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Economic Survey
 
2012 Vol.1 Issue.3
Published 2012-05-15

Original Articles
1 Setting of Production Function in Theories of Economic Growth and Its Application in China
LI Xue-lin, LI Jing
The paper studies the difference of production function in the economic growth theories,which indicates that setting of production function is the key to study economic growth. A model based on extended Leontief production function can better explain the tipical facts in China's economic growth.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 1-6 [Abstract] ( 4242 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 741KB] ( 2590 )
7 Formation Micro-Mechanism of State Capture in Transition Period of China——Based on Grounded Theory
LI Jian
Based on grounded theory, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of state capture from the micro-level according to the institutional theory, exchange theory and the behavioral theory of the firm by intensive interviews with business executives of captor firms. A new analytical framework of “institution-initiative-behavior-relationship” is built. The importance of “guanxi” in the formation of state capture is discussed with a summery of the reason characteristics of the state capture. This paper provides theoretical framework of state capture for both redesigning of regulatory reform and governing state capture.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 7-11 [Abstract] ( 3348 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1035KB] ( 2090 )
12 A Research on the Mechanism of Inflation Expectation in China
YU Guang-yao, FAN Jian-wei
Based on microdata on the survey of saving depositors in China, a resaech is made on the inflation expectations by methods of balance normal distribution probability、uniform distribution probability and losgistic distribution probability. and The formative mechanism of inflation expectations is tested . It is found that the mechanism depends on the distribution of expectation to price, which in turn will affect the measure or policy for the inflation control.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 12-16 [Abstract] ( 3742 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1024KB] ( 2185 )
17 Middle-Income Trap: International Experience and Implementation Approach
LU Wan-jun
With an analysis of China's economic structure, it is found that structural imbalance is the major obstacle to overcome middle income trap in China. The gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend makes it hard for China's leap to high imcome country. It is advised that income gap be narrowed by adjusting structural imbalance with the reform of income distribution in way of collective wage bargaining system, improved social security system together with fiscal and taxation policies.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 17-21 [Abstract] ( 3756 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1032KB] ( 2235 )
22 An analysis on Changing and Influencing Factors of Chinas Private Enterprise Labor Productivity——Based on the Empirical Research of the Data from 1998 to 2009
LI Jin-rong
An empirical research is made on the labor productivity changes of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, based on the time series data of state-owned and state holding industrial enterprises and private industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2009. It reveals that the labor productivity of private enterprises exceeded that of the state-owned enterprises'from 1998 to 2001. But a reverse case is found since 2002 due to the monopoly of state-owned enterprises, the R & D legbehind and insuffient HR management system of the private enterprises.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 22-25 [Abstract] ( 3660 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 667KB] ( 2791 )
26 A Research on the Inflation Effect on the Influctuation of Real Estate
XIA Cheng-bo, ZHUANG Yuan-yuan
As is known that inflation rate is greatly related with real estate yield. In order to test the effect of relation on the cycle of real estate in China, this paper researches the relationship between them in China with a markov regime model by setting three regimes of real estate cycle in China. It is found that the fluctuation of real estate in China depends on regimes; The expect part of inflation is significantly related with real estate yield in both “low speed regime and “medium speed regime”, with different directions; The cycle part of inflation significantly affects the real estate yield in all regimes with positive effects except in “high speed regime”. It shows that government policies may affcet the fluctuation of real estate.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 26-30 [Abstract] ( 4144 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1734KB] ( 2610 )
31 An Analysis on the Asymmetric Regional Effects of Internal Transmission of Unified Monetary Policy in China
HE Li-na,
Funds outstanding for foreign exchange has been the main channel for the People's Bank of China to put base monetary on the market. However, due to the imbalance of economic development and opening in different regions, base money has been put into regions unevenly. The developed region has higher ability to get base monetary and higher money multiplier than the underdeveloped region which cause asymmetric regional effects of the unified monetary policy in China. Theoretical and empirical analysis show that changes in the base money supply have the most powerful effect on monetary supply in the east developed region, next is the effect on monetary supply in the middle region ,and the least in the west region. To balance the regional money supply and promote the efficiency of monetary policy, regional difference should be taken into consideration when monetary policy is designed and implemented.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 31-35 [Abstract] ( 3822 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 868KB] ( 2109 )
36 An Empirical Study on the Mechanism GACH-X for Coordinated Development of Regional Economy
ZUO Zhen-yu, YE Chun-hua, ZHUANG Ya-ming
