that appropriate marketing strategies be made with these characteristics to push the sales of new product.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 97-100 [
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101
Supply Chain Coordination with Profit Sharing Contract under Risk-Aversion Assumption
WU Qiang, LIU Chun-ling, GUO Jun
This paper studies a manufacturer-dominated two-level supply chain both with risk-aversion preference by exploring the use of profit sharing contract for coordinating supply chains under the mean-variance (MV) decision framework. It is found that there exists a unique equilibrium of the Stackelberg game with profit sharing contract in the decentralized case. A numerical analysis indicates that the channel coordination is imposible in decentralization, there exisits supply chain efficiency loss under the risk-aversion assumption, the more risk-averse of the member, the less efficiency.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 101-106 [
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107
Dose Corporate Governance Affect Social Responsibility Information Disclosure——Empirical Evidence Based on Social Responsibility Reports
ZHANG Zheng-yong, JI Li, MAO Hong-tao
This paper empirically studies the influence of corporate governance on social responsibility information disclosure by sampling 1205 Social Responsibility Reports of listed companies from 2009 and 2011. The empirical evidences indicates that the corporate governance displays a positive effect on the social responsibility information disclosure, and the overall effect of corporate governance consists of the combined influence of ownership structure and management governance mechanisms. The other three governance mechanisms does not play significant role. It is proposed that improved corporate governance push social responsibility information disclosure.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 107-111 [
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112
Controlling Shareholders, Corporate Diversification and Market Valuation
YUAN Ling
The paper examines the value effects of corporate diversification with controlling shareholders by sampling listed firms from 2004 to 2008. It is found that corporate diversification is not necessarily harmful or beneficial for firms in economy transformation. However, the agency problem arising from the controlling shareholders’ divergence of control rights and ownership deteriorates the market valuation with regard to firm diversification especially when they have much more control rights.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 112-116 [
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117
Negative Eternality, Market Structure and“Private Enterprises Replaced by SOE”
ZHANG Hui, ZHAO Feng
The paper builds a game model amaong negative externality of production and market structure, the government, state enterprises and private enterprises.It is found that a partial privatization of SOE is the best strategy. But it is not the best choice to completely nationalize private enterprises. As the negative externality is not neglected, overprivatization will necessarily lead to replacement of private enterprises by SOE. It is a fine-tuning of the economic structure, not substitution of market role for resources allocation.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 117-121 [
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122
The Effect of Local Government Expenditure On Urban Residents Consumption In the Progress of Chinese Economic Transition:——An Empirical Study with Panel Data of Provinces from 1997 to 2009
CHEN Kai, XI Jing
This paper studies the effect of local government fiscal expenditure gross and structure on urban residents’ consumption by setting up an intratemporal substitution model of representative agent with Panel Data. The empirical results show that: (1)local government spending on administrative expenses has crowing-out effects on urban residents’ consumption; (2)government spending on economic and social aspects have crowding-in effect, but the latter has a weak effect; (3)Because of the unreasonable fiscal expenditure structure, the gross local government expenditure has crowing-in effects on urban residents’ consumption, but the effect is weak. The results shed some light on transformation of government function and restructuring fiscal expenditure in order to guide residents’ consumption and promote economic growth.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 122-126 [
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127
Institutional Reason and Solution for Middle Classes Stress in China
CHENG Yu feng, SONG Shu-li
The strong rise of middle classes is not only a basic defense line of harmonious society, but also an important characterization of developed society. The growing middle classes of China, however, face severe challenges of intense competition in employment, an high cost of living, great mental stress. The analysis of economic action shows that the institutional evolution, including the promotion of market system and educational popularization, is an important reason for middle classes’ mental stress. Proposal to release the middle classes’ mental stress is made.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 127-131 [
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132
AｎAnalysis of Virtual Currency Circulation and Government Regulation
YUE Yu-jun, WU Hong
Virtual currency promotes the development of e-commerce and virtual network economy for its convenience，but with problems and hidden dangers as well. The paper analyzes participants of virtual currency’s circulation and clarified the process with a circulation model and flow model of virtual currency. Regulatory options by government to virtual currency’s regulation of the present stage in terms of the virtual currency issuer’s admittance, cash reserves and rating institution is proposed.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 132-135 [