By the relationships among society, economy, resources and environment, this paper constructs the mechanism GACH-X for coordinated development of regional economy based on the internal mechanism of growth, dependence, competition and harmony. With structural equation model, this paper empirically studies on the mechanism by analising national regional economic data. The results show that growth, dependence, competition and harmony all have a positive relationship with coordinated development of regional economy.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 36-39 [Abstract] ( 3791 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 705KB] ( 2169 )
40 Regional Employment Changes and Differences of Affecting Factors during Industrial Transfer——Based on 1999~2007 Provincial Panel Data
GUO Li,
A research is made on the changes of regional employment in China based on industrial transfer, and the regional differences of the factors affecting employment with the provincial panel data from 1999 to 2007. It shows a β convergence of employment among China with industry transfer and labor return.Fixed investment promotes employment rate in Midwest more greatly than in East. Midwest’s FDI to GDP increases rapidly, opening degree and investment environment improves significantly, which effectively promotes employment. The proportion of tertiary industry is positively correlated with employment only in East shows that East's tertiary industry can efficiently stimulate employment, and Midwest still mainly rely on manufacturing sector. Compared to Midwest's government-driven features, East region rely more on private investment.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 40-44 [Abstract] ( 3926 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 816KB] ( 2178 )
45 An Empirical Research on US Dollar, Oil and Metal Prices Based on VAR Model
HUANG Jian-bo, CHENG Hui, GUO Yao-qi, SHAO Liu-guo
In recent years, it is known that the US dollar depreciation and oil price escalation may account for nonferrous metal price soaring. This paper analyzes the interrelationship amomg nonferrous metal prices, US dollar value and oil price based on VAR models. It is suggested that gold and silver price increase significantly aginst US dollar depreciation.Though the price fluctuation of US dollar, oil, gold and silver may lead to a obvious impact on China's copper price, none of them mainly account for China's copper price escalation. Measures to avoid metals prices fluctuation caused by external factors is proposed.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 45-49 [Abstract] ( 3958 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 698KB] ( 3039 )
50 An Impact Study on the Relationship between Housing Price and Urbanization
CHANG Liang, JIA Jin-rong
Based on the analysis of the rigid demand between urbanization and housing price and with the concept of comprehensive urbanization level, the study analyzes urbanization impact on housing price by establishing a fixed effect variable coefficient model and exploring the urbanization development problems caused by housing price escalation. Itconcludes that the active impact of urbanization on housing price is related to the coordination degree of each other together with the city scales. Moreover the housing price elasticity with urbanization is increasing. It is an advisable option to develop medium and small cities to adjust the unbalanced and polarized development route of the urbanization against housing price escalation and urbanization
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 50-54 [Abstract] ( 3816 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 833KB] ( 2432 )
55 The Comparison Analysis of Productive Efficiency between State-Owned and Non-State-Owned Industry Enterprises——Based on 2008 China Economic Census data
MU Jun-lin
Based on 2008 China Economic Census data, this paper analyzes the difference of productive efficiency between stateowned (SOE) and non-state-owned (NSOE) enterprises. OLS estimation shows that the difference of productive efficiency between SOE and NSOE decreases from 100%~400% in 1995 to 17%~36% in 2008. Stochastic Frontier estimation shows that the difference of technology inefficiency between SOE and NSOE decreases from 22%~57% in 1995 to 9%~21%, and the difference of technology efficiency is between 2.1% and 6.3%. Hence, the productive efficiency of SOE has been improved remarkably. But the scale expansion and monopolization may mainly account for such a change. The productive efficiency of SOE is still 10% lower than that of NSOE in competition industry.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 55-59 [Abstract] ( 4084 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 739KB] ( 2531 )
60 Building up the National Value Chain for China’s Rare Earth Industry to Break Free the Captive Global Value Chain
XU Yi-ming
China's rare earth industry, one of its absolutely resource advantaged heading industries, is trapped in weak, disorderly and backward situation for long time and unable to be turned into national competitiveness. China's rare earth industry chain is subject to the depressive lower-reach end consumption.The traditional research methods fail to explain convincingly the essential limiting elements owing to the peculiarity of the industry. The paper, with the value chain theory analyzes how China's rare earth industry is caught in the captive GVC and holding back its industry chain promotion It is proposed that China build up a national value chain (NVC) to break the GVC captive mode, with devopment strategic roadmaps and approaches for the optimum development of China's rare earth industry.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 60-64 [Abstract] ( 3646 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 985KB] ( 2654 )
65 An Analysis of the Effects of OFDI on China’s Foreign Trade
HU Zhao-ling, SONG Ping
The effects of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on China’s foreign trade is disscussed. theoretically, there is no definite conclusion concerning the relationship between FDI and foreign trade. This paper analyzes the mechanism through which OFDI affects import and export. In light of the panel data covering 105 countries (regions) during 1993~2009, a positive research is conducted on OFDI on China's foreign trade with panel Granger causality test based on panel VAR model. It is found that there is two-way Granger causality between China's OFDI and export, and the same relationship exists between China’s OFDI and import; OFDI has trade creating effects on China’s import and export, though the effects are still limited. Therefore, China should actively develop OFDI and promote benign interaction between OFDI and foreign trade.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 65-69 [Abstract] ( 3865 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 848KB] ( 2277 )