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136
Asymmetric Properties of Business Cycles in China
RAO Xiao-hui
This paper analyzes the asymmetric properties of business cycles with Clements and Krolzig’s parametric tests by investigating the partition method, persistence characteristics, and three types of asymmetry: deepness, steepness and sharpness. based on GDP growth rate data from 1979Q1 to 2009Q4 in China. The results show that non-deep and non-sharp property is not applicable to Chinese business cycle and Clements and Krolzig’s parametric tests strongly accept steepness; The probability of a low-growth regime followed by a high-growth regime is more likely than the probability of a low-growth regime preceded by a normal-growth regime. Finally, the duration for staying in the normal-growth is longest among three regimes.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 136-140 [
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141
A Study on the Key Impact Factors of Private Capital Investment in Regional Banks
REN Jia-song
The paper analyzes the questionair data on the principle of grey statistic by building gray cluster’s white function. 26 items of evulation selected to determine impact factors of private capital investment in regional banks with quantitive and qualitive methods for the development of private capital thory and evaluation.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 141-144 [
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145
A Study on Economies of Scope of Diversifiacation of China’s Security Companies
HUANG Ze-yong
This paper, based on GTCF, examines the scope economy of domestic security companies with businesses devicifation between 2006 and 2011. The empirical results show that the labor inputs and physical capital inputs have great impact on the operating costs of the security companies in term of both increasing returns to scale and decreasing brokerage business output. The economies of scope are prevalent in the domestic security companies. While, the scope economy of the large security companies is greater than small and medium-sized security companies.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 145-149 [
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150
Anchoring Effect in the Private Placement Pricing of the Listed Companies
YU Jun
The paper tests and explores the the determination process of price discount rate by 564 sample of Private placement with anchoring effect theory. The results show that the managers of Chinese listed companies have made some irrational decisions and have obvious behavioral deviation influenced by “Anchoring and Adjustments” when they determine the discount rate of private placement. Based on discount rate mean of private placement of the initial five listed companies(experimenter-provided anchors) and discount rate mean of private placement of the former group in all listed companies(self-generated anchors), the managers set the price with an obvious anchoring effect.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 150-155 [
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156
RMB Appreciation and Banking Crisis: Perspective from Currency Mismatch
JIANG Bai-ling, YE Wen-yu
This paper establishes a model of currency appreciation and banking crisis by annlyzing bank balance sheet. It is concluded that under the circumstance of home currency appreciation and the banking and its customers holding considerable net foreign currency assets, currency mismatches may cause the banking crisis with home currency appreciation . Empirical test indicates that currency mismatch and insolvency index of commercial banks have positive correlation, which indicates that currency mismatch has the negative influence on the stability of Chinese commercial banks.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 156-160 [
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161
A Research on the Evolution Mechanism of Banking’s Capital Efficiency in China under the Process of Marketization
LI Qiang, LIU Meng-fei
By stochastic frontier analysis, this paper examines the evolution of commercial banks capital efficiency in China under the market-oriented reform process in aspect of the market structure, corporate governance structure and macroeconomic environment. It is found that the capital efficiency of China’s commercial banks show no obvious upward trend with banking marketization. Market deregulation in the short term has a negative impact to the banking sector capital efficiency. The positive role of governance mechanisms have yet to be strengthened. It is proposed that China’s banking industy improve the corporate governance mechanism by establishing a fair and orderly competition environment for the further reform.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 161-165 [
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166
A Game Analysis of Going out of Sole Price Competition in China’s InsuranceMarket under the Change of Economic Development Pattern
SONG An-shun, MI Xiang-li
The paper analyzes China’s insurance market by the game theory. It is found that the competition in traditional insurance market is primarily charactered by sole price competition resulted from homogenization of insurance products. Variation competition with value added service insurance companies may avoid such a negative competion by continous product innovation.
2012 Vol. 1 (6): 166-171 [
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