70 The Measurement and Determinant of the Bilateral Service Trade Costs between China and G-7——Based on Revised Gravity Model
MA Ling-Yuan
The measurement and determinants of China's bilateral service trade cost can be better explained for the service trade flow, which has important policy implications for China’s service trade opening. With the revised gravity model, this paper measures the bilateral service trade cost between China and G-7 countries during 1999~2007 by analyzing the panel data to seek the influence factors of China’s Foreign Service trade cost. It is shown that the bilateral service trade cost between China and G-7 is decreasing with a signs of acceleration of such decreasing after China’s join in the WTO; Space distance and service trade barriers are the main cause of bilateral service trade cost. Per capita income difference and common land and sea borders contributes to reduce the bilateral service trade cost whereas the impact of common trade group on the service trade cost is not obvious.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 70-74 [Abstract] ( 4004 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 772KB] ( 2297 )
75 An Empirical Research on Influencing Factors of the FDI in Six Provinces in Middle China and Countermeasures Choice
XU Li-ming
The paper analyzes the dynamic changes of influencing factors of the FDI in six provinces in middle China with the panel data model for 1993~2003 and 2004~2009. The finding indicates that in the foreseeable future progressive FDI、basic facilities、market scale、cost advantage of labor force,market degree, human capital will be important factors which have positive influence on the FDI in six provinces in middle China.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 75-79 [Abstract] ( 4241 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 821KB] ( 2877 )
80 An Empirical Analysis of Human Capital Influnce on China’s Service Trade Export Based on VAR Model
WANG Ming-yi ,
Based on an empirical analysis of human capital influence on the service trade export, it is found that there is a high demand on human capital with the rapid growth of service trade export whereas the existing human capital in China has a less obvious contribution margin to the growth of service trade. It is a key concern to improve the quality of China’s human capital to strengthen China’s international competition in the world service trade.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 80-84 [Abstract] ( 3914 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 687KB] ( 2590 )
90 Stock Options、Institutional Environment and Earnings Management——Based on the Empirical Analysis on Listed Company Data
SONG Wen-ge, RONG Hua-xu
An empirical study is made on the relationship between stock options and earning management by processing the data of listed companies at Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2006 to 2008. It shows that the number of stock options and the degree of earnings management are positively related wheras the exercise restriction period is negatively correlated with the degree of earnings management. Meanwhile, the effect of earnings management after stock options in the state-owned companies is more significant than that of non-stated-owned companies; the effect of earnings management after stock options in the high degree marketization areas is weaker than the low degree marketization areas. In addition, high quality external audit effectively reduces the extent of earnings management.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 90-94 [Abstract] ( 3659 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 781KB] ( 2092 )
95 CSR, Corporate Governance and Corporate Performance
Yang Bo-jian
This paper tests the effect of fulfillment social responsibility of listed companies and the performance with social responsibility Index of listed companies prepared by the Shanghai National Accounting Institute. Finding shows that the implementation of social responsibility may not necessarily enhance the performance. However, a furher examining of the variables of corporate governance such as the size of board of directors, proportion of independent directors reveals that implementation of social responsibility will lead to a raising finance performance and growth. It is arugued that a sound corperate governance and a stratedgic plan with CSR is a must for a positive effect of corperate performance
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 95-99 [Abstract] ( 4016 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 584KB] ( 2388 )
100 Function Category and Function Orientation of a Board ——A Dynamic Matching Model and Evidence from China
WU Jiong
A board undertakes two types of functions, the essential functions and the original functions. The essential functions reflects that board is a kind of organization structure system to implement corporate governance. Meanwhile, the practical board has original functions, namely constituting decision and protecting benefits of main risk undertakers. Moreover, the dynamic matching between them confirms various orientation of corporate governance. These opinions have been proved by evidence from China. The empirical study found that excellent performance companies are more consistent with the function orientation principle than financial distress companies.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 100-105 [Abstract] ( 3692 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 948KB] ( 2104 )
106 Empirical Study on Spillover of Rural Human Capital and the Urban-rural Resident’s Income Gap in China
LONG Cui-hong, HONG Yin-xing
This paper studies the impact of spillover of rural human capital on urban-rural income gap in China by co-integration test and ECM. The result indicates that massive spillover of human capital in rural areas of China may account for widening income gap between urban and rural residents, which would in turn lead to the spillover of human capital of rural areas; transferring rural labor force is not the sufficient condition to narrow the urban-and rural resident's income gap because of the spillover of rural human capital. Effective measures is a must to make the best use of rural human capital to narrow the gap.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 106-110 [Abstract] ( 4431 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 729KB] ( 2167 )
111 The Agricultural Product Price Escalation not Leading to the CPI Rising——Based on the Input-output Price Model
GUO Zhen, ZHANG Dong-ping
Based on the annual input-output table for 2007,this paper analyzes the correlation effects between agriculture and other industries by testing The price impact on CPI of various stctors. It is found that the rising of the agricultural product price is not the essential factor to push CPI high . The price escalation of natural resources sectors and energy comsuption sectors mainly account for the soaring impact for CPI and the agricultural product as well.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 111-115 [Abstract] ( 3742 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 804KB] ( 2152 )
116 A research on Take-back Mode of Closed-loop Supply Chain with Pull Inventory Strategy
LV Jun
Under the pressure of Extended Producer Responsibility system, manufacturers take back and establish closed-loop supply chain. The paper analyzes the cost structure in the CLSC system, pooled-take-back mode and third-party-take-back mode together with manufacturer’s profits and product pricing. It is found that the holding cost rate of returns inventory has little influence on the choice of take-back mode, the key factor is the parameterof demand price function. The manufacturer take-back mode is preferred if greater than 2. The mode of Pooled Take-back is preferred if less than 2.The feasibility and effectiveness of is verified.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 116-120 [Abstract] ( 3598 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 638KB] ( 2277 )
146 A Spatial Econometrics Examination on the Relationship between China’s Fiscal Decentralization and Provincial Economic Growth
WANG Hai-nan, CUI Chang-bin
With the help of geographically weighted regression method,by analyzing China's provincial economic statistics data from 2000 to 2009, this paper investigates the relationship between fiscal decentralization and provincial economic growth in China. The result indicates that there is significant spatial correlation among China's provincial economy. Although quadri-curve relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth is partly confirmed, it appears obvious difference both in different provinces and different years,which results in frequent change of optimal fiscal decentralization degree. For each province,more data is needed to conform reasonable range of fiscal decentralization degree.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 146-150 [Abstract] ( 3702 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 772KB] ( 2327 )
151 Financial Market Development, Consolidation of the Two Taxes and Capital Structure
TANG Ying-mei, HUANG Ming-feng, LI Fu-lai
The paper studies the impact of consolidation of the two taxes on capital structure by sampling the listed companies with difference-in-difference model and multiple regression analysis method. Further analysis is made on the different characteristics of imbalanced financial market development influence on the capital structure. It shows that the firm's libility decreases singnificantly with a decresing tax rate. In a perfectly developed financial market, tax rate change has a singnificant impact on frim’s libility.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 151-155 [Abstract] ( 3583 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 729KB] ( 2247 )
156 The Empirical Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations Impact on Macroeconomic Running
CHEN An
The reforms of RMB exchange rate system, implemented in 1994, 2005 and 2010, have significant impacts on China's macroeconomic. Based on such a background, this paper, with SVAR method empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables during January 1995-February 2011, and the dynamic transmission mechanism of exchange rate shocks. It shows that the appreciation of the RMB gives negative effects to the growth of net export and real output, which leads to an increasing money supply but conducive to controlling inflation in China. A wider floating range, directional floating mechanism, and consumption stimulating policies be proposed to improve the economic effect of RMB appreciation.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 156-161 [Abstract] ( 3641 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 994KB] ( 2281 )
162 An Analysis on Behavior of Fund Manager under Three Periods Model Based on Noise trade and Limited Arbitrage
LU Jiang-chuan, CHEN Jun
In terms of two constraints (noise trade and limited arbitrage), this paper structures a model based on the three periods framework used by Shleifer and Vishny(1997), to analyzes the behavior difference between the fund managers who have different expected horizons. The results argue that no matter wether investor sentiment runs downward or upward, the behavior of short run fund manager is harmful to fund investors, while the behavior of long run fund manager is benefit for fund investors due to the long run expectation; fund investors can identify the expectation horizon from the behavior and position in period 1 of fund managers..
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 162-166 [Abstract] ( 3347 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 545KB] ( 2062 )
167 Does the stock index future decrease volatility of Stock market?
QIAN Li, HU Yuan-cheng
The paper analyzes the influence of introduction of stock index future for stock market with GARCH model,an optimal one for the analysis of the volatility of variance of financial data. The daily return of HS300 index is sampled with an estimation of the change of stock market's volatility by introduction of stock index future. It is concluded that the stock index future will decrease the volatility of spot market.
2012 Vol. 1 (3): 167-170 [Abstract] ( 3474 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 611KB] ( 2122 )
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